Top PA 4x8 Teams -- Virtual
Hey guys, after John Lewis’ stud performance of 1:51.25,
which puts him 26th in the nation and 4th in PA, I looked
back a few years and created 4x8 teams based on the top open times. I know some
runners had some fantastic splits over the years, but I thought looking at just
the open stuff would be fun.
2014: Fastest Group in PA History
Kyle Francis – 1:49.57
Jeffery Wiseman – 1:50.37
Joseph Logue – 1:51.09
John Lewis – 1:50.01*
Total Time – 7:21.04*
2013: Tightest Spread in PA History
Andrew Stone – 1:51.64
Robert Downs – 1:51.65
Alec Kunzweiler – 1:51.68
Joe Logue – 1:51.59 (from Soph year)
Total Time – 7:26.56
2012: Second Fastest Team in PA History
Drew Magaha – 1:48.82
Joe Logue – 1:51.59
Tom Coyle – 1:51.78
Wil Bailey – 1:51.85
Total Time – 7:23.94
2011:
Hong Cho – 1:50.41
Ned Willig – 1:51.10
Connor Manley – 1:51.50
Drew Magaha – 1:52.17
Total Time – 7:25.18
2010:
Tom Mallon – 1:49.01
Luke Lufebure – 1:51.08
Wade Endress – 1:52.24
Sam Ellison – 1:52.38
Total Time – 7:24.71
Looking over the numbers this year New Jersey put 3 guys in
the top 13 for the 800m and come away with a nation leading 4x800 state team of
7:20.65. With Lewis' new time, PA has moved past Texas (7:22.01) for second place with a total time of 7:21.04, and
Virginia 4th in 7:22.45! And if you are questioning the ‘late’ result
of John Lewis, don’t. PA is the only state with a runner that ran their PR (time)
in May (Both Kyle Francis and Jeff Wiseman did this), so we’re actually behind
most schools who have their state meets in the beginning of June. Other runners
competed in the USA Junior National Championships which was earlier this month.
I hope all of you are having a wonderful summer and getting some good training in! I've been lucky enough to be able to swim 3 to 5 days a week to supplement my running, which has been a lot of fun.
-- ForrestCRN
We have had a lot of solid 800 runners over the course of PA's history, many with very different running styles. The Joey Logue and Ned Willig approach of sitting and kicking (56-55), the Tom Mallon Approach of going even splits (54-54), and the Drew Magaga and Kyle Francis Approach of hammering it from the gun (52.5-56.5-ish). My question to everyone is: What do you think is the best approach? All have their benefits. One way you go out cautiously and kick as hard as you can. One way you go out semi-fast and try and get as close to that as possible. One way you go out hard and try and hold on. My personal preference was always an even split, even though my PR and running style were more positive splits. World records are almost always positive splits as well.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
The question "What do you think is the best approach" needs to be defined, so I will define it in two different ways with an explanation for each and answer your question.
Delete1) The Best Approach can stand for Best for You: In which case I do believe that some runners are better at specific approaches, especially when it comes to running rounds and finals in competitive racing.
2) The Best Approach can stand for the Fastest Time: In this case I truly believe that positive splitting is the best way to run a PR. I've been watching professional and collegiate running for 4 years now and I've seen thousands of 800m races, and I believe that positive split racing is the best way to PR for almost everyone. This is not totally universal, but I believe for a high majority of people. Holding on is painful, but staying smooth and attempting to hold form after going out hard seems to be the best way to grab that personal best.
This is slightly hypocritical from me, because I've only gone out sub 60 once in a race, and it is totally something I need to work on. Hoping to get out in 57 or 56 a couple races next track season to really try this theory out.
I don't think there is a best approach. Everyone is different and each one should pick a strategy that works best for his fitness level\speed...etc. Early in my HS career, I found that running negative splits provided me the best times, however, a few years later (after experimenting in practice), taking it out hard was better for me.
ReplyDeleteI liked taking it our hard. There are no guarantees you'll be able to out kick anyone when you are behind.
ReplyDeleteI like running under the radar so to speak in the middle of the pack, then setting up a kick around the 300m to go mark and running all out the last 200. I've experimented with taking it out hard from the start, but I've had much more success with my kick and negative splits.
DeleteYo Forrest on the topic of the 4x8, what is your opinion on the top 3 teams this year?
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna go with CB East, Pennsbury, and Malvern Prep. No order.
Delete-RTJ
Throwing out State College as well, but yeah those 3 that RTJ mentioned seem to be the best
DeleteWhat about Bensalem?
DeleteHi guys, Christopher Cummings of WC East here. So now that I'm out of the Ches-Mont league, I decided it might be fun to write up a Ches-Mont preview for all of the teams in the league. I started with Downingtown West today, and if you guys want to comment on it with suggestions for the later ones, that'd be great. Also I will not be writing one for my home team, WC East, because I know the team too well and still run with them like every other day, so if a kind soul wants to add in a WC East preview that'd be cool. Here's DWest:
ReplyDeleteDowningtown West (8th in Districts, 3rd in Ches-Monts)
DWest last year was a good example of a pack running school. They had no top guns and sent no one to States, but they had a tight pack in the mid-16s at Districts led by freshman Drew Alanksy. A 25 second 1-5 spread at Districts is very good, backed up by their 32 second spread at Ches-Monts on a notoriously slow Unionville course. There has been a lot of talk about DTW both last year and this year as a new powerhouse in the Ches-Mont and even a possible Ches-Mont champion team. In my opinion DTW has the best chance of any of the schools in the league to win Ches-Monts this year, I’d say 50-60% chance that DTW takes the Ches-Mont title. And with their top 6 returning, they should be a lock for a top 5 spot in the District. I know lots of people also are talking DTW up as a top 10 state team, and I think this is reasonable since if a team makes it out of District 1, they usually end up top 10 in the state. How high in the top 10? Well I don’t like to predict before teams even start preseason, but I would say 8th right now because of how stacked some of the other districts are starting to look.
Here are their top 6 with their grades this year and last year’s Lehigh District time:
Drew Alansky, SO 16:19
Ryan Barton, SO 16:24
Will Pelcin, SR 16:33
Charlie Barton, SR 16:42
Henry Sappey, JR 16:44
Jason White, SR 16:50
Any time you see two Freshman leading the way with 16:19 and 16:24, you get excited about the potential. Both Alansky and Barton have the chance to break out this season and go sub 16, but neither were very exciting on the track (9:54 and 9:57 3200’s respectively). Another name to watch on the DWest scene is Henry Sappey. He struggled a bit at Districts, but he led the team at Ches-Monts. He also got down to a 4:31 mile in May and was a 2:02 800 guy as a freshman, so he has some foot speed. Solid pack running will carry the team out of District one (no small feat), but you need low sticks at States and how well those two sophomores progress this season will determine where in the top 10 DTW finishes up.
-Cummings, WC East
Good preview of DTW, I'd say Top 4 districts, Top 8 states with a chance of Top 5 at States if they stay healthy and peak at the right time. I thought they peaked a bit early last year based on their Bulldog times but that's a learning experience for a young team. They learned from last year and will be much better. I predict DTW wins the Chesmonts over Henderson but don't underestimate Coatesville and Rustin. They're more talented than people think.
DeleteNDR
Dwest will dominate Chesmonts, they're loaded 1 - 10.
DeleteCoatesville and Rustin won't be a factor. Both finished like 30th at districts last year. Coatesville is many years removed from the Dawsons and Rustin has never done much. Chesmonts will be the usual crowd of DWT, WCH, GV and WCE.
DeleteI'm not saying they'll win Chesmonts. I said "don't underestimate" Coatesville and Rustin. Both teams are returning 6 of their top 7.
DeleteNeither team is elite, but they're returning more than a lot of other Chesmont squads.
GV, WCH and WCE have good coaches. They'll always keep their teams competitive and of course DTW is loaded right now.
NDR
Lets not forget DWest is still a very young team. I'm not ready to declare them the hands-down winner of anything this season. I predict they will have their marked ups and downs as they struggle to mature as a team. I think as someone else said on this blog, they will come out of the gate strong, possibly win and likely peak at Chesmonts, but not make States.
DeleteI think last year DWest fully believed they were a state level team and were disappointed to not send the team out to Hershey. While they are young, this year they want to make a statement and I'll bet they're going to peak around Districts/States in order to make that statement. Even taking the Ches-Mont title does not mean much if you don't make States or have a bad day at States.
DeleteI'm getting started on the Rustin preview and will try to get that up later this afternoon or tonight.
-Cummings, WC East
I got the WC Rustin preview done early, so here it is. For anyone who didn't see, the DWest preview is above.
ReplyDeleteWC Rustin (30th at Districts, 9th at Ches-Monts)
West Chester Rustin has the misfortune of being in the West Chester Area School District. At WC East we always thought we had it rough being in the same school district as Henderson, and Rustin only has it worse. While they may not be known as a very good cross country school, Rustin should field a decent team this year. They had 2 guys under 17 and 6 guys within 17:15 at Districts last year. They also return all six of those guys.
Here are their 2013 District times with the new school year:
Jack Carmody, JR 16:28
Brandon Hontz, SO 16:52
Spencer Vogt, SR 17:05
Jimmy Cook, SR 17:14
Matt Coates, SR 17:15
Scott Spak, SR 17:15
There is some potential with this group. You have two young guys out front who could drop big time. Carmody worked his way down to a 4:35 during the track season and with a good summer could be in the low 16’s. Hontz did 4:49 during the track season, which isn’t really that great except for the fact he was still a freshman. He could also drop some good time this season and getting to under 16:30 I think would be a reasonable goal for him. And if the pack of 4 seniors can improve so that their 5th man is under 17, you’re looking at about 15th in District One. My prediction is that Rustin will not be a powerhouse in the Ches-Mont league, but will be a good team, taking 6th in the Ches-Mont and 15th at Districts.
Also a quick shout-out to Rustin's 4x100 team this past year. I got to watch them seriously tear it up at some track meets, I'd like to say good job to them.
-Cummings, WC East
Good posts so far.
DeleteRustin is still a newer school with no tradition and no big finishes, they're always middle of the pack. They have some talent to build on though as those times show. If WCH or WCE programs had that Rustin group they'd probably be going to states this year.
Preview Avon Grove, they're the real sleeper in Chesmonts this year.
Dwest, WCH, WCE, Coatesville, Avon Grove, DEast, GV, Unionville, Rustin, Kennett, Shanahan, Oxford, Sun Valley, Octorara. No need to run the race, this order is a lock.
DeleteGood try
DeleteWCH, DWest, Coatesville, Rustin, AG, GV, Kennett, Shanahan, WCE and so on
WCE is tricky to decide so I'll give some slack there but besides that I stand by my ranking
DeleteSo regarding the post ^^^^ above, are you saying the coaching at Rustin keeps them from being a legit threat at Chesmonts, districts, etc...? Sounds like you say the talent is there, but being squandered?
DeleteNot knocking Rusting coaching, complimenting East and Henderson. It takes time to build a program. All the WC schools are the same size yet East is solid every year and Henderson, well everyone knows about them. It's like GV, they're in a rebuilding year but they'll be hanging around top 4 or so at Chesmonts. Rustin has some talent but they're not used to training like a top team so East, GV and Henderson will beat them again because that's what happens.
DeleteYou just contradicted yourself by implying it indeed IS about coaching.
DeleteSince Cummings can't preview his old team, I'll give it a shot.
ReplyDeleteWC East (2013- 2nd at Chesmonts, 13th at Districts)
WCE doesn't have the depth of the Henderson program and losing Cummings and Dages leaves a big void. But they're well coached. Regardless of what others have said over the years they peak right around districts (all times below are PRs that were run at districts last year)
Last year's squad was a 5th man away from a return trip to states and their 13th place finish at districts is probably a motivator for a team that finished 7th in the state in 2012. Because they lacked a true 5th last year a pack of younger runners (Freshmen and Sophomores) ran varsity for them. That experience will help them.
Returning:
Eric Diestelow, SR- 15:48
Jared Franz, JR- 17:15
Ryan Orr, SR- 17:18
Joe Dougherty- SO- 17:19
Sebastian Hoyos- SO- 17:24 (JV race)
Daniel Brennan- SO- 17:25 (JV race)
Diestelow is good. He's a two time district medalist in XC from 2012 and 2013. He got injured at Foot Locker last year and missed most of Indoor, but came back and won the 1,600 at Outdoor Chesmonts. He'll step down into Cummings' role from last year. It's obvious that there is a big void behind him. It's also obvious that the rest of their returnees run in a pack. The question is how much can that pack improve this year? If Diestelow can finish in the top 10 individually at districts and their pack drops into the 16:30's, they may sneak up on a lot of people and finish in the top 7 at districts. A 10th place finish at districts is more probable and they’ll probably fall into that 3-6 pack at Chesmonts.
If you look at Districts from 2013, Great Valley had Willig at 16:05 and a pack between 16:20- 16:44. They finished 7th. While CB East had Brophy at 15:24 and a pack between 16:28- 16:55, they finished 12th. This shows that there's a fine line between 7th and 12th in district 1. This team is somewhere in between both of those squads.
Love the previews by Cummings so far. Keep them coming. Not sure if you're running next year or where, but good luck anyway.
NDR
Fine line between 7th and 12th? OK, if you say so. I'd say the elephant in that room is do they make it past districts or not? And that would be a resounding no, but nice try.
DeleteWhere is there any mention of them making states? There's no elephant in the room.
DeleteHard to see East or any other Chesmont team (besides Henderson and DTW) going to states with teams like Stoga, CRN, CB East, and Pennsbury running well.
Curious to see the Henderson preview based on their JV times at districts last year.
NDR
Thank you for writing a great WC East preview, NDR (I don't know what that stands for or who that is, but thanks), I appreciate it. As requested I have Avon Grove done, and I think I will also try to get Coatesville posted today. Here is Avon Grove:
ReplyDeleteAvon Grove (20th at Districts, 7th at Ches-Monts)
Avon Grove had a decent team last year, but most notable among them was junior Josh Smith. Josh Smith (at 15:45 at Districts) was the top gun for the team with a second group in the upper 16s and then another group in the mid-17s. They only lose two guys off of their district team, but this year they will have four seniors in their top 5. While the stakes may not be as high as a Ches-Mont title on the line for this team, this is still a now-or-never year for those four seniors to try to make some noise from a school that has been easy to overlook in the past few years.
Here are their top 6, with current grades and last year’s district times:
Josh Smith, SR 15:45
Jake Ilgenfritz, JR 16:41
Ryan Blair, SR 17:25
JC Budd, SR 17:26
Tyler Mebane, SR 17:34
Hunter Jarratt, SO (*18:04)
*I could not find the JV District results, so I adjusted Hunter’s time from Ches-Monts
In my mind, Josh Smith is one of the top 3 guys in Ches-Monts competing for individual champion (the other two are Eric Diestelow and Alex Knapp). Josh was 5th at Ches-Monts last year, 12th at Districts and 39th at States, all strong performances that show he should be a great runner this year and a guy to watch. The rest of the team is a bit far behind. Ilgenfritz (coming off a good track season with 4:31 and a 9:48 in the District 3200) should be able to drop some time and maybe even get around 16:00, which would be a big help. However those three seniors at number 3, 4 and 5 will make a big difference in their final placement at Districts. Remember that for a runner in the mid-17s at Districts, a 10 second drop in time can drop 25 places off the team-score sheet. If the whole team markedly improves this year, Avon Grove could finish top-15 at Districts, even as high as 11th or 12th, but I will predict them at 17th in the District, and 7th again in the Ches-Mont. Maybe that doesn’t seem fair for a team that will be better than last year, but I don’t really see them beating anybody above those rankings, so Avon Grove will just have to prove me wrong.
If anybody knows where to find 2013 District 1 JV results, please let me know, I haven't had any luck finding them. Also I will be running with the team at Clemson in the fall, thanks for the well wishes.
-Cummings, WC East
runccrs.com
DeleteJV results from District 1
Deletehttp://runccrs.com/results/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/District-Unseeded-Race-2013-Boys-with-Team.pdf
looks like avon grove had 7 sub 18:00 runners in the JV race.
DeleteThat's why AG is the sleeper pick. They've got a lot of depth and potential and having a front runner in Smith and a solid guy in Ilgenfritz they'll pull the others along. Coatesville and Rustin don't have those frontrunners or any recent top guys like WCH and WCE who left a legacy to follow.
DeleteAfter seeing the District JV times for Avon Grove (thanks for pointing those out to me guys), Avon Grove does have some serious depth and it looks like they'll have as many as 10 or 12 guys competing for varsity spots, which will make the whole team better. Avon Grove is a sleeper pick and they have potential to surprise. Count my predictions of 17th at Districts and 7th at Ches-Monts as worst case scenarios. Now on to Coatesville:
ReplyDeleteCoatesville (18th at Districts, 6th at Ches-Monts)
Last year Coatesville was a pack-running school. In 1-5 splits Coatesville had 29 seconds at Districts and 35 seconds at Ches-Monts, both good numbers. One of the biggest reasons Coatesville is being mentioned in the Ches-Mont league though is that the team returns 6 members of its District team, and lots of returners on varsity usually leads to good things. Also, 5 of those 6 will be seniors, and as I mentioned in the Avon Grove post, that leads to a now-or-never kind of motivation which could drive this team.
So let’s take a look at the top 6 this year, with current grade and last year’s district time:
Blake Ettien, JR 16:32
Marlowe Tooles, SR 16:45
TJ Mirenda, SR 16:46
Robert Ruprecht, SR 16:55
Ian Dietrich, SR 17:03
Jared Henderson, SR 17:20
Coatesville must not have submitted their JV times for districts because I didn’t see any listed on the JV results. I did look at their Ches-Mont JV times and while they have some depth, I don’t think any of the JV guys will jump up to top 6.
I don’t see any of these guys breaking out into a true top runner, none of them were terribly impressive on the track. Ettien had a 9:56 and 4:51, Tooles had a 4:45 and 1:57 (along with a 52.9 400, so I think he is primarily a speed guy instead of long distance), and Mirenda had a 4:55 and 10:02. So this team will be a pack-running team again this year, and assuming they keep up the good 1-5 splits, the only question becomes: how much does the pack improve? I’d say that Coatesville puts their top 5 between 16:15 and 16:50 at Districts this year, which should put them about 10th at Districts. I also think they’ll be 3rd or 4th at Ches-Monts. Both of those would be good improvements from last year’s finishes and should make Coatesville a force in the Ches-Mont league this year.
-Cummings, WC East
I like that Coatesville team. The school is known more as a powerhouse for sprints, hurdles and field events so putting together a decent distance team is pretty cool.
DeleteA team that can put their top seven between 16:00 and 17:00. Kind of like the WCE team that made states in 2012.
DeleteCoatesville did once win a National championship in XC
DeleteYes, Coatesville won Nationals in 2006 I believe. I suspect the coach might have left between now and then, but does anyone know if it is the same guy?
DeleteIs this solely an outdoor list? Because Ned ran 1:51.25 at Yale indoors in 2012 and Wade Endress ran 1:51.73 in 2011, both would be on the "all-year" team.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
EDIT! The fastest year in PA just got faster! John Lewis runs a 1:50.01 at AAU!!!! He is now the second fastest runner this year! What a summer!
ReplyDeleteI decided to combine Octorara, Sun Valley and Oxford into one post. None of them have traditionally been all that strong in the Ches-Mont league, but there are some good things going on in these programs and I thought I should still preview them to the best of my ability. I was quite stunned with how small the teams at Octorara and Sun Valley are, props to those guys for sticking with it.
ReplyDeleteOctorara (9th at Districts (AA), 14th at Ches-Monts)
First of all, I never realized Octorara was AA. I guess it makes sense, but just never something I had thought about. This team historically hasn’t been that strong, but they’re a small team (they only had 11 runners at Districts last year), and do the best with what they have.
Here are their top 5 heading into this year, with current grades and last year’s district times:
Andrew Agen, JR 18:33
Matt Carr, JR 19:55
Zach Smith, SR 19:56
Ricardo Camacho, SR 20:14
Antonio Reyes, SR 20:34
So of course none of these guys look like the great runners were used to seeing from some other Ches-Mont teams, but they’re not bad times to build off of for this year. By that I mean with those times Octorara could have 5 guys under 20:00 this year at Districts, which would bump them up a spot to take 8th in the AA Districts race. I don’t see them passing Sun Valley or Oxford though, so they’ll likely remain at 14th in the Ches-Mont.
Sun Valley (50th at Districts, 13th at Ches-Monts)
So Sun Valley has finished 50th at Districts two years running now, and they’ll be looking to improve on that mark. They graduate 3 seniors off varsity, but 4 of their top 5 from last year are returning. Unfortunately they didn’t post JV District results, but then I realized they only ran 8 guys at Ches-Monts in total, so there may not have been JV District results to post. Since they lose 3 seniors, hopefully a couple of new freshmen will come in to complete their varsity squad.
So here are their 5 returners with current grades and last year’s district times:
Emmanual Rodriquez, SR 17:45
Zack Bush, SR 18:25
Zack Horseman, SR 19:06
Shane Sarosy, JR 19:16
Matt Tiger, SR (*20:31)
*Adjusted from Ches-Mont time
Rodriquez didn’t have a very good indoor season and did not run outdoor, but he dropped 57 seconds off his 5k PR last year, so he could possibly drop a lot more time to get down towards the low 17s. Zack Bush has a 16:57 to his name last year, and ran 18:20 at the slow Unionville course before running 5 seconds slower at Districts. My guess is he got hurt at the end of the season. He then worked his way down to 4:40 and 10:00 on the track. I’m not sure where to predict him at, but I’ll take a shot and say he does around 16:40 at Districts this year. And if their 3-5 guys all drop some time, Sun Valley may be able to improve to 49th or 48th at Districts this year, but I can’t see a big jump up since their competitors up around 50th all look to be improving too. I also think they take 13th at Ches-Monts again.
Oxford (49th at Districts, 12th at Ches-Monts)
Last year Oxford took a bit of a step back after losing 4 seniors from varsity the year before. They return 4 of their top 5 this year though and will be looking to take back a few spots in the District standings. In the Ches-Mont league they may also be hoping to climb a spot or two by beating out Shanahan or even Kennett.
Here are their top 6 returners:
Bryant Wilson, SR 17:29
Joe Barr, JR 18:39
John Winters, SO 18:40
Thomas Sumner, SR 19:10
John Porter, SO (*19:20)
Dom Lopresti, SO (*20:00)
Bryant Wilson is clearly the top guy for this Oxford team, and he got down to a 4:51 mile this past track season. I think he can get down into the low 17s, and the rest of the top 5 should be under 19. With those kinds of times Oxford may be able to pick up a few spots in the District, even as high as 45th, but I think they will end up somewhere between 47th and 49th again. At Ches-Monts I don’t see them making up all of the considerable ground between them and Shanahan last year, so they will take 12th.
-Cummings, WC East
Looks like Sun Valley ran a 5K between Chesmonts and Districts last year. Not sure why they would do that. But you would expect significant improvement if they skip that meet this year. Perhaps a runner making states?
DeleteI also don't understand why they would do that, unless the coach thought the extra race would help keep them sharp, but with only one week between the two that wouldn't appear to be a concern. But Zack Bush has a shot at states if he drops time. To make States I think he needs to be under 16:20 this year, which is reasonable if you assume he could have done 16:45 last year at Districts (also assuming he was hurt and that's why he did 18:25). So if they skip that meet I'd say Zack Bush has a decent shot at States, but it isn't just skipping that meet, he also needs to drop time.
Delete-Cummings, WC East
Anyone with a milesplit membership wanna throw up the top 50 returning boys in northeast list
ReplyDeleteIt's lame, just like the milesplit team rankings it's just based off of pr's in the database, many of which are on fast and/or questionable 5K courses.
DeleteHenderson preview?
ReplyDeleteSure, Henderson wins Chesmonts again with 36 points. Next preview up, Unionville and Kennett.
DeleteSo I have 6 Ches-Mont teams to go and they are: Unionville, Kennett, Henderson, Downingtown East, Shanahan and Great Valley. I was intending to do Henderson last, because I want to do a good job with that preview and really take time to dig in on the research. Look for Unionville or Kennett tomorrow though.
Delete-Cummings, WC East
John Lewis goes 1:50.01
ReplyDeleteHere is the Unionville preview:
ReplyDeleteUnionville (32nd at Districts, 8th at Ches-Monts)
Despite initial appearances, last year Unionville was largely a pack-running school. Colin McDonald was their top guy and usually a minute or more faster than the rest of the team, but if you look at 2-5 splits Unionville posted 20 seconds at Districts and 16 seconds on their home course at Ches-Monts. 2-7 for Unionville all came in in the low to mid-17s at Districts last year and were within 35 seconds of each other. The problem this year is that Unionville only returns three of that District team.
Here are their top 6 returners with current grade and last year’s District time:
Adam Stautberg, SR 17:00
Matt Stalford, SR 17:01
Ryan Andes, SR 17:17
Michael DelVecchio, JR 17:28
Sam Miller, SR 17:39
Ziggy Fisher, SR 17:53
If you were counting, there are 5 seniors there. So Unionville’s team will be experienced this year, but not building towards the future. That’s also a 39 second 1-5 spread, which is good and could set them up for another nice pack running year. Stautberg made big strides last year, dropping 1:07 off his 5k, 25 seconds off his mile (down to 4:40) and also 25 seconds off his 3200 (down to 10:04). I don’t think he’ll drop the same amounts of time this year, but he could run in the mid to possibly low-16s. Ryan Andes also improved to a 4:45 mile this past track season, and I think he will be their number two around 16:40. If you put Stautberg at 16:25, Andes at 16:40 and the 5th man at 17:10, then the team will be around 22nd or 23rd at Districts this year, which is good improvement, but I don’t see them contending for a top 10 spot in the District. In the Ches-Mont I think Unionville will be somewhere between 6th and 8th. I know I predicted Avon Grove at 7th and I think Unionville won’t beat out Avon Grove, but I’d say Avon Grove has a very good chance of finishing higher and if some of the other top few teams stumble this year then Unionville can definitely improve on 8th from last year.
-Cummings, WC East
I wish my name was Ziggy.
DeleteUnionville / Patton had an 8th grader last year that won the Ches-mont Jr high championship xc meet. Don't know what his name is and he didn't run track. But he has promise.
DeleteChesmonts sent four teams to states two years ago, this year it's looking like one, maybe two.
Delete2012 was the strongest I've ever seen the Chesmont league, which is traditionally very strong. This year might be the weakest I've ever seen it
DeleteChesmonts took 11 of the top 23 that year at districts.
DeleteI was reading through the comments and a week ago someone brought up the 4x8. RTJ mentioned CB East, Pennsbury, Malvern Prep, and State College. Who does State College have? Aren't you forgetting Carlisle and Penncrest? On Carlisle you have Brehm - an absolute stud who is very dangerous and on Penncrest you have Kamat and Emmanuel who have run 1:56.57 and 1:55.91.
ReplyDeleteBrehm is the only guy on Carlisle with stellar 800 creds, they have a 52 400 guy who could move up and possibly have success, but as of now Brehm is their only sub 2 guy. Penncrest is decent, they do have Kamat and Emmanuel who you mentioned above, they would have solid 3rd and 4th guys in Brendan Hanna and Colin Tyson at 2:02 and 2:04 respectively. I would watch for Pennridge again, they always show up with strong 4x8 teams and they're bringing back 5 or 6 sub 2:04 guys, including a few legs of their 7:45 team from this past year.
DeleteDon't doubt Bensalem, we're a very deep team when it comes to middle distance and we always put a strong 4X8 and 4X4 team together
DeleteHere is the Kennett preview:
ReplyDeleteKennett (31st at Districts, 10th at Ches-Monts)
Kennett and Unionville had two very similar teams last year. Both were led by a clear front runner (Chris Kienzle for Kennett). Both had four seniors on varsity at Districts so they will only have three returners off of that team. Both had number two guys with potential to move up and drop good amounts of time (Austin Maxwell for Kennett was just a freshman last year). And while Kennett finished 31st at Districts (one behind Rustin), Unionville was right behind them at 32nd (Unionville did beat both Rustin and Kennett at home at Ches-Monts though). The one difference is that Kennett did not have much of a pack-running squad last year like Unionville and Rustin did to certain extents.
Here are Kennett’s top 5 returners, with current grades and last year’s District time:
Austin Maxwell, SO 16:46
Jon Ganly, SR 17:07
Cody Brown, SO 18:31
Max Breen, SR 18:59
Jack Driesback, SO 19:14
Unfortunately this group is very, very spread out, so that will make it hard for them to match last year’s finishes. While pack-running and good 1-5 or 2-5 splits are not essential, a 2-5 split of 2:07 is hard to cope with. They do have three sophomores in the top 5 though, and they have some potential to drop time. Austin Maxwell’s 4:58 and 10:24 over the track seasons are decent marks for a freshman, but they aren’t consistent with low 16s so I’d expect him at around 16:30. John Ganly also had a couple of 4:42 miles this past spring so he could be moving down into the mid to upper 16s as well. A lot will depend on 3-5 for this team though, so it’ll be interesting to see how they progress through the season. I’m going to predict them at 38th at Districts and 11th at Ches-Monts.
-Cummings, WC East
A lot of previews for the teams out east, and being recently graduated from a western PA school, I'll throw out a little preview for the WPIAL. I'll mainly focus on individuals returning from last year until some meets get underway and the team picture can fall into place a little bit.
ReplyDeleteThe top 5 returners are Matt McGoey and Scott Seel from North Allegheny, Jeff Van Kooten from Pittsburgh Central Catholic, Todd Gunzenhauser of Mt. Lebanon and Tanner Quiggle from Seneca Valley. At the start of track season, I would have said that the WPIAL was McGoey's to lose, he ran very well at the end of the season, dropping a 9:12 at states along with a slew of 9:15-9:18 times. That being said, Jeff Van Kooten dropped a 4:17 on his own at his district qualifying meet. And then went 4:14 at states. His cross country credentials are no joke either, he came from a 6th place finish at WPIALs to a 17th place finish at states, beating out the likes of Ethan Martin, Seamus Love, etc. If he can come on strong at the end like he did last year, he will be your 2014 WPIAL xc champion. Todd Gunzenhauser went 4:28 at WPIALs in track, and much like Van Kooten, came on strong at the end of xc. He ran 16:38 at the slippery rock course, only 8 seconds slower than he ran at the notoriously fast Red, White and Blue course (Colin Martin ran 15:18 at RWB, then 16:04 at SR). Tanner Quiggle has run 4:28 and 9:36, along with a 14th place finish at districts.
My deep sleeper pick for now would be Ethan Linderman from Canon McMillan. He finished 16th at the meet last season in 16:48. He has PRs of 9:39 (to grab the final medal spot at track wpials), milesplit has him at 4:38 for 1600, but he ran 4:31 at wpial qualifiers and 16:15 at 5k. He shows up big when it matters, and with Canon Mac a sleeper for a team spot to states, don't count him out.
Splits on John Lewis? Assuming somewhere around 53-57 but anyone have exact?
ReplyDelete-RTJ
Forrest, are there going to be interviews from individuals and teams like there were last year?
ReplyDeleteYa some XC Talks
DeleteDowningtown East (16th at Districts, 4th at Ches-Monts)
ReplyDeleteLast year there was a lot of talk about Billy Caldwell and Downingtown East, but there was a good squad behind him. The team edged out Great Valley at Ches-Monts and had a decent showing at Districts. Their District team last year though was made of four seniors, a junior and two sophomores, so there will be some gaps to fill in this year. Let’s take a look at how they might do that:
Here are their top 6 returners with current grade and last year’s district time:
Keelan O’Reilly, SR 16:30
Braden Dommel, JR 16:57
Dylan McEvoy, SO 17:18
Alex Ochner, JR 17:20
Dylan Jackson, SO 17:26
James Strommer, JR 17:53
There are a lot of young guys on DTE’s squad this year, and most of this team’s fortune will ride on how well they progress through the season. Keelan O’Reilly had a 2:00 800 this past May, but a majority of his track times are from his freshman and sophomore years (he did post a 4:38 as a freshman), so I think he missed most of the past track season. I think he will lead the team this year and be around 16:15. Behind him none of the guys were terribly impressive on the track, but they should be able to keep improving this season to put 5 guys under 17:10 if not 17:00. Alex Ochner could also be a guy to watch for them as he ran under 17:20 twice last year. Come championship season I think this team will take between 15th and 17th at Districts, right about the same as last year, and between 5th and 7th at Ches-Monts.
-Cummings, WC East
I ran ten today, I'm in great shape.
DeleteEasy day
DeleteSo below is the Bishop Shanahan preview. That leaves just two left, Great Valley and Henderson.
ReplyDeleteBishop Shanahan (40th at Districts, 11th at Ches-Monts)
Shanahan has lacked a good front-runner for the past few years, and I think the lack of a low stick has hurt the team somewhat both in scoring and appearance. But last year they had a pack of their top 5 guys all in the 17’s at Districts. They will return four from that District squad and have a chance to improve their finishes this year.
Here are their top 6 returners, with current grades and last year’s District times:
Jake McGranaghan, SR 17:08
Chris Kolimago, JR 17:11
Domenic Zengel, SR 17:40
Sean Kelly, JR 18:11
Seamus Fromhartz, JR 18:16
Seamus Breslin, JR 18:43
McGranaghan (who it doesn’t look like ran track) and Kolimago (who did 4:42 twice this past spring) should be able to push each other to get into the 16’s, to somewhere around 16:35 or 16:40. Quite incredibly, that improvement alone in last year’s race would drop 200 points off of Shanahan’s score and improve them to 35th. The 3-5 guys also look like they will at least be as good as if not better than Shanahan’s 3-5 last year. Zengel should be able to go low 17’s, and then Kelly and Fromhartz could drop down to about 17:35 to 17:45. And four of the top six this year look to be juniors, so Shanahan could be setting itself up for an even better year next year. With this steadily improving squad, Shanahan will improve this year, and I think they will jump up to 34th at Districts and 10th at Ches-Monts.
-Cummings, WC East
Below is the Great Valley preview. That leaves just one left, the Henderson preview which promises to be good. I'm hoping to get that up before the end of the day Saturday, but I may not be able to get it up until Sunday.
ReplyDeleteGreat Valley (7th at Districts, 5th at Ches-Monts)
I don’t think anybody showed up more at Districts than Great Valley last year. After taking 5th at Ches-Monts, Great Valley was the 2nd best Ches-Mont team at Districts, leapfrogging both Downingtown schools and the WC East squad I was part of. They were also 14 points away from earning a trip to the hills of Hershey. They ran in a strong pack, posting 39 seconds 1-5 at Districts and only 52 seconds 1-7. For as good as the Great Valley squad was at Districts, they graduated all 7 of the 7 guys who ran varsity at Districts for them. So this year will be about finding the parts to replace those guys.
Here are their top 6 returners, with current grades and last year’s District time:
Eli Bravo, SR 17:14
Mike Miller, SR 17:23
Mateo Castano, SR 17:26
Mitchell Warner, SR 17:31
Eric Wang, JR 17:37
Tommy Walsh, JR 17:45
This is a great example of depth on a cross country team. If you can lose your entire varsity squad and already have another 7 guys under 18:00, that’s impressive. Technically their current 1-5 split is 23 seconds, so they should definitely have a pack this year. The big question becomes, how low does the pack go? If the pack only slightly improves, then they could be looking at 25th at Districts. If the pack drops a lot of time, they could be 10th. These guys may not have posted great track times, but Great Valley has a well-deserved reputation of always coming to compete in October and November, so don’t discount this squad. However, despite the good pack running, I think the lack of low sticks at Districts (where they had Matt Willig and Garrett Zatlin last year) will keep Great Valley from making it back to 7th. I’m going to predict about 17th at Districts and between 4th and 6th in the Ches-Mont.
-Cummings, WC East
Don't forget about Joe Ellis. He was 16:33 at districts last year. He returns. So only 6/7 graduate
DeleteAlso, don't forget Charlie Feeney. 4:35 at chesmonts in the mile
DeleteJoe Ellis is listed as class of 2014 on milesplit, but that could be a mistake. So if he returns he should be quite good and might be a top runner for Great Valley.
DeleteCharlie Feeney also looks to be good, he must have gotten injured at the end of last XC season since he didn't run Ches-Monts or Districts, but he does have a 17:20 to his name from sophomore year and that 4:35 in the mile. He will be an added piece to that pack.
Thanks for pointing these guys out to me.
-Cummings, WC East
As you mentioned, Great Valley always peaks at the right time. In September and early October they are not usually very impressive but they kick it into high gear and usually crank out fast times come championship season. I look forward to seeing what this batch of kids can do.
DeletePeaking is overrated, if they were another week ahead in training last year they probably make states.
DeleteIt wasn't that GV peaked too late, it's that 5/7 members of their varsity were plagued with injuries across the whole season and Charlie Feeny, who would have been top 4 on varsity had to end his season. Matt Willig, Garrett Zatlin, Thomas Doran, and Joe Ellis all had to take time off to heal and that's what backed them up so much. If they stay injury free this year I feel that Feeny, Ellis, and Bravo could lead this team to a top 7 placing in districts.
DeleteIf you look at the middle school results Zatlin had a little brother that ran 4:54 in 8th grade. Could be a contributing factor as well
DeleteIf Joe ellis and Charlie Feeney are included on that list, GV could surprise many people. And Zatlin's little brother could slip into the top 5 for GV.
DeletePeaking at the right time is very important. You may have a point that GV possibly peaked a week too late
ReplyDeleteAsk every professional athlete and all will say that peaking at the right time is very important.
DeleteSorry, my comment was supposed to be in the GV preview thread. It was in response to the gentleman (or lady) who stated that peaking is overrated
DeleteHere is the Henderson preview, which marks the end of the Ches-Mont previews. Thanks for everyone who read them, I hope you enjoyed them as much as I did. Now Henderson is a controversial squad this year, so hit that reply button and let me know what I got right or wrong, and who I overlooked that may break out for them this year.
ReplyDeleteHenderson (12th at NXN, 1st at States, 1st at Districts, 1st at Ches-Monts)
I think everybody knows what Henderson did last year. If you don’t, well… you’ve lived under a rock. They won states with 60 points and their top 6 guys medaled. They easily won Ches-Monts and Districts and represented PA at Nationals. I won’t even go into the many accolades of their individual runners. What has also been talked about a lot is that 6 of their varsity runners graduated, so there are many questions about who will be running varsity for them this year. Let’s take a look at who that could be.
Here are Henderson’s top runners with current grades and last year’s District times:
Alex Knapp, SR 15:38
Will Swart, SR 16:32
Gordy Barchet, SR 16:57
Jacob Reid, SO 17:08
Ben Berkman, SO 17:23
Connor McSwain, JR 17:34
Alex Knapp will lead this team and possibly the Ches-Mont league (remember he is one of the three in contention for the Ches-Mont title with Eric Diestelow and Josh Smith). 15:38 is already quick and he improved this spring to 9:32 in the 3200 and a 4:26. He could be as low as 15:10 I think, but more realistically I would put him at 15:20 at Districts.
Will Swart had a decent track season, he improved to a 4:34 and 9:50. I think he will improve nicely again this season as the whole team pushes itself to fill in the gaps left behind, but I don’t see him breaking out, probably low 16’s.
I’m not sure what happened to Gordy Barchet last XC season, rumors were injury, but he has a 16:08 at Districts from sophomore year and did a 4:30 this past May. I’m going to give him a mulligan for last year’s XC season and say he’ll get down below 16, probably to 15:45.
Not much on Jacob Reid other than his great race at Districts, 17:08 is a good time for a freshman. I know a lot of Henderson’s younger guys sometimes don’t get many races in track season because they aren’t on the A team and Henderson focuses heavily on training instead of racing. Ben Berkman has a 4:53 to his name, which is also a good mark for a freshman. There will also be several other runners who could make marks this season as Henderson always seems to come up with new guys. Forrest had mentioned Spencer Smucker as a promising freshman.
Of Reid, Berkman, McSwain, and other runners, at least two of them will get down to around 16:40 or lower. That squad will be in contention for 4th or 5th at Districts. I think it will take a small miracle for Henderson to successfully defend the District champion title they have owned since 2009. But you also can’t doubt a team that has made States every year since 2008 and in 8 of the past 10 years. This school has an incredibly deep running tradition and arguably the best coach in PA. So I think Henderson will take 2nd at Ches-Monts this year, with an outside chance at winning it. I’m also predicting 4th or 5th at Districts and a return to States, where they will be between 6th and 10th.
-Cummings, WC East
G Barchet missed most of the season last year with a stress fracture in his back. Jacob Reid stopped running after xc last year and will not be back this season.
DeleteChris, I enjoyed reading your previews, and they were very well researched. I have to disagree with the 2nd at Ches-Monts, but we will see. Also, why in the world would a 17:08 freshman stop running?
DeleteVery good previews. Chesmonts is wide open the year, DTW would be my pick but there's five other teams who could win it. Individually Knapp, Diestelow and Smith seem like the favorites but it wouldn't be a shock at all someone develops this year and takes it.
DeleteGood Henderson preview, I absolutely agree with it. I see Henderson returning to states with a squad very similar to WCE's team from 2012. Coaching is the key this year if a 2nd squad from the Chesmonts wants to join DTW at states. Henderson has it, we all know that. Smucker is an incoming 4:40something miler as a 8th grader. I see him making the back end of Henderson's varsity squad this year and being their leader for the next 3 years.
DeleteGreat stuff,
NDR
Jacob Reid stopped running to concentrate on wrestling full time. Also, Steven Heck was an 5:00 miler in 8th grade last year and may emerge this year. Finally, I would be very surprised if Spencer Smucker was not mid 16's by seasons end if not sooner.
DeleteI wouldn’t crown WCH Chesmonts champs or state qualifiers just yet. They lost 6 of 7 varsity. Knapp is the only varsity runner returning. He’s a great XC runner but he didn’t really didn’t show signs of improving on the track, which is sometimes an indicator of a better XC year to come. Training with last years team would make anyone better but now it’s much different. It may be a struggle to get back to that level when he’s now in the frontrunner role.
DeleteSo if Knapp gets back to last years level, and if Barchet comes back from injury to reach his potential, and if Swart can drop down another 30 seconds and if this freshman can run at a top level and if two or three other guys develop, and if they avoid injuries, then yes, they’ll make states. That’s a lot of if’s.
They’ve got good coaching but some expectations might be unrealistic, a coach can only do so much. Right now its probably 3rd at Chesmonts and sitting out states.
yeah? well who do you think gets 2nd?
DeleteTop 5 teams at Chesmonts: DTW,WCH,AV,GV,DTE
DeleteDTW, Coatesville, AG, WCH, GV
DeleteWCH did not have 6 medalists in last years State meet. They had 3-Russell, R. Barchet and Knapp.
DeleteCollins medaled too so it was 4 WCH medalists. The top 20 at Districts medal, not the top 25. It's actually kind of stupid, it should be the top 25.
DeleteThink he meant medalling for states.
DeleteDon't think WCH will catch DTW. I'd expect them to battle Coatesville for 2nd (give the edge to WCH based on Coach K). WCR will be fourth. With DTE, WCE, and AG for 5th thru 7th. Don't think it is GV's year this year.
WCH did have 'only' 3 medalists at states. The team scoring shows 6 guys in the top 25 but it's the individual race placing that counts for medaling. So Collins for example came in 23rd for team scoring but actually finished 37th in the race, which does not medal. Guys like Colin Abert qualified for the race as an individual, finished 2nd and medaled, but his place didn't count for team scoring. It can be confusing.
DeleteNo one in Chesmonts can beat Conestoga.
DeleteDT West over Stoga
Delete^^ - stoga runner
Delete^ - dtw runner
Chris, could you give us your Ches-Mont individual top 10 and your district one top 5?
ReplyDeleteForrest, any comments on Milesplits top individual and team lists for the Northeast?
ReplyDeleteAs I've told Lex and Don on multiple occasions I feel as though they're useless and misleading and frankly lazy. I wish they would spend time and do analysis, but it seems they are not interested in that side of reporting.
DeleteIt's about 2 weeks until the first meets start and theres no posts about the XC season yet...
ReplyDeleteHey everyone,
ReplyDeleteThere's a subreddit for PA High School Cross Country and Distance Track. If anyone wants to post anything about XC such as predictions or opinions, the link is right here http://www.reddit.com/r/pahsxctf/
Have fun,
PAHSXCTF