Marine Corps Holiday Classic
Sam Ritz entered the open 800m late in order to battle the 1:50 man John
Lewis. The race couldn't have played out better with Lewis opening up the race
in 55.6 with Ritz following up in 56.2. Lewis continued to hold the race until
the final stretch where Ritz slowly overtook him to finish in 1:52.81 to Lewis’
1:52.88 (Ritz’ final splits 56.2/56.5). These two guys are clearly continuing
the 800m prowless that we have seen from PA runners in recent years. As I
posted on Etrain’s blog last night, this is what everyone wanted to see 3 years
ago from Magaha/Willig. Throwing down a 4:14 and 1:52 in December from someone
like Ritz is just crazy and the 4:12.61 and 1:51.73 indoor state meet records
look to be under real threat if Ritz wants to go after it. Tony Russell came up
just short (.04) last season and it shows just how difficult the solo race can
be. Now, if he can battle a healthy Jaxson Hoey, who ran 4:17 indoors last
season, he might have better encouragement, or potentially Kevin James will
race the Mile. Lewis has been teasing mid-distance fans over the past 2 years
by running fantastic times during the regular season, but refusing to run the
800m at States. If he and Ritz go after the race together we could see Endress’
800m meet record fall, but Lewis seems like such a clear favorite in the open
400 (He’ll probably run 47.8ish) that I’d be shocked if he didn’t choose this
route again.
Penn Wood’s runners didn’t have as much success as anticipated with Ahmere
Ponzo running 2:01.47, which is still a pretty solid time, although banked,
early in the season. His teammate Dennis Manyeah ran 2:05.72. In the ‘regular’
800, Cheltenham runners had more success with Kyle Davis placing second with a
time of 2:01.26 and Isaiah Watts running 2:05.22. Could this team bring some
success to the 4x8? With an anchor like Lewis if they can get one more solid leg
8 flat seems like a solid possibility.
Speaking of 4x8’s, PA’s Central League dominated the relay race at the Corps
Classic. Penncrest took the win in 8:08.73 (by 4 seconds) and Strath Haven
placed 3rd in 8:12.97. Both teams look to go low 8’s by the end of
the season. I love Penncrest’s combo of Evan Emanuel and Soham Kamat. They also
return Brendan Hanna (2:02.47 - open) and Colin Tyson (2:04.00 – open) from
last season and I think this team will be better than their 7:50.80 outdoor
time last season (outdoors) and indoors breaking 8 seems like a real
possibility. Strath Haven has done some fantastic things in the past with their
4x8’s, but they’ve been very average (8:10’s) in recent years. Maybe this will
be their breakout squad.
If anyone has relay splits please post them!
Robert J. Burdette Indoor Classic
800m
As predicted the 800m meet record of 1:58.20 fell not just to one, but two
runners in Alek Sauer and Khai Samuels! Sauer took the win in a very strong time
1:56.53. Sauer’s 1:52.9 split from last year’s states seems to be already showing
itself. Samuels is having a big breakout season on the track and he must have
held on for a nice time. Sauer is really quick, so Samuel’s must have hung
pretty well for an even split would be my guess. 1:57.89 this early is very
solid, and as we’ve seen before the 800/DMR double has worked for him early on
(I bet we see this at states).
No idea who Brett Wolfinger is from Quakertown,
but the junior, who’s PR was 2:01.01 from last year’s Henderson Invitation,
seems to have moved up in distance and this race was perfect for him as he
dropped a nice PR of 1:58.99. We see another
400m man moved up in distance for success. Connor Holm and Kamil Jihad also had
very solid days grabbing the SQS with times of 2:00.49 and 2:00.60
respectively. Jihad is looking like a total stud as he drops another 2 seconds
off his PR. Boucher for CB East had a tough day running 2:04, but the
mid-distance could be his thing if he has a breakout race in January.
Mile –
Paul Power shows off his speed and that he won’t be messing around this
indoor season as he drops a win by almost 3 seconds in 4:27.49 to continue the
tradition of runners breaking 4:30 at this meet. This speed by Power impresses
me, because I never thought of him as that type of a runner. Frankly I think
this was a big race for him. The late entry John Daly placed second just edging
out Colin Wills of Malvern Prep in 4:30.16 to Wills’ 4:30.19. Both runners will
be key DMR pieces ad St. Joe’s Prep squad is going to be really solid.
Ryan
Tung looked pretty food I 4th with a 4:31.29 to also get the SQS.
Andrew Hanna had himself a nice finish with a 4:33.76, but I think we’re going
to see better things from this young man later in the season. Lapsansky had a
tough day after a long XC season with a 4:40 6th place. Also to note
Liam Conway, Owen J. Roberts freshman stud, opened up his season in a 4:47!
3000 –
OH BOY! The 3k was unreal! I didn’t have faith in Abert after his 4:39
season opener, but he showed up big time dropping PA #2 with a time of 8:55.89!
I would really love to see Abert continue to go for the 3k/3200 during track.
He’s got some nice speed on him as we’ve seen over the past two years, but I think
he could really push guys like Brophy and James over this distance and it’s
great to see him succeed early on. Behind him runners were not messing around
with 7 runners breaking 9:20 (Slavin was 8th in 9:20.53). McDevitt
placed second overall with a 9:00.58, which just misses the SQS. He had a
strong XC season and this comes as no surprise.
I thought Degroot-Lutzner and
Maguire would be in the 9:10 range, but Etrain’s predictions were more on point
for sure as both runners went sub 9:05 with times of 9:03.33 and 9:03.65
respectively!! Both runners are looking really strong with D-L running a slew
of solid races in recent weeks and Maguire broke out during XC, but is clearly
coming into his own on the track. He and Hanna will be big time on a DMR team.
McMenamin didn’t waste any time on the track: the 10th grader from
Souderton ran 9:09.23 in his first race this indoor season. Central Bucks
runners also came to place with Ian Davies of West running 9:11.79 and Connor
Sands of East running 9:19.50. If anyone has splits on how these guys ran,
please post them up!
4x4 – Not totally what I talk about, but Cheltenham drops a 3:26.21 after
being in the Armoury just yesterday. . . that’s pretty awesome. Also Pennsbury
breaks 3:30 early in the season.
4x8 – Nothing crazy in this relay with Twin Valley winning in 8:26 on a 13
second leave over Neumann Goretti.
SMR – Easton Area came to play with a 3:48 over CB East, Roman Catholic, and
Chester. I wonder what runners were doubling back from this race such as Abert,
Boucher, and Jihad.
DMR – Nothing too big in this race, but solid 11:03’s from both Boyertown
and Central Bucks East who were 1st and 2nd respectively.
--ForrestCRN
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Sunday, December 28, 2014
UPDATED (12/29 12:20AM): Robert Burdette Meet Preview @ Bottom. Also Meet Results
TFCA of GP Meeting #2
I didn’t get a chance to talk about this meet in my last
post, so I’m going to throw up some quick interesting information here.
Twin Valley is always an interesting team to look at for the
4x8 and it seems like every year I wait for them to break out, so I’m not going
to make anything bold, but it’s nice to see Josh Coakley open up his season
with a 2:02.6 for the win over a solid runner in Julian Degroot-Lutzner, while
his teammate Colin Geary placed 2nd in the Mile with a time of
4:42.72, and Dominic Digiacomo also placed 2nd for TV in the 3k with
a nice time of 9:22. These guys have some interesting pieces and I’m thinking
about an 11 flat for the DMR by the end of the season.
Malvern Prep drops a nice DMR time of 11:02 for a meet
record. I wish we could see who was on the relay, but I’m guessing something
like Wills on the 1200 leg and McDevitt on the anchor. I can’t wait to see
those guys in open events however! Without Hoey will they go for the relay or
will they let McDevitt take on the 3k again this indoor season? I bet the go
for the DMR.
Out in Division I we saw 800m stud Dylan Eddinger run 51.98
to beat out Oliver Boucher (52.33) in the open 400. I love to see 800m guys go
after the 400 early on in the season to warm their legs up. I wonder what CB
East will do this season with their pieces. Boucher proved to be a solid leg
last season splitting 1:57 I believe and they’ve got Brophy would could
probably go 1:55 indoors (even off the 3k… or Mile?). But I guess we shall see.
But serious, biggest
result we’ve seen this indoor season in my opinion is the 2:02.42 by Chester’s
FRESHMAN Kamil Jihad! I mean come on! That’s just ridiculous to open up
your season with and he beat out Ryan Tung and Keelan O’Reilly, two proven 800m
runners. I’m stoked about this kid.
I’m pretty happy about Brian Arita’s opening 4:33 in the Mile
and he is too. I believe his splits were 2:18/2:15, which is a nice race for
him early in the season and he beat out Ian Davies of CB West (who ran 4:39).
La Salle’s Stephen Paul ran 9:24 in the 3k, and I’d love to
see all of La Salle’s XC squad race the 3k at their small meet in a few days. I
think most of La Salle’s varsity XC team could hit between 9:10-9:20, which
would be awesome to watch.
Neshaminy’s 4x8 team got a really nice win, and the SQS
(exactly for that matter) with the time of 8:22.06! They beat out LaSalle and
Bensalem by just over a second and also a CBW squad that ran 8:29. They’ve got
potential folks (just check out Etrains post), but the biggest relay event of
the day was the battle between CR South and Saint Joseph’s Prep that ended in
both teams going sub 11 with times of 10:53.53 and 10:54.72 respectively. I
think this event is perfect for both squads who have some stud legs to work
with in the 1200 and the Mile and I think both will medal at states. I’m
thinking about 10:40 or faster for both teams at the state meet and maybe low
10:30’s if things come together really nicely.
Wm. H. Emrey
Christmas City Relays
Once again Colin Abert gets a slow start to an indoor season
where he placed 3rd overall in a time of 4:39.68 with Seth Slavin
placing 6th in 4:43.06. Abert ran 4:39.01 at the Burdette Indoor
Classic this time last season, so in some ways it’s nothing to worry about
(finished his season running 4:16 for 1600m).
Pleasant Valley’s Khai Samuels placed 2nd overall
in the open 800 with a time of 2:02.8.
I really like that Pleasant Valley guys Slavin and Khai were
able to double back strongly in the DMR for a solid time of 11:10. Slavin took
the 1200 leg and Khai the 1600, which was an interesting choice for the team,
but overall that time looks great on paper right now and this relay squad has
got DMR qualifying potential.
I like the relays that Pennridge dropped as well. They ran
11:11 in the DMR and 8:31 in the 4x8 by only doubling Justin Musco and Dan
Williams. Alex Masgai has been a staple for this 4x8 team the past two years
running some solid 2 flat splits and may be in for a breakout season while
Williams ran 1:57 last season as well. I’m betting this team will drop around
an 8:10 4x8 time by the end of January.
Marine Corps Holiday
Classic Meet Entries
Men’s 800m Invitational
John Lewis is not messing around this year as his seed time
is 1:50.10 to start off the season. Boy I am excited to watch him take on this
event. There are 4 runners behind him seeded at under 1:57 and it should be fun
to see how low he can go. I’m thinking a low 1:54 for the win.
What is also exciting about this race is Penn Wood entering
two runners: Senior Ahmere Ponzo (1:57.55) and sophomore Dennis Manyeah
(1:59.55). This race could be over both of their heads, since we know Penn Wood
as the PA Sprint Corps, but it should be good early season strength to watch
them move up in distance. There 4x4 is always a potent one, but if they could
mix it up in the 4x8, things could get scary for the distance teams of PA.
Robert J. Burdett
Indoor Classic Meet Look Back (Preview will come once the Performance List
arrives)
Looking quickly at least year’s results I want to point out
a few things: the 800m winner Connor Holm (2:01.02) went on to medal indoors
running 1:56 to win the slow heat, but 4th place finisher was Eli
Mercado who ran 2:03.71 and he went on to run 1:55.33 in the open 800 on the
double from his amazing 1:53 split in the 4x8 earlier that day at the outdoor
state championships. Maybe we’ll have a similar break out star this year in the
event.
The Mile held quite a few studs in Jaxson Hoey (4:26 win)
over Billy Caldwell (went on the place 2nd outdoors in the 1600)
along with 800m studs like Dave Garton (5th), while Austin Cooper
and Watson Hanson who placed 3rd and 4th respectively
didn’t make the huge jumps we may have expected. Colin Abert also placed 7th
in this race in 4:39 and went on to run 4:16.90 outdoors.
The 3k was blazing with Brophy breaking 9 minutes to beat
out Belfatto and Comber, while Billy McDevitt faltered to place 8th
in 9:40, but went on to run 8:55 at states later that indoor season. That
showing of finishing speed from Brophy exhibited itself with his 1:55 split at
states outdoors and his 8:42 3rd place finish in the 3k indoors.
Robert J. Burdette
Indoor Classic – Meet Preview
Mile – The Interesting Stories:
Jack Carmody had a big time breakout XC season with a 37th
place finish at States. He ran at regionals and took some time off it seems
like since he has run 9:28/2:13 double to start his season about a week ago. A
sub 4:40 would be great to see from him to open his season. Freshman Liam
Conway will open up his track season with the Mile and we’ve seen a 4:49 from
the youngest Power and I think Conway could break 4:50 as well. We get to
Dominic Digiacomo and Keelan O’Reilly take to the Mile as well after solid
performances at the TFCAofGP Meet #2 in the 3k and 800m respectively.
The “Big Names”: We’ve usually see one to two runners break
4:30 in the Mile at this meet and I think this year should be no exception.
Paul Power has run 8:55 to start his indoor season and he’ll be taking on XC
medalist Kevin Lapsansky, but his biggest competition will come from Andrew
Hanna who has already run 9:13 for 3k, but was part of a very strong 10:53
State leading DMR squad. Colin Wills also has some strong miles under his belt
and he ran a quick 1200m for Malvern Prep last weekend when they ran 11:02 for
the DMR. Ryan Tung also looks to run low 4:30’s in this race as well. Sean
Sullivan could also surprise (I see him at 4:37). I also totally missed John Daly from St. Joes Prep, who should be able to run low 4:30's.
400m –
We get to see the career opener from John Brophy… yeah, and
we get to see Malvern’s new 400m DMR leg Elijah King perform.
800m –
I think this race has got some really solid potential.
Oliver Boucher opened his season with a 52 low in the 400 and now is moving up
in distance. He’ll be fighting indoor medalist Connor Holm who won this race
last season. They’ll be challenged by Khai Samuel’s who just ran 2:02 on the
double and Alek Sauer who recently ran 2:31 for the 1000m at the Armoury. I
think we’ll see a 1:58ish for the win with 3 runners breaking 2 minutes, that
is if they go for it from the beginning. If it slows down at all it should be
an easy win for Sauer, but the meet record is only 1:58.20 by Palmisano (Etrain’s
UD teammate) and I think it could get broken. Also it's going to be great to see how the freshman Kamil Jihad stack up against some of these 800m vets.
3000m –
This race should be really run to watch. Colin Abert will be
battling Billy McDevitt and CR South’s Joe McGuire for the win. Both McGuire
and McDevitt have only been a part of relays this season and I think McDevitt
will take the win, fairly easily in ~9:05. Abert and Mcguire will battle it out
around the 9:15 range with guys like Degroot, Marcelis, and Davies racing in
the low 9:20’s. I’m excited to see how Connor McMenamin does in his season
opener after a really great season in XC, but sometimes that’s tough to translate
to the track early on for young guys. Seth Slavin has started out his season
pretty solid and should be in the 9:30 range.
DMR –
I’m really not sure what to think about this race. Brophy
and Comber aren’t entered in open races and I think it’d be awesome to see them
open up their seasons with a 1200m race. . . A man can dream right? Spring Ford might see the Power brothers teaming
up and O’Hara doesn’t have anyone entered either and we haven’t seen anything
from James yet either… OMG this 1200 has so much potential (but yeah it’s
totally not happening).
4x8 –
It’s hard to tell what will happen in races like this, but
Cheltenham might drop something without John Lewis, which could be fun. I’m
sure we’ll see CR South run ~8:20 with Hanna and McGuire on the double
depending on how they race and we’ll also see something pretty solid from
Easton Area and potentially teams like North Penn, Penncrest, or Pennsbury could
surprise. Plus Pleasant Valley ran 11:11 in the DMR and could run sub 8:30 with
guys on the double as well and then there is always Neshaminy who doesn’t have
anyone in open events and have already hit the SQS.
That's all for Now Folks!
--ForrestCRN
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Catching Up
Hey guys, I apologize for my lack of posting recently. I was
extremely busy with finals week, but I will be updating this post after
each family board game. Let me first say that I've got another big
semester coming up and as much as I'd like to keep up with things this
is going to be tough for me. I'm writing a thesis paper and I'm taking
two senior seminar classes as just a junior along with being the Chaplin
of my fraternity and being on the track team. All of this being said,
lets get back to what we all care about: track (and XC...)
Casey Comber: If there has been someone who doesn't get enough credit it's this kid. Interviewing him last year at Districts I met a kid who I immediately knew would be successful. Talking to him I knew he was a guy who just loved running and was truly a lover of the sport. As he has progressed and become one of the top talents in PA he has been overshadowed by junior star, and fellow league runner, Jake Brophy. Comber's 3rd place at Districts and 7th at State however did not slow down his hopes of making it to nationals. Comber kept the ball rolling and had two of his best races at the end of the season when he placed 20th at Nationals. He's tied for the 17th best finisher of All-Time for PA in front of guys like Wilson and Shearn for people who know more recent stats (pretty darn impressive -- Also there is Kieth Capecci 8:27 3k and Ian Gottsfield 9:03 3200 who both placed 21st). I think there is no doubt that we will see a sub 9:05 3200 from Comber this Spring. With a 9:03 returner in Kevin James who wants to go low 8:50's and a stud like Jake Brophy (1:55 last year and 9:32 as a freshman) I think Comber has a great shot of breaking 9 minutes in a fast states race with these two guys.
Jake Brophy: I'm quite a bit nervous for Jake Brophy. He set a state record as a junior. Much like Tony Russell, but unlike Russell he went the Footlocker Route. There have been two junior qualifiers from PA to FL nationals: Ryan Gil and Brent Kennedy. Both runners ended up injured during XC and missed making it back to the national championships as seniors. The difference? Neither won a state title as a junior and both placed outside of the top 30, while Brophy was a solid 25th. Brophy is the 5th returner from FL's despite his 25th place finish. He is behind two total studs in Tamago and Hunter, but frankly Brophy, especially with his 195 SR from states has to be the best opportunity for PA to get an All-American at Footlocker nationals since Dustin Wilson back in 2011 (who placed 13th).
Kevin James: James had a really tough finish to his XC season due to some back injuries, but I think he's the best track running in PA. Ritz has looked like a total stud to open up his season (4:14/2:28), but I'm a bit scared for him (I'll get to that later). James has a 9:03 under his belt along with 3:05 splits for 1200 if I'm not mistaken. Brophy last season went for the 4x8 to help his team and increase his speed. James has done something very similar the past two years with the DMR. He's been on some studly relay squads and has laid down some top notch 1200m legs for O'Hara. He's got the speed muscles built up and now he's got the ability to really focus on the 3k/3200. I hope he does so. James will qualify for the 3k at Penn Relays and I have no doubt could and will go under 8:30 indoors if that is his focus. He has watch Russell try and fail at the 1600/3200 and Mile/3k double at states the past two years and I think he will have learned from his so we'll see him in one event. It would be great to see him and Ritz battle it out, but I think he chooses the 3k.
Sam Ritz: Before I get into discussing Sam Ritz: Congrats on committing to Columbia University. He is following his brother, which is fairly surprising. I thought we would see him go to UPenn. We haven't seen much at all from his Brother Ben who red-shirted last year, but maybe his training has been going well. Clearly the family has faith in Columbia's system and it's a great academic school.
Why I am worried about Sam Ritz? Ritz has hit the track absolutely flying. His 9:11 at Henderson was a clear indicator that he was going to be a stud this indoor season and his 4:14/2:28 show that his big XC base is translating quickly... too quickly for my liking. He might have taken a week off between XC and track, but frankly he's coming on much too strong for me. I hope he decides to take some more time off this winter, because it's a long way until Millrose and Nationals (where I'm sure he'll be looking to be an All-American in the Mile) and I'm just not sure if he'll be able to last that long. It's really, really easy to burn out after XC going into track. You're training all summer long building a base and running higher millage and then into long, intense workouts during XC. I'm a big proponent of taking time off (sometimes I take too much time), but professionals take 4-6 weeks totally off (Jagger gained 28 pounds of fat last year during his time off after training for 9 months). Training intensely for 6 months should provide you with 2 to 4 weeks off. That's just my opinion. Hopefully this strategy works out for Ritz, but I've watched quite a few of my teammates for the past 6 years not improve after not taking proper time off. It happened really badly to Chris Campbell for example.
Pennsbury: I'm pretty stoked about this team. Two guys running under 1:30 for 600m this early on and a great 2:31 opener for Sauer after a tough end to his XC season. My prediction: Sauer pulls a Horgan (HGP) where he places 2nd in a studly 800m field and then doubles back in 3:07ish to help lead PB (anchor in Sam Webb) to a top 3 finish in the DMR this indoor season. I think this team could go under 10:25 indoors if they really went for it and has a shot at making it to Penn Relays.
Henry Sappey: This kid had a ridiculous break out XC year that ended with him placing 10th overall at States, which I didn't see coming at all. Last season Casey Comber placed 7th overall indoors in 8:47 after his breakout XC year. I think Sappey will do something very similar. An indoor medal seems to be in his future, but where and how will he focus? A lot will depend on how the PTFCA deal's with the Hoey transfer situation (whether their appeal to run this season will go through and whether they want the DMR or not). Does Sappey have the speed to run the Mile or 1200 leg? Does he stick to just the 3k? Or will they double him in the Mile/DMR or keep him fresh for the relay?
The 3000m: The past two/three years the 3k in PA has really exploded indoors. Last season we had 17 runners qualify. Here's some of the big stories going into the season:
1. Paul Power -- Truly the next Chris Cummings? How will Power's track season's go? He has hit 8:55 early on this season without competition, but will he burn out and not be able to break 9 minutes at indoor states? Or will he break the curse and medal?
2. What time will medal? Marston's 8:50 was good enough for 8th last season, but two years ago Wilson's 8:42 was 8th. Lets look at the returners:
That's all for Now Folks, but I'll be bringing up more information later :)
Casey Comber: If there has been someone who doesn't get enough credit it's this kid. Interviewing him last year at Districts I met a kid who I immediately knew would be successful. Talking to him I knew he was a guy who just loved running and was truly a lover of the sport. As he has progressed and become one of the top talents in PA he has been overshadowed by junior star, and fellow league runner, Jake Brophy. Comber's 3rd place at Districts and 7th at State however did not slow down his hopes of making it to nationals. Comber kept the ball rolling and had two of his best races at the end of the season when he placed 20th at Nationals. He's tied for the 17th best finisher of All-Time for PA in front of guys like Wilson and Shearn for people who know more recent stats (pretty darn impressive -- Also there is Kieth Capecci 8:27 3k and Ian Gottsfield 9:03 3200 who both placed 21st). I think there is no doubt that we will see a sub 9:05 3200 from Comber this Spring. With a 9:03 returner in Kevin James who wants to go low 8:50's and a stud like Jake Brophy (1:55 last year and 9:32 as a freshman) I think Comber has a great shot of breaking 9 minutes in a fast states race with these two guys.
Jake Brophy: I'm quite a bit nervous for Jake Brophy. He set a state record as a junior. Much like Tony Russell, but unlike Russell he went the Footlocker Route. There have been two junior qualifiers from PA to FL nationals: Ryan Gil and Brent Kennedy. Both runners ended up injured during XC and missed making it back to the national championships as seniors. The difference? Neither won a state title as a junior and both placed outside of the top 30, while Brophy was a solid 25th. Brophy is the 5th returner from FL's despite his 25th place finish. He is behind two total studs in Tamago and Hunter, but frankly Brophy, especially with his 195 SR from states has to be the best opportunity for PA to get an All-American at Footlocker nationals since Dustin Wilson back in 2011 (who placed 13th).
Kevin James: James had a really tough finish to his XC season due to some back injuries, but I think he's the best track running in PA. Ritz has looked like a total stud to open up his season (4:14/2:28), but I'm a bit scared for him (I'll get to that later). James has a 9:03 under his belt along with 3:05 splits for 1200 if I'm not mistaken. Brophy last season went for the 4x8 to help his team and increase his speed. James has done something very similar the past two years with the DMR. He's been on some studly relay squads and has laid down some top notch 1200m legs for O'Hara. He's got the speed muscles built up and now he's got the ability to really focus on the 3k/3200. I hope he does so. James will qualify for the 3k at Penn Relays and I have no doubt could and will go under 8:30 indoors if that is his focus. He has watch Russell try and fail at the 1600/3200 and Mile/3k double at states the past two years and I think he will have learned from his so we'll see him in one event. It would be great to see him and Ritz battle it out, but I think he chooses the 3k.
Sam Ritz: Before I get into discussing Sam Ritz: Congrats on committing to Columbia University. He is following his brother, which is fairly surprising. I thought we would see him go to UPenn. We haven't seen much at all from his Brother Ben who red-shirted last year, but maybe his training has been going well. Clearly the family has faith in Columbia's system and it's a great academic school.
Why I am worried about Sam Ritz? Ritz has hit the track absolutely flying. His 9:11 at Henderson was a clear indicator that he was going to be a stud this indoor season and his 4:14/2:28 show that his big XC base is translating quickly... too quickly for my liking. He might have taken a week off between XC and track, but frankly he's coming on much too strong for me. I hope he decides to take some more time off this winter, because it's a long way until Millrose and Nationals (where I'm sure he'll be looking to be an All-American in the Mile) and I'm just not sure if he'll be able to last that long. It's really, really easy to burn out after XC going into track. You're training all summer long building a base and running higher millage and then into long, intense workouts during XC. I'm a big proponent of taking time off (sometimes I take too much time), but professionals take 4-6 weeks totally off (Jagger gained 28 pounds of fat last year during his time off after training for 9 months). Training intensely for 6 months should provide you with 2 to 4 weeks off. That's just my opinion. Hopefully this strategy works out for Ritz, but I've watched quite a few of my teammates for the past 6 years not improve after not taking proper time off. It happened really badly to Chris Campbell for example.
Pennsbury: I'm pretty stoked about this team. Two guys running under 1:30 for 600m this early on and a great 2:31 opener for Sauer after a tough end to his XC season. My prediction: Sauer pulls a Horgan (HGP) where he places 2nd in a studly 800m field and then doubles back in 3:07ish to help lead PB (anchor in Sam Webb) to a top 3 finish in the DMR this indoor season. I think this team could go under 10:25 indoors if they really went for it and has a shot at making it to Penn Relays.
Henry Sappey: This kid had a ridiculous break out XC year that ended with him placing 10th overall at States, which I didn't see coming at all. Last season Casey Comber placed 7th overall indoors in 8:47 after his breakout XC year. I think Sappey will do something very similar. An indoor medal seems to be in his future, but where and how will he focus? A lot will depend on how the PTFCA deal's with the Hoey transfer situation (whether their appeal to run this season will go through and whether they want the DMR or not). Does Sappey have the speed to run the Mile or 1200 leg? Does he stick to just the 3k? Or will they double him in the Mile/DMR or keep him fresh for the relay?
The 3000m: The past two/three years the 3k in PA has really exploded indoors. Last season we had 17 runners qualify. Here's some of the big stories going into the season:
1. Paul Power -- Truly the next Chris Cummings? How will Power's track season's go? He has hit 8:55 early on this season without competition, but will he burn out and not be able to break 9 minutes at indoor states? Or will he break the curse and medal?
2. What time will medal? Marston's 8:50 was good enough for 8th last season, but two years ago Wilson's 8:42 was 8th. Lets look at the returners:
Jake Brophy -- 8:42.52
Kevin James -- 8:42. 68
Matt Mcgoey -- 8:45.68
Casey Comber -- 8:47.76
Andrew Marston -- 8:50.06
Griffin Molino -- 8:50.51
Billy McDevitt -- 8:54.39
Paul Power -- 8:56.29
Jonathan Perlman -- 8:58.71
Will Loevner -- 9:16.74
Brophy,
James, Mcgoey, Comber, and Marston are all pretty much locks for the
3k. Molino ran 4:12.93 in the 1600m last outdoor season, but stuck with
the longer distances. After his injury this XC season maybe we see him
going for the Mile indoors? But he seems to love the longer stuff, so I
think we see him go for the 3k again, which gives us 6 runners who have
all run under 15:50 at states, which frankly seems to translate to a sub
8:40 time for 3k. McDevitt really broke out this XC season and he ran
8:54 for 3k last year. I think he could really surprise this indoor
season. He's the big man at Malvern Prep now, so although he's lost
training partners in the Hoey's the team culture should get better now
that they have left. I think he goes under 8:45 this indoor season as
well in a fast race. Power has a spell to break, but he could easily go
under 8:45 as well. Perlman has a breakout season ahead of him (in my
opinion) and maybe we'll get to see someone like Webb in the 3k if they
don't go DMR. You could even see Hoey go for the Mile/3k double and
frankly I wouldn't put it past him to try. Plus Ritz has run 9:11 this
year and could attempt it as well. And that's not even bringing in 15:49
guy Hunter Wharrey into the equation or Henry Sappey. Kevin Lapsansky
and Colin Abert are guys to watch out for as well in terms of entering
this field and it looks like Brian Arita could run 8:55ish and not even
place in the top 12.
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