Hey everybody,
I don't know what Forrest is up to, but hopefully he gets back to blogging soon.
Also apologies, I haven't been able to keep up with the blog or PA running much in the last few months, things have been busy. But it's a new season, and I'm gonna try to get back at writing for the blog.
This week is a busy one for me, and to be honest I haven't looked at many results from indoor, so this weekend I'll spend some time doing some research and catching up and hopefully have a full post out by early next week.
In the mean time, hit up the comments section and let me know what you think about Indoor States this past weekend and outdoor coming up. For starters:
- Sam Ritz lit up the mile with a blazing 4:09, and also took a bronze in the 800 with a quick 1:51. What does he have in store for the outdoor season?
-Who's your early pick to win the outdoor 800? Indoor champion John Lewis? Elias Graca who was runner up by less than half a second? Sam Ritz? Or does another guy step in and take the title?
-Cross country powerhouses Jake Brophy, Paul Power and Colin Abert struggled a little bit at Penn State. Are they primed to return to dominating races again?
-The 3000m saw three guys go under 8:40, which converts to sub-9:15. What's the fastest time someone hits in the 32 this outdoor? Will anyone break 9:00?
-Cummings
Sam Ritz doesn't run outdoor with PIAA. I also wouldn't say that Brophy or Power struggled at all. Brophy ran a huge mile PR, roughly converting to 4:15.5 in the 1600 and Power also ran an 8 second PR if I remember his PR correctly, converting to around 9:22 for the 3200.
ReplyDeleteThe blog is alive! Sorta!
ReplyDeleteMy predictions:
ReplyDeleteRitz goes 4:05 in the 1600, Brehm 4:08.
Ritz, Graca and Lewis all go sub 1:50.
James goes 8:59 but Brophy goes 8:58.
Forrest returns the abyss to post again.
Brophy won't place top 3 in the 32 if he runs it. He's very good on the grass and peaked very well for XC states, but he's not as developed of a track runner as some other guys yet.
Deletei hope that James or Webb get a much deserved state title.
ReplyDeleteJames just has to win a state title by the end of his incredible career, right??? He certainly deserves it.
DeleteHe got his state gold in the DMR with a real strong performance. The 3200 outdoors is his best shot this year. Although he could certainly give Brehm a run in the 1600 if he choose that event.
DeleteIf James wants a state title he has to run the 3200. I think he's the most capable two-miler in the state, and I don't see anyone beating him. He's simply not as strong of a middle distance runner as Brehm. There's no way he'd win the 16.
DeleteCongrats on 400,000 views
ReplyDeleteHere are my rough predictions as of now. These aren't necessarily predictions for the actual state meet, but who I believe will be the three fastest AAA athletes in PA in the 8, 16, and 32 at the time of the state meet.
ReplyDelete800m:
1. John Lewis: 1:49 low
2. Elias Graca: 1:49 high
3. Zach Brehm: 1:51 high
Although Graca has been continually improving a lot in the past year and was only .3 behind Lewis at Indoor States, I just don't think he'll be able to compete with Lewis's sheer 400 speed. Lewis has run 47.7 while Graca has only run 50.6. I think Graca is probably capable of going 49 high right now, but even with his higher efficiency I don't think that will be enough. Ultimately Lewis can take the race out faster than anyone else, and with the whole outdoor season to gain aerobic efficiency he'll be able to hold onto that fast pace better than ever before. I think they'll both definitely go sub 1:50 though, and Graca definitely won't be far behind Lewis. As for third, I think Zach Brehm and Alek Sauer will both be able to run 1:51 high, but I think Brehm will be able to out-kick almost anyone.
1600m:
1. Zach Brehm: 4:06
2. Jaxson Hoey: 4:07
3. Kevin James: 4:09
I think these guys are indisputably the top 3 in triple A. Brehm's been PA #1 in the 16 for the past two years, and I think Hoey and James are the only ones fast enough to really compete with him. He's historically been very good at peaking for the state meet, and I don't think anyone will be able to outkick him.
Jaxson Hoey posted the equivalent of a 4:11.1 in the 1500 at the Distance Festival, and I think he'll certainly be able to go a few seconds faster this year. He's definitely faster in the 4 and 8 than James, and I don't really see James beating him in a middle distance event. As for James, I think he's a step ahead of everyone besides Brehm and Hoey, and I think he'll definitely shave a couple seconds off of the 4:11 equivalent he run at indoor states.
3200m
The 3200 is just too close to call right now in my opinion. I think the top 3 in AAA will be Kevin James, Jaxson Hoey, and Sam Webb, and I think they'll all be in 8:56-57 shape for the state meet. Kevin James has looked really strong this whole year and I'm inclined to say that he'll win, but Hoey and Webb ran 9:05 and 9:08 last year, so they're definitely not very far behind him. Also, based on my calculations, I don't see Webb or Hoey not going sub-9, and I don't see James going sub 8:55, so it will definitely be close.
Plot twist: Forrest gave up blogging for lent and will return after Easter
ReplyDelete