Somebody asked for my take on the District One top 5, and I wasn't sure if they meant team or individual, but I took a look at who the top 5 individuals could be. I wrote up my predictions for 1 through 5 at Districts, and then ranked the 7 other guys who I looked at as possible candidates for the top 5 to get the dozen you see below. The 5k times listed are from Districts last year, while the mile, 3200 and 800 times are based on PR's.
1.
Sam Webb, SR, Pennsbury 15:32 4:19 9:08
15:32 is already the second fastest
time in the district, but then Webb made lots of noise in the 3200 this spring,
taking 3rd at Districts and 6th
at States where he ran 9:08. And he even did 4:19 as a sophomore. Webb’s been a big name for a few years now, but that
state 3200 performance puts him among the best of the best in my mind, and I
can’t wait to see what he does if he builds on that this season.
2.
Casey Comber, SR, Hatboro 15:34 4:19 9:17
Right behind Sam Webb at Districts last
year, and then went on to an impressive 13th place at States. But
this guy really broke out last year, getting huge drops in 5k, mile and 3200. Comber
also took 8th at States for the 3200. It’s hard to imagine him
having big improvements this year as well since his times are already so fast,
but even slight improvements will keep him among the very best of Pennsylvania.
3.
Jake Brophy, JR, CB East 15:24 4:24 9:28 (*9:15 3k conversion)
He took 4th at Districts in XC
last year and is the fastest returner from that race. Since he ran 15:53 as a
freshman Brophy’s been on the map as a star runner and he only improved last
year, moving up to take 8th at States in XC and 3rd in
the 3k. Last outdoor season wasn’t that great for him, he may have been
injured, but I took the liberty of converting his 8:41 3k to a 9:15 3200. The
question with Brophy is how much more he can improve after two stellar years,
but I think he will continue to get better. I put him behind Webb and Comber
because those guys had great track seasons this spring, but Brophy will
definitely compete with them and may take the District title for his own.
4.
Andrew Marston, SR, Conestoga 15:50 4:20 9:17
If you don’t know him already, just
remember Marston as the guy who took 18th at Districts… and then 9th
at States one week later. After that huge performance at Hershey he just about
never looked back, improving by a lot across the board and racing in the State
3k and 3200. He will be a guy to watch this season along with the Conestoga
team. While I think he is a few steps behind the top three at this point, it
wouldn’t be impossible for him to climb the few more obstacles between him and
a District title, and I think he has a decent shot at finishing higher than 4th.
5.
Paul Power, SR, Spring Ford 15:36 4:24 9:38
(*9:30 3k conversion)
Paul Power improved from good to
great last year, earning a medal up at Hershey (placed 20th),
running under 9:00 indoors and getting down to 4:24 in the mile. The 9:38 came
from his sophomore year, so I converted last year’s 3k time for something more
recent. He hasn’t had the kind of breakout improvements Webb or Comber enjoyed,
and didn’t have the kind of overwhelming XC season Brophy had, but he’s still
an excellent runner so I think he will be a player at Districts again this
year, competing for a top 5 spot. While his track times may not match a guy
running in the low 15’s, I still think Power will improve to about 15:15 this
year.
6.
Eric Diestelow, SR, WC East 15:48 4:22 9:38
7.
Alex Knapp, SR, Henderson 15:38 4:27 9:32
8.
Jonathan Perlman, SR, Lower Merion 15:53 4:22 9:34
9.
Josh Smith, SR, Avon Grove 15:45 4:35 1:58
10.
Alek Sauer, SR, Pennsbury 15:55 4:21 1:54
11.
Connor Holm, SR, Radnor 16:04 4:20 1:56
12.
Brian Arita, SR, Council Rock North 15:56 4:35 9:41
-Cummings, WC East
-Cummings, WC East
Cummings, I respect your WCE team spirit, but what's not so acceptable is your downright disdain of WCH. Knapp, as you well know, is not only ahead of your boy Diestelow, but he's also likely in the top 5.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the input and you certainly have a valid point about Knapp possibly being higher than I have him ranked. I believe I defended my position on Diestelow in the Ches-Mont top 10 list. You don't have to agree with my analysis, but it is there if you're wondering why I have Diestelow ranked where he is. "disdain of WCH" isn't accurate, since I predicted WCH at 2nd in the Ches-Mont which some might consider too high. But I think the real issue here is about how to rank Knapp in relation to Diestelow.
DeleteIf you think that Knapp will follow in the form of Russell or Barchet, he certainly would be higher, but from my personal experience racing all three of those gentlemen, Knapp is a completely different runner. From what I've seen to now about Knapp, I fully believe Diestelow is more likely to beat Knapp than vice versa, and therefore I have Diestelow over Knapp. Is it close? Very. Do I understand why a lot of people would pick Knapp over Diestelow? Of course. Am I intentionally pushing Diestelow up or Knapp down? No. I'm just looking at what I've seen from these guys differently than some other people might. (Also, no, I am not basing these times on Bulldog if you were wondering. People have questioned the accuracy of some of the courses, so I have not and will not base predictions on the times at Abington, Rose Tree, Red White and Blue, and Oakbourne, for the sake of avoiding last year's controversy again.)
-Cummings, WC East
No need to justify you posts, criticism comes with the territory so kudus for putting yourself out there and giving us something to talk about. Diestelow over Knapp is certainly a real possibility so nothing wrong with picking one over the other. Deistelow had the stronger track season which should carry to XC. Knapp is real good too, so it could go either way. But one big consideration is Knapp is not training with 6 sub 16:00 guys this year so things might be a little different for him in practice where he'll be leading now. WCH dominance is over, they barely outran perianal middle of the pack WCR last week and in the glory days they put 10 guys in front of their WCR 1st. The WCH fans need to get used to it, things have changed.
DeleteI think your Rustin argument is misplaced. Rustin attended the annual XC camp along with WCH, DTW, Malvern, and Avon Grove. Rustin, Vogt in particular, seems to have greatly improved. Couldn't these results from the other week show that Rustin is the real deal. Diestelow also lost his training partner and his supporting crew is quite a bit weaker than that of Knapp's. I still think WCH is at worst 2nd in ches-monts and that Rustin is a very strong competitor for third in the league, along with Coatesville and Avon Grove.
Delete^ Yet again, WCH runners say that some team is going to be good because they trained with the great WCH summer camp. Peaking in August is irrelevant.
DeleteWCE xc spends their summers stalking the WCH team. Then they oh so cleverly post stuff about WCH runners to appear like they are posting as a credible source. Most of their posts are garbage and come from their deep, abiding jealousy of the WCH program. Being like 1/2 mile away from WCH, they give a sad vibe of being on the outside looking in.
DeleteWCH needs to realize they’re not only no longer the best team in the state, they’re not even the best team in West Chester.
DeleteWCH keeps it quiet, it's the rest of the Chesmont teams saying they brag and trash talk. I don't actually think that's true though.
Delete.
I am from a WC school and it's pretty obvious to all of us that Malvern is the best right now. Henderson has a huge XC team (at least 60?) and tremendous coaching, so they should always be on the radar as you never know who steps up.
East doesn't make a lot of noise other than the occasional Cummings or Diestelow, I just don't feel XC is very well supported at that school and maybe that's reflected in their results. Rustin has talent, but I hate to say it-questionable coaching.
Shanahan has some possible potential but it's like those guys have no clue what it takes. Do they even run over the summer?
That's all I got regarding the WC schools. Lots of misinformation out there along with lots of talent.
Yeah, so true about East, oh, except for when East went to states as a team in 2012, oh yeah, and when they won states in 2005. East has a long tradition of XC excellence.
DeleteToo bad no one at East gives a crap.
DeleteEast is home grown and doesn't recruit like a certain team to the west with connections.
DeleteAnd what team might that be?
DeleteNone of the public schools recruit. But perpetuating that myth seems to bring some solace to the surrounding Chesmont teams as a way to explain how mediocre they are. B*#ch, Please.
DeleteStuff happens with the big programs.
DeleteWho is the "big program" you refer to?
DeleteTo insinuate that stuff happens at Henderson is laughable. Relatively speaking, It' a small school - more like AA size. Secondly, running is not the big deal folks seem to try to say it is at Henderson. 2 - time State champions and nobody gives a crap. They are far more interested in football& lax. That suburban legend of their recruiting exploits is tiring.
Actually its true. My wife and I were recruited 20 years ago to move to the WCH school district and sire a son for the master xc race. Apparently we were not the only ones as others seem to have done the same. Its the only plausible explanation other than perhaps maybe coaching.
DeleteWere you given a job you know where too?
DeleteWell no. As the leader of the Henderson xc "Dark Council" explained; we must not be that obvious. It turns out that we were required to find our own jobs, and pay thousands in property taxes to maintain the facad of a normal family. However we were promised that literally dozens of t shirts would be provided once our xc sleeper cell was activated.
DeleteWait a minute, if sleeper XC cells were planted 20 years ago that means some of those of the XC master race would have inadvertently matriculated to Rustin once that school was opened. Yet that school has had nothing. It'd be impossible to have foreseen the new school opening development. It seems something much more sinister going on here.
DeleteYes, wcasd school redistricting is just a cover to realign schools so that the best xc runners flow to Henderson . Clearly this conspiracy goes all they way to the top.
Delete^ Oh that reminds me. All Henderson Dark Council members, this months meeting will be held Thursday night at iron hill brewery. Please have your list of potential recruits and some t shirts to be used for enticement. Also suggestions on which sleeper cells to activate next would be appreciated.
DeleteSsshhhhhh.
Delete^Gotta agree. Unless your basing this on not-even-close-to-a-5k Bulldog Invite times, no way Diestelow is ahead of at least 3 of those guys, including Knapp. In true to form WCE fashion, he'll start his season strong and peak in early October.
ReplyDelete^ If he's not in a boot by then.
DeleteBoth Arita and Knapp have run faster. Knapp was 4:26 for a full mile (~4:24 high for 1600) while Arita was 4:27. Smith also ran sub 4:30 I believe. There are certain races that don't show up online. Just thought that was worth noting. Also, we should note that Sauer split 1:52 at the start of the day when he was fresh. I also think there's no way Brophy does not win. His outdoor season was a sacrifice to a succesful 4x8. Just throwing some stuff out there! Thanks for the predictions!
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to give the runners there credit that they deserve. I agree with the rest. Thanks for the predictions. It was a pleasure racing you this year in xc Cummings and I look forward to racing you in the ACC this following year!
ReplyDeleteHey guys, so I’m not sure how we’ll do this just yet, but for now I’m just going to post in the comments with my responses to Articles written by the people I’ll be blogging with (new blogger will be announced this weekend).
ReplyDeleteRemember this is how I see people placing at Districts, not where they are in the state.
1. Jake Brophy: Honestly, Jake Brophy is the future of PA running. I’ve never seen a kid like this come out of PA in a long, long time. Maybe I’m too hyped up, but I think he could be better than Tony Russell. Running 15:24 for 5k as a sophomore on grass is crazy, even if it’s just at Lehigh. I think he runs sub 15:10 this year if he wants it. I can’t wait to watch him and Colin Abert go at it at the state course. He’s got both speed and endurance, and I can’t imagine him losing this race. (Hopefully we see them both race at Paul Short...)
2. Sam Webb: Well, I’m finally coming around. Etrain has been a big fan of Webb for a while now, but I’ve always been fairly skeptical. He was a beast in middle school and I thought he was going to peak as a sophomore and Brian Arita would beat him this year. Obviously there is still time for this, but I’m going to be a REALLY REALLY late bangwaggoner here and say that Webb will keep improving this year. Last season he just got better running 15:32 at Districts for 7th place, although he had a lower finish at the state meet than his sophomore year as he placed 19th. His 1:57 split into a 9:08 at states is just ridiculous and the kid is a gamer. That state meet changed my mind.
3. Casey Comber – I labored over this quite a bit, but Comber was just such a stud last year and he continued to improve on the track. 15:34 at Districts, 13th at states in XC, 4:19/9:17 and then a sub 15 5k on the track is really impressive. He thinks of Brophy as a rival and is going to work his butt off to ensure that Brophy doesn’t get too far away. Like I’ve stated before, he’s got great coaching over t Hatboro and I think he’ll be a beast next XC season.
4. Alex Knapp – West Chester Henderson is going to need a senior leader and it’ll be Knapp. He’s got two places to go; either step up into a massive gab and seal it or fall into the pit that Russell, Barchet, and the rest of the Henderson crew left. I think he’ll make the transition. Coach Kelly is a great leader and coach and he’ll have Knapp ready to roll next year as this Henderson team will strive for greatness. 15:38 is no joke and he’s a returning state outdoor medalist.
5. Paul Power – I’m a big believer in Paul Power. He consistently showed up last season and threw down some awesome doubles. He doesn’t have the track times that make you jump out of your seat, but he placed 20th at Hershey and seems to always bring it.
6. Alek Sauer – Sauer surprised a lot of people last season at Districts with his strong 26th place finish in 15:55. Now a 1:52.9 split and 1:54 open double later, Sauer clearly has everyone’s attention. Pennsbury is going to need two low sticks to outlast deep teams such as Downingtown West and Council Rock North and Sauer will provide that 1-2 punch with Webb at Districts, which will propel this team to a strong finish.
7. Andrew Marston – Yes. He’s 20th in the region and I’m a huge Marston fan, but the way he runs isn’t conducive to succeeding at Lehigh. This maybe be an exaggeration of his place, but all Marston will need to do at Districts is pull his teammates along and I don’t see him going out faster than 5 flat and just slowly catching guys, but getting out kicked by Sauer. Will he beat a majority of these guys ahead of him at states? Most definitely.
--ForrestCRN (rest posted below... I ran out of characters)
8. Eric Diestelow – I’m not surprised that Chris has him so high on his list. He’s been training with Cummings all summer and knows what type of shape he’s in. You guys can knock WCE as much as you want, but Cummings ran 15:30 last season at Lehigh and placed 7th along with finishing 12th at the state meet. That’s freaking incredible. Diestelow’s got a lot of speed and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised to see him place top 6 at Districts in a similar 15:30 effort next season.
ReplyDelete9. Brian Arita – Arita is an aspiring medalist from a historic Council Rock North squad. He just ran 16:25 for 5k at our Friends Alumni race (faster than Ross Wilson last season). I think he’ll be up challenging with Diestelow to break 15:30 and beat Sauer who will probably outkick him at leagues. He’s got a fire in him and he’s leading a very talented and young CRN team. I’m excited for him.
10. Jonathan Perlman – I wanted to see more of a breakout season during track from Perlman, but 4:22 and 9:34 aren’t bad at all from him. I think he’s really talented and I think he’ll do some great things during XC. I see him medaling at states in the 20s and he is part of an extremely deep district race.
11. Josh Smith – Smith came out of nowhere last year when he shot out of a cannon during the first few meets. He stayed on top of his game all XC long and ran 15:45 at Districts. As I was slightly disappointed by not seeing sub 4:20 out of Perlman, I was very underwhelmed by Smith’s performances on the track. Maybe he was injured or sick, I’m not sure, but I didn’t see enough on the track to boost him on this list, despite him being the 6th returner from last year’s race at Lehigh.
12. Ryan Tung – Tung game out of nowhere last season for North Penn and ran 15:57 at Districts in a great effort to help him team almost make the state championships. They graduated almost everyone from their squad, so Tung will no longer have the talented Ryan Grace pushing him, however, like Grace, I think Tung will have a greatly great senior year and he’ll capitalize at the District and State championships.
-- ForrestCRN
Well done, Forrest.
DeletePersonally I think the 3 Chesmont guys (Knapp, Diestelow, and Smith) are extremely close. I'd have them at 6a, 6b, and 6c because they're that close. What hurts Knapp may be the lack of training partners that are as good as him this year. Last year he had Russell and Reiny to chase. But, he'll run even faster than that 15:38 and he should still be on the cusp of the top 5. I'm curious to see if Diestelow will benefit from a good track season (since he didn't play baseball) and like you said, training with Cummings all summer is definitely a plus. And If I'm Josh Smith, I'm using all these blogs as motivators. The guy ran 15:45 and may not be getting enough respect.
Great stuff as usual.
NDR
Yes Knapp has been training as the new # 1 runner for WCH all summer, but he has been joined most of the summer by Hoey, R. Barchet, Collins, Stratman, and most of the old training group that have been around to train with. Factor that, Jack!
Deleteawesome will they be running with him during the season too. that's a big no! I'm sure that's what he was referring to so factor that!
DeleteI think the poster was responding to a reference Forrest made that Diestelow has had a great training partner this summer in Cummings. With that being said, the case could certainly be made that Knapp has likely benefitted from training this summer with guys like Hoey, Barchet, et al...arguably the best in the state.
DeleteTo say Jake Brophy is the greatest thing to come out of PA in a long time is ludicrous. He's a good runner, but did not run faster than Ritz, Brehm, Hoey or James as a sophomore. It's great that he split 1:55, but what has he done in the open 800 and has he broken 4:20 in the 1600? I wish him well, and I'm sure that he would agree, but you haven't been following the sport for very long if you think he's one of the best in a long time. Did you ever hear of Tom Mallon? He's only been out of HS for 5 years. I believe that he was a 3 time State Champ in the 800 outdoors.
DeleteMaybe get some talk outside of Chesmonts and District one
ReplyDeleteAs I said above, we've got a 3rd guy on board from out west who will put up a 'West' Preview this weekend, and I'll be doing a 'Central' Preview this weekend as well :)
DeleteLots to look forward to guys!
Hey where can we see results of that friend alumni race?
ReplyDeleteSadly I don't believe the results of that race ever go up online. Maybe you could grab them from a CRN runner, but I don't feel at liberty to release those results on here unless one of teams runners feels it is acceptable for me to do so or they do it themselves. But I was highly impressed by what I saw.
ReplyDeleteNot even a clue, Forrest?
DeleteAll in all, looks like a tame bunch. I'd predict boys PA XC this year is in a bit of a lull.
ReplyDelete