State 4x8 Virtual Teams -- Some fun UPDATE 8/1

*UPDATE: So I just check www.pa.milesplit.com and I noticed that John Lewis has continued to be a beast in the AAU circuit, where he just won the 800m at AAU Junior Olympic Games with a fantastic time of 1:50.01!!! So I've got to change around some numbers. Absolutely fantastic time from the rising senior!

Top PA 4x8 Teams -- Virtual

Hey guys, after John Lewis’ stud performance of 1:51.25, which puts him 26^th in the nation and 4^th in PA, I looked back a few years and created 4x8 teams based on the top open times. I know some runners had some fantastic splits over the years, but I thought looking at just the open stuff would be fun. 

2014: Fastest Group in PA History

Kyle Francis – 1:49.57

Jeffery Wiseman – 1:50.37

Joseph Logue – 1:51.09

John Lewis – 1:50.01*

Total Time – 7:21.04*

2013: Tightest Spread in PA History

Andrew Stone – 1:51.64

Robert Downs – 1:51.65

Alec Kunzweiler – 1:51.68

Joe Logue – 1:51.59 (from Soph year)

Total Time – 7:26.56

2012: Second Fastest Team in PA History

Drew Magaha – 1:48.82

Joe Logue – 1:51.59

Tom Coyle – 1:51.78

Wil Bailey – 1:51.85

Total Time – 7:23.94

2011:

Hong Cho – 1:50.41

Ned Willig – 1:51.10

Connor Manley – 1:51.50

Drew Magaha – 1:52.17

Total Time – 7:25.18

2010:

Tom Mallon – 1:49.01

Luke Lufebure – 1:51.08

Wade Endress – 1:52.24

Sam Ellison – 1:52.38

Total Time – 7:24.71

Looking over the numbers this year New Jersey put 3 guys in the top 13 for the 800m and come away with a nation leading 4x800 state team of 7:20.65. With Lewis' new time, PA has moved past Texas (7:22.01) for second place with a total time of 7:21.04, and Virginia 4^th in 7:22.45! And if you are questioning the ‘late’ result of John Lewis, don’t. PA is the only state with a runner that ran their PR (time) in May (Both Kyle Francis and Jeff Wiseman did this), so we’re actually behind most schools who have their state meets in the beginning of June. Other runners competed in the USA Junior National Championships which was earlier this month. 

I hope all of you are having a wonderful summer and getting some good training in! I've been lucky enough to be able to swim 3 to 5 days a week to supplement my running, which has been a lot of fun.

-- ForrestCRN

Top 10 Teams and Sleepers

It’s always tough to make a top 10 teams list going into an XC Season. 4-5 guys can develop, runners can get injured at any turn, but we need a base to start with, so let’s begin!

1. Malvern Prep (IND) – In my opinion Malvern Prep is easily the top team in the state going into next season. For the most part I agree with Etrain’s theory about the top 3 runners mattering the most, but as he pointed out, North Hills had 3 runners who finished top 13 in the region a few years ago, but they couldn’t make it out of WPIAL’s as a team. This being said, I love to know at least a top 4 group going into the next season. The 4^th guy doesn’t need to be great, but I really like to know who it is at least. Let’s see who Malvern has: Jaxson Hoey (Jr-PA#5, NXNE #4), Billy McDevitt (Sr-PA#36, NXNE#19), Josh Hoey (Fr-NXNE #17), Colin Wills (Jr – NXNE #21), Ryan Doane. (The NXNE places are from team scoring)

Looking at the regional teams who are returning Malvern Prep seems like the easy choice at the #2 spot. CBA (NJ) is always topping off the field and the return NXNE #5 returner, Blaise Ferro, who just won a state title for the 3200m. They also return a strong 2-4 pack of runners who placed 14-16 last season at regions, but I think MP will provide quite the challenge. Josh Hoey seems to be a total XC stud as he is the 17^th team scoring returning (19^th overall) from last season. The younger is a stud. This team will be led by his older brother, Jaxson who should be able to pick up crucial low team points for them. I loved what we saw out of McDevitt and Wills this past season on the track as the both ran low 4:20 mile times. Those 4 runners up front give MP some flexibility with depth. Ryan Doane is their next returning runner, but he’s quite a bit behind the group. If he can make a jump or they can pick up one more guy they will challenge for a regional win. No questions asked they’re the best team in the state of Pennsylvania.

2. North Allegheny (7) – This is where the top 3 theory works quite nicely. They’ve got Matt Mcgoey (Sr- PA #13), Hunter Wharrey (Sr- PA #22), and Scott Seel (Sr – PA #43) up front. Sadly Seamus Love moved, or else this team would probably top Malvern Prep on this list. They’ve got 2 medalists locked in with Mcgoey and Wharrey, but Seel has always been very consistent and could grab one of the last few medal spots. If he doesn’t, he’ll be a mid-30’s man no question. Nobody else the PIAA has that on their side right now. They also have a very strong 4^th man in Peter Savchik. Savchik just missed making the varsity team for states last season. In fact he was off by two seconds to Nicholas McClure. McClure scored 44 team points last season, and I’d say Savchik would have done basically the same. Those are some fairly low points, so going into next season through 4 runners this is what they look like (15+19+27+44= 111) And those are their scores from last year when facing off against the incredibly deep Henderson and O’Hara teams. They should breeze through the state title for a victory. They have 150 runners on their team to pick up a 5^th man. Hunter Wharrey was unknown going into last year and he almost medaled at states. They’re going to find someone to break 17 at Hershey for a 5^th man with their large program and great coaching staff. Don’t sleep on these guys at Regionals either.

3. Cardinal O’Hara (12) – I’m pretty excited about O’Hara team for next season. Kevin James has been a team leader for these guys for the past two years and his senior season he’s going to have these guys fired up and ready to roll. O’Hara returns 4 really strong runners: Kevin James (Sr-PA #3), Drew Pastore (Sr), Ryan James (So), Rob Morro (Jr). I’m a major believer in the sophomore to junior year jump, but Ernie Pastore (Drew’s older brother) made his big jump senior year when he placed 9^th at states and beat out his stud teammates like Dan Savage and Kevin James at the state meet in an extraordinarily clutch performance. Drew Pastore has steady improved like his brother and we very well could seem some bombs dropped by the senior next year, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the medal stand. Ryan James finished third out of all freshman last season at the state meet and don’t forget his brother placed 22^nd at a sophomore. Every year there are ~ 2.53 sophomores who medal at the AAA state meet (statistics going back to 1997), so there must be one or two runners to step up, and James could very well be that young man. If so, O’Hara could challenge NA for the title. Rob Morro was a very promising freshman on the track, but he had a tough sophomore year. With extra training and experience under his belt, he’s also got a great chance to break out. They will need a 5^th man, but O’Hara is an fantastically well run program, and I can’t imagine them having too much of an issue filling that hole.

4. Conestoga (1) – Any time a team returners 6 varsity runners and then has a ‘JV’ guy run 4:29.00 in the 1600 you know they’re going to be good. Conestoga is probably the only team on this list that I confidently know that they have a strong top 7! A top 7! Henderson was that way last year. They’ve got Andrew Marston (Sr-PA#6), James Cooper (Sr- PA#52), Pr Murray, Nick Cruickshank, Killian Nelson, Jack Iffert, and Nick Boccella. I’m pretty excited about this squad as a whole. They helped get Conestoga on the map. A group of juniors came together and made something really special happen last season, and now they’re back and ready to roll. The experience is there; they know Hershey’s course now; and they’re going to be hungry for more. Marston is a beast of a front man and I see Cooper and Murray as a great 2-3 punch. Behind them will be 4 runners battling for the 4-5 position, which makes for great practices and even better races. They’ll be able to pack up and work together. 

5. Council Rock North (1) – You might be thinking – Hey Forrest, I just check out Etrain’s list and he has CRN at #12! Why are they # 5 on your list? Clearly that CRN bias!” In this case, I really don’t think so at all and here is a list of reasons why: 1. CRN returns a solid top runner in Brian Arita (PA#39). Arita is determined to place top 25 and continually the CRN medaling streak. He’s a fantastic leader and will get this team pumped up and ready to roll. 2. They return 5 runners from their states varsity squad – Arita, Sean Griswold (Sr), Ben Heintz (Jr), Tim Haas (So), and Jesse Laitman (Sr). Haas was one of the top freshman at the state meet, and all 5 of these guys broke 16:50 at Districts. The sophomore to junior jump is most prevalent in CRN runners and I would love to go through a history lesson if you guys want to hear it. Basically what I’m trying to say is – Ben Heintz is going to be a monster next year. He’ll be breaking 16 at Districts with Sean Griswold, which gives CRN a similar top 3 to what they had last season except that Arita will be a bit further back than Wilson was as a front runner. Haas had an incredible freshman year and ran just two seconds slower than Wilson did as a freshman at Districts. Wilson placed 33^rd at the state meet as a sophomore. Haas might not be that good, but I see him placing in the top 50 to 60. Laitman just needs to be a solid 5^th man, but these guys have the fire power to really challenge Conestoga for a District title. 

6. West Chester Henderson (1) – This may be a mistake, but as of right now Henderson has quite a bit to prove to me. I do believe they’ve got the talent to move up on this list, and potentially even win districts however. Let’s run down this squad: Alex Knapp (PA#14), Gordy Barchet, Will Swart, Hugh Rainey, and Spencer Smucker. Alex Knapp has been around some fantastic runners for quite a while. I won’t go into too much depth about coming back as a runner being with awesome teammates who graduated, because Etrain has already done so with his West Chester Henderson Post. I totally agree with it, and I believe Knapp will be a great leader for this young squad, but here is what they will need to prove: Can Gordy Barchet stay healthy? He has had a slew of injury issues throughout his career, more so than his brother, but he did run 16:08 at a sophomore at Districts two years ago. If he can re-kindle that magic and make a 1-2 punch with Knapp the game changes dramatically, because both could very easily break 15:40 at Districts. Next they’ve got Will Swart who won JV Districts in 16:33 and ran a 4:34 1600 this past season, which is no joke. He has been overshadowed by his team the past two years, but I know he’s ready to get out of the gates for the Varsity team and will make another strong leader. Freshman Spencer Smucker has ran 4:42 for the 1600 in middle school and could very well medal at Districts as a freshman with the great coaching of Mr. Kelly. Hugh Rainey is another Varsity candidate who ran 4:45 for the 1600, and Henderson always has a large team, so I know they’ll find some other pieces and someone is bound to break out. If things can come together for this squad they could move up into the top 3 in the state. 

7. Freedom (11) – I’m a huge fan of this Freedom squad again this season, despite their disappointing 12^th place finish at states last year. They have a great spread and they had a killer district race. They were young last year and it was many of their first time to the state meet. Now they have that experience and I believe in this pack. Probably to a fault, but here is who they return - Ben Ziegler (Sr), Jason Lopez (Sr), Will Alpaugh (Jr), Dan Quigley (Jr), and Shane Smith (Sr). Lopz, Aphaugh, and Quigley were running with Ziegler all last season, but finished 32-35 seconds behind him at the state meet. If they were up with him, their score would have been decreased by ~70 points. That would have put them ahead of Carlisle and Conestoga. Now, this is a bit hefty of a prediction, but I had them at 180 before the meet. The point I am trying to make is that this squad has the potential. They’ve got a really tight pack of 4 runners and not a terrible 5^th man in Shane Smith. I’m excited to see how they hold up next year.

8. Pennsbury (1) – I am very hyped up about Pennsbury’s team. Once again the SOL league is stacked. Sam Webb (Sr- PA#8) is back in action after his injury and is ready to grab his first medal in the top 10 this season. He’s a great leader for this team and he peaks perfectly. He’s got a really strong number two runner in Alek Sauer (Sr- PA#44). Sauer will have his biggest race at Districts on the flat course, because he’s a true mid-distance guy. He broke 16 last year in a clutch race, and I think he can be mid 15:45’s next season. He struggled on the Hershey hills however. Behind them is a pack of 3 runners who were in the high 17 minutes at states in Dan Tokar (Sr-17:46), Dan Wick (18:01), and Thomas Wick (Jr). The Wick brothers are younger and have a lot of potential. If they can make a big jump into the low 17’s at the state meet, this team will be dangerous. They’ll be working to beat CRN all season that extra motivation will be there as well in practice.

9. Cumberland Valley – I had a lot of trouble placing CV going into next season. I have a feeling this young squad is going to break out and be rolling on all cylinders come October and November. Cumberland Valley has a history of strong runners and they’re a very young team. A strong top 4 lead by rising junior Owen Seeber, Yahya Soliman (So), Quinn Wasko (Sr), and Josh Higgins (So). They should have a solid spread 1-4, but they will need a 5^th man to step up. Connor Patch is going to be a junior, but he ran 18:42 at states, and will need to be in the mid-17’s if they’re going to stand a chance next season. If Seeber, Soliman, and Higgins can break out, they’ll be set no questions asked. 

10. State College Area – I’m going to buy into Etrain’s top 3 theory a bit here and go with a team who has one of the best top 3’s in the state in State College. Cather, Adams, and Golembeski have left this squad in great hands. Alex Milligan (Jr) looked really great last season running mid 4:20’s and 1:57 in the open 800. He is going to be a total stud. Behind him we have Nick Feffer (So) who was brilliant for SC as just a freshman. He held up well under pressure with a time of 17:20 at states, which puts him 4^th out of all freshman last season. Cather swears by this kid, and Cather is possibly the best and most realistic predictor I’ve ever seen (Ex. He called himself medaling and SC placing 4^th during XC). Rounding out this studly group is Matt Beyerle(Sr- 1600m - 4:31) who had a rough state meet and ran 17:40, but I know he’s ready to bounce back and lead this team. They will need to pick up a few pieces, but runners such as Anthony Degleris (Jr – 2:02 800), Eric Heatwole (Top XC JV runner), and Owen Wing (So) should be able to step in and begin to fill the holes.

Sleeper Picks

Downingtown West – Maybe these guys should be #10 on the list. It’s really close. Last season they placed 8^th at Districts with a 26 second spread and an Ang. Time of 16:33. 16:16 was the slowest Avg. Time to make states last year and I’m guessing about the same time will be needed if conditions are similar to last year. With all 5 of their top guys returning and their team being led by two sophomores you’ve got to be excited about what they bring to the table. Do I think the comparisions to Henderson are ridiculous? Yes. Henderson is an established Dynasty, while Downingtown West hasn’t made the state meet in years (if ever?). I’m big on Henry Sappey leading this team as the top guy next year. He’s going to be a junior and just ran 4:31 for 1600m. I think he’s going to break out strongly and help these guys quite a bit. He was the top runner at the beginning of the season, but he faded by the end. I’m not sure if he was injured or sick, but if he can keep the tempo strong all season long he’s going to be at the head of a strong underclassman trio with sophomore studs Drew Alansky (9:54/16:19) and Ryan Barton (9:57/16:24). They also have two solid seniors who’s leadership will be greatly needed” Will Pelcin (16:33) and Charlie Barton (16:42). Jason White will also be in the mix as the tightly packed 6^th man (16:50). 

Scranton Prep – They return their entire varsity team and they placed pretty well at states last year with a 1-5 spread from 17:00-18:18 (top 4 under 17:50). They’re going to be in the shadows most of the year as most District 2 teams are, especially AA, but when you’ve got a group of 6 seniors you know they have a very one track mind. It’s all of their last XC season and they’ll want to go out with a bang. Kyle Perry is a great leader of the group and he added a 4:30 to his resume this past outdoor season, while teammate Ryan Burke followed right behind with a 4:31. They will be joined by Ben Evans, Anthoney Nardone, and Owen Brier.  

Mount Lebanon – They’re always a really solid team from the WPIALs and have a great chance of putting something together. They will make states, which makes them dangerous and I love their front two guys, Ian Braun (Sr) and Todd Gunzenhauser (Jr). Todd’s brother, Radford, was a beast and I think this season he’ll really be a breakout star. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the medal stand at the state meet. Braun is super consistent and to round out the big 3 is Matthew Stone who was soli all 2013. They will need to fill some gaps at the 4-5 position if they want to make a top 10 finish once again in AAA.

Central Bucks West – Everyone is super hyped up on DTW. They’re a really strong young looking squad, and I’m just as stoked to see how they perform, but CBW is totally being ignored, so I’m going to hype this squad up a bit. They’ve got a great coaching duo and here is their line up going into next season with some statistics- Rock Brian Iatarola (Jr – 10:02, 16:35), Rock Fortna (Jr – 16:51, 4:24), Declan McDonald (Jr - 10:14, 16:58, Brian Mass (So – 4:44, 9:56, 17:09), Ben Smullen (So – 4:51, 9:58, 17:11), Ian Davies (Sr - 10:05, 17:00), Beckett Wilson (Sr – 17:19). Do I think they’ll make it to the state meet? Probably not, but they’re young and worth talking about with 5 really strong non-seniors.

Twin Valley - They've got a new returning core 5 runners and every year seems like it's going to be their breakout season, but it never really happens... will this be the year?

--ForrestCRN

LETS GO USA! I believe that we will win!