Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Updated Top 50 Runner List

Top 50 Runners XC 2013 going into the season

I feel as though I wasn’t fair to you guys with the list being scrambled so I re-did it. They are in order of where I believe they are going into this 2013 XC season. I will make the list with just names right after this.


1. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – There have only been two repeat AAA champions in the past two decades and both were exceptional runners: Danny Coval and Craig Miller. I think Russell has a 33.3% chance of joining this small group. He’s the strongest of any guy in the field, fantastic coaching, and great work ethic. The state course makes it difficult for guys to repeat and so many things can happen on any given day, but I believe he’s the top XC runner in the state of Pennsylvania. He wasn’t as mind blowing on the track as he is in XC, but 4:12 split for a mile and 9:08 with a good bit of leading in the 3200 is no joke. He’s the Hershey course record holder and defending NXNE Regional champ, it’s tough to bet against this guy.

2. Brent Kennedy, Sr Kiski Area (7AAA) – State Runner up for XC in 15:52. He’s a FL finalist, 15:03 5k on the track, 4:17 mile, and 9:13 3200. He was second to Russell last year and is a very strong runner. I’ve always been fairly up on Kennedy, but for some reason I’ve got my doubts on where to place him and I’ve got an odd feeling he’ll be like Jaskowak and underachieve in XC compared to the year before. He’s as hungry as Wilson I’m sure. I’m truly hoping he proves me wrong, because if a senior is going to take the title from Russell I think he’s got the best shot of doing so.

I’ll be honest 3-5 is tricky for me. Wilson didn’t lose to Barchet last year at all (Barchet beat Wilson freshman year at XC districts I believe). If someone could find a race where it happened show me, but right its Wilson 7-0. Martin and Wilson have gone back and forth but in this past year in state meets Martin is 3-0 vs Wilson. (Wilson got him at Penn Relays). Barchet is an XC All-American though. I wish I could give them a tie for 3rd, but I know that would piss everyone off, so here’s my best go.

3. Ethan Martin, Sr Fox Chapel (7AAA) – 3200m State Champ and was a double gold winner at WPAIL’s for the 1600 and 3200 over his twin brother and Kennedy. I want to say it’s Colin’s time to shine, but Ethan seems to be a few steps ahead both with speed and strength as he threw down a 28 closing 200 at states. He placed 5th last year and is the 3rd returner. Having his brother to train with everyday won’t allow him to slack at all after his recent success, as Colin will be gunning for him. This will keep him sharp and ready for XC, but don’t be too surprised if his brother steps it up.

4. Ross Wilson, Sr Council Rock North (1AAA) – I’m sure I’ll get ragged on for this pick, but Ross Wilson is the most motivated guy in the state right now. Russell, Brehm, Martin all have state titles, and he’s hungry to join that group. I think he’ll end up doing it in the 3200 outdoors, but just falling short in cross. He’s grown his speed running 4:17 for 1600 and has one of the top times in the 3200. Etrain continually said he couldn’t keep running hard, but the man ran 8:29, 9:09, 4:17/9:21 double, 9:14 district win, and 9:12 at the state meet. He’s a tank and comes from a program of great coaching and history. I think he goes to nationals as well. placing 5th at Footlocker.

5. Reiny Barchet, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – The only XC All-American from PA. With such an amazing squad, that could be as good as the Coatesville team from ’06 he’ll have tons of motivation for this season. His list of credentials is as long as his teammate Tony Russell, and if they 1-2 at the state meet I wouldn’t be shocked. He started to burn at the end of outdoor; probably due to the extended seasons, but with some time off he’ll be back for his primary sport: XC. He’s got a big dog to chase, so he doesn’t have the spot light and this could open up an opportunity for him to take the individual state title away from his teammate, mush like Quinn did to Hibbs two years ago. He’s got a 9:08 to his name for 3200 as well, don’t forget it.

6. Kevin James, Jr Cardinal O’Hara (12AAA) – Hunger + Redemption = A great combination for high success. Kevin James no longer has hopes at a team title as he did the past two years, but instead will be pushing to win a title of his own individually. Without guys like Savage and Pitone in front of him will and team aspirations, will he have the drive to succeed as he has this past season? I believe he does. James know how to get it done and became the spot light this past season unlike many underclassman who are in the shadows of their senior counterparts. He may have a better shot than Brehm to take the title as a Jr. He’s got a 4:15 Mile and 9:13.9 3200.

7. Sam Webb, Jr Pennsbury (1AAA) – How many times can a junior run sub 4:20 for 1600 and 9:14 for 3200, be a multi-state medalist as a sophomore and somehow be 2nd  in his class? Yeah, these guys are ridiculous, but so is Sam Webb. His training partner and mentor, Connor Harriman, is now gone which does bother me a bit, but Webb has his eyes on state gold and he’s got competition on all levels whether its dual meets with Wilson or trying to become the top Jr in PA. He’ll be ready to roll and he’s got a solid group behind him looking for a top 5 XC finish after missing out on making it to states last year.

8. Dominic Deluca, Sr Dallas (2AA)—Deluca placed second last year at Foundations to Harriman’s big kick, but was nicked by an injury and placed 11th at AA states last XC season. He is the top returner in AA, and oh… he silently ran 9:13 for 3200 at the Henderson Distance festival this spring. He will be looking to take on the mantle of the great AA runners from last season, and I think he will step up to do so. Don’t look for something amazing at states, but he’ll be in the mix with these top guys throughout the season at XC meets all over.

9. Colin Martin, Sr Fox Chapel (7AAA) – Being the twin of a state champion is always tough, but he’s almost at his brother’s level. He’ll be looking to prove himself after a breakout spring season. FC has two up and coming juniors and with one more piece they’ll be a force. He’ll be looking to finish top 5 with his brother at the state meet. He was 16th at XC last season before his big break out. 4:18 1600 and 9:14 3200

10. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (3AAA)—After running the top Mile time in PA as only a sophomore and winning the 800 at states, Brehm looks to continue the trend and be the 3rd junior in a row to win the AAA XC state title. His 9:18 is a solid mark, but he’s the 5th returning So, and has to prove himself on the hills. The kid is crazy talented, but I don’t see him taking down the title. I’m sure I’ll regret this decision later on. I think he takes 3rd at states, but ends up going to nationals in a 8th place finish at regionals, if he pans out as an XC runner. If not, he could fall as ‘low’ as 15th at the state meet.

11. Colin Abert, Jr Easton (11AAA) –He finished as the top sophomore at XC states last season (12th), and now I’ve got him ranked 4th in his class. This may be my biggest mistake on this list. Abert went out really hard and Etrain and I both thought he would die, but he ran strong the whole race. He’s really gutsy and added a 4:20 1600 to his credentials this past spring season. He didn’t make much noise in the 3k or 3200 (9:40), but I’d have to imagine he’ll find his way into the top 10 at AAA states.

12. Jake Brophy, So Central Bucks East (1AAA)—Yes, I know, Jake Brophy, a Sophomore is in my top 10 list. It hasn’t happened since Vince McNally in ’05. Abert was 12th this past year as the top So, but Brophy was just 5 seconds off medaling last season and is a gutsy runner. The first 3200 he ran at Helman was a 9:43, he went out in 5:00 with Brian Arita and then dropped a 4:43. He then improved that time with a 9:32 finish at districts. Sam Webb ran that same time at districts as a freshman and finished 14th at XC the next season, but Brophy has a bigger XC background. With the solid coaching of Paul Wilson (yes father of Ross Wilson), Brophy will look to begin to make his dents in PA history.

13. Jeremy Parsons, Sr Maplewood (10A) – He’s probably the best XC runner you’ve never heard of. Top returning A runner after placing 5th last season. A was really quite strong last year, but this division lost a lot of great guys, we’ll see if he can step up to prove that A is worthy of recognition once again. In the spring he didn’t run very much, but does have a 9:45 3200 to his name, and it seems he will be a factor again in the A scene. (16:28 @ states). His twin brother Jake had an off-day at states and could very well be a top finisher. Watch out for this duo.

14. Sam Ritz, Jr Germantown Academy (Independent League) – Sam as under his old brother Ben’s shadow all year until his breakout race at the distance festival where he ran 4:11 for a full mile. He’s also got a 9:22 3200 under his belt. He’ll be in the spot light now, which does scare me a bit, but I think his talent will propel him to be an XC stud. It’ll be tough to show how good he truly is, but I hope he places well at regionals. I doubt he’ll have what it takes to get to nationals though.

15. Matt McGoey, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – NA will be gunning for WCH this season and McGoey will be leading the charge. He had a poor race last year at states, but stepped up this spring season with a 9:23 3200. I think he’ll be the one to step up and lead this really tight pack.

16. Aaron Gebhart, Jr New Oxford (3AAA) – It’s easy to be over looked when you’re in a class of 3 Sophomore XC medalist’s and a 4:09 So Miler, but Gebhart has silently improved and placed well in both XC and in spring track. He was 28th at states in XC (16:33) and ran 9:32 in the 3200. He will need a big jump to keep up with his fellow classmates, but he should still be a force in District 3 and a state medalist in AAA.

17. Griffin Molino, Jr South Williamsport (4A) – Molino was 8th in A last season and was overshadowed in District 4 by Williams and Jewett. Now that they have left he’ll be taking the spotlight. He really broke out this spring running 9:26 for 3200 and 4:24 for 1600. I think he’s got a great shot at being the second A state champion in state history.  (16:36 @ states).

18. Cole Nissley, Sr Lower Dauphin (3AAA) – On an LD team of some up and down runners, Cole Nissley has proved to be extremely consistent. He finished 6th at districts and came back to place 33rd at the state meet. It’s always tough to complete that back-to-back. He and Groh will be a force in district 3 and they hope to lead LD to a top 5 finish at the state meet.

19.  Matt Willig, Sr Great Valley (1AAA) – Hmmm, what to say about Matt Willig… He seems to always step it up at the best times. Right when I start thinking that he’ll be a bust, he does something like place 29th at the state meet.

20.  Christian Kardish, Sr Holy Ghost Prep (1AA) – Kardish was out most of last XC season due to an onset on Mono. He recovered quite nicely and in spring going 4:20 for 1600. He was a 4:18 guy as a sophomore and ran well in XC before the mono and I think he’ll be out to prove himself as a senior. HGP has had some very successful runners recently and I think he competes for a AA title.

21. Jim Belfatto, Sr Cardinal O’Hara (12 AAA) – Belfatto was fairly unheard of until his amazing 9:22 on the track in XC last season before regionals. He went on to run some solid 1600’s and 8’s indoors and outdoors. It seemed that he sacrificed a lot to try and help the O’Hara relays that sadly never panned out. With his focus this season on longer distances, much like Logue, we could very well see him explode. He’s a strength runner which is great for XC and he’ll be looking to help O’Hara back to the state meet/

22. Ben Szuhaj, Jr Penn Charter (Independent League) – Ben ran very well at XC regionals for a sophomore and his 9:00 3k in December really impressed me, but he fell off the map until the Henderson distance festival where he ran 8:51 for 3k. He could be coming into his own and if so he’ll be a real force next season and may be battling with Sam Ritz.

23. Aiden Demko, Jr Hershy (3AAA) – It’s tough coming out of District 3 and running well at the state meet. Todaro was able to do it, but Demko may have lost a lot of deserved credit after placing 12th at districts and then 85th at the state meet. He beat Gebhart, but didn’t have a great track season, only running 9:43 for 3200. He’s going to have to step it up to be considered as a top jr, but still has great potential with a good running partner in Will Sponaugle.

24. Eric Stratman, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) –Stratman will very likely be there #3 as he has 4:19 1600 and 9:28 3200 to his name. He was there #3 at Ches-Mont’s but 6th at states, his high positioning gave them the win. But with this teams depth even a guy like him could be fighting to stay on the varsity team.

25. Chris Kazanjian, Sr Penncrest (1AAA) – Chris shocked a lot of people with a huge race at XC states placing 20th. I was hoping this would be the start of a breakout career for him, but he was quite silent on the track. He’ll be looking to bounce back and prove he’s worthy of medaling again in a very deep AAA field.

26. Patrick Reilly, Sr Dallastown (3AAA)- He placed second at Districts last year, but had a bad race at the state meet. He only ran 9:35 for 3200 this spring, but he’s always performed better during XC.

27. Jeff Groh, Lower Dauphin (3AAA) – Groh was the district 3 XC champ two years ago as just a sophomore, but he had major issues in XC last season. He came back well on the track running 4:16 and 9:23. He could very well be in shape to place top 10 at the state meet, especially with a great partner in Nissley. I’m still a bit hesitant to put him any higher, but he could easily move up on this list.

28. Sam Haugh, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA)—Here begins the WCH pack. Honestly, I hate having to pick one guy over the other for this team as anyone could step up for them to take a spot 3-7. Haugh got injured before regionals, but was there #4 man at states and Ches-Mont’s for XC. It seems to be his sport and he’ll be looking to gain that back this season.

29. Cordon Louco, Sr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Louco made some major improvements as a junior and he’ll be the big senior leader on this NA squad. He ran 9:29 for 3200 and was very consistent throughout XC and track this past year.

30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – And now it seems we round out Henderson’s top 5. Collins looked to be a great 1200 with fantastic strength indoors and the start of outdoors until he faded while Moy and Stratman came on the scene. I think he comes up big during XC for them and runs some strong times.

31. Aaron Benka, Jr Grove City (10AA)- Benka is the next man in line to be a great Grove City runner after recent success stories like Jaskowak and Kildoo. This coaching staff knows how to mold runners and both guys had big breakout seasons as Jr’s and Benka is hoping to do the same. Look for him to be competing for a top 3 spot in AA. (18th @ AA States in 16:53)

32. Dominic Hockenberry, So Lake-Lehman (2AA)- Very few freshmen break the 17:00 mark at the XC state meet, but he was able to do so. Hopefully this young man continues to improve on his already obvious talent. (22nd at AA States in 16:56)

33. Eric Diestelow, Jr West Chester East (1AAA) – Wasn’t totally sure were to put Diestelow on this list. He’s an XC stud for sure, but didn’t have a breakout track season. He’s a year older and most guys’ breakout as juniors. I think he can really blossom this XC season and will be fighting for a medal at the state meet.

34. William Cather, Sr State College (6AAA) – Cather really broke out in the 800 both indoors and outdoors until he was plagued with an injury around his district meet. He had a disappointing finish last XC season, taking only 68th place in 17:01, but he looks to turn around his luck with a new year.

35. Chris Cummings, Sr West Chester East (1AAA) – Cummings was a real stud in XC for WCE as he placed 40th at states. He had a tougher time on the track running 4:35 and 9:35, which is solid, but up to par with his XC times. He’ll be with some great training partners in Dages and Diestelow (whose name I’m hoping to be able to spell by the end of this year!) and I could see him climbing up this list.

36. Matt Kazajian, Sr Penncrest (1AAA) – Matt was a total miss on my last list and I apologize for that. His twin has had some big races, but they train together and Matt has big upside. He worked as an 800 to up his speed and strength this past season but he ran 9:34 for 3200 as a sophomore and finished 47th at states a year ago.

37. Seamus Love, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Love ran a 4:28 mile and 10:36 3200 on the track and he’s in a tight working pack. Look for him to continue improving with the help of his teammates this XC season. 

38. Kyle Francis, Sr Bensalem (1AAA) – As a breakout 800 start with a couple 1:51 splits Francis could very well become an XC star. He has made it to states the past two season and usually surprises at districts on a fast course. I bet he can place top 10 or 15 in district 1, but it’ll be tougher for him to medal at states due to hills. He may prove me wrong, and if he does he’s got top 20 potential. He was 57th a year ago.

39. Nathan Sloan, Sr Hampton (3AAA) – I really liked what Sloan did this outdoor season as he dropped a 4:19 1600 and a 9:43 3200 on the double from a 4:24 early in the season. He seems to be a strength runner and that will greatly aid him for XC.

40. Brad Wilt, Jr  Biglerville (3A)- Wilt stepped up at states last year in XC for a 12th place finish in A and he’s looking to continue that success this season. He won D3 AA in the 1600 with a 4:28 effort, along with his got the XC credentials he may have a big breakout season.

41. Alex Knapp, Jr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – Yes, I think that Henderson will have all 7 of their guys in the top 50 at some point this season. I have no idea if Knapp will be the one to cap off this group as Gordy Barchet and company look to grab spots of their own on this varsity squad. Knapp was 7th man a year ago and I thought it was only fair to put him on this list.

42. Brandon Bilotta, Sr La Salle (12AAA)- Most of La Salle has graduated, leaving Bilotta, Greco, and Sophomore Patrick Grant. He ran well indoors and outdoors in the longer distances and seems to be an XC guy. With 9:25 3200 credentials and sub 2 800, he’ll be trying to lead this team back to states in what should be a battle for the District 12 championship.

43. Billy Caldwell, Sr Downingtown West (1AAA) – Caldwell really impressed me at the end of the track season with his 4:20 mile and 1:55 800. He was 65th at states last season and he’ll be working off this momentum.

44. Aaron Lauer, Sr Red Land (3AAA) – Lauer was 64th a year ago in XC and he added a 4:21 1600 to his name this spring season. He’ll be looking to improve into the mid to low 30’s in AAA or even grab himself a medal during XC.

45. Caleb Wakely, Sr Shaler Area (7AAA) – I do follow Caleb closely hoping for a comeback, and I should have given him respect on the list. If you are unsure who he is, he placed 25th at states his sophomore year and went on to run 9:32 for 3200. He hit some major injury issues and only placed 33rd at WPIAL’s during XC. He recovered slightly and ran 9:36 during this past track season, but it seems he’s still got work to do. If he can get some solid summer millage under his legs and a healthy XC season he should move up this list quickly. But even so he’s a very talented kid and should place top 50 even if he does have some issues.

46. Joesph Logue, Sr Pennridge (1 AAA) – Logue has never seemed like much of an XC guy, but he showed great speed in the 1500 with a 3:55. As he has grown and now has no relay teams to work with, I believe he’ll be moving up in distance to the 1600. This XC season will be giving him the base and I think he’ll be upping millage. This could be a bust, but Logue is a hard, driving worker and I believe he’ll be successful with this change.

47. Scott Seel, Jr North Allegheny (7AAA) – Seel was 45th last year during XC, but only ran the 800 at track invitational’s this spring. This does worry me a bit, which is why he’s ranked as there 5th guy. Not sure if NA will hold all 5 guys on this list and I may be giving them and WCH too much credit, but I do like the spreads of both teams and if you’ve got a 14 second spread, it’s hard to have 1 on the list without the other 3

48. Chris Kienzle, Sr Kennett (1AAA) – He’ll have a ton of competition coming out of the ches-mont league which is as strong as ever this year. Kienzle has 4:28 and 9:43 to his name and looks to make his way to the state meet out of a tough district one.

49. Jacob Connors, Jr Wilson (3AAA) – Connors is only an XC guy, but was able to run 17:03 at states for a 71st place finish. If he can have a breakout season he’ll be in great shape for a medal run.

50. Kevin Moy, Sr West Chester Henderson (1AAA) – A 4:16/1:55 guy is 50th on this list and 7th on his team? That’s what you get with WCH. Moy may not even be on the top 7, but after a huge breakout this spring he may also be making his way up this list by the end of the season. He really doesn’t have any XC credentials and he should probably be on the just missed list, but he’s too go in my opinion not to be.


Updated Just missed list in no particular Order
Trevor Blackwell, Jr New Castle D3 AAA
Jared Luckanitz, Jr Governor Mifflin D3 AAA
Jeffery Wiseman, Sr Council Rock South D1 AAA
Dylan Butera, Sr Strath Haven D1 AAA
Joe Sullivan, Sr Mrg Bonner (12AA)
Christian Donnelly, Sr Cardinal O’Hara (12AAA)
Alexander Balla, Sr Quakertown (1AAA)
Doran and Zatlin of Great Valley (1AAA)

Brian Arita, Jr Council Rock North (1AAA)

5 comments:

  1. You obviously put a lot into these lists but I can't follow your logic with the new & improved list. Based on absolutely no new results did you just have an epiphany about some guys? Guess we'll have to wait and see.

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  2. What happened with the old list is that some guys were based on where I thought they would be at the beginning on the season and others were where I thought they would be at the end, which is unfair and not true rankings. So I changed it to where I believe everyone is at the beginning of the season.

    I found out Mike Meehan of NA won't be running (graduated) and I forgot about Wakeley and Matt Kazanjian so I added them to the list.

    --ForrestCRN

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  3. Didn't realize that Moy hasn't run XC before.

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  4. Moy did run XC, which is why I said he "really doesn't have any XC credentials" not he has hasn't run XC before. He did run 16:31 at Lehigh at the district meet.

    --ForrestCRN

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  5. Seamus Love broke 10 in the 3200 in a dual meet early in the track season btw.

    ReplyDelete