NY/NE Regional Coverage!

New York flat out killed it today. Junior Mike Brannigan from Northport brought the race out hard in 7:52 at the 2.5k mark and hammered it home running 15:29.9, one of the fastest times on this course since the Rosa twins!!! According the Milesplit twitter this is a Junior Course record! His performance helped bring 12 runners sub 16 for the Bowdoin Park layout, 3 of them on F-M’s team helping them to score 48 points with a 16:02 average!!! Brannigan’s teammates followed up nicely with 4 guys in the top 20 to score 76 points and a 16:10 average. US#12 Liverpool finished 3^rd with 94 points and a 16:21 average and the Assisi XC Club was 4^th overall with 107 points and a 16:27 average! 

What’s great about the Nike Regionals for Northeast and New York is they’re run on the same course. US#1 CBA wins the Northeast Regional scoring 85 points with a 16:15 average which is #4 All-Time apparently. I’m not sure if this accounts for Northport and F-M’s performances today, but either way, they both killed it. West Chester Henderson (Warrior TC) follows them with 114 points and a 16:23 average. One big difference is how hard both races went out. Russell and Kevin James lead the field in the first 2.5k in 8:03, 11 seconds slower than NY runners. This played very well into Russell’s hands who runs the second half of races very well, and he was able to grab the victory by just over a second. 

Ridgefield (CT) came up really big for a 3rd place finish scoring 151 points and a 16:32 average. Cardinal O’Hara finishes just behind them with 161 points and a 16:33.8 average. 

Looking at the team averages it looks as though New York will at least send 1 team since Liverpool was ranked US#12 going in and they had a 16:21 average which beat Henderson’s. Ridgefield’s average is 5 seconds behind 4^th place NY finisher Assisi XC Club, so I’d have to imagine that they’d be picked first.

That being said, if no teams from the Northeast get an At-Large bid, the runners who individually make it look as follows:

1) Tom O’Neill – Lions TC (NJ) – O’Neill didn’t run great at MoC’s but he comes up big when it matters to make nationals. 

2) Christian Stafford – Titians Track Club (MA) – Stafford came up huge for his team who needed two low sticks to compete for those top 4 places. He did that for them, but their bottom half didn’t look great as they finish 7^th overall.

3) Trevor Hopper – Ridgefield (CT) – Hopper had a great chance of making nationals going in, but I never suspected his team would run so well behind him, putting 3 guys in the top 25! Really great racing by Ridgefield, they deserve a lot of credit. 

4) Griffin Molino – UNA-PA-DuBoistown (PA) – Molino ran a really fantastic race, mixing it up out front at 2.5k in 8:04. He fell a bit off the pace, but got the top done in the end. He is also the top junior finisher in the race. 

5) Kevin James – Cardinal O’Hara XC (PA) – James and the O’Hara boys wanted to make it back to nationals after a great 5^th place finish last season. He lead the charge with 3 in the top 25 (team wise), but it just wasn’t enough in the end. James however will get to make the trip out to Oregon for the second straight year.

Other PA performances to note: Jaxon Hoey placed 12^th overall and was the top sophomore in the race running 16:03! Aidan Tooker (15:46) and Peter Ryan (15:58) are the only sophomores from NY who ran faster. Tooker’s performance was a sophomore record. 

Aaron Gebhart was 16^th overall and had a really solid race. He’ll be competing for a nationals spot next season for sure. Belfatto and Smart both had really nice race’s, it was just tough on the younger guys to extend their seasons for O’Hara. 

Kyle Levermore ran a really great race placing 15^th overall still coming back from injury. His teammate Higgins lost a shoe in the first mile which really hurt his time… and foot. His place hasn’t been registered either. 

CBA also ran as a back in the end placing 35-38 with their 4-7 guys since Fran Bogan is sick. This team is scary good and I underestimated them, but I also assumed Barchet would place top 5, but he was 20^th overall. Hoping he has a bounce back race next weekend for a repeat All-American performance. 

Really excited about next weekend as PA boys send 3 individuals and 1 team automatically to the national meets, while PA girls send 3 individuals and 2 teams automatically to the national meets!!!

Unionville was led by Courtney Smith, who gets the win in sub 18. She was followed by 3 teammates in the top 10 to help give them the team title. Emily Fisher is still recovering from mono and placed 53^rd overall. She is usually the teams 3^rd runner. Give her another two weeks of strength and this team will be scary good. Their team average of 18:56 was just beaten only by F-M who ran 18:44. If Fisher can bring her time down a bit they can easily challenge for the national title.

Just a fantastic job today by all PA competitors; #padontplay

--ForrestCRN

Footlocker Results! Ross Wilson Only PA to Nationals! - NXN UPDATE~3:00 PM

Updated 1:15 PM: No official results yet, but Jim Lambert (lambo2126 on twitter) posted that Tony Russell Repeated for the win in 15:45. Second place was Tom O'Neill (NJ-15:47) and 3rd was Mike McClemens (NJ - 15:49). Apparently CBA wins with 85 points in a 16:15 average (4th All-Time). Henderson finishes second getting the auto-Q with 115 points! Ridgefield (CT) finishes third and O'Hara finishes 4th! Congrats guys!

And the results are up from Footlocker!

Ross Wilson is the only PA guy to make it placing 10^th overall!

Mickey Burke from NY takes the title in a swift 15:19 clocking and the results look as follows:

2. Chris Alvarado (CT) - 15:21

3. Alexander Ostbert (CT) - 15:22

4. Liam Mullett (NJ) - 15:29

5. Josef Holt-Andrews (ME) - 15:37

6. Daniel Curts (ME) - 15:39

7. Scott Meehan (NJ) - 15:39

8. Tai Dinger (DC) - 15:40

9. Louis Corgliano (NJ) -15:41

10. Ross Wilson (PA) -15:41

On the Women's Side:

17:32	Tessa Barrett	Waverly, PA
17:37	Anoush Shehadeh	Larchmont, NY
17:39	Hannah DeBalsi	Westport, CT
17:43	Brianna Schwartz	Pittsburgh, PA
17:43	Briana Gess	Haddonfield, NJ
17:50	Megan Reilly	Warwick, NY
18:03	Jessica Lawson	Addison, NY
18:03	Regan Rome	Dallas, PA
18:04	Katie Lembo	Penfield, NY
18:06	Kirstin Sandreuter	North Yarmouth, ME

4 Overall Runners sent from PA this season! Congrats to Tessa Barrett with the big, but not unexpected win at Footlocker along with Brianna Schwartz and Regan Rome for also qualifying from PA on the girls side.

First thoughts: Shocked that nobody else from PA made it, last year PA was very strong and sent 4 guys, and I thought this class had similar ability. Wilson comes up really clutch for that 10^th spot however. The 1-2 guys going in, Burke and Alvarado, show their prowess finishing 1-2. Ostbert was right with Alvarado in CT meets all season and he stuck with him once again in this meet for 3^rd. He’s only a junior which is great going forward.

Whomever called Liam Mullett making it, you were spot on. I can’t believe it, but the guy really did take it easy for MoC’s to ensure he made nationals. I guess that’s a good call. Kid really showed up when it mattered, so congrats! 

The Maine runners Holt-Andrews and Curts both made it in with the 5-6 positions. They’ve gone at it up north all season, but Curts had a hamstring injury nagging him for a while, and I wasn’t sure how that would affect his performance. He showed up and ran well today. This is his first lost to H-A this season, give him two more weeks and I bet he’ll be ready to roll at nationals. 

Behind him a two guys who totally missed my radar in Scott Meehan and Tai Dinger, so here’s some background, cause I had to look them up: Scott Meehan placed 11^th at MoC’s and seems to be an XC only runner with only a PR of 9:30 for 3200 to his name. He stepped it up big time to make it in. Tai Dinger is a runner from St. Albans in Washington D.C. The only big race he’s run this season was Salesianum where he placed 4^th overall and was just two seconds in front of CR North’s Brian Arita. He does have a 4:15 1600 PR to his name and had the day of his life to make it in to nationals.

Louis Corgliano placed 9^th overall after a 3^rd place finish at MoC’s. Tough to have 3 big races in a row, as shown by NJ guys who missed it like Kyle Kroon and Josiah Hanko. Corgliano toughed it out and with a two week rest he’ll be ready for a higher finish at the national meet.

Ross Wilson sneaks to nationals with a 10^th place finish overall, giving Marrington 4 FL finalists since 1999. Wilson had this as a goal all season, and as an ex-teammate of his, I must say I’m really proud of all the work he’s put in and seeing it pay off in this meet.

Usually this meet is dominated by NJ and PA finishes, but the New England’s dominated the race up front with 4 in the top 6!

I’m most surprised that Abert missed it. The kid is really talented and he’ll be going places in the future. This should only add to his high motivation and drive to succeed on big stages. Look for him to be back indoors and outdoors in a big way. Kyle Kroon was 5^th last season and missed it this year which is quite shocking, but running twice in a row at Holmdel and then coming to Van Cortland Park must be brutal. Also Paul Hogan of Massachusetts looked like he was ready to roll, but didn’t find himself in the top 10. 

Really great racing by everyone today and once again congrats on the top 10 who will be traveling out to San Diego for nationals (Dec. 14^th)!

--ForrestCRN

New Saucony Top 50 and its meaning for Northeast Teams

No surprises that NJ’s Christian Brother Academy’s record breaking average time of 15:52 kept them in the number one ranking. I do not know if the Holmdel course has changed much over the past few years, but I went back to the year 2000 and marked the number of guys sub 16: 

·         2000 – 1

·         2001 – 6

·         2002 – 5

·         2003 – 8 (Mohamed Khadraoui as a junior ran 15:22)

·         2004 – 2

·         2005 – 6

·         2006 – 6 (Craig Forys ran 15:15.11 as a senior. Wins by 30 seconds)

·         2007 – 2

·         2008 – 5

·         2009 – 11 (Joe Rosa as a junior ran 14:56 and Jim (twin) ran 15:15)

·         2010 – 11 (15:14 win by Jim Rosa. Morgan Pearson (recently 16^th @ NCAAs was 5^th in 15:38)

·         2011 – 12 (Tim Ball win in 15:31)

·         2012 – 12 – Without the CBA guys who were taking the weekend off. I would guess around 2 of them would have broken it, considering McClemens did it as a sophomore (year before)

As we can see it for the most part there has been an upward trend the past few years since 2009. I’m not sure if the course was made easier or the talent in NJ has gotten better, but guys like Craig Forys (DMR national champion, and multi time MoC winner with doubles in the 1600 and 3200) still were able to run very fast times on the course. And guys like Mohamed Khadraoui went on to become a 3 Time All-American at Iona in XC. What I’m getting at here is that the Meet of Champions at Holmdel has still produced very fast times from extraordinary runners during “slow” years. This season we saw 18 people break 15:56 while before this the most in a year was 12 breaking 16:00. I feel as though it is safe to say that this year was extremely fast and to chalk up CBA running 15:52 (which is very, very impressive, I won’t deny it) as better than they were in 2011 when they won nationals (16:04 average at Holmdel), is ridiculous in my opinion. This squad is clearly very strong and I would mark them as top 5 in the nation, but Saucony seems to be overlooking how fast the results are this season.

BUT in terms of sending teams to nationals this is great for the Northeast region. With the Saucony guys so up on CBA I have no doubt that they’ll be forced to send at least one squad with an At-Large bid. Having 5 teams racing that are in the top 25 (US #1 CBA, US#13 WCH, US#17 Don Bosco, US#19 Pembroke, US#24 O’Hara) and not in the race is US#20 North Allegheny.

California’s Warren (US#10) shocks US#4’s Arcadia moving them down just one place. This brings California four teams in the top 10 now, making it more difficult for two Northeast teams to make it with At-Large bids. 

On some positive news for the Northeast however is that Central Catholic was moved down to US#18 and Hinsdale Central was moved to US#23, make them less likely to get At-Large bids. 

--ForrestCRN

P.S. http://ny.milesplit.com/articles/116905-nike-cross-nationals-northeast-regional-preview#_=_ is the preview from Milesplit on the Northeast Regional. I encourage everyone to check it out. Post there or here with comments on the article. His take is very, very different from mine. A little bit of difference in opinion is a good thing :)

Footlocker Northeast Preview (Updated)

 An update to the Post was needed since Mickey Burke (US#24 from NY) recently signed up for the Footlocker Regional Meet. He has been added to the List and Josef Holt-Andrews was moved up after some deliberation.
 Also, for anyone who did not read the last FL Preview post, these are not my picks for who will win or the order of place, it is my opinion on most likely to make it to the national meet. Guys who are ranked higher have a better % chance of making it. All of the races that these guys have run have been researched. Times, History, Conditions, and who they raced/beaten have been taken into account. These are just short tidbits of the total research that has gone into such picks.


1. Christian Alvarado (Sr, CT)

Alvarado is the top guy on this list for many reasons. 1) He’s the #2 returner from last season (8^th). 2) His coach has sent the most guys to FL from any region in the past 15 years aka he will peak perfectly. 3) He’s an animal on the hills. Every hilly race he has performed well and won. 4) He was 3^rd at Penn Relays 3k last season in 8:26. He’s got a kick as well.

2. Mickey Burke (Sr, NY)

New York runners rarely go out for Footlocker, but NY’s phenom Mickey Burke has decided to attend the Footlocker regional meet, which in my opinion, is a great idea for him. Burke placed 3^rd at both the Manhattan Invitational and New York State Championships. Burke also has some fantastic track credentials with a 9 flat 2-Mile to his name. There is no doubt that he’ll be mixing it up out front for the win. He is currently ranked as US#24.

3. Colin Abert (Jr, PA)

This may come as a surprise to have Abert at number two, but the kid is a gamer. Abert loves to go out hard, but he also closes better than just about anyone I’ve seen. No question he’ll be in the mix (aka top 15) with 800 to go, and on this course you can flat out roll. No question Abert grabs a spot in my mind.

4. Kyle Kroon (Sr, PA)

Kroon placed 5^th last season (top returner) and just placed 4^th in the MoC’s for NJ. Kroon has had some very solid races this season and always mixes it up out front. I think he’s had his eyes on nationals this season after going last year and will be peaking for that, not MoC’s. I have no doubt this will be his best race of the season up until nationals.

5. Paul Hogan (Sr, MA)

Hogan didn’t race very well last year, but he got the experience, making him a better candidate for this season. He was undefeated until All-States where he lost to junior phenom Carleo(will be at NXN). It was a very fast course and only 2.9 miles, which disadvantages the strength of Hogan. He’s that much better over 5k and hills benefit him. No doubt he’ll be in the running to win in the last 800, but may lose some ground. He shouldn’t lose enough to not make the top 10 however.

6. Josiah Hanko (Sr, NJ)

Hanko didn’t have his best race this past weekend, placing 9th at MoC’s. He’s the 3^rd best returner after placing 14^th last season. He’s got a very strong kick which makes him almost a lock to go. I originally had him at #3, but I switched him and Kroon after thinking about it a bit more. He’s ran some awesome times this season, but Kroon’s nationals focus is what gives him an edge. Don’t sleep on Hanko for the win however.

7. Ross Wilson (Sr, PA)

Wilson has had a very solid, but long season. I think this break from racing will show dividents with Wilson running very well. Coach Marrington has sent the second most runners to FL in the past 15 years (behind Alvarado’s Coach) so you know Wilson will peak well. He’s very strong and should be mixing it up with 800 to go. It’s hilly, which helps Wilson out, but the last 800, like Hogan he’ll lose a bit of ground. I don’t think that he’ll fall out of the top 10 however.

8. Louis Corgliano (Sr, NJ)

Another change after the MoC’s, I had Corgliano at #9, but after a superb race for 3^rd at MoC’s I had to move him up. Corgliano has raced very well all season and is peaking at the right time. He just has to carry that peak one more week, which isn’t too hard to do. I think he has a very good shot at sliding into the national meet.

9. Dominic Deluca (Sr, PA)

Deluca isn’t necessarily the 8^th best guy in the field, but he’s got one major advantage over most guys on the starting line: This is his only true test of the season. Most top guys had big state meets coming before this, but Deluca didn’t need to taper at all, giving him extra steady training through October and November. Plus it’s the only race on his mind. I think this mental edge is key, and Deluca will come through to grab that spot. He’s a great hill runner as shown with that 15:43 earlier this season at PTXC.

10. Alex Ostberg (Jr, CT)

Ostberg is the second junior on this list, and usually two to three juniors grab spots to the national meet. He placed 2^nd at New England’s to Hopper and lost to Alverado and Hopper at the CT state meet. He will be mixing it up with this top group and has an excellent chance of making. He runs both flats and hills well.

11. Josef Holt-Andrews (MA, Sr)

After looking more at Holt-Andrews, I’m back on the bandwagon. He ran sub 15 for 5k at New Balance nationals last season and tore up the XC scene in MA this year. He placed 3^rd at New England’s on a fast course and the hills should benefit him. He placed 22^nd last season and knows what it will take to be in the top 10.

12. Stephen Maine (Sr, NJ)

Bit shaky as well with this one, but Maine seems to be peaking very well after a 5^th place performance at MoC’s. He hasn’t had killer meets this season, but peaking well will do it for you, getting into this meet. His running level, in my opinion, is around 13-15 on this list, but if he’s peaking better than those guys, he gets the edge for me.

13. Chris Kazanjian (Sr, PA)

Chris has the talent level of top 7 on this list, no question in my mind. If this were a week after states and a big goal of his, I would say he’s almost a lock for FL, but he’s 11^th on this list and here is why: C. Kazanjian, to my knowledge, didn’t have this as a big goal going into the season. He ran very well at districts and states, but it’s tough to extend ones season an extra month when it wasn’t a goal since the beginning of the season.  I think this puts both Kazanjian’s at a disadvantage mentally, which is why I don’t have him in the top 10.

14. Chase Weaverling (Sr, MD)

Weaverling has put together some really nice wins this season over weak Maryland competition and has only one lost to Louis Colson of Virginia, who just won his state meet by 30 seconds! Weaverling heald with him till the last 800. We haven’t seen a lot from this kid, and this may not be his true place, but Wearverling is my dark horse at number 12.

15. Colin Martin (PA, Sr)

Colin Martin has had a fantastic season so far and I’ve really liked the races he’s put together. I don’t know if he’ll have enough to compete with some of these top tier guys at regionals to make it to Nat’s. He’s lost his training partner again which will have made this past month even tougher for him. That being said, he is a very strong runner and the course should benefit him. He’s got good odds.

16. Owen Gonser – (MA, Sr)

Gonser has really impressed me this season, including a solo’d 15:24 effort at MIAA Eastern’s, but talent wise he’s not at the top of this list. It’s a very talented field and I think he’ll have a tough time making it, that being said he’s still got a good shot going into the race.

--ForrestCRN

NX Northeast Preview

NXN Northeast Preview – Individual and Team along with National Implications

You can find the start list at: http://usa.milesplit.com/meets/147924/attachment/277886

 

Just a reminder that the top two teams automatically go along with the top 5 individuals, the team information will be explained further, later in this article.

1.       Tony Russell (1) – Warrior Track Club – Nats with Team

2.       Mike McClemens  (2) – Brothers TC – Nats with Team

3.       Reiny Barchet (3) – Warrior Track Club – Nats with Team

4.       Dylan Tarpey - UNA-NJ-Freehold – 1^st Individual

5.       Tom O’Neill (4) – Lions Track Club – 2^nd Individual

6.       Nick Carleo (5) – Maudslay Track Club – 3^rd Individual

7.       Griffin Molino – UNA-PA-DuBoistown – 4^th Individual

8.       Kevin James (6) – Cardinal O’Hara XC Club – Nats with Team? (If not last individual)

9.       Christian Stafford (7) – Titians Track Club – Nats with Team? (If no team but O’Hara goes he’s the last Individual in)

10.   Patrick Reilly -  UNA-PA-York – 5^th Individual? (Only if O’Hara and Titians TC make it)

11.   Jaxson Hoey (8) – Black Friar XC Club

12.   Michael Higgins (9) – Don Bosco Track Club

13.   Craig Corti (10) – Wallkill Valley Running

14.   Blaise Ferro (11) – Brothers TC

15.   Trevor Hooper (12) – Ridgefield

16.   Colin Tierney (13) – Hawks Track Club

17.   John Valeri (14) – Titans Track Club

18.   Nick Smart (15) – Cardinal O’Hara XC Club

19.   Aaron Gebhart – UNA-PA-New Oxford

20.   Kyle Levermore (16) – Don Bosco Track Club

Team Scores:

1.       Warriors Track Club (West Chester Henderson) (1, 3, 17, 29, 34) = 84

When I saw that Henderson was in front of CBA I was shocked, I’ll be honest. I can’t believe this is the way the results play out, especially with how strong CBA looked last weekend, but I have no doubt Barchet will show up and Russell will get the victory. This is clearly the best 1-2 punch in the region, if not the nation (Brentwood’s top 3 is fantastic). Behind them we see strong runners and Knapp has really taken it to the next level this season. Collins, Waltz, and Stratman have been exchanging for those last two spots all season which has made the 3 of them even better. After a lot of deliberation I think they can take down CBA.

2.       Brothers TC (Christian Brothers Academy) (2, 11, 18, 27, 31) = 89

This past weekend CBA ran an unbelievable race at Holmdel. They put on a 15:52 team average on a hilly course, which you couldn’t tell by the way they ran it. But then again, give Henderson an extra 3 weeks I bet their average would be around 16:05 or 16:00 for Hershey’s course.  Mike McClemens has taken it to the next level this season which is key for this team’s success. Behind him, sophomore Blaise Ferro has been running very well placing 8^th at MoC’s which is no joke. This squad just does not have the spread I had thought they would going into the start of the season. Tom Rooney isn’t running as well as he was last season, and their 4-5 guys haven’t performed as well as expected, especially Josh Kruppa (jr) who was a key piece for them last season. If he can have a bounce back race however they can win the region. 

3.       Cardinal O’Hara XC Club (Cardinal O’Hara) (6, 15, 19, 38, 43) = 121

This is a tough pick to make, since Cardinal O’Hara has a lot of shaky pieces. Nick Smart came up huge at the state meet, and if he can keep that up he’ll be big time for the squad. Jim Belfatto placed 26^th at states and I thought he would be a shoe in medalists. He will need to have a good day as well for them. Behind him freshman Ryan James has continued to get stronger this season, but will it prove to be too long for him? This score could be a bit inflated, but if they all race well it’s very possible. 

4.       Titians Track Club (Pembroke) (7, 14, 35, 39, 42) = 137

Pembroke’s squad has looked fantastic the past two weeks. They’ve got a strong 1-2 punch and a really nice spread with their 3-5 guys. The main issue this team has is that their 3-5 guys are just too far back to make them a big powerhouse. Christian Stafford and John Valeri have been on fire and Stafford has a great shot at making it to nationals as an individual. If just one of their 3-5 runners has a big day they can pass O’Hara, especially if Smart or Belfatto is off. 

5.       Don Bosco Track Club (Don Bosco Prep) – (9, 16, 25, 44, 50) = 144

Don Bosco started off the season very poorly. They totally fell off the radar, but this squad is really coming together at the right time. After placing 2^nd at the NJ Meet of Champions with a very good 16:12 average I think they’ve taken the right steps to be successful. Higgins looks great and Levermore has gotten better every meet since returning from injury. His place may be a bit high, but I think this 8:55 3200 guy can step it up for his team. 

6.       Black Friar XC Club (Malvern Prep) (8, 28, 30, 45, 47) = 158

The Hoey twins should be the top guys on this squad and they’ve all been running very well. I think they ran the best out of all teams at the Singer Farms invitational. Jaxson Hoey is an animal of a sophomore and if he runs as well as he did for that two mile race, he could very well snag himself a nationals spot. His younger brother has made some great progress as just an 8^th grader and he should be right with Billy McDevitt who beat out Alex Knapp at that race. I think Knapp has far more in him, but McDevitt has gotten much better. They also have a decent 4-5 and they should place quite well at this meet.

Before I get to team scoring, I would like to note a few things about making it to nationals as a team. Here is the official procedure from the NXN website: NXN Information:

“Automatic qualifiers into Nike Cross Nationals from the NXN Regionals: The top two placing clubs in each gender of the Championship Division race at each NXN regional will earn automatic berths to NXN in Portland. Additionally, the top five placing individuals who are not on automatically placing clubs will advance to NXN as individual qualifiers.

At-Large qualifiers into Nike Cross Nationals from the NXN Regionals: A total of four at-large club berths per gender will be awarded. Clubs placing either third or fourth in the Championship Division race at each NXN regional will move into a pool of clubs receiving consideration for advancing to NXN as an at-large qualifier. A committee of experts will determine the at-large qualifiers.

STATES INCLUDED
NJ - PA - CT - MA - ME - VT - RI – NH”


The main piece I would like to analyze is the “At-Large” qualifiers. There are 4 given to boys clubs across the nation. The Northeast, California, and New York are the last regional races to occur, which is good for prediction purposes. Here are the top 4 teams from each regional race that have occurred already along with their ranking in the nation at the start of the year and current ranking. The start of the year ranking will be from Dyestat’s list of 120 teams, and then current rankings will come from Saucony’s list that is sponsored by Flotrack. It seems from previous years that such rankings are taken into account by the “experts” who determine the At-Large bids. Of course this is speculation, but I will attempt to figure out who will go from the NE based on president, my team prediction scores, and how other teams have done!  First we will look at the 3 meets this weekend and their chances of getting an At-Large Bid… or two.

California State Meet:
This meet has not happened yet, but it has US #3 Arcadia, US#6 Brea Olinda, and US#9 Madera South along with 6 other teams on the Saucony Watch List. California, like New York, is treated as a “region” so they send two teams automatically. With 3 teams in the top 10 of the rankings, I think it fairly safe to say California will get one of these 4 bids, leaving only three left.

New York State Meet:
This meet also has not happened, but it is featuring US #5 Fayetteville-Manlius, US #12 Liverpool, and US#24 Northport along with one bubble team in Saratoga Springs who has been ranked in the top 25 a few times this season. New York has a very good chance of sending one team with an At-Large bid if Northport of Saratoga Springs can get close to Liverpool in points during the race.

Northeast Regional Meet:
This meet is the focus of the article and you can see the predicted scores later in the article, but this space will be used to look at this meet like I have with the other regional meets. The Northeast regional seems to be the strongest in the nation right now. CBA (Christian Brothers Academy) has been ranked #1 nearly all season, and they just ran a team average of 10 seconds faster than they did during their national win a few years ago on Holmdel’s course. Behind them West Chester Henderson is ranked US#11 and started off the season as US#5. They have not raced a 5k since the state meet over 3 weeks ago, and I believe they will move into the top 7 after the race. Behind them is US#16 Pembroke, US#17 North Allegheny, and US#20 Cardinal O’Hara. I don’t believe any other region has 5 ranked teams in the top 20, which gives the Northeast an advantage when it comes to At-Large bids. North Allegheny will not be attending the regional meet due to injury and sickness, but their ranking gives a boost to Pembroke and O’Hara. I would have to imagine the Northeast gets one, if not two, bids to the national championships, especially if they all race well.

Southeast Regional Meet:
This region is also stacked, like the Northeast with some amazing teams. Lead by US#7 Brentwood, US#12 Liverpool, and US #23 St. Xavier (KY). They also have two teams on the watch list in Tatnall, who was on the top 25 list for a few weeks, and Severna Park from Maryland. (Yes, Maryland teams go to Southeast and individuals to Northeast, I do not understand that one, but Footlocker and Nike chalk up regions differently). They’ve got a good chance as well for sending an extra team, especially if St. Xavier runs a very strong race. Tatnall has an impressive 8^th grader that they’ve been racing now who will help the team out and Severna Park is no joke. They very well could send two teams. There is a wonderful article about the regional race: http://va.milesplit.com/articles/116829-nxn-southeast-regional-pre-meet-team-rankings-preview#.UpVQTuKAdEk

Now let’s take some time to look at the regional meets that have already occurred:

Southwest Regional Meet:
This meet was dominated by US#2 American Fork (111) and the second auto-qualifier was grabbed by unranked Davis (164). Behind them were the Vista Nation and All Tiger XC Clubs with a score of 209 points. US #22 CDS XC placed a surprising 6^th with 242 points after moving into the top 25 for the first time last week. When the new rankings come out it seems as though Davis will take that top 25 spot, but I don’t believe either of the teams behind them will grab an At-Large bid however.

South Regional Meet:
Southlake Carroll was ranked 9^th going into the season, but has recently fallen out of the top 25. They claimed victory over the region however with a score of 90 points. Bubble team College Park placed 4^th with 146 points. The second auto-qualifier was snatched up by the Hebron Cross Country Club who beat out The Woodlands XC club by 8 points. I think Southlake Carroll’s victory will move them into the top 25, but the region is not strong enough to send another team to nationals.

Midwest Regional Meet:

US#10 Carmel and US#14 St. Xavier (OH) went at it in the Midwest regional, with Carmel coming out on top with 103 points to St. Xavier’s 120. St. Xavier had a better team average along with the winner in Evan Stifel. Behind them was Hinsdale Central with 200 points and Columbus North with 208. To me it seems as though the point different would be too much, but Hinsdale Central was recently ranked US#19 by Saucony and Columbus North was put on the Watch List. Before that meet Hinsdale was ranked 10^th in the nation and York (7^th in the region) was ranked 13^th. This region has gotten a lot of love from the national rankings this season and it is feasible that Hinsdale Central and Columbus North get pushed into the national meet because of it.

Northwest Regional Meet:

US #4 Gig Harbor ran very well with a 37 second spread and 70 points, beating out 3 other ranked squads. Runner-up was US#8 North Central with 114 points, followed by US#15 Central Catholic (140) (moved up one spot) and US#25 Nathan Hale (157). Central Catholic has been ranked around 15^th all season and I would be shocked if they didn’t get one of the 4 bids. Between them and California those, in my opinion, are locked At-Large spots.

Heartland Regional Meet:

US#18 Edina claimed victory over US#21 Wayzata with scores of 106 to 135. They both averaged 16:07 on the Heartland layout, but a 25 second spread helped Edina get the win. Behind them were Stillwater Area (204) and Manhattan High School (205). Neither team is on the watch list, so it seems safe to make the claim that neither team will get an At-Large bid.

Summary:

It seems that California (3 teams in the top 10) will send one team at large and Central Catholic (Northwest) has a very strong chance of being sent as well. Hindsdale Catholic (US#19 -Midwest) also has a very strong shot at grabbing a bid. Recently ranked US#25 Nathan Hale (Northwest) could also sneak in, as could US#24 Northport if they have a strong race this weekend. The Northeast is setting itself up to potentially send two teams in US#17 Pembroke and US#20 Cardinal O’Hara. The Southeast Regional is also very strong with US#23 St. Xavier being the 3^rd place team with two strong Watch List teams behind them. This weekend will determine a lot, but it seems as though 10 teams will be fighting for those last 4 spots when all is said and done. Seven of those teams will race this weekend.

--ForrestCRN