State Meet Reactions
I have so much to say and Jarrett and I have talked about
this quite a bit, so I’m just going to post a few things, but more will come
soon. Not sure how many points I’ll make, but let’s roll with this
I might use the words wow or that’s insane or crazy or I’m
blow away or shocked ect, because well, that’s just how the state meet went.
Also, excited to say that I PR’d today by 14 seconds during
a cold, rainy, and windy day, in no man’s land.
1.
Brian Arita: I’ve got to give you the first
point my man. It’s been amazing watching you grow so much over the past four
years and you’ve been incredible. Your hard work and dedication to the sport of
XC has kept me excited to run over the past few years. I remember when he was a
wide eyed freshman with no idea what was happening around him to a sophomore
who had hopes of medaling at states his senior year. After a strong District
performance he ran a strong race to finish 21st and got a medal. I’m
more proud about him medaling than I was watching Ross break that state meet
record.
2.
Juniors Impressed: Well obviously Jake Brophy
running an absolutely killer race in 15:24. Honestly the thought of someone
breaking 5 minute pace at Hershey brings one thing to my mind: Protégé. I’m not
sure if that’s what Jake Brophy is, but he’s really, really close. He just
keeps making massive jumps in his training without looking back at all and he’s
peaking beautifully. I hope he decides to run a regional race, because he’d win
NXN and take second at FL Regionals pretty handily. I want to see him race
Ostberg. After him though Sappey was the second junior in 10th! Oh boy
was I wrong about him. And I’ll talk more about his team later. Seiger placed
14th as I should have expected since he takes after Gebhart (but
hopefully won’t follow that trend), Milligan with a big race for 16th
showing his District title was no joke and Susalla kept rolling. Morro proved
me wrong big time with a 22nd place finish along with Mike Kolor who
will run 4:14 or faster for the 16 this season, no question in my mind after
his huge XC break out the past two races. He’s looking very similar to Van
Kooten as a junior.
3.
Sophomore Studs: Nathan Henderson placing 13th…
wow. And Ryan James was 15th. Very strong performances from both
runners in 16:11 and 16:15 a piece, but how about Griffin Mackey running 16:09
to place 3rd in A!!! That’s huge for him and he’s the top sophomore
in the state now. After a tough middle season where he ran a lot of
invitationals everything paid off for him.
4.
West Chester Henderson: It’s a shame Gordy
Barchet fell during the first Mile. Knapp ran quite well, Smucker medalled as a
… FRESHMAN?!? Did I hear that right? And during the fastest year for medalist’
we’ve seen. My goodness. Will Swart was solidly behind him in 18th.
Put Barchet in that mix between 15-20 (team points) and Henderson places second
to NA and beats out Conestoga by a couple points. Wow, just wow. Smucker is
scaring me right now. Brophy was 30th as a freshman. I didn’t think
we’d see another freshman medalist, but let’s hope Smucker continues to improve
under Kelly’s system. Ben Berkman running 17:32 is awesome as well. Major props
to him. This team will be back next season, no question.
5.
Step Up Seniors!: Many of these young men have
been in the spot light for 2 to 3 years now, if not 4 and they just seemed to
be waiting to get the chance to shine and none of them backed down. Kevin James
taking second in 15:38, Marston in 15:40, McGoey in 15:47, Abert in 15:47,
Comber in 16:47, and Webb in 15:49 (apparently was top 3 with 150 to go). Look
at that! We had 3 guys break the state record and another 4 break into the top
3 (or tie). Incredible job to all of these runners to truly stepping up to each
other’s challenges and not backing down.
6.
The tough days: There will always be people who
have a tough day at states despite a strong season. This is dedicated to all of
you: (AAA) -- Aaron Gebhart (54), Jason Krist (101), Andrew Hanna (91), Ian
Baun (227), and Gordy Barchet (239). (AA) – Noah Smith (24), Aaron Benka (32),
Nathan Mrdjenovich (55), Bo Dinger (64), Ryan Budnik (66), Ryan Burke (69).
Honestly not sure about the ‘A’ guys who had poor races, but the NEB guys had a
tough day overall. Hershey is brutal and sadly not everyone can have a great
day and get chocolate too. Congratulation on great seasons though to everyone.
7.
Lastly: Just wanted another shout out to
everyone who took on Hershey today and everyone who put everything into their
races these past few weeks, especially in the post-season. The pressure is immense
and it’s a great opportunity to try and push yourself to the limits. Sometimes
it goes well and other times it doesn’t. That’s what this sport is all about:
toughness and grinding. Pat all of yourselves on the back for being XC runners.
You are all top notch characters and being able to push your body and mind to
the limits we do is something very few people will ever do. You are all tough.
You all strong. You are PAXC.
That’s all for Now Folks!
-- ForrestCRN
P.S. Please Keep the comments nice! I will be out watching my brothers on the Soccer Team at 6pm and my brothers on the Hockey team compete right afterwards at 9pm. I will not have time to edit comments until tomorrow morning most likely. Please, please be respectful.
Congratulations on your PR, man. That's such a high.
ReplyDeleteYeah, great meet today - didn't expect to see it go out so fast but some amazing performances. DWest looks like they could really contend next year. Give Ohara 2 years and Henderson? Depends what else is in the pipeline.
Heard Barchet did not fall, just sick maybe.
Not a good idea to tell people to keep the comments nice, its like telling a 4 year old to not do something, they will do it just because you said not to.
ReplyDeleteI think Brophy will win foot locker nationals if he chooses to do so, it takes guts to win that race and you know he has plenty if he ran 15:24 at hershey. He will be the male tessa barret, set the cr and then kill it at nationals/regionals.
-2t5
Kevin James is this years Ross Wilson, best senior in PA to as of yet not take individual state gold. - JEB
ReplyDeleteRemember last year's Ross Wilson had his moment to shine in a race with a phenomenal finish. Hang in there James.
DeleteJames and Brophy both made a huge move crossing the bridge the second time and dropped everyone then I guess Brophy just broke James really bad towards the end.... Kids a beast
ReplyDeleteI was shocked when I saw Brophy come through in 15:24. It took me a few minutes to realize what happened. Today the conditions were absolutely perfect, and that's what fueled all of the incredible times that we saw, but Brophy was just ridiculous. He hadn't run as fast as Russell in any race before this, yet he demolished his CR by 21 seconds! I hate to say this, but I can't help but question whether or not this was clean. Brophy ran 40-50 seconds slower at Hershey than he did at Lehigh for the past two years, and now he drops only 13??? D1 Champs was a slow day this year and States was a really fast day, but still! Also, he has said himself that he's not great on hills, and he only ran 16:01 at Foundation this year! I'd like to believe he's that good, but given the increasing prevalence of performance enhancing agents and this huge inconsistency in his race efficiencies, I'm somewhat doubtful that this was an honest race. I find all of the other performances to be perfectly believable and within at least a ballpark range of what myself and others predicted, but I think that if earlier this week someone had said that ANYONE would run 15:24 today they may have been laughed at. What do you guys think? Is this a legit performance? Did you expect Brophy or anyone else to run anywhere near this even in optimal conditions like today's? If this was a legitimate race I feel terrible about putting out accusations like this, but I can't help but be a little suspicious.
ReplyDeleteI've seen nothing from Brophy to suggest he's 21 seconds better than Russell was as a junior, until today. The entire race was pretty fast. I know conditions were good, but they were no better than in 2012. With XC you can never tell for sure if there's been variations to the course but I agree the times are a bit surprising, even shocking in the top 10. 15:24 on Hershey is like 14:39 on Lehigh. I don't get it.
Delete14:39 5K on Lehigh is like a 13:54 5K on a track, that'll get you ranked nationally at the college level.
DeleteI hate the fact that when someone kills it, they are always questioned because of the existence of ped's. The thing is, a lot of the claims are actually right, barry bonds, mark mcguire, lance armstrong, and the list goes on. All of these people were the best all time in their sport (at the time they competed) and were on ped's. Not saying that he is definitley on it but i can see the op's point. I wouldn't be for testing him and only him, if they were to test, than anyone in hs sports should be tested.
DeleteA.) Brophy had a big soph-to-junior year jump. These happen a lot, e.g. Ross Wilson.
DeleteB.) He cruised in his early meets to easy victories, and was still winning by good margins.
C.) At Briarwood, he lost only to a stud of comparable talent, Jaxson Hoey-- a 9:05 man. Brophy went 15:39, which is faster than Russell went as a junior there-- EXCEPT the course Brophy ran on is commonly accepted as being longer than the one Russell ran on, AND it was rainy and cold. Thus his time is far more impressive than Russell's.
D.)At foundation, He lost to Paul Power, who had a legendary race (but peaked to early), and Kevin James, who is a 9:03 stud. Can we allow Brophy a bad race?Or can we assume that he peaks really well, which he historically does, and that the competition he faced was quality? Also, early season times are generally slower.
E.) At SOL's Brophy did not wholly take the lead until 200 to go. Comber dictated the pace, and Brophy outkicked him. Thus, we cannot judge if Brophy fully ran to potential.
F.) At Districts, it was windy, the pace was somewhat slow, and again Brophy sat and kicked. The fact that he ran slower than he did a week prior shows he clearly did not run as fast as his fitness could allow -- and he still ran the same time as junior Russell.
G.) Today is the day people train for. He peaked at this meet. He had those guys around him, who also were in tip-top shape. Conditions were great.
Please, don't call someone's performance illegitimate, unless you have evidence (other than your own disbelief) to suggest so. It was a crazy, awesome, unforgettable performance; if anything is to take away from that, let it be facts, not conjecture.
In the 6 years since 2008 when states changed to the poop out course, there have been 11 runners under 16:00. There have been 3 under 15:50. Today there were 7 under 15:50.
DeleteThe only runner with the 3200 chops to approach Russell's 15:45 record was James. Based on today, Wilson's 3200 record should be destroyed in outdoor, that top 5 should be able to go 8:40's or better.
^ based on today, about 8:38 for 3200, 4:03 for 1600 would be equivalent performances. That is big time.
DeleteI, the poster of the 3rd reply hopefully didn't seem like i was saying brophy used ped's. I think he is not, I was just playing devils advocate and trying to look at both sides of the story. Because there is a chance he did, but i think there is an infinitely larger chamce he didn't. Think of it as you are in sandy cheek's air dome (if you dont get this reference than you need to reexamine your life) and there is one fly flying around, then you hold your hand out and close it, the chances that you catch the fly are the chances that brophy took ped's, extremely unlikely, but you cant mathematically rule out the chance that he did. Why not him?
Delete^ you also can't mathematically rule out that he's from another dimension and used a time machine to give himself an edge. Not peds but the PIAA would probably rule out using a time machine too.
Delete^You are right, but my point was that it is extremely unlikely, but still possible. I would say the odds of him taking ped's is much larger than that of him being from a different dimension.
Deletealright Scott Burns chill out. How hard is it to believe that a kid ran well on the day of his most important race ever. You should fell bad about yourself for suggesting that. He's been working hard since freshman year to accomplish this, and now that he has, some jerk is accusing him of cheating.
Delete^Alright dude, if you even read what I was saying you could clearly see i think he is clean, I also stated I was playing devils advocate to try and see the other side of the argument that the op made, it is always fair to hear both sides of an argument, no matter how ridiculous.
DeleteOk, there is only one way to prove it or not, one of us will have to get a girl to try and get with brophy and tell us if he has a shriveled penis, if he does, he is taking ped's, if not than he's clean, if anyone disagrees, Reply "I" to this comment.
Delete^Note, this guy did not deny being Scott Burns.
DeleteAlso you guys are accusing a high school XC runner of taking peds, what are you doing with your life?
No one is, the op was and then no one else agreed with him.
DeleteI feel like I owe Forrest and Etrain an explanation of how my predictions went so awry, and maybe I’ll put that together tomorrow. But this PEDS talk is a bit distressing, it’s like it’s throwing bad shadow over a great day.
DeleteXC predictions are very difficult since courses are so different and weather is always a big factor. I’ve found the toughest part is trying to find a conversion factor from one course to another. For example, Lehigh to Hershey is typically 40 -50 seconds slower, 40 for those sub 16 – 16:30, closer to 50 for those around 17. But it’s just a guess. Weather, course adjustments, level of competition can all impact times. And then there are always guys who come up big or have a rough day and ruin predictions.
My view is D1 at Lehigh this year ran a little slower than the last two years, maybe 5 – 10 seconds. Why? Wind, mud, thinner competition than 2012/2013? Maybe, but for some reason it was definitely a little slower than most expected. Yet Brophy won in 15:11, the same time Russell ran in 2012.
Today Parkview seemed to run about 15-20 seconds faster than predictions. Why? I don't know. Weather? Abert taking it out hard? Modest course changes? Who the heck knows. But if Lehigh was a little slower than 2012 and Hershey was a little faster, then Brophy’s time is still surprising, but maybe not as shocking.
Brophy breaking out is no different than Russell in 2012, Hoey last year, Magaha in 2010, etc. Brophy has been on the scene since he was a freshman. He may be what Forrest said, a prodigy. Maybe he had a huge breakthrough run, which is common junior year when many get to another level. Or maybe he just ran out of his mind one time, like Belfatto’s 4:11 anchor on OH’s national champion DMR last year. My guess is this guy’s time was outstanding based on whatever conditions happened to be in play today, his raw talent, and what pretty much what all XC guys have, strong work ethic. Time will tell, and I think he’ll be putting up some big times in the future that will validate today. But this speculation of artificial help is incredibly unfair to a guy who should be enjoying an incredible day without that kind of tarnish.
- RJJL
RJJL should have his own blog - PA Don't Play - R.E.L.A.X.
DeleteAs usual, a sound, sensible summarization of the days events.
By the way, why did you hold off your predictions until Friday evening? Did you know someone on WCH wasn't 100%?
I hope people realize that I (the guy whose OP had all the letters) was stating that Brophy was definitely not on PEDs/ the course wasn't short, and that it's totally plausible that he ran this fast.
DeleteWhich guy is Scott Burns? Will people stop accusing a kid of PEDs just because they're jealous? Will people stop cursing and using racial profanity?
DeleteXC Time Machine - Starring Jake Brophy
Delete^^Nobody is scott burns, no one besides the OP of the whole comment thing is saying he was on PED's and unfortunately you cant stop that word from being used.
Delete^That's exactly what someone would say if they were Scott Burns
DeleteLeave Burns alone. He is amazing <3!!
DeleteHow would you know what scott burns says unless you are Scott Burns?
DeleteThat's deep, man.
DeleteThere needs to be like button for comments.
DeleteI have waited long enough, I was the poster of the comment about the shriveled penis. Now that no one opposes this idea, does anyone know any hoes from cbeast?
DeleteI heard that brophy is so burnt out, his coach bribes him with fancy dinners to keep him on the team
DeleteHeck, a wawa sizzli would do it for me.
Delete^^^^ Leave Mr. Burns alone. The Simpsons rule yo.
DeleteBrophy sat and kicked at SOL's and districts, did he not? He didn't take the lead in either until the last 200.
ReplyDeleteAt regular season meets he was destroying kids effortlessly.
I think he's legit. I think it's just that his strategy relies on having good guys around to push him (and then he outkicks them) so having Abert take it out fast and James making the big moves was to hos benefit.
What about Briarwood? He didn't out kick anyone there. Hoey outkicked him.
DeleteThat was in early September... Brophy has peaked perfectly every year
DeleteThis was a great race. You had 6 guys in the lead pack who were hammering. There was always someone up top pushing the pace: Abert, then Marston and finally James made a big move to break up the pack. Unfortunately for him, Brophy hung and then dropped his own bomb. Brophy will be in the top 3 at FLNE and then top 15 at Nationals. James will be All-american at NXN. Marston will be in the mix at NXN for one of the AA spots. Also, Molino. Let's hope those guys run the 3200 at Henderson on the 13th. We could see 7-8 under 9:10. Also, great job by NA. They could be top 10 at NXN. It should be a fun post-season for PA.
DeleteThe girls in PA are also ready to roll. We could have 2 teams and 4 individuals advance.
^Now this sounds like the real Coach Kelly. He's always hustling something, so I guess now it's another 2 miler on Henderson's track.
DeleteThe course was shorter, they ran the Foundation layout.
DeleteStop with that stupidness ^
DeleteA lot of trolls on this board trying to stir the pot ^^
DeleteThe foundation layout and states layout are the same.
Deleteunbelievable that anybody would accuse an innocent kid of something like that. the kid is a freak of nature who works hard, runs tough, and does things right. His integrity shouldn't be questioned based upon success, he should be praised.
ReplyDeleteWhile I understand why someone would be willing to question the time today, I would seriously doubt any type of PED. As people have said, he has not been trying to blow away competition in these earlier meets and today was his day to go and do that, so comparing his times to earlier this year is not a good way to check for that. Also, there has never been any other suspicion about him, so its cruel to think that just when someone wins, they should be checked for PEDs.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, I think PA is finally starting to understand how good of an XC state it is. Only a few years ago, we were incredibly impressed when McGovern, Grossman, and Piccirillo set the girls record in 18:32, 18:30 and 18:29 (times are backwards of who they relate to). Now, girls are consistently running sub 18 and are beginning to really challenge 17:30. On the male side, we used to think that 16 was a magic barrier at Parkview, where only 3-5 men per year could break it. With Russell, James, Molino and Brophy (among others) the state is realizing that it can go after the 5 min/mile barrier. While Parkview is a tough course, I am beginning to realize that PA had placed it on a pedestal and created imaginary time barriers that we thought could not be broken. Now, PA is taking those barriers down and putting the state back into national relevance on the XC scene. Can't wait to see the runners go after NXN and FL. Should see Abert, Brophy, COH, Conestoga, Malvern, Molino, Hockenbury, Schwartz, Clahane, Sheva, Davison, COH girls, Unionville, and Pennsbury moving on at least. Can't wait to have PA on everyone's radar.
I called that Abert would have a bad day, and that Brophy or James would win it all.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't believe it check under the District 1 Thoughts -- ForrestCRN comments. I called it
The internet has led to the widespread dissemination of training information. It's the reason 16-18 kids broke 9 at the Arcadia Invite in 2013 (i think). It's the reason 3 kids broke it at our state meet. We're in a running renaissance, and Brophy is a part of it.
ReplyDeleteThats a really good point, i think we will start to see more faster times because the more good training information, the more coaches it reaches, and the more kids it reaches, the kids with the greatest potential will get better training and drop better times
DeleteBullcrud, today 7 go under 15:50 when is 6 years only 3 had ever done it before? Something doesn't smell right.
Delete^So you are saying that all those kods took ped's?
DeleteWouldn't people notice that the course is short and say something? Or did the Pennsylvania Department of Health start putting EPO in the public water supply and not telling us?
Deletethey're not*
DeleteNo way the course was shorter than before, and the conditions were not exactly perfect. I think the main key was the number of guys who had a chance to win and took it out fast.
Deletetwin valley coach is firing shots at dtw coach! damn
ReplyDeleteGuys, everyone needs to stop making something out of nothing. People are finding the right ways to run this hershey course, and it was great conditions. I happen to know brophy just a little bit, and he is a nice, humble, innocent, kid. If you want it as bad as he does, you'll be that good. As for the rest of the times, like I said, great conditions, and if the leaders will take it out fast, then times will be fast, simple as that.
ReplyDeleteSo can you tell me what ped's he uses?
DeleteWhat about Winchester Thurston State Championship Win? Impressive and surprising win.
ReplyDeleteFor those that barely missed a medal today, this was the hardest state meet to medal in a long time. The state improved vastly over where it was last year.
ReplyDeleteForrest PR'd by 14 seconds on a cold, rainy, windy day. He must be on PED's
ReplyDeletemaybe Forrest is Brophy's supplier!!!
Delete#conspiracy#RJJLisCoachKelly
^yo chill
DeleteWhat happened to Abert?
ReplyDeleteHe ran great, pr'd and medaled at states yet again.
DeleteThanks for acknowledging those who had bad races. Everyone has a bad race, its just extra unfortunate when it happens at States
ReplyDeleteAlright, I think I'm pretty much done patting myself on the back for being a xc runner. Thanks for that suggestion Forrest. I now feel special.
ReplyDeleteAs for ped talk. ..really? Again? It's pretty lame that the only way you can accept a superior performance is throw shade on Brophy's win. I'd like to know who all these kids and their dealers are. The whole thing is absurd.
Also, sorry about u Pou guys than ran like crap. It happens. Get over it.
If you even read the string of replies to that comment, you would know that one person (the OP) said that he thought brophy was on ped's, then the rest of the replies were all against it, so it was one bad apple in the whole bunch.
DeleteYou mean like the whole thread?
DeleteAin't nobody got time for that. Plus posts keep disappearing - makes it hard to keep up.
Whats the point of reading the blog if you dont actually read it?
DeleteI don't read all the comments. I scan through them. Especially when they become moronic high school freshman fuckery.
DeleteEtrain has some quality analysis up on his site, though I haven't seen it yet.
ReplyDelete- Don
Still waiting for kelly to post those d1 jv district results on his website...
ReplyDeletePT is using state coverage to beg for customers. I did not renew my PT subscription due to their vindictive attitude towards Etrain and Forrest. I'm finding results easily directly from the timing companies. I like what PT does, their coverage it very good and I thought the $50 per year was worth it. But the entire b.s. of banning bloggers rubs me wrong. If they lift the ban and apologize, I'd go back. Otherwise I'll just get along without them.
ReplyDeleteAnd everybody said in the summer that this year was going to be slower than more recent yeats
ReplyDelete