Hey guys, so Spain is crazy fun and really busy, but I've got some free time tomorrow to do more on these races (it's 4:30 AM here).. But just some quick results for the time being
5000m
Brendan Shearn steps up big and is the only PA guy to run sub 15 in a 14:55 effort. I thought Russell would be a big or bust and turned to be a bust, he probably wasn't on pace for a fast time after the first mile or so and Coach K told him to turn it off. He ran 15:50. Unless he is injured, I expect a really fast split from him in the mile. Really solid races out of Kennedy and Todaro in the slow heat, running 15:03.32 and 15:03.47 respectively for 22nd and 23rd, while Galassi was 15:12. This is a real nice race out of Kennedy and just behind where Shearn was at last year as a Jr.
Mile EE
It seemed as though some of the Henderson guys were running out of steam at the end of the year such as Stratman and Collins, much like O'Hara's guys, and it showed in these races.
Moy- 4:23.84
Stratman - 4:25.45
Collins - 4:35.92
I hope they can bounce back for the 4x1 Mile, because they really have the potential to win the national title. I'll be interested to see if Barchet races with that squad.
Boys Junior Mile
Eric Kennedy placed 4th in 4:51.89. Slightly upset that he was in this race, because I had information that I was planning on revealing in a later post. He ran 4:38 for 1600 this spring, so he's a real stud. That's faster than Webb and James were running (about 4:44), just for some perspective.
That's all for now Folks
--ForrestCRN
Webb was like around 4:34 his eighth grade year. He was the bet grade school runner I had ever seen.
ReplyDeleteBrent Kennedy went something like 4:36 or 4:37 in middle school, so...can't wait for his little brother to wreck me next year as well.
ReplyDeleteCourtney Smith ran 16:45 for 4th place. The first and maybe only PA distance runner to earn All-American status. She comes back in the 4xMile that made AA status indoors. With their slowest girl at a 5:08 1600, I'm saying Unionville takes it. They were 3rd indoors, but they didn't have Olivia Young. With her and the indoor champs not returning to the event, I believe Unionville can win. With the exception of last year's Tatnall, the time that usually wins is 20:20+. I'd say with the shape they should be in (and Smith IS in) they run about 20:10 with Smith anchoring in 4:55 (probably faster if needed, but I believe they'll have the lead and she'll just maintain it. Young goes 5:00, Fisher runs 5:05, and Birkenmaier goes 5:10.
ReplyDeleteGermantown also has a solid 4xmile that went AA indoors as well. With all the Sarah Walker craze, people may forget about Lukens-Day, their #1 1600 runner as of now. She's split 4:57 before and with her tune up race at the distance festival, she's in pretty good shape. Of course, Walker is ready to unleash the beast and run something amazing. She seems more of a speed runner though (ran her first 400 of the 800 in 59). Their third piece of the puzzle, Andersson looks good as well by her performance at the distance festival, she actually ran within a second of her PR, that's always a good sign when training for Nationals. That just leaves the final piece. Both runners I saw didn't look too good so I'm not sure what they will do, but I think they are more milers than 800 runners. Either way, I can see them running 20:40 and getting 4th. Splits about 4:53 for Walker, 4:59 for Lukens-Day, 5:18 for Andersson, and 5:30 for their 4th.
Germantown comes back 9 hours later to run the DMR. They ran 11:55 at the penn relays to place second and Walker has come a long way since then. I'd assume they run 11:48 to place 3rd. I'd assume the order is how it was a penn relays, so I'd say Walker goes 3:28, Milbourne goes 58, Andersson 2:23, Lukens-Day 4:59 (this time it's 1600, not a mile).
Freshman Jerrica Bauer ran an 11:03 for a full two miles, that's a solid time for a freshman. That's a sub 11 for 3200. She'll be solid come XC season.
I guess I should say something about Boys? Fine.
Henderson should do well. Barchet appears to not have done so hot in the steeple chase which adds to a string or races, but he's never raced that before so I'll look past it. The last few races though are kind of hard. Moy ran a 4:23 which is solid, not as fast as I thought he'd go, but for a 4xmile it'll definitely do. Same with Stratman, 4:25 can get the job done in the 4xmile. Collins didn't run so well so I assume Barchet is still the 4th guy. Hopefully he can pull one more race out. I agree with Forrest for Russell. He must have been behind halfway through and the coach pulled the plug on it. Hopefully that'll keep his legs a little fresher for the mile today. I don't think he trained for the 5k anyway so it's no biggie. I'm guessing 17:20 wins it, so I'd place Henderson 5th running 17:27. Barchet splits 4:28, Stratman splits 4:24, Moy splits 4:22, Russell splits 4:13.
The Ritz bros in the mile. I'd say the both go sub 4:10, but Ben takes it this time running 4:08 while Sam runs 4:09. Ben getting 4th and Sam getting 7th.
-RTJ
Henderson got 7th. Stratman-4:21,Barchet-4:26,Russell-4:19, Moy 4:17
ReplyDeleteCalled Henderson being 7th, BOOM. You can call me RJJL from now on. Just kidding, my splits were so off for about everyone, except Germantowns 3rd and 4th leg on the 4xmile.
ReplyDeleteCongrats on Unionville for placing 2nd! That's impressive. Especially since only one graduates and they have gretchen mills to replace her (she actually ran faster than Birkenmaier, i just think because she was a senior she got the nationals spot).
Jay Stone ran a 52.95 in the 400 hurdles, that event separates the men from the boys. Hardest event in my opinion. Maybe in a year he can go 50 point or 51 point. He placed 6th and grabbed the last AA spot.
Wellington Zaza. I've known him since 8th grade? Either way, that kid works his butt off and deserves everything he's achieved. Back to back 110HH national chamionships, congrats Wellz! Best of luck in Arizona.
-RTJ
Webb ran 4:31 for 1600 as an 8th grader. Kevin James came in third in that race, I don't remember the time, probably high 30s, low 40s
ReplyDeleteGermantown runs 12:01 and places 5th in the DMR. Congrats to them! Only distance runners to become All-Americans were on the girls side.
ReplyDeleteWhere are the videos from States 2013? I can't seem to find them and I'd like to watch them.
-RTJ
XC PREDICTIONS!!!!
ReplyDeleteDO IT.
DeletePLEASE
DeleteIt would be awesome if the Top 50(if the tradition is continuing on) could be in depth too! Going in to each runner!
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget top 10 teams! The team race behind Henderson should be interesting to watch. LaSalle loses their big guys, Cumberland valley loses kunzweiler and coburn. It'll be interesting to see if the great coaching of Ohara and CRN can bring back strong enough teams to be competitive after losing big senior names. Lot of spots open up for new teams to step in!
DeleteTop 10 individuals based on XC and track:
Delete1 Ethan Martin
2 Tony Russell
3 Kevin James
4 Brent Kennedy
5 Ross Wilson
6 Reiny Barchet
7 Sam Ritz
8 Colin Martin
9 Sam Webb
10 Zach Brehm
Just Missing in no particular order: Abert, Belfatto, C. Kazanjian, Brophy, Collins
Top 5 Teams:
1. Henderson (duh, but Ohara seemed like favorites the past 2 years and lost so they better distance themselves from the rest of the state because there is no room for comfort)
2. Ohara (I think they have enough prices to win states any other year, they have a chance if Henderson gets unlucky with injuries or has an off day)
3. North Allegheny (I didn't trust them last year but they should be solid, what scares me is they don't have that front runner like WCH or OH)
4. Lower Dauphin (two great runners and they only lose one from last year)
5. Great Valley (flew under the radar all of last year, they only lose Wolffe and their 5 from last year)
Also noteworthy in no order: CRN (I'm sure), Mt Lebo (always makes states), West Chester East (they got a solid group of 3, I just gotta see proof on the course first), Tunkhannock (a real sleeper but they should be good and will probably fly under the radar)
Names to include; Colin Albert, Chris Kazanjian
DeleteTeams to include; Fox Chapel, Penncrest
Top 25 (Only PIAA):
Delete1. Russell: (WCH) He just seems to come out during XC
2. E. Martin (FC)
3. Kennedy (KA)
4. Wilson (CRN)
5. James (COH)
6. C. Martin (FC)
7. Barchet (WCH)
8. Groh (LD)
9. Webb (PB)
10. Collins (WCH)
11. Brehm (CAR)
12. Brophy (CBE)
13. C Kazanjian (PC)
14. Deluca (DAL)
15. Abert (EAS)
16. Parsons (Maplewood) He ran well at states last year
17. Gebhart (NO)
18. Willig (GV)
19. Molino (SW)
20. Nissley (LD)
21. Haugh (WCH)
22. Moy (WCH)
23. Diestelow (WCE)
24. Cummings (WCE)
25. Seel (NA)
To be honest, I based most of this off XC states results. People left off: Do not feel offended, I very well could've missed you. Go prove yourselves!
Top 10:
1. West Chester Henderson: Absolutely ridiculous the amount of talent that returns for this team.
2. Fox Chapel: The only team that can match WCH up front 1-2. Let's see how 3-5 can step up.
3. North Alleghany: It doesn't matter who is running for them, they will be top 5..
4. Lower Dauphin: A healthy Groh-Nissley duo is dangerous compared to the rest of the field. Lots of seniors on this team looking for a great finish.
5. Cardinal O'Hara: I know this seems really low, but some big senior losses will really hurt this team.
6. West Chester East: Big top 3 carries this team.
7. Great Valley: Always shows promise
8. State College: Upset in D6 last year. Will be looking for revenge.
9. Pottsgrove: 1st AA team on the list, because they bring back 4 from last year's team at States and have incredibly strong pack running.
10. Tunkhannock: top 4 return along with their 6.
Again I apologize for any misses.
To the person who wrote below me: Albert should have been in mentions. I forgot about him. Kazanjian is already in my mentions. Fox Chapel and Penncrest Would finish out my top 10 I just didn't want to go that far.
DeleteIn terms of team wise I think there is again a big drop off after the top 5 teams. Henderson will be nationally elite. Ohara has enough experienced pieces: James, Belfatto, Smart, Donnelly (ran some varsity), Pastore (Split varsity with Donnelly) to be competitive. NA was young last year an should gain a lot from last year. Lower Dauphin has the two big guns and a good enough supporting cast. And Great Valley returns Willig, Doran, Zatlin, and the 6,7 guys from last year.
The only problem I have in the rankings above is Fox Chapel after Colin Martin (16:22 at states) is Graca and Bliss at 18:01. No one else has state experience. That is to big of a gap to ask a couple of guys to make up in one year in my opinion.
Let's compare them to the others:
WCH has their 6 guy at 16:51
OH has their 3 at 17:11(Smart and Pastore didn't run at states or Foundation)
NA has their 5 at 17:34 and 6 at 18:08
LD has their 4 at 17:40 and 5 at 18:04
Great Valley has their 4 at 17:53
So Fox Chapel may have the best 1-2 punch but the past two years should be proof enough that you need to be deep to win or even get top 5 at states.
I agree that Fox Chapel needs to have some better depth, but having those two brothers should force each and every one of their teammates to work harder and step up. I'd rather pick FC over the teams below, because the 1-2 could easily score 10 points combined, which is a big deal when others are scoring 45. No other team has that front depth. Admittedly I have not done the research on their 3-7, but the Martin Brothers seemed good enough to earn 2nd or 3rd.
DeleteI agree that the Martin brothers are a highly impressive duo leading Fox Chapel. But their next two runners were at 17:55 and 17:57 last year, respectively.
DeleteNow scoring 10 points through two runners is impressive and very helpful compared against 45 through two runners, but their next three guys need to step it up. In last year's results the Martin brothers scored 10 points, and their next three scored 284. Compare to Great Valley, who's top two scored a much higher 54, and next three scored 146 to win the head-to-head by 94.
My point is that no matter how good the Martin brothers are this year, they only have seven more points that they can take off the board to improve last year's 12th place team finish. The improvement needs to come from 3-5 and it needs to be big if this team is going to challenge even for a top 5 finish in my opinion.
-Cummings, WC East
There are many historic examples of both male & female teams in PA cross who could boast top-notch #1 & #2 runners. But the drop-off beyond the second guy wasn't enough to get them to the podium.
DeleteHeck, even Henderson had Russell & Barchet come in 1&2 at Regionals in 2012, and yet, they had to sweat out a few days and hope they were offered an at-large trip to Nat's in Oregon.
I believe Pastore (COH) has graduated.
DeleteI think they mean Drew Pastore. Little brother
DeleteHis brother Drew is a junior who ran on and off of varsity last year and ran at NXN
DeleteHenderson has their 6 at 16:51? Are you drunk? Kevin moy, who was third on JV last year ran 16:30s. At districts they didnt race three varsity guys. Top 10 all 16:30 or faster
DeleteHaha I was talking about times at states or Hershey because everyone runs there and it is easy to compare. Please don't start the lecture on how good Henderson is. We all know they have 10-12 guys that could be varsity.
DeleteSo who do you think those top 7 will be? it is tough because Haugh disappeared all track and Moy had an amazing track despite being 10th man last year for xc?
DeleteRussell, Barchet, Collins, Stratman definitely. Haugh and Knapp didn't have as good of track seasons as the rest but if they are healthy they should make it. I think Gordy Barchet will step up for the 7 spot as he did at NXN. Moy had a great track season but I just don't see him as an XC runner. He will probably run varsity a lot though because the varsity line up will most likely change but I think ultimately Gordy ends up with the 7th slot.
DeleteAgree with your top 4 and Knapp. Wouldn't count him out, but I kind of think Haugh isn't running? If he's back and healthy, that's another story.
DeleteG. Barchet? I'd put Moy and Waltz ahead of him. And knowing Henderson, I'm sure there will be a few surprises this season.
Flashback to 2010... Hebda, Silenieks, Kush swept the WPIAL/D7 championship 1-2-3 beating the likes of Gil, Steiner, B. Bishop, Moran, Degregorio, Kuchta, etc. A little disappointing state meet for them but still incredible 3-12-13. I'm almost sure North Hills didn't crack the top 10 in that WPIAL championship and definitely far from even qualifying for states as a team (they were ranked 6th in the state at the beginning of the season) . Moral of the story: 2 or even 3 superstars still don't make a state contender. Also, Fox Chapel loses their 3, 4 and 5 more or less (4 and 5 varied a little with their 6 guy but 3, 4 and 5 were the most experienced). Depth is king
DeleteEver notice on meet results that the team results are usually about the same as the results of the number five runners?
DeleteNote about WCE: true they will have very strong front 3, but they will also return their #5 who got injured very early last XC season
DeleteTop 50 (taken mostly from XC states results)
ReplyDelete1. Russell, WCH
2. Kennedy, Kiski
3. E. Martin, Fox C
4. Wilson, CRN
5. Abert, Eaton
6. Webb, Pennsbury
7. C. Martin, Fox C
8. R. Barchet, WCH
9. C. Kazanjian, Penncrest
10. James, COH
11. Parsons, Maplewood
12. Gebhart, New Oxford
13. Willig, GV
14. Brophy, CBE
15. Molino, S Willamport
16. Nissley, LD
17. Brehm, Carlisle
18. Haugh, WCH
19. Collins, WCH
20. Cummings, WCE
21. Delucca, Dallas
22. Diestelow, WCE
23. Belfatto, COH
24. Louco, NA
25. Seel, NA
26. Wilt, Biglesville
27. M. Kazanjian, Penncrest
28. Stratman, WCH
29. Gonande, Salisbury
30. Knapp, WCH
31. Reilly, Dallastown
32. Benka, Grove City
33. Dinger, Ponxsutawney
34. Wagner, Jenkintown
35. Francis, Bensalem
36. Hockenbury, Lake-Leham
37. Hopple, St. Joe Catholic
38. McGoey, NA
39. Lauer, Red Land
40. Caldwell, Downingtown East
41. Shim, Wyomissing
42. Cather, State College
43. Connors, Wilson
44. Doran, GV
45. Kachman, Bedford
46. Carter Smith, Eden
47. Groh, LD
48. Zatlin, GV
49. Devonshire, NE Bradford
50. Dages, WCE
Of course there are a dozen more runners you can put at the end of this list.
It's a little unfair to base the list solely off of XC states. The entire xc season and some track meets should be considered for the list.Not that this isn't a decent list but just something the maker of the real list should consider
ReplyDeleteXC season and track season should be taken into consideration. I know track doesn't translate to XC, but when you can run a 4:09 mile... odds are you can run a killer 5k. The confidence is also a huge factor. Track is also a good judge of a team's 3-5 and if someone has stepped up.
ReplyDelete-RTJ