Thursday, June 27, 2013

Top 10 Teams

These are who I believe are the top 10 teams going into next years XC season.

Tonight I will post a list like Etrain did with just the Names and #'s to make it easier to see the lists for both individuals and teams.

Lastly, I talked with the blog owner and he/she will most likely not be doing blogging at all and I'll be taking over the account for the most part. The person will remain anonymous still.

Top 10 Teams 2013 XC Season
1. West Chester Henderon: They have the Returning State Champion, a two time All-American, 4 All-Americans, and they’re the returning state champions in XC. What more could you ask for? Oh wait, about 14 guys with the potential to make varsity. This team has such extreme depth that they would still contend for the title with injuries to Russell and Barchet (Reiny). Obviously I hope this doesn’t happen. These guys could be as good as ’06 Coatesville and if everything goes well they’ll be competing for a national championship. Crossing my fingers here, cause I’d love to see 4 or 5 medalists at the state meet from them and I think it’s possible.

2. North Allegheny: The one team with a chance at stopping Henderson from willing. Let’s look at the past two years—O’Hara was the team to beat these past two years, and both times they ended up losing in a tie breaker. Granted, Henderson looked to be on that level, but after losing 36-92 to Henderson at Briarwood things weren’t looking great for them, yet they pulled it off. When it comes to NA I have 2 questions. 1) Where is Mike Meehan? He was just a sophomore last season and was a second behind McGoey at the PCCI and was the top guy for NA at the PIAA Foundation meet placing 6th overall. If he is back and the team is anything like their 14 second spread (without Zemet) that they had at the Pittsburgh Central Catholic Invitational, they may just upset Henderson. That leads to my second question) How close will their spread be? All season they were under 20 seconds, but completing that at the state meet is very difficult. They fell apart a bit at the state meet, but still managed to finish 4th. They’re all a year older now and this experience could help them to that. Last teams to have such small spreads were ’06 Coatesville and ’96 Council Rock. If they want to win they’ll need to do so.

3. Cardinal O’Hara: Going into the past two season’s O’Hara has been one of the top two teams and finished 2nd on tie breakers. They’re going to have to work really hard and get lucky to finish top 2 again this season, but they do have great pieces despite the loss of 3 in their top 4. Kevin James is one of the best runners in the state and Belfatto is a great #2. Nick Smart was injured during XC last season, but he’s a 1:55 strength guy who could break into the top 50. Christian Donnelly and Drew Pastore traded off spots quite a bit last year and both will need to step up to push O’Hara into the top 2. Overall this is a squad that has 5 solid runners which is more than most teams in the state currently have.

4. Lower Dauphin: This team returns its top 4 and they have a lot of room to grow on last season. Cole Nissley and Jeff Groh are a great 1-2 tandem and their 3-4 guys from last season, Josh Santeusanio and Josh Weidner, both ran solid at the state meet. They seem to be the top team in district 3 right now, and coming out of a strong district like that on top is always helpful. There 6-7 guys are also returning which provides them with a greater depth than most teams. Weidner seemed to take the next step this spring with a 4:30 1600 and Jack Mulligan started to catch up with the group. Groh will have to reprove himself in XC after he asserted himself this spring track season.

5. Council Rock North: I thought Brian Arita was 50th, sorry about that, and maybe you can rag me for putting these guys in the 5th position, but hear me out. Ross Wilson is a fantastic front man; Arita and Griswold have both started coming into their own and are in great position to break out next season. Jesse Laitman was 17:13 at districts and he’ll be moving onto the varsity squad. Rob Simmons will be running XC for the first time and he’ll be the biggest question mark on the top 5. He ran fantastic relay splits, but wasn’t great in open races. I think of XC in many ways to a relay squad because you’re running for a top 5 spot on your team and low points. Again, this is a team with a great front runner, a solid 2-3 punch and a 4-5 that should be decent enough to get them out of district 1.Plus they have historically great coaching.

6. Great Valley: Much like 06’ when Coatesville was dominant beyond imagine, the Ches-Mont league was extremely strong. This could be the case again. GV has a shot to prove themselves again as a top squad in PA. Lead by Matt Willig who looks to verify his prowess as an XC force they have a really strong pack behind him. Doran hit 9:03 at the Yale relays but never got close afterwards and Zatlin (9:41 3200) has battled injuries the past two years. Both guys are waiting to break out. Behind that they have two 4:41 1600 guys in Peter Flanagan and Sam Marano. Both will need to prove themselves in XC, but have strong potentials. Kyle Kilroy will also be back for XC, I don’t believe he runs track, and was their 6th man last season. If this pack can come together being Willig they very well could pass CRN.

7. State College Area: They’ve got a real nice front runner in Cather (4:22/1:55) and there spread 2-5 last season was under 30 seconds. If they can keep this up with their top 6 guys returning you might see SC become a force at the state meet. I don’t know too much about the guys on this team, but they really could be a top 3 team if they keep improving. It all depends on how fast there 2-5 can be at the state meet. They didn’t make it last season which makes it tough to really predict where they will be for XC. Here are some quick stats though: Sam Bollinger 4:33/1:58, Kyle Adams (#2 last year) 1:57, Matt Beyerle 4:48/10:01, Alex Milligan: 4:44/10:07. Most were underclassman, so if they can make the sophomore to junior jump we may see this team climb the list very quickly.

8. Tunkhannock: It’s rare a AA team gets on the list, but they had a 34 second spread last year at states and they return their top 4 and their 6th man Jacob Toczko who was just a freshman and right behind their track stud Alex Nole. This group should continue to improve together and with a 40 second spread of less they should take the AA title quite easily. Hopefully they get into some big XC meets to prove themselves against these AA teams, since they have a solid 5 guys unlike many teams on this list. Toczko is another freshman to look for as he ran 4:51 and 10:35 which are real solid marks for a freshman. If he takes the next step and even leads this group they’ll be golden and maybe a top 5 team in PA.

9. Fox Chapel: Behind WCH they easily have the best 1-2 punch in the state with the Martin twins. Scoring 10 points or so with two guys is always helpful when it comes to team scoring. Behind them are juniors Elias Graca and Aaron Bliss. Both were only 18 flat last season on the Hershey course, but if they can push each other, and with the help of the Martin twins they could both really improve. FC will still need a 5th man that could come through in Chris Good (10:41 3200), but these 3 still have a long way to go.

10. West Chester East: Cummings, Diestelow, and Dages. This is a wonderful top 3 that will serve WCE quite well. There 4-7 graduated though which is a big hit to this team. I’ve heard rumors about Ryan Orr (jr ) being a solid #4 who was injured in XC and didn’t run track, but they’ll need more than that if they want to make it to states. The biggest thing they have on their side is a lot of competition on a daily basis in the Ches-Mont league. Guys could step out of the woodwork for them.



Teams to Just miss the list: Abington Heights (return 1-5 and missed states by 1 point), North Penn, Pennsbury, William Penn Charter, and Hempfield.

That's all for now Folks!

--ForrestCRN

30 comments:

  1. I don't like the Lower Dauphin or the Fox Chapel pick. District 3 teams always implode at States, Lower Dauphin will be lucky to stay in the Top 10. At the very least, I think GV and CRN will beat them. And as good as the Martins are, it takes five to make a team, and Fox Chapel just doesn't have that. Their 3-5 got 169th, 172nd, and 177th last year. I can't imagine that will get the job done.

    Also I'm pretty sure Mike Meehan graduated. Or failed a few times and is now ineligible to run.

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  2. Honestly not a bad list at all. Relatively fair. I don't agree on everything but then again, who will? I was skeptical at first with LD being ranked at 4th but your explanation made me think otherwise. I would probably put them at 7 and move GV and CRN to 5 and 4 respectively. I'd put WCE at 6. They're too good to just be at 10. That #4 guy everyone is talking about is not Ryan Orr but Sean Daughtery who ran 16:57 at one point. That's why I put them at 6. And lastly, I just don't see Fox Chapel doing it. They need massive improvement with they're 3-5 guys and that's going to take a lot. They'll be good and they'll develope. But they don't make my list. And let's not forget about Penncrest! The Kaz bros are a huge threat and they have some very nice support behind them. Here's my list:

    1-Henderson
    2-NA
    3-OHara
    4-CRN
    5-GV
    6-WCE
    7-LD
    8-State College
    9-Penncrest
    10-Tunkhannock

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    1. I believe it is spelled Dougherty not Daughtry. But yes I agreed that its a good list Forrest!

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    2. I agree almost entirely with this list. Maybe not the Penncrest pick, but the rest of it for sure.

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  3. Surprised you left Rob Morro out of O'Hara write-up. Seems to be a better candidate for Top 5 if he stays healty (other than the fact he isn't an 800 guy)

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    1. He ran in the 9:50s as a freshmen so he should have a good xc season

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  4. Didn't 06' Coatesville have a big spread? Because the Dawson Brothers were way up front then the next guy was about 30 seconds behind?

    What was added to the States course in '07? That's about when times went from low 15's to the relative times that are run today.

    As for Great Valley, Kyle Kilroy will be a top runner if he doesn't get hurt. Ever since freshman year he has been so naturally gifted, but injury has gotten the better of him. He's a competitive skier/triathlete so his hips are often an issue come XC, but if he doesn't get hurt and can actually he will be running with their top guys and come States they may have the manpower to have four guys under 17 and 1 hopefully around 17:30. Unfortunately, Kyle doesn't like track so XC is his only sport.

    Henderson is definitely the team to beat. I kind of want to see what they can do at districts though. I want their whole squad to run hard at districts and see just how many people under 16 they can get (I assume their whole varsity squad). Maybe Russell even takes a crack at 15. He will have people pushing him. A week is more than enough time to recover and it's Lehigh. If they can't recover from that flat course then they wouldn't be in shape enough to win States anyway.

    -RTJ

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    1. RTJ
      The states course changed in '07 from a relatively fast course to the current poop-out hill course it is today. Someone once said something about Scranton Prep and Dallas's multiple state championships had something to do with the change, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is that the courses are completely different despite both being by Hershey Park.

      -GB

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  5. Out of curiosity, RTJ stated high school runners shouldn't be doing more than 60 miles per week (I assume he means seniors and juniors). Yet you see writeups and hear rummors for higher mileage.

    So who is planning on running MORE than 60 miles per week by the end of summer? And who is planning not to hit that max?

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  6. Russell and especially Barchet struggled through indoor & outdoor season this year-hope they are ok. Could they be possibly maxed out? Does Henderson's program burn guys out by over-running them? Kelly doesn't strike me as that type of coach though-he seems interested in developing a runner slowly to keep them healthy. Just a thought.

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    1. They both ran sub 9:10 outdoors. How many juniors ran that fast this year? They didn't have a great Nationals but still ran a State record and missed being AA by .4. Tony looked like he struggled after hurting his ankle at Penn. Still, he ran 9:07 and 4:14 after that. I'm sure they'll be out to prove something in the fall. Reiny looked bad after Ches-Monts. It seemed like a long season for him. We'll see if they make adjustments. When will they open up in xc?

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  7. Russell and Barchet did NOT struggle through indoor. Please take that statement back. 2nd at states for tony in the mile. At nationals tony split 4:11 for full mile and barchet ran 4:20. Both of which are pr's.

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  8. They did have a great race at Indoor Nat's-especially Russell. Maybe since they were so great at XC, the track expectations were unrealistic for some people. Maybe they are more purely xc guys? I don't know,maybe the season was just too long for them. Did Barchet even run at States this year?

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  9. Their expectations weren't unrealistic. They both were expected to do well indoor, which they did. Russell transcended his expectations many times. I don't think anyone saw that 8:38 coming at Yale while Barchet ran very solid as well.

    Now, coming off indoor nationals, both of them had high expectations. I believe they burnt out towards the end of outdoor. Henderson invite was both of their most impressive races then it was down hill from there. Russell held it together better, but he was still struggling towards the end of the season. With a few days off running, he managed to run a PR at the distance festival.

    This was all a learning experience though. It's hard to do XC nationals, indoor nationals, and outdoor nationals. I bet next year they choose 2/3. I would cut outdoor nationals if I were them. They need to focus on their college training and I don't think they'd want such a huge chunk of their summer taken away. Just do XC/Indoor and then take a good break and come out strong for outdoors.

    -RTJ

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    1. I don't know about you, but from what I understand there were a lot of people anticipating a sub 8:40 at Yale. People knew he could do it and Yale would be the best place to run it. I wasn't surprised when he did it. Although ill agree with you on the burning out part come Outdoor Nationals.

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    2. Not to mention it likely will conflict with Senior Week...priorities, ya' know?

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    3. One of the reasons Ohara didn't go this year you know turn up!

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  10. So where are all those Ohara seniors going to college?

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    1. I know savage is St Joes

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    2. Pitone is going to Widner Pastore to Pitt and Hayes is going to york

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  11. The Martin brothers are a better duo than Russell and Barchet in my opinion. They had a greater number of solid races than they did, plus they really showed up when it mattered. 9:10 and 9:16(?) at the state meet for the Martins compared to Russell's 4:20 for 5th and Barchet's 9:40 something in the 3200.

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  12. Russell was 6th.

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  13. Hey guys, I've had a really busy week/weekend (at my bay house) I'll be making a combined post Monday along with some changes to the rankings just slightly with explanations as to why.

    Also, the Martin brothers may be a better track Duo, but even that is debatable when Russell and Barchet both ran sub 9:10 while neither of the twins did (although in the right race I know they could have), but in XC Barchet and Russell went 1-2 at Regionals, Russell won states the meet before and the meet after Barchet went All-American (21st in the nation). So I'm not sure how you can doubt that combo being the top in the state.

    --ForrestCRN

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    1. Change rankings to what? The team or individual?

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  14. The Russell/Barchet are easily the better XC duo. By a lot. In track it's closer, but Russell/Barchet would still be better than the Martin bros. Tony is better than Ethan in the 800-5k and Barchet is better than Colin in the 3200-5k (Idk what his best 800 is but I know it's not his penntrack PR). Barchet is better than Ethan at the 3200-5k as well. The Martin duo is a sick duo, but Russell/Barchet may be one of the best duos the state has seen, especially in XC. When I think of those two I think of Miles/Bernitt, Furcht/Berman, the North Hills trio (i know it's not a duo...). They are legit.

    -RTJ

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  15. Who is Jim Dillner?

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  16. What ever happened to that updated top 50 list?

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  17. XCNation has Henderson rated as number 2 in the nation.

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  18. Who is number one? CBA? Can you post the link to the site?

    -RTJ

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  19. It's www.xcnation.com and yes CBA is #1.

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