I did some research on the different state meets that have happened and I've made a brief top 15, but it goes to 21 to add in some PA guys. I will go into more explanation on my picks next weekend once we get a finalized Footlocker List, but for now here are some general facts. Also below the top 21 runners I put a list of Undeclared runners (Meet not known) who could do some damage at Regionals.
*** = Great Chance of Placing top 10
** = Top 20 Runner
* = Top 25 Runner
- Alex Ostberg Sr. Hall, CT – I could sit here and name a million facts about Alex Ostberg. The kid is a total stud and he hasn’t slowed down at all this XC season including winning Manhattan and the New England Championships. Top 3 runner in the nation will win this meet with ease.
- Mike Brannigan – Sr. Northport, NY – Brannigan has been a bit up and down this season during XC and I think that’s why he’s taking his chances out of the Northeast region rather than the New York Regional Meet, which is really smart. He’s got more qualifying spots to get and he can sit back or go for Ostberg and potentially die, but even if he does, top 10 seems likely.
- Colin Abert – Sr. Easton Area, PA – 15:24 PTXC MR, 15:54 Paul Short MR, 15:47 @ Hershey for 5th place, 2nd as junior; 2nd Returner FL NE
- Edwin Rutto – Jr. St. Benedicts, NJ – 2nd at Brown Invitational; 4:13 Mile; Undefeated in NJ including wins at Shore Coaches and NJCTC’s; 3rd at Manhattan in 12:15 (Ostberg won in 11:57); Did not race at NJ Group Championships
- Nick Carleo, Sr. Newburyport, MA – Eastern Division 5 Winner in 15:36 (won by almost 40 seconds). Winner of the MIAA All-State Meet in 15:51. “Cruising through it” – Looked great in the race.
- Jake Brophy – Jr. Central Bucks East, PA – PA District One and State Champion in a 21 second MR of 15:24.
- Benito Muniz – Sr. Carmel, NY – One of the few NY guys to make it over to footlocker this year and they almost always do well. He just placed 8th at NY Feds and 6th at the state meet before that. He’s a 4:09 miler who has won 4 races this season and he’s also an Oklahoma State commit. That’s no joke.
- Ari Klau – Sr. Hall, CT – Second in New England in 15:39 (32 behind Ostberg and 7 in front of Gilbert). Placed 1st or Second in all 7 meets this season (Lost twice to Ostberg in Championship season and once to Moskowitz)
- Sam Ritz – Sr. Germantown Academy, PA – Ritz has really impressed me all season both over 5000m and his recent 9:10 3200 really blew me away.
- Casey Comber – Sr. Hatboro Horsham, PA – Comber has been close behind stud Jake Brophy all season long and he placed 3rd at District 1 and 6th at States.
- Evan Woods, Walt Witman, MD – 4A Maryland State Champion in 15:49; 3rd @ DCXC Invite in 15:20; 2nd to Diego Zarate twice but beat him by 7 seconds at States.
- Eli Moskowitz – Sr. Souhegan, NH – 4:18 1600m Runner. NH MoC Champion, 5th @ New England. Beat Klau at Manchester Invitational by 12 seconds. Also he’s Shane’s brother…
- Dominic Hockenbury – Jr. Lake Lehman, PA – His solo’d 16:01 at states shows just how good he is. Placed 2nd to Abert @ PTXC.
- Sidi Abdoulaye – Sr – Northfield Mount Hermon, MA – Undefeated, broke a 10 year CR by 29 seconds. Last year’s NEPSTA winner placed 14th. Training Partner Estevan Valez (30 seconds behind) also attending.
- Lucas Taxter – Eastern Division 1 Winner in 15:23. MIAA All-State Division 1 3rd place in 15:52. Also placed 4th at Brown Championship race in 15:22 (top 3 under 15:09)
- Quinn Cooney – Eastern Division 2 Winner in 15:37. MIAA All-State Division 1 winner in 15:44 – Fastest time of the day. Check out his ‘Stach and Mohawk -- http://ma.milesplit.com/videos?id=67723
- Andrew Ernst – Jr. Marblehead, MA – Runner up to Carleo by 6 seconds (15:57) at MIAA All-State Meet. Future Threat. Probably a top 35 finish.
- Cameron Daly – Outside threat placed 8th at New England’s in 16:01, only a junior. Also placed 2nd to Moskowitz at NH MoC’s.
- Green – *Dark Horse*
- Curtin – 15:5
- DiCintio – Strong Race again this year Top 25.
Undeclared
*Chris Skelly – Central Division 1 Winner in 14:55
**PJ Garmon – Easter Division 2 Runner-up in 15:39. MIAA
All-State Division 1 Runner-up in 15:47
(Quincy Tichenor – Second to Sidi Abdoulaye in the NEPSTA by
3 seconds
*Dan Schumacher – Outside threat placed 7th at
New England’s in 15:58.
**NY - Marco Pompilj – Won Brown Invitational in 14:56; 4th
@ NY Fed in 15:46
***NY – Aidan Tooker – 5th @ NY Feds
***NY - Patrick Tucker – 3rd at Brown
Invitational in 15:09; 3rd @ NY Fed in 15:42
*NY – Noah Carey, So – 2nd @ Bowdoin Classic;
12:47 @ Manhattan; 12th @ NY Federations (Top soph)
***Nikhil Pulimood – Sr. W Win-PL South, NJ – 2nd
Place Merged in Groups – 15:44
*Luke Petela – Sr. Haddon Township, NJ – 3rd in
Merged Group results – 15:49
*Aaron Groff
Nick Ciolkowski – 1st place at Jesuit
Championships in 12:40 for 4k; 12th @ NY States
*Eric Walz – Jr. Dulaney, MD – 4A Maryland State Meet
Runner-up in 15:56 (Fastest of the Day); 4th @ Glory Days
Invitational in 16:19 (Andrew Hunter winner in 15:44; Ryan McGorty 3rd
in 16:11); doubled 9:21/4:25 @ MD States.
***Diego Zarate – Sr. Northwest, MD – 4A Maryland State Meet
3rd place finisher; Beat Evan Woods @ MD West Regional and County
Championships; ran 12:37 @ Manhattan (Won his section); Undefeated until States
(9-1); MD State 1600m Champion in 4:15.
**Nick Fransham – Sr. North Harford, MD – 3A Maryland State
Champion in the fastest time of the day – 15:41. Won his last 6 meets.
*David Eisenhauer, Sr. Wilde Lake, MD – 3A Maryland State
Championship Runner-up; placed 2nd his past 4 meets (Last win was 9/13/14
over Fransham). 4:20 1600m runner.
--ForrestCRN
--ForrestCRN
Ok, let me ask the obvious question that can't wait for next week. How the hell does Abert get ranked above Brophy? (other than that, a very nice listing)
ReplyDeleteIf abert and brophy ran head to head 10 times, i would pick him winning at least 6 out of 10. I think he was a bit off during states but that happens. Just my opinion.
Delete^ No offense but he ran his racing style, he pr'd on the state course and he still got crushed like everyone else. I don't get that ranking.
DeleteAbert was the clear favorite coming into state based on his entire season's performance. Brophy's performance was blew my mind but I can't discount what Abert did in Paul Short (14:55) and PTXC (course record by a lot). I guess we will find out next week. My money is on Abert being the top PA finisher, closely followed by Brophy. .
DeleteIt's none of those reasons. It's who is ready to go to footlocker. Truly ready. Etrain and I can promote these later meets all we want. I, like Etrain, think they are a fantastic oppurtunity to run fast and compete at a bigger stage and extend a season that's already going well. Here's the thing though, unless you start your summer training really wanting to make nationals, you're not going to make nationals. You've got no shot. Running in November is brutal. When you control your season mentally to make it to the end of October it's very difficult to reset your mind for another month. It's more than the physical and the mental aspect of making nationals is the biggest piece in my mind.
DeleteColin Abert was a better runner than Ross Wilson during XC last year, but who did better at Regionals? Wilson. By a long shot. Why? Because this was in Wilson's mind every day during the summer. There was nothing that would distract him. Abert on the other hand was thinking of PTXC, Districts, and States. Then to transition a month later of training without a full team. It's killer.
The same goes this year with Abert to Brophy. Brophy is better than Abert physically, but Abert is way more prepared mentally for this regional meet. Brophy is talented enough to make it in my opinion, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make the top 10 to be totally honest. It's the mindset and Abert has it this year.
^ O'hara used the same story when they lost states in 2012.
Delete^Yep. I thought the same thing when I read this.
DeleteI just read over my passage again, and I'm not sure where the interpretation comes in that I am giving excuses for poorer performances at states. I am giving Abert and the Kazanjians and Lindsey Rheiner excuses for running poorly at Regionals after strong states races, but I'm in no way excusing or story for performances at the state meet. I'm sorry my message was not clearer and was misconstrued in this manner.
Delete--ForrestCRN
It sounds like you're claiming Abert wasn't focused on winning states this year, that he has bigger ambitions and mental toughness will get him there. If that's the case, why did you pick him to win states? It also implies Brophy was lucky to win states because Abert wasn't peaking. That's the exactly what O'Hara claimed.
DeleteNo. What I'm saying in any race during this XC season that both Colin Abert and Jake Brophy were peaking in Jake Brophy would win 8/10 times. Jake Brophy will not be nearly as mentally prepared as Colin Abert for regionals, which is why Abert gets the nod. I severely under-estimated just how dominant Jake Brophy was going into the state meet. That that help?
Delete--ForrestCRN
There's a difference between nationals being a goal and nationals being ur only goal ... Forrest is speaking of the former in this instance and yes there is a difference ... Abert didn't adjust training nor is he going to make excuses for states, but he was also prepared for his season to go the extra month while Brophy may not have been this summer. That doesn't take away from Brophy's run at all.
ReplyDeleteAnd for the record Ohara backed up what they said at regionals and nationals, it just came at a cost
DeleteBut that's different ... Ohara said they were training through states (Chris Aldrich of Henderson said the same thing after he lost states to Dennin in 2007 it goes both ways people)
That's not what is happening with Abert. He didn't train through states he was just prepared to train the extra month after states and that means something
I believe if you are physically gifted ( like the aberts and brophys), train properly through regional and dont have an off day, there s a great chance of making it out through regionals. Brad miles goal and focus was to win states that year, then shifted his focus on regionals and did well.
ReplyDeleteI'm not buying this stuff at all. Anyone who would remotely consider late November races more important than states is a liar. And O'Hara in 2012 probably was so overconfident that they considered states a routine meet and greatly underestimated WCH. What a huge mistake that was.
ReplyDeleteO'Hara may have said that "excuse" in 2012 but remind me again of the teams that made NXN that year? OH, right, O'Hara. Beating Henderson at Regionals. Who did better at nationals that year also? OH, right, O'Hara... by a lot. They shouldn't have said anything, but they were right. Their goal was nationals, not states, and they did it and performed great.
ReplyDelete^ Nice try. States is the goal of every team. 1st at states is better than 5th at nationals every time. That OH team is remembered for one thing that year, and it's not nationals.
DeleteThat's is the biggest lie on this blog. Yes you remember them losing on the tie breaker and it being the second year in a row that it happened but fifth at nationals is an unbelievable accomplishment and what they are remembered for.
DeleteUnfortunately nationals isn't truly nationals since most of the top teams in the country don't bother moving on after their state championships. Travel costs and timing play a big role in whether to attempt to get to that invitational out west. What's remembered in PA circles are state championships and WCH and NA have a lot of them.
DeleteSorry to say this but most people don't remember 3rd, 4th, 5th, ad nauseum place finishers in States, Regionals or Nationals. I mean that is seriously ridiculous that they treasure their 5th place finish at Nationals that year over their loss at States. Not buying it.
Delete^It's a way for them to rationalize an embarrassing loss at States that year. I am still more impressed with a State win than a Nationals qualifier, and apparently so is O'Hara. Otherwise they would stop with that lame excuse.
DeleteI get that O'Hara may have lied about not wanting to win states, I am sure that was a goal for them. But maybe in July or whenever they started in the summer, they agreed as a team that they would go for nationals and not states and everyone bought in to that idea. If that is the case, than they did what they wanted. Maybe in O'Hara's mind nationals is better than states, and what O'Hara thinks is the only thing that matters. Lots of people think a state title is better than nationals (including me), but maybe not O'Hara.
DeleteOn the other hand, if when they lost, that was the excuse for losing, than that is pathetic, you underestimated henderson, got outkicked at the finish line and lost to Henderson. end of story, no excuses.
There is no way I will ever beleive that they didn't want states very badly, especially after being upset the year before by North Penn. They were winning everything that year, and had destroyed WCH at Belmont in September. But they still should have seen WCH coming. Overconfidence has done in many a good team. They weren't the first or the last.
DeleteHere's my take- O'Hara was shocked to not win States and to keep them together for Nationals the Coach gives them the pep talk about how they were built for Nationals, etc...and then to put a stamp on it he goes on his interview with that same spiel. So maybe it was more a mindgame to keep those guys from mentally collapsing. It did work since they were able to pull it together and get themselves to Nationals. But I'll never believe they weren't expecting a win at States and devastated to walk away with 2nd.
DeleteNah. I mean, it'd be nice if that were the case but I remember seeing the interviews and their JV afterwards. The were indeed shocked, but the built for nationals was an excuse to take the bite out of losing states.
Delete^ OH had a bad day, it's not like WCH never had a bad race.
Delete^^^^the belmost race would have been closer if hendersons 3rd or 4th wasnt dq'd. I think Ohara still would have won, but it would have been a lot closer and not a crushing defeat.
DeleteOH was very confident that year (cocky?). Their coaches took state victory for granted and should have had them peaking for that state meet, not nationals. But instead they were blowing out Delocs and PCL's for whatever reason and it caught up with them. It's a shame OH was a state champion level team for two straight years, I mean,they scored 69 points at the state meet and lost, that's like unbelievable.
DeleteIf they scored 69 points and lost which is unbelievable then the team that beat them must have been pretty good ... Ohara didn't blow it, Henderson won it ... Every jus calm down about this stuff man it was over 2 years ago there is more relevant stuff going on like regionals or even NCAAs
DeleteOH beat them at regionals, nationals, indoors and the national champion DMR so it's pretty clear.
DeleteBut I heard OH was really embarrassed over their 3rd place finish in the DMR at Penn Relays. Again, going into it they were over-hyped and I remember reading interviews about their dominance and all but definite win in the Inquirer that Friday and then seeing a victorious Russell and his teammates on the cover the next day.They definitely killed it indoors when they threw down some ridiculous pr's but that was it.
DeleteAgain, peaking problems.
DeleteTheir coaches are great but they never seem to have their timing quite right.
Penn Relays gold is as sweet as it gets.
DeleteYeah who needs a state championship when you can win a mid-April meet
Delete^ The WCH DMR took the state championship and penn relays, once again winning when it counts.
Delete^I was just trying to make the point that I'd value states over Penn Relays. States is the meet everyone trains for, this holds true for all 3 seasons.
Delete^and WCH won both!
DeleteA Penn Relays victory is a very close second to States.
DeleteThe indoor national championship is sweet, but again it's not really national since only mid-atlantic schools participate.
Penn is regional also on the HS level, especially in the DMR. It does carry a lot of weight in the track community, especially to Philadelphia Area schools like O'Hara and Henderson. I'm sure O'Hara would say Indoor Nationals was a bigger deal and Henderson would say Penn. O'Hara did run faster.
DeletePenn Relays is very big Internationally, mon.
DeleteMuch bigger stage/prestige than Indoor Nat's.
OH has had some successed, but nothing at the state level.
DeleteNo success at the state level.... They've been top 3 in xc 5 years in a row multiple individual medals had one of the lowest scores in state history they had 3 individual medalist last year indoor and I think was a top 2 team and have had many other individual medalist and relays medal... I wouldn't say no success just haven't been able to get over the hump at states for some reason
DeleteGet over the hump to win a state title*
DeleteThat's something that hate about this sport. Don't get me wrong I love this sport to death, but when people make excuses of not performing well when it really matters upsets me. I understand that maybe it was an off day but don't run your mouth by saying the infamous running excuse "oh, my legs were tired" or "I didn't get enough sleep", or something else idiotic. All you have to say is "I lost" or say nothing at all. You don't have to elaborate on it just accept what happened and move on.
ReplyDeleteAbert was focused on winning the coveted gold state medal based off his tweets. I would say being a state champion in a highly competitive field is better than running at nationals. Does anyone remember the time of Brent Kennedy at states for 2012. Or what he got at nationals? Very few people would probably raise their hands. Now does anyone remember the winning time of Tony Russell for the same year? Now more hands would up because he won States and broke the meet record. I have to say if Abert won states with the exact time as Brophy and qualified for nationals but ended up running 18th, I think he would be more proud of winning states then qualifying. He's going to be more well known for crushing the course record and beating his competition by a large margin then his 18th placement at nationals.
Winning states is better than racing at nationals, unless youre Grant Fischer who is focused on repeating again. Unless Abert becomes the flash and wins nationals, then losing states isn't a big deal.
DeleteNot a big deal...but you have Abert's Paul Short time as 15:54. That should be a 14 in the front. No question he will shine as the best PA finisher in the bunch.
ReplyDeletea discussion question, does someone like Seiger deserve a nod for nationals maybe? missed this list but the etrain blog has him attending the meet. And his team mate Wilkinson, cant be over looked either maybe not for a nationals spot but on the PA team or maybe even top 25, thoughts ?
ReplyDeleteHave they ever had to deal with a foot and a half of snow at Regionals before?
ReplyDeleteAre they able to clear enough of the trail to make it passable?