Friday, January 24, 2014

New Balance Games and Kevin Dare Previews!



The New Balance Games have released their performance list and boy am I excited! On a professional level the Mile is absolutely stacked with guys including PA alum Craig Miller. We also will get to see Duane Solomon (US#2 All Time for 800m) go at it in the 600m with Erik Sowinski as they attempt to break the indoor 600m record which was set last year at this meet by Sowinski, should be fun!

Moving on to high schoolI am excited to see that Jim Belfatto will be running in the Mile Invitational heat. He’s seeded 11th out of the 16 accepted entries and it should be quite fast as Colson travels from VA and Irish is from CA to try and drop some fast times! Hopefully this leads to a big PR for Belfatto.

Sadly Sam Young just missed the Mile Alternate list, but she can still run the 2 Mile, which I would really like to see her do.

In the DMR Invitational section Quakertown and Radnor both snuck in with the 10th and 11th places. They’ll have to run 10:46 to make the SQS and I think on a fast track with big time competition they should be able to get pulled along to 10:40 low times.

On the girls side O’Hara looks to become PA #1 as they entered in a blazing seed time of 12:09.95 putting them on the top of the list. Garnet Valley races again after their big result of 12:40 last weekend as they look to prove their medal contention abilities are legit. I’m really excited to see if O’Hara can pull off the win as 3 NY teams are all seeded under 12:15. Amy Kelly will need a big leg at the end however. 

In the Girls 2 Mile Varsity race Elizabeth Chikotas opens up her indoor season after heartbreakingly missing FL Nationals as she captured the 11th spot. Her seed time of 10:50 shows her training must be going well and she’s ready to roll. I’m hoping this comes to fruition for the Penn State commit. Not far behind her will be Lansdale Catholics Kayla Connley who is seeded at a strong 11:01. Hopefully these PA girls can work together and bring home some strong PR’s. 

With Belfatto not in the Mile nor the O’Hara DMR team in the Invitational section I was really hoping we would see Kevin James in the 2 Mile, but sadly no PA guys will be toeing the line in the fast heat. The top PA guy is freshman Seth Slavin from Pleasant Valley who is seeded at 9:59! A freshman looking to break 10 indoors for 2 full Miles is incredible. He had a very strong XC season, but this does seem a bit ambitious. I do believe he’s got the talent to run sub 10 outdoors for 3200, but if he runs ~10:15 I’d be pretty excited.

PA boys look to dominate the 4x200m with 4 teams in the top including top seed Cheltenham who looks to break 1:29 for the first time this season. 

In the 600m run we get to see Jeff Wiseman try out the distance which very well could be his sweet spot! With his 400m speed in the 48’s and 1:52.9 800m to his name I think he would absolutely kill it in this race. He is seeded at 1:20 which is equivalent to a 1:52.00, and honestly I think he could very well pull it off as I see this being his perfect distance. He has two other guys pushing him in Matt Murray and Kwasi Applewhite who are both seeded at 1:20, so we shall see!

On the girls 600m run we also see some of PA’s top Mid-distance runners in Liz Reid and Hanna Brosky both much like Wiseman with very quick 400m times, but also extraordinarily successful at the 800m distance. They are bit ambitious with mid to low 1:30 seed times as a 1:30.00 equates to a 2:06 flat. I think sub 1:35 is very possibly for these two ladies putting them in the low 2:10 category before the state meet as they are both big time medal contenders. 

And now that I have finally scrolled down enough I have found the missing link with O’Hara… 7:50.24 seed in the 4x8… YES. This is so awesome to see them really going for it. I have no doubt these boys are in great shape and with 1:57ish splits from each guy on average is very do-able for them. No question they’ll break 8 and win this race. Possibly more shocking is Abington being seeded 4th in 8:02! Their coaching staff doesn’t mess around with seed times and are usually dead on. I would love to see Abington make a mid-distance comeback as they were a powerhouse while I was in high school. We shall see if this is true. Also in the race is Upper Darby seeded at 8:09. They’ve been running some solid open races as guys have moved down to the 400 and up to the Mile and I think they’ll have a great showing to run 8:12. O’Hara has also been ambitious enough to not only seed a B team under the SQS, but also a C team at 8:20! Let’s see what kind of shape they’re in! Penncrest is lurking at 8:24 just under the SQS and I’m not sure the reason for it since they clearly have the pieces to go faster.



I was lucky enough to obtain the heat sheets from Meet Director Ryan Foster earlier this afternoon, so Kevin Dare preview, here we go! (P.S. After looking through the heat sheets for the past few hours I have seen few to no mistakes in terms of runners matched with the correct heats. I thought they did quite a nice job).

In the Mile we see Terri Turner from SCSH along with Allie Wilson of Strath Haven, Maddie Sauer and Olivia Sargent of PB, and Elizabeth Morris of CBE. I really like Wilson’s kick to bring her home the victory in the last 200 to 300m in a sub 5:10 effort. I think she is in shape to run ~5:05 on a really good day, but she would have to be helped by the field. I’m excited to see how the PB girls do as well since they have a lot to figure out in terms of what relay they want to run at the state meet along with who is on the relay and which girls will run open events. They’re very deep and seeing how they race this weekend plays out may determine a lot for the state meet. 

On the boys side heat 3 of 4 looks pretty strong with Will Bragg of Cedar Crest racing again SC young guns in Heatwole and Milligan. Coakley from CD starts his season off along with Jeff Kirshenbaum of Methacton who I really like. 

In the fast heat we got some real rollers headlined by the return of Jeff Groh (LD) from injury! I am very happy to see him back and racing. This will be a big rust buster for him as he hasn’t raced since Districts in XC on the stress fracture. He’ll have some major competition however from the likes of 3 big time team duos: Grace and Tung from NP, Foust and Stroh from Altoona, and O’Connell and Sauer from PB. Also to note is Pat Hopkins of Methacton. This is clearly the deepest race of the day as there are at least 7 to 10 guys on this list with sub 4:31 potential and I think we see Brad Foust come away with the victory. I love his strength from XC (placed 21st at the state meet) and he’s gone under 2 many times. That combination is fantastic and really reminds me of Wade Endress. I think a 4:22 or 4:23 effort will win it, but a slew of 3-5 runners will be only a couple seconds behind. It will be a big grudge match. My dark horse is Alek Sauer. He’s got 50. Speed in the 400m, but he is also a sub 16 5k guy who constantly move’s up to the Mile. I think he sweet spot is the 1k/1200, but if he can hang until 200m to go, I don’t think he can be beat.

On the girls side in the 800m the fast heat has some stud names including Marissa Sheva who is coming off a sub 5 effort, Terri Turner who looks to improve on her 2:17 mark from December, along with Strath Haven relay hopefuls in Maddie Forbes and Jamie Kenney. Also look out for CV’s Laura Barnes, SC’s Emma Cousins, along with the Pennsbury duo of O’Connell and Twomey. I really like Sheva taking this race out hard and trying to take the speed out of Turner, who should be able to bring it home strong. CV is just opening their season, so I don’t expect a huge race out of Barnes, but a sub 2:20 from her wouldn’t be a surprise. I think it will take sub 2:13 to win it.

The Boys 800m run is STACKED as it is highlighted by Joe Logue of Pennridge and Will Cather from State College. Both runners have sub 1:55 potential if they can get the race to go out fast enough, and I think Cather will ensure this, especially since he went out in his last 800 race in a 54.5. If Logue goes with him or wait’s it out to kick home we could see an unbelievable race. Behind them is Joe Sullivan a 1:56 guy along with Cather’s teammate Kyle Adams who went sub 2 in December. Altoona’s Mitch Endress is also in the race and was part of their 8:06 team last weekend, plus the NP duo of Piscitelli and LeConey look to drop some PR’s. Don’t sleep on Jamar Nash either from MD who has run PR’s of 2 flat and 1:25 (600m) earlier this season and is on a roll. I’m also interested to see how Gunnar Sjoreen does from Conestoga, since he’ll be a big part of their relay team if they decide to put together a DMR. 

I don’t know all the names from the girls 3k, but it should be headlined by Mady Clahane from CV along with Hannah Molloy of Pennsbury. Behind them is freshman star Tate Dawson who will look to hang on and grab the SQS. 

The boys 3k is not as loaded as I might have hopped but it will be led by PA #1 Patrick Reilly from Dallastown. He ran fantastic last weekend on a flat track solo’ing the race, but hopefully he’ll get some help from Andrew Marston of ‘Stoga and Nissley of LD. Both state medalists in XC who haven’t had great track seasons so far, but I think they could notch it up this weekend. Christian Kardish also solo’d a 9:08 for 3k a few weeks ago and hopefully we can see him really roll with this pack as well. I think sub 9 efforts from all 4 are very possible. And don’t forget that we saw Jon Colwell from MC really breakout last season at this meet. This begs the question who could our 3k breakout star be this season at Kevin Dare? Some names to consider: Kyle Shinn and Jack DiCintio (Wyomissing), Matt Beyerle (SC), Yahya Soliman and Owen Seeber (CV), or maybe it will be Colwell’s teammate Darien Knudsen, but we will have to wait and see!

In the girls 4x8 we have a strong SH ‘B’ team toeing the line along with some stacked relays from CV, PB, Conestoga, and SC who all have girls on the double, but should be able to break the SQS. 

In the guy’s 4x8 HGP has loaded up with only Kardish on the double, while Altoona Area looks dominate with their main squad on the track looking to break 8 minutes against State College who has also stacked their relay with Adams, Golembeski, Post, and Cather! Methacton’s team should be strong with Hopkins and Duffy leading the charge, while we also get to see some hot teams from TV, Hershey, SH, MB, and Cedar Crest all of whom are looking for that SQS. I think Methacton will definitely get it with HGP, but all of them will be put in the dust by District 6 Rivals Altoona and State College. I’m really excited they’re going head to head even if many of them are on the double.

As for the TSTCA Meet #2 Cancelation there will be a post coming on Monday next week about it. I don't want to have too many posts during the weekend so I will be discussing that, it's implications, and possible solutions on the 27th.

Best of luck to all of those competing this weekend!

--ForrestCRN

P.S. You may see me in a Milesplit outfit at the PA Track Carnival and the TFCA of GP Meet of Champions doing some Interviews and Race Video Taping! But more on that later :)

6 comments:

  1. Girls

    Tate Dawson had a killer cross country season and I really hope she kills this 3k. She's not as strong as a miler as I would have hoped, but I'm hoping her 3k is sub 10:30.

    Normally I'd say Olivia Sargent takes it over Allie Wilson, but Wilson just has been on a hot streak with her races. 2:18, 5:13, 3:01 for her three races this season and that's no joke.

    I really want to see the kind of shape PB is in. They can usually peak at the right time and if they do run a stacked DMR, it will be absolutely filthy. Hoping that Maddie Sauer is recovered from troubles during XC.

    Liz Reid is a solid 200/400 runner, but I don't think she'll be able to beat Hannah Brosky who is on a hot streak of her own, beating her own PR's in the 400 and getting into form in the 800.

    Slim chance chance that O'Hara goes sub 12:15 unless they know something we all don't. Grace Mancini lead off/Amy Kelly anchor is great, but I don't think Grace will go under 3:48 or Amy under 5:05. Their middle pieces are also not too great, so I'm wondering about the time there.

    Very interested to see what Turner can produce in her mile/800 double. She anchored a fast time for her DMR so I want to see what she has.

    Boys...

    Hoping the Logue/Cather battle holds true since both seem to be doing great this season. I'm guessing Cather takes it out and Logue sits and kicks with 200 to go and ultimately gets the win.

    O'hara may have been a little ambitious with those seedings for the B/C relays, but who knows. Last year they had both an A/B sub 8:10 I believe? Why not again. Interested to see if Belfatto will run the mile or just save for the 4x800. I'd actually be surprised if he did since James isn't running anything but the relay.

    -RTJ

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  2. Milesplit outfit? You sold out? NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. I actually think this is a good gig. You're getting paid right Forrest? Although it may not be a lot, its a good incentive for him to actually come to the meets, personally see how these races play out, and meet the guys he's blogging about. Its a good move. Its not like his posts or quality of posts will diminesh. Congrats on the position Forrest!

      -RunFaster

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    2. I will just be putting up videos for them, it won't change any aspects about the blog, no need to worry :)

      As for getting paid, I'm not sure, lets see haha

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  3. Thought DD is PA #1 in the 3K.

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  4. The 4x8, 800, and mile will be the nicest races of the day. My predictions:
    4x8: State College 7:57 (Adams 1:58, Golembeski 2:01, Post 2:02, Cather 1:56 low) *watch for Adams this year, I totally see him going 1:54 outdoor. Not the strongest XC runner but quite the track runner.

    800: Logue 1:56.4 *Cather will take it out and Logue will kick. I do think that Cather will bounce back in the 4x8 and split faster than him or Logue's time in the open 800 however. Both are studs no doubt about it though. I can totally see it go either way.

    Mile: My gut says Groh, but I'd have to go with Foust just because he's more seasoned right now. Although my dark horse is Coakley for Central Dauphin. Not many people know his name but he was 34th at states as district 3 runner in XC; that takes a lot. I don't think he'll win, especially out of the third heat, but don't be surprised to see him go 4:29 or under and be in the top 4.

    Also is Central Dauphin putting out a 4x8? They always seem to find a way to him 8:00 every year.

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