XC Predictions: Top 50 and MORE

After over 12 hours of research, 7 pages of writing, and 4,500 words here is the long awaited XC Top 50 Predictions!!! I will be putting up the top 10 teams with explanation's out tomorrow or Thursday. I've got some idea's but not everything is locked in yet.

Let me know what you think and tell me how wrong I really am :) And please keep commenting and posting your own top 25's or 50's!

1. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – There have only been two repeat AAA champions in the past two decades and both were exceptional runners: Danny Coval and Craig Miller. I think Russell has a 33.3% chance of joining this small group. He’s the strongest of any guy in the field, fantastic coaching, and great work ethic. The state course makes it difficult for guys to repeat and so many things can happen on any given day, but I believe he’s the top XC runner in the state of Pennsylvania. He wasn’t as mind blowing on the track as he is in XC, but 4:12 split for a mile and 9:08 with a good bit of leading in the 3200 is no joke. He’s the Hershey course record holder and defending NXNE Regional champ, it’s tough to bet against this guy.
2. Ross Wilson, Sr Council Rock North (1AAA) – I’m sure I’ll get ragged on for this pick, but Ross Wilson is the most motivated guy in the state right now. Russell, Brehm, Martin all have state titles, and he’s hungry to join that group. I think he’ll end up doing it in the 3200 outdoors, but just falling short in cross. He’s grown his speed running 4:17 for 1600 and has one of the top times in the 3200. Etrain continually said he couldn’t keep running hard, but the man ran 8:29, 9:09, 4:17/9:21 double, 9:14 district win, and 9:12 at the state meet. He’s a tank and comes from a program of great coaching and history. I think he goes to nationals as well placing 5^th at Footlocker.

 3. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (3AAA)—After running the top Mile time in PA as only a sophomore and winning the 800 at states, Brehm looks to continue the trend and be the 3^rd junior in a row to win the AAA XC state title. His 9:18 is a solid mark, but he’s the 5^th returning So, and has to prove himself on the hills. The kid is crazy talented, but I don’t see him taking down the title. I’m sure I’ll regret this decision later on. I think he takes 3^rd at states, but ends up going to nationals in a 8^th place finish at regionals, if he pans out as an XC runner. If not, he could fall as ‘low’ as 15^th at the state meet.

4.  Kevin James, Jr Cardinal O’Hara (12AAA) – Hunger + Redemption = A great combination for high success. Kevin James no longer has hopes at a team title as he did the past two years, but instead will be pushing to win a title of his own individually. Without guys like Savage and Pitone in front of him will and team aspirations, will he have the drive to succeed as he has this past season? I believe he does. James know how to get it done and became the spot light this past season unlike many underclassman who are in the shadows of their senior counterparts. He may have a better shot than Brehm to take the title as a Jr.

 5. Ethan Martin, Sr Fox Chapel (7AAA) – 3200m State Champ and was a double gold winner at WPAIL’s for the 1600 and 3200 over his twin brother and Kennedy. I want to say it’s Colin’s time to shine, but Ethan seems to be a few steps ahead both with speed and strength as he threw down a 28 closing 200 at states. He placed 5^th last year and is the 3^rd returner. Having his brother to train with everyday won’t allow him to slack at all after his recent success, as Colin will be gunning for him. This will keep him sharp and ready for XC, but don’t be too surprised if his brother steps it up.

6.  Brent Kennedy, Sr Kiski Area (7AAA) – I don’t know why, but I have no clue what to do with Kennedy. He’s a FL finalist, 15:03 5k on the track, 4:17 mile, and 9:13 3200. He was second to Russell last year and is a very strong runner. I’ve always been fairly up on Kennedy, but for some reason I’ve got my doubts on where to place him and I’ve got an odd feeling he’ll be like Jaskowak and underachieve in XC compared to the year before. He’s as hungry as Wilson I’m sure. I’m truly hoping he proves me wrong, because if a senior is going to take the title from Russell I think he’s got the best shot of doing so.

7. Reiny Barchet, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – The only XC All-American from PA is ranked 7^th?!?! Am I crazy? Well…  I might be. With such an amazing squad, that could be as good as the Coatesville team from ’06 he’ll have tons of motivation for this season. His list of credentials is as long as his teammate Tony Russell, and if they 1-2 at the state meet I wouldn’t be shocked. He started to burn at the end of outdoor; probably due to the extended seasons, but with some time off he’ll be back for his primary sport: XC. He’s got a big dog to chase, so he doesn’t have the spot light and this could open up an opportunity for him to take the individual state title away from his teammate, mush like Quinn did to Hibbs two years ago.

8. Sam Webb, Jr Pennsbury (1AAA) – How many times can a junior run sub 4:20 for 1600 and 9:14 for 3200, be a multi-state medalist as a sophomore and somehow be 3^rd in his class? Yeah, these guys are ridiculous, but so his Sam Webb. His training partner and mentor, Connor Harriman, is now gone which does bother me a bit, but Webb has his eyes on state gold and he’s got competition on all levels whether its dual meets with Wilson or trying to become the top Jr in PA. He’ll be ready to roll and he’s got a solid group behind him looking for a top 5 XC finish after missing out on making it to states last year.

9.  Jake Brophy, So Central Bucks East (1AAA)—Yes, I know, Jake Brophy, a Sophomore is in my top 10 list. It hasn’t happened since Vince McNally in ’05. Abert was 12^th this past year as the top So, but Brophy was just 5 seconds off medaling last season and is a gutsy runner. The first 3200 he ran at Helman was a 9:43, he went out in 5:00 with Brian Arita and then dropped a 4:43. He then improved that time with a 9:32 finish at districts. Sam Webb ran that and finished 14^th at XC the next season, but Brophy has a bigger XC background. With the solid coaching of Paul Wilson (yes father of Ross Wilson), Brophy will look to begin to make his dents in PA history.

10. Dominic Deluca, Sr Dallas (2AA)—Deluca placed second last year at Foundations to Harriman’s big kick, but was nicked by an injury and placed 11^th at AA states last XC season. He is the top returner in AA, and oh… he silently ran 9:13 for 3200 at the Henderson Distance festival this spring. He will be looking to take on the mantle of the great AA runners from last season, and I think he will step up to do so. Don’t look for something amazing at states, but he’ll be in the mix with these top guys throughout the season at XC meets all over.

11. Colin Martin, Sr Fox Chapel (7AAA) – Being the twin of a state champion is always tough, but he’s almost at his brother’s level. He’ll be looking to prove himself after a breakout spring season. FC has two up and coming juniors and with one more piece they’ll be a force. He’ll be looking to finish top 5 with his brother at the state meet.

12. Colin Abert, Jr Easton (11AAA) – Well how about that, this was his place in last year’s XC state meet as he finished as the top sophomore, and now I’ve got him ranked 4^th in his class. This may be my biggest mistake on this list. Abert went out really hard and Etrain and I both thought he would die, but he ran strong the whole race. He’s really gutsy and added a 4:20 1600 to his credentials this past spring season. He didn’t make much noise in the 3k or 3200 (9:40), but I’d have to imagine he’ll find his way into the top 10 at AAA states.

13. Sam Ritz, Jr Germantown Academy (Independent League) – Sam as under his old brother Ben’s shadow all year until his breakout race at the distance festival where he ran 4:11 for a full mile. He’s also got a 9:22 3200 under his belt. He’ll be in the spot light now, which does scare me a bit, but I think his talent will propel him to be an XC stud. It’ll be tough to show how good he truly is, but I hope he places well at regionals. I doubt he’ll have what it takes to get to nationals though.

14. Matt McGoey, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – NA will be gunning for WCH this season and McGoey will be leading the charge. He had a poor race last year at states, but stepped up this spring season with a 9:23 3200. I think he’ll be the one to step up and lead this really tight pack.

15. Aaron Gebhart, Jr New Oxford (3AAA) – It’s easy to be over looked when you’re in a class of 3 Sophomore XC medalist’s and a 4:09 So Miler, but Gebhart has silently improved and placed well in both XC and in spring track. He was 28^th at states in XC (16:33) and ran 9:32 in the 3200. He will need a big jump to keep up with his fellow classmates, but he should still be a force in District 3 and a state medalist in AAA.

16. Jeremy Parsons, Sr Maplewood (10A) - Top returning A runner after placing 5^th last season. A was really quite strong last year, but this division lost a lot of great guys, we’ll see if he can step up to prove that A is worthy of recognition once again. In the spring he didn’t run very much, but does have a 9:45 3200 to his name, and it seems he will be a factor again in the A scene. (16:28 @ states). His twin brother Jake had an off-day at states and could very well be a top finisher. Watch out for this duo.

17. Griffin Molino, Jr South Williamsport (4A) – Molino was 8^th in A last season and was overshadowed in District 4 by Williams and Jewett. Now that they have left he’ll be taking the spotlight. He really broke out this spring running 9:26 for 3200 and 4:24 for 1600. I think he’s got a great shot at being the second A state champion in state history.  (16:36 @ states).

18. Cole Nissley, Sr Lower Dauphin (3AAA) – On an LD team of some up and down runners, Cole Nissley has proved to be extremely consistent. He finished 6^th at districts and came back to place 33^rd at the state meet. It’s always tough to complete that back-to-back. He and Groh will be a force in district 3 and they hope to lead LD to a top 5 finish at the state meet.

19. Christian Kardish, Sr Holy Ghost Prep (1AA) – Kardish was out most of last XC season due to an onset on Mono. He recovered quite nicely and in spring going 4:20 for 1600. He was a 4:18 guy as a sophomore and ran well in XC before the mono and I think he’ll be out to prove himself as a senior. HGP has had some very successful runners recently and I think he competes for a AA title.

20. Eric Stratman, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) –Stratman will very likely be there #3 as he has 4:19 1600 and 9:28 3200 to his name. He was there #3 at Ches-Mont’s but 6^th at states, his high positioning gave them the win. But with this teams depth even a guy like him could be fighting to stay on the varsity team.

21. Matt Willig, Sr Great Valley (1AAA) – Hmmm, what to say about Matt Willig… He seems to always step it up at the best times. Right when I start thinking that he’ll be a bust, he does something like place 29^th at the state meet.

22. Jim Belfatto, Sr Cardinal O’Hara (12 AAA) – Belfatto was fairly unheard of until his amazing 9:22 on the track in XC last season before regionals. He went on to run some solid 1600’s and 8’s indoors and outdoors. It seemed that he sacrificed a lot to try and help the O’Hara relays that sadly never panned out. With his focus this season on longer distances, much like Logue, we could very well see him explode. He’s a strength runner which is great for XC and he’ll be looking to help O’Hara back to the state meet.

23. Ben Szuhaj, Jr Penn Charter (Independent League) – Ben ran very well at XC regionals for a sophomore and his 9:00 3k in December really impressed me, but he fell off the map until the Henderson distance festival where he ran 8:51 for 3k. He could be coming into his own and if so he’ll be a real force next season and may be battling with Sam Ritz.

24. Aiden Demko, Jr Hershy (3AAA) – It’s tough coming out of District 3 and running well at the state meet. Todaro was able to do it, but Demko may have lost a lot of deserved credit after placing 12^th at districts and then 85^th at the state meet. He beat Gebhart, but didn’t have a great track season, only running 9:43 for 3200. He’s going to have to step it up to be considered as a top jr, but still has great potential with a good running partner in Will Sponaugle.

25. Mike Meehan, Sr North Allegheny (7AAA) – He was the top guy for NA before getting injured before WPIAL’s last XC season. He didn’t run in winter or spring to my knowledge and it could have been a stress fracture. I think he comes back and helps bring the NA squad close to Henderson at states. If he doesn’t end up coming back they’ll have a tough time doing it.

26. Patrick Reilly, Sr Dallastown (3AAA)- He placed second at Districts last year, but had a bad race at the state meet. He only ran 9:35 for 3200 this spring, but he’s always performed better during XC.

27. Jeff Groh, Lower Dauphin (3AAA) – Groh was the district 3 XC champ two years ago as just a sophomore, but he had major issues in XC last season. He came back well on the track running 4:16 and 9:23. He could very well be in shape to place top 10 at the state meet, especially with a great partner in Nissley. I’m still a bit hesitant to put him any higher, but he could easily move up on this list.

28. Sam Haugh, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA)—Here begins the WCH pack. Honestly, I hate having to pick one guy over the other for this team as anyone could step up for them to take a spot 3-7. Haugh got injured before regionals, but was there #4 man at states and Ches-Mont’s for XC. It seems to be his sport and he’ll be looking to gain that back this season.

29. Cordon Louco, Sr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Louco made some major improvements as a junior and he’ll be the big senior leader on this NA squad. He ran 9:29 for 3200 and was very consistent throughout XC and track this past year.

30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – And now it seems we round out Henderson’s top 5. Collins looked to be a great 1200 with fantastic strength indoors and the start of outdoors until he faded while Moy and Stratman came on the scene. I think he comes up big during XC for them and runs some strong times.

31. Aaron Benka, Jr Grove City (10AA)- Benka is the next man in line to be a great Grove City runner after recent success stories like Jaskowak and Kildoo. This coaching staff knows how to mold runners and both guys had big breakout seasons as Jr’s and Benka is hoping to do the same. Look for him to be competing for a top 3 spot in AA. (18^th @ AA States in 16:53)

32. Dominic Hockenberry, So Lake-Lehman (2AA)- Very few freshmen break the 17:00 mark at the XC state meet, but he was able to do so. Hopefully this young man continues to improve on his already obvious talent. (22^nd at AA States in 16:56)

33. Chris Kazanjian, Sr Penncrest (1AAA) – Chris shocked a lot of people, even myself, with a huge race at XC states placing 20^th. I was hoping this would be the start of a breakout career for him, but he was quite silent on the track. He’ll be looking to bounce back and prove he’s worthy of medaling again in a very deep AAA field.

34. Joesph Logue, Sr Pennridge (1 AAA) – Logue has never seemed like much of an XC guy, but he showed great speed in the 1500 with a 3:55. As he has grown and now has no relay teams to work with, I believe he’ll be moving up in distance to the 1600. This XC season will be giving him the base and I think he’ll be upping millage. This could be a bust, but Logue is a hard, driving worker and I believe he’ll be successful with this change.

35. Eric Diestelow, Jr West Chester East (1AAA) – Wasn’t totally sure were to put Diestelow on this list. He’s an XC stud for sure, but didn’t have a breakout track season. He’s a year older and most guys’ breakout as juniors. I think he can really blossom this XC season and will be fighting for a medal at the state meet.

36. William Cather, Sr State College (6AAA) – Cather really broke out in the 800 both indoors and outdoors until he was plagued with an injury around his district meet. He had a disappointing finish last XC season, taking only 68^th place in 17:01, but he looks to turn around his luck with a new year.

37. Brandon Bilotta, Sr La Salle (12AAA)- Most of La Salle has graduated, leaving Bilotta and Sophomore Patrick Grant. He ran well indoors and outdoors in the longer distances and seems to be an XC guy. With 9:25 3200 credentials and sub 2 800, he’ll be trying to lead this team back to states in what should be a battle for the District 12 championship.

38. Kyle Francis, Sr Bensalem (1AAA) – As a breakout 800 start with a couple 1:51 splits Francis could very well become an XC star. He has made it to states the past two season and usually surprises at districts on a fast course. I bet he can place top 10 or 15 in district 1, but it’ll be tougher for him to medal at states due to hills. He may prove me wrong, and if he does he’s got top 20 potential. He was 57^th a year ago.

39. Nathan Sloan, Sr Hampton (3AAA) – I really liked what Sloan did this outdoor season as he dropped a 4:19 1600 and a 9:43 3200 on the double from a 4:24 early in the season. He seems to be a strength runner and that will greatly aid him for XC.

40. Brad Wilt, Jr  Biglerville (3A)- Wilt stepped up at states last year in XC for a 12^th place finish in A and he’s looking to continue that success this season. He won D3 AA in the 1600 with a 4:28 effort, along with his got the XC credentials he may have a big breakout season.

41. Chris Cummings, Sr West Chester East (1AAA) – Cummings was a real stud in XC for WCE as he placed 40^th at states. He had a tougher time on the track running 4:35 and 9:35, which is solid, but up to par with his XC times. He’ll be with some great training partners in Dages and Diestelow (whose name I’m hoping to be able to spell by the end of this year!) and I could see him climbing up this list.

42. Kevin Moy, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – A 4:16/1:55 guy only 42^nd on this list and 6^th on his team? That’s what you get with WCH. Moy may not even be on the top 7, but after a huge breakout this spring he may also be making his way up this list by the end of the season.

43. Billy Caldwell, Sr Downingtown West (1AAA) – Caldwell really impressed me at the end of the track season with his 4:20 mile and 1:55 800. He was 65^th at states last season and he’ll be working off this momentum.

44. Seamus Love, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Love ran a 4:28 mile and 10:36 3200 on the track and he’s in a tight working pack. Look for him to continue improving with the help of his teammates this XC season.

45. Aaron Lauer, Sr Red Land (3AAA) – Lauer was 64^th a year ago in XC and he added a 4:21 1600 to his name this spring season. He’ll be looking to improve into the mid to low 30’s in AAA or even grab himself a medal during XC.

46. Alex Knapp, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – Yes, I think that Henderson will have all 7 of their guys in the top 50. I have no idea if Knapp will be the one to cap off this group as Gordy Barchet and company look to grab spots of their own on this varsity squad. Knapp was 7^th man a year ago and I thought it was only fair to put him on this list.

47. Brian Arita, Jr Council Rock North (1AAA) – Here comes my CRN bias again, but Arita is ready to explode. He wants to add himself to the list of top juniors in the state. He’s got a lot of work to do, but I think he makes his way onto this list. He’s got multiple 9:59 3200 clocking to his name, but he’s really no track guy. CRN runners are known to break out as juniors and he wants to put his team back in that top 3 spot for XC states.

48. Scott Seel, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Seel was 45^th last year during XC, but only ran the 800 at track invitational’s this spring. This does worry me a bit, which is why he’s ranked as there 5^th guy. Not sure if NA will hold all 5 guys on this list and I may be giving them and WCH too much credit, but I do like the spreads of both teams and if you’ve got a 14 second spread, it’s hard to have 1 on the list without the other 4

49. Chris Kienzle, Sr Kennett (1AAA) – He’ll have a ton of competition coming out of the ches-mont league which is as strong as ever this year. Kienzle has 4:28 and 9:43 to his name and looks to make his way to the state meet out of a tough district one.

50. Jacob Connors, Jr Wilson (3AAA) – Connors is only an XC guy, but was able to run 17:03 at states for a 71^st place finish. If he can have a breakout season he’ll be in great shape for a medal run.

People to just miss the List in no particular order:

·         Trevor Blackwell, Jr New Castle (3AAA)

·         Jared Luckanitz, Jr Governor Mifflin (3AAA)

·         Jeffery Wiseman, Sr Council Rock South (1AAA)

·         Dylan Butera, Sr Strath Haven D1 AAA

·         Joe Sullivan, Sr Mrg Bonner (12AA)

·         Christian Donnelly, Sr Cardinal O’Hara (12AAA)

·         Alexander Balla, Sr Quakertown (1AAA)

·         Doran and Zatlin of Great Valley (1AAA)

Other A contenders:

·  Greg Wagner, Sr Jenkintown (1A) - Won District 1 A in 16:29 over Tom Seykora.

·    New Hope-Solebury returns there whole squad. (5 sr’s, a jr and so)

·   Gary Olson, Jr North East (10A) – Olson looks to step out of Smathers’ light this season after beating him at districts in XC last year. Smathers had a big Jr year, let’s see if he can do the same.

Other AA contenders:

·  Kyle Gonoude, Jr Salisbury (11AA) – Placed 16^th @ AA States in 16:52

·   Bo Dinger, Jr Punxsutawney (9AA)-  Placed 19^th @ AA States in 16:53

·   Kyle Shinn, Jr Wyomissing Area (3AA) – Placed 25^th @ AA States in 17:00. He’s the top returner in District 3 AA.

·   William Kachman, So Bedford High (5AA) – Placed 30^th @ AA States in 17:07. He also placed 4^th in the district 6 championships combined race. Also has another sophomore training partner in Zane Baker.

Potential Breakout Sophomores

·Jake Susalla, So Plum (7AAA)- Was 16^th at WPIAL’s last XC season as a freshman and ran 17:25 at states.

·  Kyle Ortiz, So Archbishop Wood (12AA) – Placed 5^th last season at districts. ABW has had some solid guys in the past.

·  Joeseph Pisacano, So St Joes Prep (12AAA)- Placed 15^th last season at districts.

·  Matt Murry, So Dunmore (2AA) – Ran 17:11 at XC states

·  Levi Upham, So Northeast Bradford (4A) – He’s got big shoes to fill now that Jewett and Williams are gone, but they are good mentors and I think he will be successful in the future.

·  Patrick Grant, So La Salle (12AAA) – Ran 4:31 for 1600 along with some solid 1200 legs indoors. They’ve got a great program and he’s got the potential to break out this season.

·  Dan Quigley, So Freedom (11AAA) – Was 5^th at districts and will be chasing Abert this season. He’s on a young Freedom team, who are returning 5 of their top 6. Look to see them back at states and possibly a top 10 finish in AAA.

· Stephen Baime, So North Allegheny (7AAA) – If Mike Meehan doesn’t return he’ll be needed to step up as will Chang (Sr) and McClure (Sr). Baime may be able to do major damage if he pans out well.
-- Thanks to a poster I learned about Rob Morro, So Cardinal O'Hara (12AAA) -- Totally over looked this kid as O'Hara had so many pieces last season. He dropped a 4:25 1500 and 9:56 for 3200. It's rare that freshman break 10 flat and usually means good things to come. He could be huge for O'Hara.

That's all for Now Folks!

--ForrestCRN