Casey Comber: If there has been someone who doesn't get enough credit it's this kid. Interviewing him last year at Districts I met a kid who I immediately knew would be successful. Talking to him I knew he was a guy who just loved running and was truly a lover of the sport. As he has progressed and become one of the top talents in PA he has been overshadowed by junior star, and fellow league runner, Jake Brophy. Comber's 3rd place at Districts and 7th at State however did not slow down his hopes of making it to nationals. Comber kept the ball rolling and had two of his best races at the end of the season when he placed 20th at Nationals. He's tied for the 17th best finisher of All-Time for PA in front of guys like Wilson and Shearn for people who know more recent stats (pretty darn impressive -- Also there is Kieth Capecci 8:27 3k and Ian Gottsfield 9:03 3200 who both placed 21st). I think there is no doubt that we will see a sub 9:05 3200 from Comber this Spring. With a 9:03 returner in Kevin James who wants to go low 8:50's and a stud like Jake Brophy (1:55 last year and 9:32 as a freshman) I think Comber has a great shot of breaking 9 minutes in a fast states race with these two guys.
Jake Brophy: I'm quite a bit nervous for Jake Brophy. He set a state record as a junior. Much like Tony Russell, but unlike Russell he went the Footlocker Route. There have been two junior qualifiers from PA to FL nationals: Ryan Gil and Brent Kennedy. Both runners ended up injured during XC and missed making it back to the national championships as seniors. The difference? Neither won a state title as a junior and both placed outside of the top 30, while Brophy was a solid 25th. Brophy is the 5th returner from FL's despite his 25th place finish. He is behind two total studs in Tamago and Hunter, but frankly Brophy, especially with his 195 SR from states has to be the best opportunity for PA to get an All-American at Footlocker nationals since Dustin Wilson back in 2011 (who placed 13th).
Kevin James: James had a really tough finish to his XC season due to some back injuries, but I think he's the best track running in PA. Ritz has looked like a total stud to open up his season (4:14/2:28), but I'm a bit scared for him (I'll get to that later). James has a 9:03 under his belt along with 3:05 splits for 1200 if I'm not mistaken. Brophy last season went for the 4x8 to help his team and increase his speed. James has done something very similar the past two years with the DMR. He's been on some studly relay squads and has laid down some top notch 1200m legs for O'Hara. He's got the speed muscles built up and now he's got the ability to really focus on the 3k/3200. I hope he does so. James will qualify for the 3k at Penn Relays and I have no doubt could and will go under 8:30 indoors if that is his focus. He has watch Russell try and fail at the 1600/3200 and Mile/3k double at states the past two years and I think he will have learned from his so we'll see him in one event. It would be great to see him and Ritz battle it out, but I think he chooses the 3k.
Sam Ritz: Before I get into discussing Sam Ritz: Congrats on committing to Columbia University. He is following his brother, which is fairly surprising. I thought we would see him go to UPenn. We haven't seen much at all from his Brother Ben who red-shirted last year, but maybe his training has been going well. Clearly the family has faith in Columbia's system and it's a great academic school.
Why I am worried about Sam Ritz? Ritz has hit the track absolutely flying. His 9:11 at Henderson was a clear indicator that he was going to be a stud this indoor season and his 4:14/2:28 show that his big XC base is translating quickly... too quickly for my liking. He might have taken a week off between XC and track, but frankly he's coming on much too strong for me. I hope he decides to take some more time off this winter, because it's a long way until Millrose and Nationals (where I'm sure he'll be looking to be an All-American in the Mile) and I'm just not sure if he'll be able to last that long. It's really, really easy to burn out after XC going into track. You're training all summer long building a base and running higher millage and then into long, intense workouts during XC. I'm a big proponent of taking time off (sometimes I take too much time), but professionals take 4-6 weeks totally off (Jagger gained 28 pounds of fat last year during his time off after training for 9 months). Training intensely for 6 months should provide you with 2 to 4 weeks off. That's just my opinion. Hopefully this strategy works out for Ritz, but I've watched quite a few of my teammates for the past 6 years not improve after not taking proper time off. It happened really badly to Chris Campbell for example.
Pennsbury: I'm pretty stoked about this team. Two guys running under 1:30 for 600m this early on and a great 2:31 opener for Sauer after a tough end to his XC season. My prediction: Sauer pulls a Horgan (HGP) where he places 2nd in a studly 800m field and then doubles back in 3:07ish to help lead PB (anchor in Sam Webb) to a top 3 finish in the DMR this indoor season. I think this team could go under 10:25 indoors if they really went for it and has a shot at making it to Penn Relays.
Henry Sappey: This kid had a ridiculous break out XC year that ended with him placing 10th overall at States, which I didn't see coming at all. Last season Casey Comber placed 7th overall indoors in 8:47 after his breakout XC year. I think Sappey will do something very similar. An indoor medal seems to be in his future, but where and how will he focus? A lot will depend on how the PTFCA deal's with the Hoey transfer situation (whether their appeal to run this season will go through and whether they want the DMR or not). Does Sappey have the speed to run the Mile or 1200 leg? Does he stick to just the 3k? Or will they double him in the Mile/DMR or keep him fresh for the relay?
The 3000m: The past two/three years the 3k in PA has really exploded indoors. Last season we had 17 runners qualify. Here's some of the big stories going into the season:
1. Paul Power -- Truly the next Chris Cummings? How will Power's track season's go? He has hit 8:55 early on this season without competition, but will he burn out and not be able to break 9 minutes at indoor states? Or will he break the curse and medal?
2. What time will medal? Marston's 8:50 was good enough for 8th last season, but two years ago Wilson's 8:42 was 8th. Lets look at the returners:
Jake Brophy -- 8:42.52
Kevin James -- 8:42. 68
Matt Mcgoey -- 8:45.68
Casey Comber -- 8:47.76
Andrew Marston -- 8:50.06
Griffin Molino -- 8:50.51
Billy McDevitt -- 8:54.39
Paul Power -- 8:56.29
Jonathan Perlman -- 8:58.71
Will Loevner -- 9:16.74
Brophy,
James, Mcgoey, Comber, and Marston are all pretty much locks for the
3k. Molino ran 4:12.93 in the 1600m last outdoor season, but stuck with
the longer distances. After his injury this XC season maybe we see him
going for the Mile indoors? But he seems to love the longer stuff, so I
think we see him go for the 3k again, which gives us 6 runners who have
all run under 15:50 at states, which frankly seems to translate to a sub
8:40 time for 3k. McDevitt really broke out this XC season and he ran
8:54 for 3k last year. I think he could really surprise this indoor
season. He's the big man at Malvern Prep now, so although he's lost
training partners in the Hoey's the team culture should get better now
that they have left. I think he goes under 8:45 this indoor season as
well in a fast race. Power has a spell to break, but he could easily go
under 8:45 as well. Perlman has a breakout season ahead of him (in my
opinion) and maybe we'll get to see someone like Webb in the 3k if they
don't go DMR. You could even see Hoey go for the Mile/3k double and
frankly I wouldn't put it past him to try. Plus Ritz has run 9:11 this
year and could attempt it as well. And that's not even bringing in 15:49
guy Hunter Wharrey into the equation or Henry Sappey. Kevin Lapsansky
and Colin Abert are guys to watch out for as well in terms of entering
this field and it looks like Brian Arita could run 8:55ish and not even
place in the top 12.
Forrest, great post as usual. It sounds like you have a full plate this spring so don't be afraid to ask for help. Where have Cummings and Evan been, they put up awesome posts too. Maybe they were knee deep in finals and what not also. But if it gets to be too much for you guys to post a couple of times a week then appeal to your readers to keep it going. RTJ, RJL, NDR and JEB are a few who usually have some good stuff. The Dwest crowd is biased but knowledgably. Indoor/outdoor is here, let get the talk going!
ReplyDeleteAgreed, It looks like it becomes a lot harder to do something like this on your own time when you go to college, great work guys.
DeleteThe Hoeys are eligible to compete right away. They transferred from a non-PIAA school to a PIAA school. They don't have to sit out at all.
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