Nike Northeast Regional

I created an excel document with 150 runners in the Northeast Regional Race. I tried to place many of the top teams entering in, while include Christian Brothers Academy, Don Bosco, Cherry Hill East, South Brunswick, North Allegheny, Cardinal O’Hara, Conestoga, La Salle Academy, Ridgefield, and Northampton (to name a few). I added the top individuals in as well. This meet is super stacked, but every year some of the top teams around the Northeast just fall apart at this race. Don Bosco is definitely one of them (I’ll get into this more later). The top two teams automatically qualify. Then four teams are chosen based a claimed ‘variety of factors’, but almost always it comes down to how a team competes at regionals. Soiux Falls Lincoln High School was just ranked 16^th in the nation and fell to 25^th after missing an auto-Q by 6 points in the Heartland Region. They might get a bid. Saint Anthony’s (NY) is ranked 12^th in the country right now behind fellow NY squads Liverpool (US #7) and US #1 Fayetteville-Manlius. I think Saint Anthony is very likely to get a nationals bid.

Now looking at the Northeast we’ve got 5 very strong teams. 

La Salle Academy is ranked 8^th nationally, but frankly I think they’ve very overrated. They did not race nearly as well at regionals last season as most people expected, but they are returning Jack Salisbury who was a stud for them last year. He was their 5^th man at the New England Championships and I have him slotted at the #3 position for them this weekend.

Christian Brothers Academy (CBA) is ranked 13^th in the nation right now (down from 12^th). These guys have a ridiculous pack 2-7 and an awesome front runner in Blaise Ferro. He had a very poor race at the NJ Meet of Champions, but I think he’ll bounce back in a big way and I have him placing 4^th overall. You can guarantee CBA will have 6, if not 7 runner’s, right around La Salle’s 5^th and ahead of most other teams 4^th guys. They’re a pack running team and they do it so well.

Don Bosco is not ranked nationally, but they tied CBA at their group championship meet when Patrick Sullivan had an amazing race. At MoC’s he fell off a bit, but Zach Weland stepped up for them. If their top 3 of Sullivan, Weland, and Rosas (only a soph) all can place within the top 25 these guys could very well make nationals. 

North Allegheny absolutely ran away with the PA state title. They have developed a strong 4-5 and I think Stupak’s big improvements will continue. They’ve got the best 1-2 punch in the region and through 3 runners they’ve got the best score on my list. It will depend on how low their 4-5 can go, but honestly I think they can compete with any of these teams. They beat Henderson’s state team average by 4 seconds. I can’t believe they’re not ranked nationally and honestly I think that really hurts them. 

South Brunswick reminds me so much of North Allegheny. They just placed second to CBA at the Meet of Champions. They’ve got a great 1-2 punch in Nicholas Neville and Matthew Zamorski along with a strong #3 in Kyle McCann. I’ve got the two separated by just 5 points right now and it’s going to come down to their 4/5 runners and how many guys they can all beat. Seel and McCann will be scrapping as well for points in their battle as a top #3 runner against CBA’s Sean Martinek and Jack Salisbury of LaSalle. 

What will help these Northeast teams the most is that Ridgefield, Don Bosco, North Allegheny were all ranked within the top 25 in the pre-season polls by Saucony, but in the end it will come down to just how close either NA or Don Bosco can get to La Salle and CBA in order to qualify. If they are within 20 points I think they’ll get a nod, unless there are much closer results across the nation.

All of this being said here is what I have in terms of qualifying

Individuals:

1. Nikhil Pulimood (NJ) W.W.P.S. – Pulimood is coming off of a huge win at the NJ Meet of Champions and I think he continues this trend into the regional meet. The top 6 guys are almost interchangeable but because of Pulimood’s recent win in such a strong SR I’ve got him 1^st on this list.

2. Kevin James (PA) O’Hara – Kevin James has everything it takes to make this national meet. He made it last season and no way he will miss it this year. James can move with a fast pace, run hills, and can finish with the best of them and frankly if the pace gets a bit slow this 3:03 1200m man (9:03 3200) could bring home the victory to PA for the 3^rd straight year.

3. Andrew Marston (PA) Irish (Conestoga) – Marston is an XC stud. He has taken down Bryce Millar this season and despite a ‘poor’ race at Manhattan he still placed in the top 20. His 3^rd place finish at the state meet in 15:40 shows he can run hills with the best of them. Marston doesn’t have the best finishing speed, but he held on strong to James at the end of the PA state meet and I think he runs quickly here and gets the 3^rd individual qualifying spot.

4. Blaise Ferro (NJ) CBA – Ferro knows how to get it done at the regional meet. Sorry, let me rephrase that, CBA knows how to get it down at the regional meet. Ferro placed 14^th as a sophomore and he was the 6^th returner going in. Molino and Hoey are out of the race and he’s beating Corti on multiple occasions this season. Ferro steps up for his team and gets the job done to help CBA win this meet.

5. Craig Corti (NJ) Wallkill – Corti placed 9^th overall last season and missed making nationals by just two spots. He ran 15:40 at his group meet (same time Pulimood ran to win MoC’s). Corti looked a bit beat up at the end of the meet, but I think he bounces back. He has historically run well at this meet and it must have been on his radar to make nationals ever since last season’s miss. I think he grabs the 4^th Individual spot and punches his ticket to nationals. 

6. Matt Mcgoey (PA) NA – North Allegheny has only attended the regional meet twice. Both times they headed to nationals. Coach Neff does not mess around with this meet and they’ll show up ready to roll. Mcgoey and Wharrey will lead the charge for this squad. McGoey runs very well in the second half of races, which will set him up very well to run the Bowdoin course. If NA does not get to nationals I believe Mcgoey will be the 5^th and final individual to make it to nationals. 

7. Leland Jones (NJ) Summit – Not to be confused with the Summit squad from Oregon, Leland Jones is from NJ and he just had by far the best race of his season at the MoC. It’s all about momentum going into these regional meets as I’ve said 100 times before and Jones has got it. He will be on the outside looking in and hoping that NA gets a team bid so he can attend nationals as an individual. He might however be the first one out.

8. Sam Webb (PA) UVA – Webb is back after breaking his leg halfway through this meet last year and having to drop out. I’m surprised he is coming here instead of Footlocker, but I think he wants redemption. Knowing Webb’s determination he wants to make nationals and reverse his bad luck. That being said I think Webb just misses out. He’ll be working hard up front and he’s got a strong finish, but I’m not sure if everything will come together. He was right with James and Marston with about 150m to go, but he fell back around 7 seconds in that time. If everything goes right he could make it in, and he’ll be in striking distance with 200m to go. I have no doubt of this.

9. Aaron Groff (NJ) CHE – Groff is a total stud junior. He really impressed me during his sophomore year and he’s really shown it was no fluke this season. His team ran very well at the MoC and his momentum should carry him into a top 10 finish this season, which will set him up very well to make nationals next season (I think he’ll be a lock as a senior).

10. Hunter Wharrey (PA) NA – NA is going to need a big meet out of Wharrey and I think there is no question that we will see that from him. Wharrey has been just a few seconds back of Mcgoey all season long and they’re just such a great 1-2 punch. No question in my mind that he places within the top 15 runners. 

Team Places: I am going to add points onto this, but again I want to stress how many runners and team do not race well at regionals. Typically the scores of the top 2-4 teams are much lower than I will present here, but this is just based on my rankings. I want to stress that I entered each team and individual down a line on an excel document and then hit order by number (the Speed Ratings) and this is what came out. Nothing has been altered or changed after I saw the results, but frankly I think they make a lot of sense. 

1. Christian Brothers Academy – 160 Points – CBA knows how to get the job done at regionals. They’re 2-7 pack is unreal and I think Ferro has a bounce back race to help lead them to victory. Even if Ferro has an off day I do not believe they will fall lower than 2^nd place and should get an auto-Q.

2. La Salle Academy – 184 points – La Salle has some awesome pack running as well, but they have not raced well at regionals before, nor have they made the national meet. Plus they’ve got a very young team. I would not be surprised if they faltered. That being said their #6 runner is going to be right with Stupak and Budha (NA and SB’s 4^th runners), which is pretty crazy. If they place 3^rd in this meet I think they’ll go to nationals, but that being said I think they’ll probably score about 15 to 20 points behind CBA and they’re realistically top 15 team in the nation, not a top 10 team.

3. North Allegheny – 187 points – I gave everyone on NA’s squad a 1 to 2 point SR boost since they last raced a month ago compared to everyone else on this list. I think they’re a top 20 team in the nation no questions asked and could sneak into the top 15 after this meet. I think they’re very underrated. Do I think NA will get within 3 points of La Salle, probably not, but I would not be surprised to see them within 10 to 15 points. All of this being said I’d give NA a 50% chance of making the national meet. Remember: North Allegheny has attended Regionals twice. North Allegheny has qualified for Nationals twice.

4. South Brunswick – 192 points – This is where things will get tricky. If these top 4 (5) teams are really within 20 to 25 points of each other I’m not sure what they’ll do. I’d be totally shocked if they took 2 teams on bids, so I think South Brunswick misses out. Now, I know that I’m bias in putting NA in front of them. NA hasn’t raced in a month, while South Brunswick is on a big upswing from a second place finish at the NJ MoC’s. It’s going to be really, really close.

5. Don Bosco – 197 points – To be frank I think I’m doing Don Bosco a favor here. I’ve placed them scoring 17, 29, and 31 points for their top 3 runners. If all three guys have a good day that would tie them with La Salle (I’m thinking 17, 20, and 25) and they would miss nationals on the 6^th man, but would almost be guaranteed a bid. This being said Bosco just ran very poorly at the Meet of Champions and very rarely have I seen them perform well at this regional meet. History is important to me and that’s why NA gets the nod and SB + Bosco miss.

--ForrestCRN