Updated Footlocker Northeast Regional Rankings 11/27

I'm not sure exactly what happened with this post, but I've having a very difficult time fixing it, so I apologize.
Footlocker Regionals – No Changes to most recent Speed Ratings Based on http://tullyrunners.com/index.htm Keep in mind that the PA runners raced the first weekend in November, while many of these Speed Ratings are from Mid- to Late November. This gives runners a chance to really improve and have it shown through performances. I’ve noticed most PA runners go up about 1 to 2 points in the SR from States of Regionals if they continue flourish in training. Ross Wilson last year is a great example of this.

CT - Alex Ostberg, 12 Darien                        200.68 201
NY - Mike Brannigan, SR Northport             196.87 197
PA - Jake Brophy, Jr Central Bucks East       195.00 195
NJ - Luke Petela SR Haddon Township         193.67 194
NJ - Shawn Hutchison SR Bishop Eustace    192.67 193
MD - Evan Woods, 12 Walt Whitman            189.63 190
NY - Benito Muniz SR Carmel                      189.60 190
MA - Quinn Cooney 12 Chelmsford              188.33 188
NJ - Dominick Munson, SR Timber Creek    188.33 188
CT - Ari Klau, SR Hall-CT                            188.00 188
PA - Sam Ritz, 12 Germantown Academy     187.91 188
PA - Colin Abert, Sr Easton Area                   187.33 187
PA - Casey Comber, Sr Hatboro Horsham     187.00 187
NJ - Matt Grossman, SO Millburn                 186.67 187
NY – Jack Jibb, 12 Monroe Woodbury          186.33 186
MA - Nick Carleo 12 Newburyport                186.10 186
MA - Lucas Taxter 12 Xaverian                     185.67 186
PA - Sebastian Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep         183.67 184
NJ - Aaron Barlev, SR Holmdel                     183.33 183
NH - Eli Moskowitz, SR Souhegan                183.00 183
PA - Dominic Hockenbury Lake-Lehman      182.67 183
PA - Paul Power, Sr Spring Ford                    180.67 181
PA - Griffin Mackey, So Sewickley                180.00 180
PA - Zach Seiger, Jr Red Land                        179.33 179
PA - Jack Di Cintio, Jr Wyomissing               178.33 178
PA - Daniel Green, Sr James Buchanan         178.00 178
PA - Kevin Lapsansky, Easton Area               177.33 177


Question Marks:

Jack Jibb – Second @ Paul Short (15:18 – SR of 187), 15:57 @ Shore Coaches (won his section), Won his Sectional Race, placed 82nd @ States, and 114th @ Feds in NY. Best SR is 193.00.

Edwin Rutto – Very up and down all year. Best race @ Brown Invitational with second place finish, but he also placed 3rd @ Manhattan. Did not race @ NJ MoC’s, but won the week before by over 20 seconds. Best SR is 193.78, but he also has SR’s of 189.18 and 191.93.

Michael Noonan – Placed 14th @ Manhattan when he beat out Corti and Marston (behind Ritz by one place), but placed 8th @ New England’s in a pretty slow time. Did run 4:17 as a sophomore. Best SR is 187.73

Colin Abert – Placed 1st @ Paul Short in a MR of 15:55 and a SR of 193.67, but had a tough state meet finish of 4th place in 14:47 (tied for 5th fastest time on course) Making Changes to create FL Regional Rankings Based on Tully System – The numbers at the end of their titles are the anticipated Speed Ratings from the Footlocker Regional Race.

1. CT - Alex Ostberg, SR Darien 200.90
Ostberg is going to win this race. Not much more to say about that.

2. PA - Jake Brophy, JR Central Bucks East 196.50 I’m starting to like the concept more and more of PA State winners (as juniors) making it to FL nationals. Brophy’s time of 15:24 is slowly starting to settle in. I’m going back on my earlier prediction of Abert beating him. I think he’s a lock at top 3 with Ostberg and Brannigan. Brannigan has been shakey this season and is on an off every meet. If he races poorly I have no doubt Brophy will take him down.

3. NJ - Luke Petela, SR Haddon Township 194.33
Petela has looked really fantastic the past two weekends in NJ coming up with strong wins back to back. He seems to be the top of his class in NJ other than maybe Edwin Rutto who did not race, but is signed up for FL. Either way though I think Petela will be the top NJ finisher and place 3rd overall.

4. PA - Colin Abert, SR Easton Area 193.67 I don’t know why, but I’ve got this strong gut feeling Abert will pull this one out for a top 5 finish. He was 13th last season and the 2nd returner. He’s been a stud this season and had a poor race at states for the first time in his life really going after a record. I think he bounces back and all of his season’s hard work pays of in a big way. I like his finishing speed and his strength in a big time race like this.

5. MA - Nick Carleo, SR Newburyport 193.00
Carleo has been flying slightly under the radar this season. He was sick as his state meet two weekends ago and won by 6 seconds by just racing very casually. He seems super fit and ready to go and I think he’ll do just that in a big way with a 5th place finish. I’d be shocked if he missed Nats.

6. NJ - Shawn Hutchison, SR Bishop Eustace Prep 192.00
Every year it seems as though New Jersey has some runner drop a bomb of MoC’s and they go on to make nationals. For the NJ and NY guys the Regional race is very much on a swing of upward momentum. Hutchinson has the momentum right now and I think he makes it.

7. NY - Mike Brannigan, SR Northport 191.87
I can’t believe I’m putting an 4:08/8:52 guy at 7th in the region, but Brannigan is so up and down. He is on every other race and frankly might not make it out of the region if he has a terrible day. I’m putting him 7th because I think he does well, but not fantastic and gets to nationals (where I believe he’ll finish top 10). That being said if he’s on he could really challenge Ostberg.

8. NY – Benito Muniz, SR Carmel 190.00
I’m not totally sure what to do with Muniz. It seems smart of him to go the FL route instead of the New York regional, but I think he is a strong enough runner to make it either way. 8th seems like the perfect spot for a very consistent runner like Muniz.

I think the top 8 guys listed above are all just about locks to make it to the national meet out of the Footlocker region. The ending here is where things will get very, very tricky. I am going to assume that Edwin Rutto is done for the season here. If he is healthy, then he is also a lock for the national meet, which gives us just one spot left. But for now we have two and I’ll explain who I’ve got, but again, it’s going to come down to a kick, heart, but ultimately, who is having the best day when it comes to regionals.

9. PA - Casey Comber, SR Hatboro Horsham 189.00

Casey Comber and Jake Brophy are absolute rivals. Comber took down Brophy last year at XC Leagues, but Brophy beat him at Districts and hasn’t looked back since. Comber is not afraid of a fast pace and is willing to push to the very end. He won’t let Brophy out of his sight and although he’ll fade in the last 800m Comber has the will and strength to make it to nationals.

10. CT - Ari Klau, SR Hall 189.00
We haven’t seen Klau race in a few weeks and he placed second to a very, very strong Ostberg at the New England championships. I think he steps it up with a pack of runners his level and grabs this final spot.

11. PA - Sam Ritz, SR Germantown Academy 188.67
Ritz’s best race of the season came at Manhattan where he placed 13th overall. He ran 4:11 as a sophomore, but has been slow to progress from there, but this XC season he’s looked strong and he just dropped a 9:10 on the track for 3200. If this race gets a little slow Ritz’s kick could bring him to Nat’s.

12. MD - Evan Woods, SR Walt Whitman 188.33
You probably think I’m crazy for putting Evan Woods down so low, but there is a reason for this. Historically Maryland runners do very poorly at the NE Regional. They run fantastic at the Nike Southeast however. I don’t know if it’s the temperature or what, but that’s what I’ve noticed. Woods has the talent to place in the top 6 or 7. Only reason he’s not on is history, and for that I apologize.

13. NJ - Dominick Munson, SR Timber Creek 188.00
Munson is another runner on the upswing from the NJ Meet of Champions. He might be able to sneak in, but I don’t think he has what it takes to make it in and will place ~15th.

14. MA - Quinn Cooney, SR Chelmsford 187.67
Much like Shawn Hutchinson Cooney is coming off of a very strong race where he won the MA Division I State Meet (Carleo is Division II). This momentum could help Cooney make it to the national meet, but he won on a final kick and I think it’ll be his best race of the season.

15. Dominic Hockenbury, JR Lake-Lehman 187.33
Hockenbury is a total stud from PA who does not get enough credit. He trained last season and this summer with Dominic Deluca who ran 8:21 for 3k at the Penn Relays and finished 4th @ Heps this year for Cornell (Also top Northeast Regional Freshman). Hockenbury solo’d an SR of 182.67 just to get on this list when he broke 16 minutes on a very hard states course in the ‘A’ race. Usually that’s an SR of 185 or higher, but due to the incredibly fast ‘AAA’ race lead by the stud Jake Brophy (2nd on this list). He had his best race of the season by far at Regionals last year and I think he does it again here.

16. NJ - Matt Grossman, SO Millburn 187.00
Grossman is a total stud. My goodness getting an SR of 187 as a sophomore is kinda ridiculous. If he continues to improve on this curve he could challenge Jake Brophy next season. I’m glad he’s racing this meet for the valuable experience, but unless he drops a bomb I think he misses out on nationals this season.
17. NY – Jack Jibb, SR Monroe Woodbury 186.33
18. MA - Lucas Taxter, SR Xaverian 185.67
19. NH - Eli Moskowitz, SR Souhegan 184.67
20. PA - Sebastian Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep 184.50

Thanks for Reading!

--ForrestCRN

P.S. My NXN full preview will be out tomorrow!