Monday, August 12, 2013
New Idea's/Thoughts
I just wanted to say LET XC BEGIN!!! I know many of you have just started your first week of XC camp which was always extremely exciting for me... even though it often lead me to a pain pill addiction for two weeks and often left me unable to walk... The comrodery and friendship gained from XC camp weeks are often ones you will carry for the rest of your lives. Enjoy it and really get after these runs! "August miles make October Smiles" is what my coach always said.
Here is a list of my recent idea's for the blog and posts that will begin soon.
1. Top 10 meets of the year preview. I will discuss why they are important, and I will be writing a report on each one of the meets course's before they happen to help put times in perspective.
2. Viking has changed it's course to Richboro, PA (the town I live in). I will be contacting the Archbishop Wood coach to see if I can get the course lay-out sent to me so I can run the new course and write up a preview for that meet as well (if it's not on the top 10).
3. I would like to have some seniors contact me about writing journals or doing interviews. I'd be looking to have journals every 3 weeks to a month or interviews every month-ish. I'd prefer to have seniors, but if you are an upper classman that works as well. I will discuss with you what questions I'd like answered, and I would make sure not too much is revealed in terms of training, ect. I'd like to have people from different districts as well. Please add me on facebook or send me an e-mail at fk246898@muhlenberg.edu if you are interested in doing this. I think it would spice up the blog a little bit. I'm not looking for just medal contenders, I think it's good to hear from you guys in general, so don't feel as though a specific skill level is involved.
4. Prediction Contests: If you guys don't know this already, I'm obsessed with Flotrack.org. I think there website is fantastic and gets a lot of things right. They often do prediction contests and I'd like to have a couple on here. If you post your name and get it correct I will do my best to send you a small prize :)
That being said the first prediction contest:
-Henderson's Top 7 @ States and the Order that they come in. Here is my list (you don't need their place in the race, just their place on the team).
1. Tony Russell
2. Reiny Barchet
3. Seamus Collins
4. Eric Stratman
5. Alex Knapp
6. Gordy Barchet
7. Ricky Watlz
(heard Haugh is done running)
That's all for Now Folks!
--ForrestCRN
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Henderson::
ReplyDelete1. Russell
2. Barchet
3. Knapp
4. Collins
5. Stratman
6. The other Barchet (Gordy)
7. Moy
1-Barchet
ReplyDelete2-Russell
3-Moy
4-Collins
5-Knapp
6-Stratman
7-Waltz
You can't keep a 4:17, 9:34 out of the varsity.
what are your predictions on Henderson's top jv times? do you think they have a sub 16 jv on the team?
ReplyDeleteHmmmm, at Lehigh if they do what they did last year (which I wouldn't be surprised; aka rest some of varsity for states) I could see them having Kevin Moy breaking 16. I see him as more of a track runner. To my knowledge he's never broken 16:30 for 5k. I get he had a massive breakout track season, but I don't see his running style translating that well to tough XC courses. That being said his 1600m time transfers pretty easily to a sub 16 flat time at Lehigh, even if he isn't that good of an XC runner. It's a flat course.
Delete--ForrestCRN
1.Russell
ReplyDelete2.Barchet
3.Knapp
4.Stratman
5.Collins
6.Moy
7.Waltz
-And actually, I think Moy could be their 4th guy.
1.Russell
ReplyDelete2.Stratman
3.Knapp
4.R.Barchet
5.Collins
6.Moy
7.G Barchet
1. Russell
ReplyDelete2. Barchet
3. Collins
4. Stratman
5. Moy (9:34 3200 last spring)
6. Haugh (if he runs)
7. Knapp
As for sub-16 JV, Henderson rested three runners at Districts last year. If they rest 2-3 runners this year at Districts, then they will not have any sub-16 runners on JV
So Haugh is out? Is he hurt or did he just quit?
ReplyDeleteHope the kid is ok, but Henderson should still be in very good shape.
I wouldn't classify Moy as "not that good of an xc runner", I think any team in the state would be thrilled to have him(mine would)and I think his mid-distance track strength will translate quite nicely to xc. Guess we'll have to wait & see.
1-Russell
2-Stratman
3-Barchet
4-Moy
5-Knapp
6-Collins
7-Waltz
Haugh is out and now does crew instead.
DeleteHenderson doesn't have a rowing program, does it?
DeleteIt looks like Henderson has 9 guys who could break 16:00. That would be 2 jv guys/ Doubtful that they do it in the jv race at Districts, but if they rest some guys at Districts, it's a possibility. That's the only fast course that they run on. Haugh quit. The guy who put Reiny as 4th man is insane. He's a great xc runner.
ReplyDeleteAgree @ Barchet-he's definitely their #1 or #2 guy. Also agree with poster who disagrees with you saying Moy isn't that good. How can you say that? He probably is the guy on that team with the most range, including xc.
ReplyDeleteMoy and Russell have good range with Moy leaning more towards the mid & Russell leaning more distances.
DeleteIt's "camaraderie", not comrodery. They have this thing called spell check-look into it.
ReplyDeleteNo nead to hate, we all make mysteaks. It's jaust part uv lief.
DeleteTo answer the Haugh questions...I am a good friends with Haugh. He will not be running cross country nor has any intention of making a come back. He will be pursuing crew.
ReplyDeleteRussell
ReplyDeleteMoy
Barchet, R.
Stratman
Collins
Waltz
Barchet G.
I hope these guys have taken some time off and are starting slowly. They’re coming off a long season so they could use some rest. This team has the potential to be one of the best PA teams ever.
Russell has got to be looking forward to getting back on the dirt, grass and hills where he’s able to run the kick out of some of the speedsters.
I could see Russell, Barchet and Moy being the consistent top 3 and then Stratman, Collins being a solid 4-5. Waltz, G Barchet, Knapp and who knows who else fighting for the last two spots. One of them will likely drop down with Stratman and Collins, I’d guess it would be Waltz.
I’m surprised to hear Haugh is giving it up, especially after what he did at states last year. This would be a team most guys would want to be a part of. If it’s true, perhaps he’s found a new passion.
I think Moy is being very underrated here. The guy had a huge breakout season. 1:55, 4:16, 9:34. On just about any other team he’d be getting more notice and not be so overshadowed, but this is Henderson. His 800/mile are outstanding and his 9:34 3200 at Chesmonts I heard included destroying the field with a 63 last quarter, which means he likely could have gone much lower in a faster paced race, which makes me believe he definitely has the range for XC.
Hopefully they all stay healthy!
-RJJL
Knapp is also underrated. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in that top 3. #6-7 will likely shift throughout the season with Moy, Waltz, G. Barchet and Swart.
DeleteHow much depth does Henderson have? Is this year the end of that dynasty for them?
1.Russell
ReplyDelete2.R. Barchet
3.Stratman
4.Collins
5.Moy
6.G. Barchet
7.Knapp
Now that that is out of the way, anybody care to talk about any team besides Henderson?
Unless there are multiple injuries, Henderson will win the state championship and go on to compete for the National.
ReplyDeleteSo who is number two?
The two leading teams are Cardinal O'Hara and North Allegheny. Below are list of expected top five with adjusted times from last year. (5K times are from last year's state XC championship. For those runner who did not run in at states, I compared their times to a teammate who did. For example, Morro ran 51 seconds slower than Kevin James at Great American, so I assumed he would have run 51 seconds slower at states).
Other times are 3200m and 1600m times from last Spring. Of course I don't know who got hurt and who took the winter off (so were behind on their training)
COH
James - 16:28/9:14/4:18
Belfatto - 16:46/9:31
Donnelly - 17:11/10:10/4:47
D. Pastore - 17:04/10:08/4:51
Morro - 17:19/9:57
NA
Locuo - 16:47/9:29:4:29
Seel - 16:48
McGoey - 16:59/9:23
Chang - 17:22/4:35
McClure - 17:34/10:32
It appears that COH is a little faster top to bottom. However all of NA runner have experience on the Hershey course. So I am thinking NA slightly over COH.
There are several other teams that could compete for the number 2 slot, but need a lot of improvement from their number 4 and 5 runners. These include Great Valley, West Chester East, Lower Dauphin, Fox Chapel, and CRN.
So what do you think?
Of the teams you've listed LD and GV probably have the best chance. They simply graduated less varsity runners in 2013. WCE and CRN lost a lot of good guys and may not be able to replace them to repeat their team performances of last year. Fox Chapel has possibly the most upside as the can improve a lot 3-5, but also have the least to improve from their top 2. Its unlikely they even improve from the 10 pts the Martins scored last year.
DeleteI thought this was a PA blog not just a "how great is Henderson blog." Who cares who their 1-7 are. They're the favorite this year but everybody roots for the underdog. So who's it going to be? Ohara? They can do it and they're due. James and Belfatto will rally those younger guys and they run at Belmont regularly. I'll root for anyone who conquers Parachute every week. North Allegheny? A model of consistency and they're due too, plus they're returning more than Ohara on paper. Great Valley? They always peak at the right time but do they have enough? Any team with a Willig has a shot, right? LD? Sure, why not? WCEast? Cummings & Diestelow are one of the best 1-2 combos out there and they're strong through four with Dages and Dougherty...can they find a 5th, who knows but they have a very talented crop of Freshman coming. CRN? They have the talent and good coaching. Fox Chapel? The potential is there...but is potential enough? Let's get this thing going and hey, don't be afraid to root for the underdog!
DeleteUm, if you look at the topic for this particular posting it specifically addresses Henderson, with the promise of more posts a la Flotrack to follow. Agree it's time to post a new subject, but chill. And your from WCE, right?
Delete"You're" not "your".
DeleteWCE is the only team in the state with the talent to upset Henderson.
DeleteAlright if we are going to have ass holes making unfounded accusations calling runners from other schools conceited, then anonymous commenting needs to be disabled. It's disgraceful of you to single out one team in an attempt to make them look bad, that's not in the spirit of the blog at all.
DeleteFirstly, I don't think anyone said any runners were conceited. The second commenter was simply angry that all of us bloggers were basically locking in WCH for the title and wanted a subject change.
DeleteSecondly, if you're angry at people posting bad anonymous comment, say who you are. You are demeaning your own argument.
I could not give any less shits what WCH top 7 is going to be.
ReplyDeleteSo how is DWest or DEast going to do? Who are their top 7?
DeleteDwest top five is Mucha, Pelcin, Farrell, Alansky, and White. However they had a very strong JV last year, so the names will likely change. Keep an eye on Sappey, who had a strong freshman year last year. I think DWest has a chance at making states again, but I think Penncrest is a little better.
DeleteAs for DEast, I would expect big things from Billy Caldwell. However, they don't have the runner at #4 and #5 to make states. Top five could be Caldwell, Fitzgerald, O'Reilly, Broms, and Helm.
I'm not seeing it with DWest.
DeleteKennett and Rustin will surprise out of Chestmonts.
DeleteRustin has a good front runner I remember from his freshman year, I'm not sure what happened to him though. Kennett has a solid 1 and 2. I'm not sure how much deeper though.
ReplyDeleteWhen does this Henderson prediction thing end? Do we get to see how their season opener goes or is this a before-the-first-meet thing?
-RTJ
I was planning on having it end at the start of the first meet. Plus I'll have another prediction contest before then. I'm keeping all the predictions in a word document and we can always go back and check this in November to see the winner. Most of the prediction contests will be just a day or two later, but I figure not many people are checking the blog now since it's the summer.
DeleteFor those who contacted me about the journals I really appreciate it and keep them coming. I will be sending out a message to all of you very soon with the details and questions, ect. I will be sure to edit out anything I feel is too revealing.
--ForrestCRN
I would keep an eye on Avon Grove in Chesmonts. They beat both Rustin and Kennett at Districts and have 6 of 7 varsity runners returning.
DeleteCan PA grad Ryan Whiting get a shout out for winning silver at worlds?
ReplyDeleteJust some thoughts from what I've seen so far.
ReplyDelete1) The only real contenders to come out of the chesmont league will be Henderson, WCE, and GV. Maybe we see D-town west have a decent year but I don't see a lot happening there. Rustin lost Chris Coates who was there only good runner. Kennet has a nice 1-2 but after that there's a huge drop off. I don't much about Avon Grove and maybe they'll put together a decent season but there are D1 teams that have a much better squad then them (which leads me to my next point).
2) Assuming we put CRN, WCE, GV, and WCH through to states there is only one spot remaining. Right now I give it to Penncrest but there are still other teams that I think contend for that final spot. Pennridge, Tennent, and Conestoga return decent enough squads to possibly beat Penncrest. Those are teams that have a chance to shine so keep an eye on them.
3) I say Jake Brophy makes a massive improvement on his already stellar freshman year and I see him top 10 at states and maybe even in contention for top 5 placement. Call me crazy but I think we're gonna see big things from him.
Avon Grove was at XC Camp with Henderson and DTW. They looked good. They have a nice sophomore class. They're probably a year away from contending for a States spot, but they'll be tough. DTW and DTE will be just OK. DTW has a really good freshmen class, but that won't show for a couple of years. The Henderson guys seem to be a little behind last year. They probably started a little later after NBON. Ches-Mont could have 5 in the top ten at Districts and 3 in the top 6 at States.
DeleteThe O'Hara vs. NA battle should be a good one. James has a good shot to win. He's a ballsy kid. Both teams run tough on that course. If Henderson is looking ahead to NXN, they could get upset at States by either of these teams. When do those three teams open? Will they meet before States?
Chesmonts was ridiculously deep last year. At Districts they took 4 of the top 5 teams, 11 of the top 25 individual spots. This year may be deeper.
DeleteChesmonts should be WCH, WCE, GV, DTW, Kennett, Rustin, Avon Grove, Unionville, DTE, Oxford, Coatesville, Octorara, Sun Valley.
DeleteSo who is going to states from outside District 1? District 3? District 7?
ReplyDeleteIf the question is from outside District 1, 3 and 7?, my guesses would be State College (D6), Abington Heights (D2), Cardinal O'Hara (D12), Freedom (D11), Cathedral Prep (D10), and Carrick (D8) if they go.
DeleteDistricts 4, 5, and 9 don't get a team.
First of all, why is Kevin Moy not included in the top 7 predictions? Yeah he's more of a track guy but he's also a state medalist who beat his own teammate who is the XC state champion. Moy has a breakout XC season, that's what I'm saying. Also can we talk about more than just District 1 and NA? I think this will be a good year for District 3. LD is easily the favorite to win at districts, but I think there could definitely be some surprise teams out of D3 to come this year.
ReplyDeleteFor D3,
Delete1. LD
2. Wilson
3. Dallastown
4. Hempfield
5. Carlisle
6. Cumberland Valley
This is laughable. You obviously looked at the district 3 results from last year and copy pasted based on how many people were returning. Zero research.
DeleteI'm from D1 but I'll give my best insight.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Lower Dauphin taking first but I might also argue Dallastown taking 2nd and Carlisle moving up to 4th. Then there is one team who I think will be underrated heading into the season. That is Twin Valley. The Geary brothers, Josh Coackley and Kris Lizins are their core 4. I'm not saying they'll win the district but they may surprise a few people. Here's my team ranking for D3.
1.LD
2.Dallastown
3.Wilson
4.Carlise
5.Hempfield
6.Twin Valley
Moving on to the individuals I see 4 guys in the running (pun intended) for the title. Groh, Nissley, Reily, and Brehm. I think Demko, Gatchell and Gebhart are just a year off from contending when you put them in this front running field. For me it comes down to Groh and Brehm. Sure Reily had an amazing finish for 2nd at D3 last year, but that was when Groh was struggling (with whatever that may have been) and when Brehm wasn't a 4:09 miler. In the end, I give it to Groh for the win but Brehm will thrive off of a fast pace at States and beat Groh there. If Groh is smart he'll try to push the pace on his own and try to take out the leg speed in Brehm.
D3 districts
1.Groh
2.Brehm
3.Nissley
4.Reily
5.Gebhart
6.Gatchell
Let the criticism begin
I'm not sure how you see Dallastown jumping ahead of all these teams from 10th last year, especially with the big 4 to 5 gap from last year. I think Wilson will be top 4 along with LD, Carlisle, and then there's going to be a huge tight race for 4th between: Hempfield, CV, Red Land, Cedar Crest, Twin Valley and Dallastown.
DeleteAt this point its probably too tight to call the order.
It's a good prediction, but I say Brehm wins it. Plus in terms of team results Carlisle could finish higher than 4th. They had two seniors in their top 7 last year and then had a state medaling 4 by 800 team that had one senior on it as well. If their guys ran some good mileage this summer than it's possibly for a Carlisle upset. I don't think it'll happen, but it is possible. Wilson and Dallastown are pretty much in the same boat with returners. It's all a matter of how much their team trained over the summer so we won't truly know until the end of September.
DeleteCumberland Valley gets the last spot. Their a big school and will always find a way to be good.
DeleteDo not underestimate Gebhart. The kid is a stud. All he has ever done is improve. I think he will be right up there with Brehm at districts. Not saying he'll beat him, but he will be right with him.
Delete1:Brehm
2:Gebhart
3:Groh
4:Reilly
5:Lauer (I think he suprises people this year)
And finally District 7, first three teams seems to be set with a battle for fourth between Plum, Bethel Park, and Pittsburgh Catholic. Hampton could surprise too if they get some help. So the teams are;
ReplyDelete1. North Allegheney
2. Fox Chapel
3. Mount Lebanon
4. Plum
5. Bethel Park
6. Pittsburgh Catholic
Individual could go like this;
1. Kennedy
2. E. Martin
3. C. Martin
4. McGoey
5. Love
6. Louco
7. Sloan
8. Martinez
9. Seel
10. Susallan
I hate to disagree with people, but only the first two teams for the WPIAL are set. Being from Lebo's section, I know that they are losing more than you think and probably won't be what they usually are. Watch for them to be overtaken this year. By what team? I don't know exactly, but I'll put my money on Bethel Park. They had a young group of guys last year who knew how to race and turn it on when they needed to and that should extend into this year as well as they improve.
DeleteAgree that Lebo lost a bunch of seniors, but they seem to have a strong JV last year. Bethel Park should be strong with most of the team returning from last year.
DeleteOne team I am not sure of is Plum. They have one runner (Amori) that runs 17 one race and 20 the next. With four strong runners, Plum could also sneak up on people.
I really can't see Bethel Park taking down Lebo. Yes, they do return 4(?) of their top 7, but those 7 topped off at 18:09. From PennTrack, Mt. Lebo's top 7 this year (judging by times from last year), ran 16:27-17:38. Bethel Park's ran 16:57-18:34. They are going to need to move that pack up A TON to take down Mt. Lebanon. I can see Bethel being a great team in a couple of years, as several of their top runners last year were freshman and sophomores, but not this year.
DeleteI think Bethel Park has to prove they can do it first. They had a nice pack last year, but have only qualified one individual in the last three years. Lebo has the tradition and the expectation of making states, plus the experience. I root for the underdog and wouldn't mind seeing some new blood make it from the wpial. It will be interesting to see if BP can make it to the next level.
DeleteYes, BP does need to prove it and Coach A from Mt. Lebo has proven throughout the years that he is one of, if not the, best coach in the State. He knows how to make something out of nothing. But I think there's another team you are forgetting about. Kiski Area. On PennTrack, Brent Kennedy mentioned that his team is looking pretty formidable this year and they are returning most of their top 7 but they need to develop a number 5 that could end up being his little brother Eric. I would really like to see Brent go to states with his team because he is one heck of a competitor and he deserves to have a good team behind him.
DeletePeople talk about D1/O'Hara/NA/Lebo because they are the powerhouses of XC. D1, O'Hara/NA/lebo have dominated XC for over a decade. The only time they didn't win XC states was '01 and '04, both of which were won by cedar cliff. Besides that, I don't even know. I'm not saying only those teams SHOULD be talked about, I'm just saying that's WHY those teams are talked about constantly.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
D1 is far and away the toughest district and it's not even close. D1 really should be split because it's not fair. Too many talented, hard working runners don't go to state even though the meet the track SQS or because they're limited to 25 + teams in XC.
ReplyDeleteD1 should definitely be broken up in XC and track. I can think of many runners in D1 that could have made the finals at States for track, or would have done well at XC states, but since they were in D1 they didn't even make it to states. One sort-of-off day can ruin your chances for States in D1 AAA and it's unfair when other districts can send a 53/2:07/4:30/9:50/17 minutes to States. It is what it is though and it won't change. A benefit of being in D1 is that you face so much more competition and are more ready for States (this is more for track). Take a look at States for track every year, it is dominated by D1 in boys and girls. D7 would be the closest competition. In XC it's a bit different, but D1 still runs it. Best three teams in the States for girls were D1 and for boys 3/5 were D1.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
A 4:23 miler didn't get to go to states, two 9:30 3200 guys missed out as did a 1:57 flat 800. Many runner make getting to states their season goal. That's just not fair.
DeleteAny new posts soon Forrest? How about an XC talk of the teams or something.
ReplyDeleteAlso one idea I had is promoting this blog. I think a lot of people aren't sure that this blog is out there. How about creating a twitter and/or facebook page and following/friending some of the runners around the state. A twitter account would let people know when a new post is up, when a good debate is developing, and giving updates on meets from what you know! Anyone else like this idea?