Sorry I’m a bit late to the prediction party, things have
been kind of hectic since it’s the week of ACC championships. Anyway I feel
like a lot of the individual predictions have been covered very well by Evan
and Forrest, and I don’t have much to add to their great work other than a few
minor moves based on my way of looking at the results we’ve seen so far. So I
included my top 10 individuals just to put them out there, but I’ll be looking
more at the top 5 teams.
Quick discussion about the polls. Thanks to everyone who has
participated, it’s been very interesting. A majority of people seem to agree
with our trio of writers, that Colin Abert is the clear favorite to win. Will
we see a new course record though? I just cannot stop thinking about that 14:55
Abert put out at Paul Short. That’s four seconds faster than Russell, three
weeks earlier in the season. And bear in mind that 15:45 was Russell’s junior
year time, he did 14:59 his senior year at Districts and then cruised to a
15:49 at States. Since I think that Russell his senior year could have done at
least 15:40 at Hershey if he went after it, and I think that Abert at this
point is at least be as good as Russell if not better, I think the course
record is Abert’s for the taking. If you haven’t voted, don’t take this as a
mandate to go and hit yes on the course record poll, that’s just my thought
process, and I appreciate seeing what other people think.
My quick top 10:
1.
Colin Abert
2.
Kevin James
3.
Jake Brophy
4.
Andrew Marston
5.
Paul Power
6.
Casey Comber
7.
Matt McGoey
8.
Aaron Gebhart
9.
Sam Webb
10.
Zach Seiger
Team Predictions:
1.
North Allegheny
They’ve had the 1-2 combo all season in
McGoey and Wharrey, but 3-5 has really done a good job coming along and closing
up the spread. I certainly don’t think they’re a lock to win it, but they look
like the most complete of the teams competing for the title.
2.
LaSalle
Tight pack. That’s what has driven this
team and what gave them the win in District 12. Cardinal O’Hara actually put
three in front of their one, but a 21 second spread can be formidable,
especially in a race like States.
3.
Cardinal O’Hara
They’ve looked pretty good this year and
while they did get beat by LaSalle, I still think they’ve got a good five who
will do well for them.
4.
WC Henderson
You might raise your eyebrows at this pick,
but I’m believing in them. Honestly, I don’t know how they’re going to beat
Conestoga, but I didn’t see any way they would take second at Districts, let
alone by under 10 points, and they did just that. If you want some more
analysis, a tight 2-4 who are running well will be dangerous and I don’t think
they’re 5th will be as bad as you might initially think. Plus they’re
Henderson so they’ll be ready for this course and this race.
5.
Conestoga
I wouldn’t say I’m expecting a bad day from
them. But I agree with Forrest’s gist, that there just so happen to be four
teams I think will be better. We haven’t seen a meet where they’ve put it all
together and had everyone run well, which could show potential or be a warning.
6.
Mount Lebanon
7.
Easton
8.
Hempfield
9.
Central Bucks West
10.
Cumberland Valley
11.
Council Rock North
12.
Downingtown West
13.
State College
14.
Carlisle
Good luck to everyone who's racing on Saturday! I hope everyone does well, this is what you've been working hard towards, so put it all out there and PA Don't Play.
-Cummings
I love these predictions except I would flip flop power and marston, and I think McGoey is a bit to high. I'm aslo a big fan of Webb, so I want to put him in the top 10 but i just don't see him beating some of these guys. Maybe he'll throw down a big performance like he did on the track.I also think if anyone will end up beating Abert, which is highly unlikely, it will be Power. He has the fastest time on the course out of anyone in the race and thrives more on the hills than he does on flat courses like Lehigh. But honestly Abert has just been a monster all season and seems to be on a different level from anyone else in this races.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your predictions more than I agree with Forrest's. I do think however, you are over-compensating for your district predictions by placing Henderson too high on this list. I'd drop them to 6th overall, with Conestoga at 3rd, O'Hara-4th, and DWest or Mt. Lebo 5th.
ReplyDeleteAbert for the win, Brophy 2nd. I think James will be lucky to crack top 6.
If Forrest can overrate CRN it's ok for you to underrate WCH. You don't have to make up for that Districts pick debacle, everyone knows WCE and WCH are rivals.
ReplyDeletehonestly, the wce v. wch rivalry isn't a harsh one or even that big, yes both teams want to win but after the elbowing incident in 2011, there really hasn't been a great rivalry, plus I have seen wce and wch kids talking at meets and some are actually friends because they live so close.
DeleteI think Chris is over compensating henderson a little bit because of the crap he took for not having them make states, but honestly you can't complain because there is no 100% clear cut favorite to win this year, so predictions will be all over the place, so if henderson has a good day they could be 4th or 3rd but they could have a good day and be 7th or 8th. Everyhting depends on personal opinion and out of the writers of this blog Chris would know the most about the Chesmont.
WCE doesn't like Henderson as a team, but on the individual level quite a few are friendly with eachother. I wouldn't consider it a rivalry because Henderson dominates
DeleteWCE wishes they were a rival but DWEST appears to be more the cross town rival. They did steal the Chesmonts championship from WCH afterall. When is the last time WCH lost that anyway?
DeleteI think DWEST gets them back at States. Sappy has a great race, holding off Knapp. State course favors him more
The elbow incident was seriously a joke. It happened between jv guys.
DeleteHenderson has already outperformed expectations so I think they finish respectably- 5th or 6th.
Lasalle surprises and wins. NA 2nd, Conestoga 3rd. And Ohara finally gets what has eluded them for years...a win over Henderson. But they have to settle for 4th place nonetheless.
Yea the elbow incident was between jv guys, but i feel like that shows the snootiness of wch. "Who are these wce scum to try and pass me at the end of a race", doesn't matter who it is, the first or the last guy. Also didn't rimkis (lol at the last name) or someone from wch elbow someone at belmont a few years back? it was the duel between russell and shearn and wch would have won but they didn't because one of their scoring runners got dq'd.
DeleteStop trying to create some drama in what has been a very meh year in PA XC for both boys and girls. Abert & Brophy keep it spiced up but from a team perspective? It could be any of those "good enough" teams. Yawn. When does track start?
DeleteThrowing an elbow is purely a heat of the moment competitive move. Snootiness? Don't think that was remotely a factor.
DeleteRimkis, a tall, very lanky runner got a raw deal that day (as did Russell). Little guy literally nestled in under him. His elbow barely grazed him but it should have been called the other way as the small runner interfered with Rimkis.
^^ agreed. I don't remember when I cared less about team xc. A few 8n divide also have made it interesting but otherwise, I can't tell one vanilla team from the next.
Delete^correction: individuals* wtf with autocorrect?
DeleteWell I wasnt at the belmot race so I am just going off the news story so I am not going to agree or disagree with anyone, and yea some people from wch are a little snooty because they think they are better than everyone else because of kevin kelly and that program.
DeleteI don't question your perception, but I have never found most of them snooty. Russell, who you might think would be, was extremely friendly. R.Barchet was kind of snooty but I always found the rest of those guys pretty decent at least in the past 3 years.
DeleteIf you're good, people will tend to judge you more harshly just because they're paying more attention to you.
Definitly agree with that, that is why i said some, not all. I have never spoken witth the top guys but they seem like good people because they are the face of the team. Its the slower kids that think they are all that because the rest of their team destroys, and they take it too far. Hence why the elbow incident was between jv guys.
Delete^I agree. Also, having the opportunity to run with Cummings, I can say that he was very humble about his wins. He won many races and even dropped a CR at Abington but did not brag or bring it up to lessen others. Chris you were a great role model.
DeleteI see what you're doing, you didn't think Henderson would do well at Districts and they did, so you're picking them to do well at States hoping they don't. Smart move.
ReplyDeleteI think Henderson and Mt Lebo are too high (I mean that figuratively). I would move up CV and CBW (this isn't their football team, right?). I would also put Parkland at 14 and drop Carlisle. I'm also gonna go out on a limb and put Lapsansky at 10 and drop Webb.
ReplyDeleteGriffin molino?
ReplyDeletesingle A, will win by a lot.
Delete1. Abert: 15:46: He’s gotten better every year and I think he’s a much smarter runner. I see him in Russell’s league which says alot.
ReplyDelete2. James: 15:51: Been very consistent this year. Experience and very good hill runner. If Abert is off slightly, I could see him pulling the upset.
3. Marston: 15:55: I think he is peaking at the right time. Posted excellent time in Lehigh and I see him as a better hill runner.
4. Brophy: 15:57: Thinking he should be #2 based on past two races. I’m a little bit concern that he’s ran very hard these last 2 races. My gut feeling is running 2 hard races will hurt him a little bit.
5. McGoey: 16:01: Team title on the line and I think he races wisely.
6. Comber: 16:02: I see him just a few seconds behind Brophy. He like Brophy has raced hard the last 2.
7. Power: 16:04: How can it be that he doesn’t match 15:50 that he ran earlier. My prediction is based on the whole season and he didn’t break 15:20 in Lehigh
8. Brehm: 16:05: Not really sure where to put him. I don’t think he is top 5 but definitely a top 10 runner. Seems to step up in post season.
9. Webb: 16:07: Gutsy runner. I could see him just outside top 5.
10. Gebhart: 16:10: Steady improvement since Soph. Deserving top 10
Team:
1. NA
2. COH
3. Conestoga
4. LaSalle
5 CV
I’m very late with predictions, it’s been a rough week, but at least I’m getting them in.
ReplyDeleteWell, I’ve got problems. Actually I have quite a few problems but I’ll only bore readers with those that are XC related.
The first problem is in the individual race. So I saw the Paul Short race on 10/4 and walked away thinking Abert was far and away the best in PA. He not only crushed a talented field, but he looked very comfortable doing it. It should be an easy prediction, right? - Abert to win states. Even with all the other great performances this season, nothing came close to Aberts 14:55 at Lehigh. Well, almost nothing.
At a relatively routine conference type championship on October 11, Kevin James won Delcos, going solo and breaking the course record. I’m sorry, I meant to say shattering the course record! He went 15:22 besting the 15:32 O’hara’s Hallihan put up in 2003. That Rose Tree course is no joke and I believe it has been unchanged since 1980 or something. There’s been a lot of great runners out of Delco in 34 years and he just destroyed the best XC mark.
Prior to that meet, James had been a little disappointing considering his resume. He finished a distant 3rd at Briarwood and 2nd at Foundation. But that was mid-September and things changed in October when he lit up Rose Tree. Then even more surprising is that he has toned it down a bit since that Delco race. In past years it seemed James/O’hara went all out at every race. But it looks like he has a different approach this year. He actually held back at PCL’s and Districts, running just what it took to win. This should make him more fresh at states than in prior years.
I’m seeing a two man race. I know Abert is the clear favorite. He’s comfortable leading and I expect he’ll take it out hard as usual, daring anyone to follow. But James has historically been a gutsy runner and he has a lot of experience in big races. As well as Abert is running, James shouldn’t be intimidated a bit. Which leads to my problem,. I've got to pick a winner.
In the end I’m liking how James has progressed this season and I’m picking him to win, pulling away from Abert in the last 600 or so. My picks:(all predictions of time assume a good day, but with the weather forecast, not likely)
1) James – 15:41
2) Abert – 15:45
3) Brophy – 15:58
4) Marston – 16:04
5) McGoey – 16:08
- RJJL
On the team race, who the heck knows? There are several teams who could pull a 2011 North Penn. So with that little qualification to cover a bad prediction, comes my second XC problem, I’ve got to pick teams. So here it goes.
ReplyDeleteAny WCH fans probably don’t want to see this prediction. I don’t see WCH a top 5 tomorrow. This Hershey course is so different that experience usually matters. Many a first timer has been 20 or so seconds off what they probably should have run, and some much worse. Very few kill it their first time on Hershey. Unfortunately for WCH, I believe only Knapp has run the course. Now I’d guess WCH has hill/hills in WC to simulate the Aloha hills, but nothing is like the real thing in race conditions. I’m putting WCH, , Mt Lebo and DWT 6 – 8, in that order, though not confidently.
My top 5 predictions:
5) CRN – Why? Why not? I’m not throwing Forrest and Etrain a bone here, well….no, I’m not. CRN has a solid team, they’re accustomed to expecting to do well at states, they’ve got decent depth and course experience. So CRN is my
#5.
4) LaSalle – A huge pack of 7, someone will have a bad day but the others should cover, they should do well.
3) Conestoga – My preseason pick for state champ. They won D1, they’ve been good, but not overwhelming. They have experience, they could certainly win this, but in the end I’m thinking they’re just a bit short.
2) North Allegheny – As usual, right in the mix. Most people’s favorites and if I had any sense I’d pick them too, they’re the safe bet. But I’m thinking this is a 10 point or less winner and I’m picking the sentimental choice.
1) O’hara – That’s right, O’hara. The team I always underestimate. They seem to have changed their approach this year. Instead of destroying at PLC’s, they did only what they had to do to win. With D12 getting the 2nd state qualifier this year they looked like they focused on qualifying this year instead of winning big. That conservative approach seems not only planned for a state peak, but a more cautious build up for states than in the past. Now like I said, I’m admittedly sentimental with this pick, because it’d be a great story if OH pulls it off. But they have the same pieces as any contender so why not?
Good luck to all!
- RJJL
Obviously someone at O'Hara slipped RJJL a 50 spot for these predictions.
DeleteBold. Probably took more than a 50 gor that though. He makes sense, especially about James. Not so convinced about the team win though but he does make a good point about the Hershey course favoring experience. Ohara has that going for them too. I can see James coming in 2nd to Abert, Still think NA wins but Ohara #2.
DeleteRJJL is kevin kelly, he ranked wch poorly because he is trying to disguise himself or he knows that wch will do poorly because he is the coach, if he is right he is going to have to prove he is not kevin kelly.
Delete^ Word
Delete^funny because I thought he wrote all that in hopes of motivating his team.
Delete^or that too, so if henderson does bad, ok or very well rjjl is ckearly kevin kelly.
DeleteIs the weather as crappy at Hershey as it is here in district 1 land?
DeleteMaybe RJJKelly is taking over the head coaching job at Ohara instead of Malvern?
Delete^For reelz?
DeleteSo rjjl wasnt completely right but he has to lay low for a while now that we are on to coughcoughkevinkellycoughcough him.
DeleteLast minute predictions: sloppy course, cold day= slower times
ReplyDelete1- Abert
2- James
3- Brophy
4- Comber
5- McGoey
6- Brehm
7- Power
8- Marston
9- Webb
10- Seiger
Teams:
1- O'Hara- They look like they changed things up to peak at the right time. They obviously trained through districts so they have a shot at pulling this off.
2- North Allegheny- Could easily knock off O'Hara if their 3-5 run well.
3- LaSalle- Tight pack but I don't see them finishing far enough up front to upend COH or NA
4- Cumberland Valley- Very solid team all around that can finish anywhere between 4-10. I think the slower race conditions favor them.
5- Conestoga- I'm still baffled by their racing schedule this year. They looked lousy in Van Courtland and WCH nearly stunned them at districts.
I like CRN. I think Arita will grab a medal. I also like WCH, They have a great 1-4, but it's hard to count on a freshman in a big race towards the end of the season plus their #5 will probably be around 18:00 and that's just too many points to overcome.
I'll send updates from Hersey.
NDR
Thanks in advance NDR for those updates.
DeleteGood team analysis, btw. I agree.
Very similar to coach RJJL predictions. We'll know in a few hours. Keep the updates coming!
DeleteI know nobody here cares but the girls AAA race was crazy. Pennsbury and Unionville battled it out again and Pennsbury held on by 5 points (68 to 73). Olivia Sargent won it in 17:48 and I'll bet that's faster than Henderson's 5th man will run today. The course is running pretty fast and it's not as bad as I thought it would be. This boys AAA race is going to be something special.
DeleteNDR
Yeah, surprisingly, the course is in good shape. Weather is crisp and cloudy. Perfect. No excuses today, boys.
DeleteBrianna Schwartz is a beast and how about that little Sargeant? Way to show up.
^Yea and pennsbury returns their whole top 5 and their #7 so they will be a force next year, national champs maybe?
DeleteSchwartz would have been 40th in the guys A race. Think about that for a second. Wow.
DeleteNDR, correction, schwartz won the race in 17:39. Sargent was the first team scorer.
DeleteDidn't mean to short Schwartz. She was amazing out there today.
DeleteNDR
Lex must be bummed about that result.
Deletebet he still finds a way to interview his favorite.
DeleteHahaha. Probably. Is her pic up on PTrack yet?
DeleteMolino wins in 15:46, russell's cr is going to get smashed smashed by abert, im guessing 15:35.
ReplyDeleteHockembury wins AA in 16:00
ReplyDeleteBrophy in 15:24....holy crap
ReplyDeleteN/A
ReplyDeleteConestoga
COH
DTW
Easton
AAA results?
ReplyDeleteRunhigh.com or look about 3 inches above this comment.
DeleteA few thoughts:
ReplyDelete1) What happened to Gordy Barchet, Henderson could have been at least second if he had a good race. On the other hand, Smucker delivered, 16:24 grabs him a medal and he's the top freshman by 40 seconds. Hats off to him, this kid is going places.
2) D-West delivered today, not on the level that some have been claiming they would on this blog, but enough to silence many critics.
3) Easton, CBW, CV, Henderson, CRN all separated by less than ten points. If they ran this race again those five could be in any order, that's ridiculous to have five teams that close, especially when three races each other last week
4) La Salle finishes 10, what happened there?
5) As someone already said, Jake Brophy 15:24, insane and he's only a junior, let the comparisons to Russel begin.
Um, no offense to Russell, but at this point there is no comparison.
DeleteIdk what happened to Lasalle or G. Barchet. My guess is Lasalle went too hard at their district meet and had nothing left in the tank? Barchet? Who knows? Dude didn't look like he fell or anything drastic. Just a bad day for him and I'm sure he feels like crap about it too. How about O'Hara putting 3 in the medals and still not winning? It must ache, year after year to be that close but it was a great effort. James is all that.
Barchet fell about 1 mile in
DeleteI was following that race and never saw him fall but whatever, I guess I missed it. Tough day for him anyway. Hope he's ok.
DeleteThat sucks but at least he finished.
DeletePretty sure he did not fall. May have gotten pushed around like the rest early on. Sometimes it's just not your day. Sucks for him it was the day of state champs.
DeleteHe's had a nice season. For whatever reason, today was likely not the race he hoped for. Let's leave it at that.
Deletehttp://www.runhigh.com/2014RESULTS/R110114AA.html
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what happened to Aaron Gebhart. Looks like he went out with the top guys, 4:43 through the mile, and then ran 16:52 or something. Did he fall, get hurt, or just die?
ReplyDelete-GBC
Those who identified themselves and predicted the top 5 for both individual and teams:
ReplyDeleteCummings - 4 out of 5 individuals, 3 out of 5 teams = 7 total
Etrain - 4 individual, 3 teams = 7 total
Forrest - 4 individual, 3 teams = 7 total
NDR - 4 individual, 3 teams = 7 total
RJJL - 5 individual, 3 teams = 8 total
Evan - 4 individual, couldn't find his team picks
RTJ - couldn't find it either
Even after questioning and insulting Forest, Carlisle didn't really show.
ReplyDelete