Hello everybody. Forrest offered that I could help write for and administer the blog, and I think it will be fun so I accepted. If you are not familiar with who I am here's a brief story: My name is Christopher Cummings and I graduated this year from West Chester East High School. I competed in 10 seasons of high school running and managed for the other two while I had fractures in my ankles. I consider myself a true long distance runner (my favorite race is the half-marathon) and I love the sport, which is one of the reasons I am writing for the blog. I am attending Clemson University this fall and will at least be training with the team if not competing for them.
Okay, so someone asked for Ches-Mont individual top 10 and
District One top 5. So I’ve just gotten the individual top 10 done, and here it
is. I will try to get around to writing a District One top 5 as well. At the
bottom is a short list of other guys to watch, and, as always, these are a few
of the guys who were very close to making the list, and could definitely move
up this season. Also look out for a couple of guys coming out of nowhere to
break out this season, that always seems to happen.
Ches-Mont Individual top 10:
1.
Eric Diestelow, SR, WC East 15:48
If you think this pick is biased,
you would be correct. In my mind it’s very close between Diestelow, Alex Knapp
and Josh Smith, and in that case I’m going with my good teammate. But a strong
argument can be made for Eric as Ches-Mont number one. 15:48 is a competitive
PR compared with the other two, and Diestelow placed higher at Ches-Monts last
year (4th overall) than either Knapp or Smith. Eric’s track season
was also the best of the three. He did a 4:22 1600 and 9:38 for the full two
miles. He also ran 4:24 and 4:25 several times. So bear in mind that it really
is very close between these top three, but I’m picking Diestelow as number one
in Ches-Monts.
2.
Alex Knapp, SR, Henderson 15:38
Knapp has the fastest PR of anyone
in the Ches-Mont league right now, and placed the highest
at both Districts and States last year of any of the
returners in the Ches-Mont league. He definitely had a good track season,
running a 4:27 1600 and 9:32 3200. He will be a guy to look out for both in the
Ches-Mont league and in the State as he steps up to lead Henderson, an
unfamiliar role for him, but I think he will thrive and compete with some of
the very best this year. Mostly based on the track season times, I’m putting Knapp
at number two in Ches-Monts right now.
3.
Josh Smith, SR, Avon Grove 15:45
Last year Josh Smith had some great
performances and established himself as a top runner. Of those who return this
year, Josh Smith was second fastest at Ches-Monts, Districts, and States, so he
has proven he can run with anybody in Ches-Monts. He didn’t have as impressive
of a track season though, he did a 4:35 for one mile indoors and outdoors ran
all 800’s, where his best was a 1:58. This fall Josh Smith could take the
Ches-Mont individual title, no question he has the talent and ability, but of
the top three I have to put him third right now because Diestelow and Knapp
both fared better this past spring.
4.
Gordy Barchet, SR, Henderson 16:08
By current PR’s, Gordy Barchet is
comfortably 4th in the Ches-Mont, which makes him the obvious choice
here. His PR of 16:08 is from his sophomore year, since apparently he had a
fracture in his back last year. He has also worked down to a 4:30 mile in the
meantime, so I’m expecting good improvement from Gordy Barchet this year to get
down to around 15:45 or lower. That time won’t be able to get him in among the
top three, but it will give him 4th unless one of the guys ranked
below him has a big breakout year.
5.
Drew Alansky, SO, D-West 16:19
A 16:19 as a freshman is fast.
There’s no other way to put that. He then ran a 9:54 on the track, which isn’t
overwhelming for a guy with his 5k time, but it’s a good mark for a freshman.
As he moves into his sophomore year he will be pushed to be one of the top guys
for D-West, which should be some added motivation for him to run well. I think
his goal will be to run under 16:00 this year, and he should achieve it and
maybe even more.
6.
Ryan Barton, SO, D-West 16:24 4:44 9:57
A lot of what I wrote about Alansky
applies to Ryan Barton too. 16:24 is a great mark for him to build on in
sophomore year. He did a 9:57 on the track which is similar to Alansky’s 9:54,
but Barton also ran a 4:44, which is another good time for his freshman year.
He should be aiming for under 16:00 this year and might be able to even go a
little bit lower.
7.
Jack Carmody, JR, WC Rustin 16:28
Last year was Carmody’s first XC
season and I’m going to bet on Carmody looking for a big breakout year as a
junior. He has a 4:35 in the mile on the track complimented by a couple of
other upper-4:30s. Those times make sub-16 reasonable for him this year and I
think he will improve a lot and surprise. I think his goal is probably just to
get under 16 this season, but I think he could even run low 15:50s.
8.
Jake Ilgenfritz, JR, Avon Grove 16:41
There are several guys who ran in
the 16:30’s last year for XC, but none of their track seasons impressed me as
much as Jake Ilgenfritz’s. As a sophomore he qualified for Districts in the
3200, running a 9:48, and ran a 4:31 at Ches-Monts in the mile. Those are both
strong times and as he enters his junior year I think he will be looking to
make some statements. Sub-16 might seem a little ambitious to some people, but
I think that is very realistic for Ilgenfritz this season.
9.
Will Swart, SR, Henderson 16:32
Will Swart ran a 16:32 to win the
JV District race last season, and he’ll get even more opportunities to shine on
Henderson’s varsity squad this year. He had a solid track season of 4:34 and
9:50, but as I said in the Henderson team preview, I don’t see him breaking out
this year. I think he will be in the low 16’s, around 16:05.
10.
Henry Sappey, JR, D-West 16:44
Here’s my sleeper pick of the list.
Sappey has actually run under 16:44 twice, a 16:30 at Abington and a 16:14 at
Oakbourne (Henderson’s dual-meet home course). He also ran 16:54 at Ches-Monts
a week before on a slow course and only ran 10 seconds faster at Districts.
From his other races I think he was in shape for a 16:20 or faster at Districts
last year if he didn’t have a bad race. He also improved to a 4:31 mile this
past track season, so he has some foot speed to compliment as well. I think
Sappey may challenge for the top spot on D-West’s squad and could surprise by
running under 16:00, but I will predict him at between 16:05 and 16:10.
Other guys to watch:
Keelan O’Reilly, SR, D-East 16:30 4:38 10:22 2:00
Blake Ettien, JR, Coatesville 16:32 4:51 9:56
Charlie Barton, SR, D-West 16:42 4:37 10:08
Jason White, SR, D-West 16:50 4:39 10:03
Charlie Feeney, SR, Great Valley 17:20 4:35
Joe Ellis, SR?, Great Valley 16:33 5:12 (I’m still not sure he’s returning)
-Cummings, WC East
How I have it...
ReplyDelete1. Knapp
2. Diestalow
3. Smith
4. Alansky
5. Barchet
6. Sappey
7. Ilgenfritz
8. Swart
9. O'Reilly
10. Carmody
I'm seeing big things from Alansky this fall. He reminds me of Devlin just without the injuries. I think Sappey also has to realize how crucial he is to the team. They need another low stick to really be contenders and his experience is extremely crucial. O'Reilly had a decent showing at Chesmonts last year so I threw him on the list. I like experience over most so that's why I take Barton off the list. I feel like Carmody will be either a boom or bust. That's why I have him teetering on 10th. Also to note, Joe Ellis is in fact returning.
I like that list...
DeleteI would say:
1. Knapp
2. Diestelow
3. Smith
4. Barchet
5. Sappey
6. Carmody
7. Ilgenfritz
8. Swart
9. O'Reilly
10. Maybe Alansky, but he has Lyme disease, so who knows
I definitely agree that Knapp will take #1 over Diestelow. He had a faster 3200 time in outdoor and has a faster 5000 PR. On top of that he has huge shoes to fill with the departure of nearly Henderson's entire varsity squad, and I think he will really push himself because of that. Alansky is an XC powerhouse but he hurt his spine and will most likely be out for the entire season, so he's off the list. I think that people are really underestimating Sappey because of his poor performance at districts last year. I would put him at fifth.
DeleteSwart is being underrated here. He crushed Barton, Alansky and Carmody at Chesmonts and if he could have run the varsity race at Districts he'd have gone faster than the 16:34 time in a run away JV victory. And what about Blake Ittien from Coatesville? Chesmonts has big drop off from the last two years so I'm expecting two or three relatively unknowns in the top 10.
ReplyDeleteJoe Ellis will be a senior this year.
ReplyDeleteHere is my guess:
ReplyDeleteKnapp
Diestelow
Smith
Barchet
Sappey
R. Barton
Swart
Ilgenfritz
Vogt
Ettien
Joe Ellis is a Senior for Great Valley this year.
ReplyDeleteGreat job Chris!
ReplyDeleteI'm only good for top 5:
Diestelow
Smith
Knapp
Barton
Vogt (break out runner of the season!)
I mean no disrespect but who is Vogt and where is he from?
DeleteSpencer Vogt is that hyped up freshman at Henderson this year who ran like 4:40 in eighth grade. On any other team he'd have too much pressure for a frosh but WCH knows what they're doing. He should be good but doubt he'll be 5th though.
DeleteNope. Vogt is at Rustin and I assume somenone from Rustin posted that top 5 up there (no one else in their right mind would put Vogt in 5). Dude from Henderson is Smucker.
DeleteI know it is early in the season, and Henderson has likely not stepped up training yet, but Vogt finished only 10 seconds behind Knapp last week at Oakbourne. Also its interesting to note Swart ran in that race as well and was almost 30 seconds behind Vogt.
DeleteMy top ten looks like this.
1. Diestelow - He had the best track season out of the group, which seems to show promise that last years cross country season was simply a down year. His 9:38 two mile translates to a couple seconds slower than Knapp, but I see the extra miler speed benefiting him well on flat courses like Unionville and Lehigh.
2. Knapp - Could easily be number one, but I am going with the upset. He has the best XC credentials and will be leading the charge for Henderson this year; however, his track season showed little improvement from 2013.
3. Smith - Probably the most underrated of the group, Smith will be a strong third. He definitely has the potential to mix it up with Diestelow and Knapp, but I think the top two are just stronger distance runners and will end up breaking him mid race. I could be completely wrong about that, since he did run extremely well last fall, but I don't see him improving the way the others do. His track times were far from impressive, and it seems like he was mainly focusing on shorter distances. I'm interested to see how that correlates to a 5K.
4. Barchet - As Chris pointed out, he is fourth in PR. Some Dwest fans might argue that one of their guys deserves it based on last XC season, but Gordy came around in track running 4:30, proving that his XC season was a one time deal. I see him breaking out this year as Coach Kelly trains him to his full potential. With the seniors gone, younger guys like Gordy will get a lot more attention and I think that shows in his times. I have him at about 15:40-15:50.
5. Carmody - This name is likely to surprise some, but Carmody is 7th by PR, and last year was his first year running XC. He posted some decent track times, and I hear he is training with Henderson, so look for much improvement from him.
6. Sappey - Picking the order of the DWest guys has proved a bit of a challenge for me, but I think Sappey will reemerge as their #1 next year. Many forget that he led the team a majority of the season last year, and the two freshman simply ran faster at districts. Don't overlook the 16:14 he ran at Oakbourne.
7. Ilgenfritz - Lots are quick to jump on the DWest bandwagon, but Ilgenfritz had a much better track season than both Barton and Alansky. He has Smith to train with which is a huge benefit, and his XC times last year were comparable to both DWest freshman. I see him really breaking out this year.
8. Alansky - I wanted to put Vogt in this spot, but I think ultimately the coaching at DWest is so superior to Rustin that Alansky will prevail. He had a breakout year as a freshman and I can see him dropping another 25 seconds or so down to about 15:55.
9. Vogt - He has shown some promise early in the season, running 16:57 at Oakbourne last week. Thats extremely good for him this early in the season. Hopefully he is still early in his training and keeps improving through the year. The fact that he runs for Rustin worries me, because they are not known for competent coaching, but having Carmody to train with will benefit both of them. I see him at about 16:10 at districts, but that could easily be faster if things go well.
10. Smucker - Rounding out my top 10 is the Henderson freshman. He's relatively untested at longer distances, but with Kelly trying to rebuild, I trust him to develop Smucker into an elite freshman. This pick could really go either way but I'm thinking about 16:10 for him.
Wait...who said don't overlook Rustin earlier this summer? Oh yeah...that was me.
DeleteIt looks like people are starting to realize that Carmody is a legitimate #1 (I predict him in the 15:50's this year) and now people recognize Vogt is surprisingly good. So that's 2. Hontz ran 16:52 as a freshmen last year and they have Chris Coates brother and Jimmy Cook who came on strong last year in the 3,200 by breaking 10:00.
Once again...don't overlook Rustin as a sleeper team.
NDR
Every year someone gets big predictions because they ran with Henderson over the summer since their coaches supposedly aren’t good. Two years ago it was Kennett, last year Avon Grove this year it’s Rustin but they never pan out. Breslin and Kolimago from Shanahan have as much shot at top 10 as Carmody and Vogat from Rustin and DTW alone has 5 guys in front of them and Coatesville has top 10 guys too.
DeleteNo hype on Spencer Smucker. My exerience was that he is a shy quiet kid that is oblivious as to his potential.
DeleteThose predictions for 5k times are a bit ambitious. Chestmonts has a lot of guys in the mid 16 range this year but beside Diestelow, Knapp, Smith and Barchet nobody has done anything on track or XC to indicate they'll get to 16 flat level, other than get 3 months older and start training with Henderson.
DeleteChesmonts had a lot of guys in the mid 16 range last year. Assuming a 20-30 second improvement for those guys there are plenty of runners capable. Nevertheless I do agree, those four are the only ones have proven they are in that league so far.
DeleteI agree that Knapp, Diestelow and Smith are in a league of their own. After them there will be a drop off and the next 10 guys will all be bunched up. Sorry, I can't include Gordy Barchet with those 3 just because of his injury history. If he's healthy he's top 5 for sure.
DeleteThe problem with expecting a lot from a freshmen like Smucker is that most coaches keep freshmen and sophomore mileage lower or else risk serious injury. I doubt that Coach Kelly will let Smucker run the same mileage as Knapp.
NDR
Diestelow, Knapp and Smith should be sub 16. After that maybe 3 more from Chesmonts get there. Probably two from Dwest and maybe the miler from Shanahan or Avon Grove. Coatesville and Rustin have a nice core at probably 16:35 -16:45 but nobody elite. Henderson will develop somebody, they always do.
DeleteDiestelow, Smith, and Knapp will be in their own class this year no doubt. From having seen Spencer Smucker run both XC and track, he seems more comfortable on the track. Yes, he does lack that spark to really break out due to his obliviousness of his potential. However, I do think he will still be about #4 or 5 for Henderson, and running 16:45 at best.
DeleteIf by "more comfortable" you mean he can't get lost on the track then yes. Lol. At the chesmont xc middle school race last year, rumor has it he was so far out in front by the end of the race that he actually got lost and made a wrong turn behind a baseball backstop. By the time he got back on the course he finished 2nd. He won't have the problem of no one to follow at Henderson.
DeleteWell if Smucker really is more comfortable on the track; this track season should be interesting.
DeleteI'm sure someone else at the start of track season will say that he seems more comfortable on an XC course.
Thinking Henderson will run Chesmonts as a temp like last year to focus on making states. So Knapp or Barchet 4th -6th and Swartz not in top ten.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about the top 8 but the bottom 2 will be none of the above. New runners will take those places.
ReplyDeleteAgreed
Deletenice job. you should predict top 5 for the big invitation meets in 2014. good luck in college
ReplyDeleteAre there any other Freshman to watch out for besides Smucker?
ReplyDeleteHere's the run down.
DeleteFrom DWest you got Evan Kaiser and Nate Mucha (Ryan Mucha's little brother). They went 4:59 and 5:01 respectively so they only add to the rediculous depth that DWest has to offer. They're not just good now, they're a team of the future.
DaQuan Granberry was 2nd to Smucker and ran 4:53. I believe that feeds into Coatesville which only adds to the depth they have.
Brett Zatlin (Garrett Zatlin's little brother) had a solid double going 4:54 and 2:14 so GV could use him in a role where they need some power up front.
DEast gets a decent trio in Cole Kacmar (5:02/2:15), Aaron Stoyack (5:18), and Cameron Cunningham (2:21). Don't know how big their impact will be but it's something.
I'll throw on Shae Cunmingham. 5:00 and 2:21 so he could eventually develop into AG's program.
Finally, you've got Smucker's partner in crime Steve Heck that went 5:00. A legendary coach in Kelly will turn this kid from "good runner" to "stud".
Basically just check the results here...
http://pa.milesplit.com/meets/171820/results/305575
Not to forget the young man from Unionville who won Chester County leagues in XC. His name escapes me as he must only do xc but he'll develop into something solid.
Side note- apparently a great duo out of CYO will be going to Pennsbury so they could make some noise as well.
Does anyone have the results from the chesmont middle school championship in xc for last year?
DeleteNo duo out of cyo is going to make a great difference. The best class to ever come out of cyo was the trio of james, webb, and mcdevitt with them going 4:45, 4:37, and 4:31. James did well his freshman but eventually got injured becuase of high mileage and mcdevitt and webb kind of dissapered that year. They're all great runners now but they didn't make a huge impact their freshman year so i doubt those other kids will.
DeleteGood 8th grade times but a guarantee of nothing. Some kids simply grow before others and many middle school stars never get much better. And surely the WCH influence reaches their middle school program so their guys have real workouts where as most 8th graders simply jog for 40 minutes a day.
DeleteTrue some guys mature at an early age. But you are incorrect to believe that WCH is influencing Peirce MS workouts. Peirce kids tended to run about 3 miles a day with no real interval training.
Delete