Hey guys, I'm so sorry for the lack of posting and stories. I've got 4 big research papers due in 2 weeks so I've been working like crazy on research for all of them. I'll be doing my best to continue to keep up with meets on the weekends, but I don't have a ton of time to write up the stories. I'm really sorry about that, but they will get on the blog, I promise. Here is a quick NXN Northeast Preview on what I know along with an update from the FL list.
NXN Northeast
Right now I don’t have a list of who is and is not attending
the NXN Meet, unlike Footlocker. If anyone can find the list, that’d be
fantastic. Most of this post will be based on results from last season.
I still don’t know if NA is attending, so they will not be
added to the simulation. If I find out that they are, I will make the changes.
- Tony Russell (1) - WCH
- Mike McClemens (2) - CBA
- Reiny Barchet (3) - WCH
- Tom O’Neill
- Liam Mullett
- Nick Carleo (4)
- Griffin Molino (Last in)
- Kevin James (5) – O’Hara
- Dylan Tarpey
- Christian Stafford (6) - Pembroke
- Blaise Ferro (7) – CBA
- Trevor Hooper (8) - Ridgefield
- Colin Tierney (9) – BH
- Nick Carleo (10)
- Jaxson Hoey (11) -
- Thomas Rooney (12) -CBA
- Nick Smart (13) – O’Hara
Team Scores:
Brothers TC (2, 7, 12, 23, 34) = 78
Warriors TC (1, 3, 17, 29, 37) = 87
O’Hara TC (5, 13, 20, 30, 40) = 108
Black Friar XC Club (Malvern Prep) (11, 28, 32, 43, 48) =
162
I’m not even close to being final on any of these results. I
don’t know who will be in the meet just yet, and there are still a few big
races to go (2 more week of NJ racing along with the Massachusetts State
Championships which is this coming weekend). We’ve also got the Singer Farm’s
race this weekend where Henderson, O’Hara, Malvern Prep and some other great
runners will be going at it. That will give me a better idea of where MP is at
right now. Both Hoey’s can race at NXN which is awesome and they’ve had this as
a goal all season. They haven’t had to taper for meets like states.
So again, if someone can help get me a List of who signed up
for the meet that’d be fantastic along with info if NA will be attending or
not.
FL Updated Info-
Totally Missed the MIAA Eastern and Western State Meets. They'll be coming together next
weekend.
Paul Hogan has bean on a tear this season and crushed the course record in a time of 15:08. He'll be attending FL and should be a shoe in for nationals.
Christian Stafford was 15:24 and was the 4th guy in for NXN last season and looks strong once again with the second overall time. He leads Pembroke and they'll be back at NXN.
Owen Gonser is another man going to FL who ran 15:27 for the 4th fastest time of the day. He should be able to mix it up.
Liam Garvey ran the second fastest time from the Western side of the state and he'll be attending FL as well. He doesn't have the track credentials, but he's run some quick times this XC season.
Quaroni is a prep school guy who you don't see a lot of and most times aren't on Milesplit, but he ran 15:49 earlier this year and crushed Jordan Comeau (16:17) who ran 4:14 for 1600 last season. Comeau will also be attending FL. The only guy Quaroni has lost to this season is another prep runner Mohamed Hussein, a young man who just two years ago came over to the US from Somalia. He has run some incredible times and grabbed CR's all season. Hussein sadly hasn't signed up for FL. I'll keep you guys updated on him, but it seems as though Quaroni could mix it up for a top 20 spot.
That's all For Now Folks!
--ForrestCRN
I don't know 100% what's up, but I know I saw Ethan Martin barely able to stand after states. Like, had to get helped away. May be why he isn't running.
ReplyDeleteIt's been Ethan Martin's Achilles... Also NA will not be attending Nike. Ongoing sickness with one of their top guys a big part of that
ReplyDeleteHow does it work to go to Nike nationals? Is it the top 3 teams at regionals or is it by invite? What about individuals?
ReplyDeletehttp://nxn.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?do=title&title_id=197&event_id=13
DeleteCopy and paste the above link in your browser for the answer to your questions.
Top 2 teams get an automatic bid, then across the country based off of rankings and other teams you've beaten 2 teams are chosen as the "wildcard" picks. Top 5 finishers from each region who are not on a team that has qualified will qualify. Ex: last year Tony, Reiny, and Boyle from CBA all were top 5 so the top 8 all went to NXN.
ReplyDeleteGot it, thanks. That's rough for the individuals.
DeleteBack to FL, you may want to add Chase Weaverling from Poolesville, MD to your list. He has won every race he ran and has a 15:20 5K to his record.
ReplyDeleteReiny placed 19th at states last year and then got 2nd to tony at regionals. He just got 5th in a very fast time and you expect him to get beaten by a guy who I'm pretty sure top 15 last year... No, that's not happening.
ReplyDeleteI'd put another WCH guy in the top 15. Knapp most likely. I think Reiny will be somewhere in the 5-9's and Knapp will follow and place 15th.
ReplyDeleteGood call with Chase Weaverling. He looks strong, but doesn't have very good track credentials. He did lost once his season, however it was to US #23 Louis Colson by 12 seconds. I think he can contend in that top 15 group.
ReplyDeleteAs for Reiny, I agree he's in much better shape and there is a very strong chance that Henderson goes 1-2 at regionals once again. Mike McClemens of CBA (who I have second) has run so very solid races this year, including a recent victory over Dylan Tarpey and Thomas O'Neill running 14:42 for 5k. Yes, it could very well be short, but he beat Tarpey by 6 seconds and O'Neill by 11, that's very good. He was close behind the lead pack at Reebok as well, and clearly gets better the longer the distance, as most CBA guys do. Don't sleep on him.
As for Knapp, I can feel that, Knapp has run well this season, I think putting him around 20th overall is a bit more reasonable.
http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251065-Saucony-Elite-50-2013-XC-Season/article/23328-Boys-HS-Team-Rankings-Week-9
Right now they have Pembroke over O'Hara! I'd love to know your thoughts, cause I don't see Pembroke having that firepower.
--ForrestCRN
If O'Hara is only 20 points behind Henderson and 30 points behind CBA, they probably get one of the bids. They need another great race from Smart and Belfatto has to step up a little. Reiny and Tony are clearly better longer distance guys. That Regional course suits them pretty nicely. For Henderson to contend at Nationals, their 4-7 have to step up their game. Moy, Collins and Stratman should be running better.
DeleteRoger Kaputnick is now entered.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about O'Hara. Their times at Great American and Bulldog, two insanely fast courses (and maybe short for Bulldog) are good, but Pembroke's 1-7 is better. 1-5 I think will take O'Hara's 1-5. For O'Hara to take third, they need Kevin James to be up there in the pack as well as Belfatto and Nick Smart bring up there as well. Smart is known to be inconsistent, but his last two races have been very solid. I'm not sure if their 4-5 are able to keep up with Pembroke's 4-5. Especially since one is a freshman. His first XC season is a very long one.
ReplyDeleteKnapp has shown unbelievable improvement this year, but I don't think he is top 15 at nationals. Maybe top 30, but top 15 would be incredible. Barchet on the other hand is definitely capable of getting 2nd (or first?). He shows up when it counts in track and xc.
Unionville is ranked 2nd in the country... that's definitely worthy of mention. Without their #3 in Emily Fisher though I don't think they will place that high. It's a shame too, they beat FM earlier in the year when Fisher was racing sick, maybe they can do it again? That would be absurd though. If Fisher raced at States Unionville would have had 4 in the top 10. Just an example of their dominance. Despite the rankings, I believe Unionville and Pennsbury will make it for the girls. Pennsbury only lost by 6 points at States against a handicapped Unionville, if they can keep it that close at NXN then they will punch their ticket into Nationals.
-RTJ
I think Forrest was talking about top 15 at Regionals, not Nationals for Knapp. Nor, does anyone think that Henderson will go 1-2 at Nationals. 2 in the top ten would not be a surprise though.
DeleteWord is that Fisher will be ready to go for Nationals. Fayetteville-Manlius is coming, but don't count out Unionville yet.
Doesn't New York (and FM) run a separate race at Nike?
DeleteI meant Regionals, sorry. I was in a rush writing this. I don't think Knapp will get top 15 for Regionals.
DeleteAs to FM and Unionville/Pennsbury, do not race in the same race, that was my bad. Nike Regionals is up in NY, but it's not the same race. I think Unionville will get the #1 spot and Pennsbury gets the #2 spot.
-RTJ
You said that knapp has shown "unbelievable improvement from last year", but you only put him in the top 30? He got 31 last year in his first XC season!
Delete1. Do you think Henderson has any shot at a national title? Top 5?
ReplyDelete2. If Russell wins NXN regionals where do you put him at all time greatest PA XC runners? What if he wins a national title?
If he gets top 5 or even top 10 at Nationals there is a heavy argument for Russell being the greatest ever.
DeleteI would agree
DeleteLet's look at his accolades:
DeleteNXN NE Regional Champion, once if not twice
2 time state individual champion
2 time state team champion
2 time district one champion
State course-record holder
Sub 15 in what should count as a course record (course lengthened post-09)
One Manhattan, I believe he's the fastest pa. Guy there ever.
So I'd say if he repeats regionals and places top 10 or 5 at nationals he's the greatest PA xc runner ever
Won Manhattan* wow I'm sorry.
DeleteYou have to put Craig Miller in there-3 x State Champion and top ten as a freshmen. Collapsed lung his senior year caused him to miss FL. He would have been a top 5 guy. Dan Coval at least a two time champion. Maybe, FL top 10. If Tony wins Regionals and is top 5 at NXN, he's certainly in the conversation with those 2 guys.
DeletePaul Springer?
DeleteSpringer never won a state title. And his time on Lehigh was when it was shorter.
DeleteCoval, Miller, Russell. Three guys in contention for PA's GOAT
DeleteYes, but he is the state record holder for both the 5K and 3200
DeletePaul Vandergrift!
DeleteSpringer was a great time trial runner, but a very poor racer tactically. Vandegrift-#1 on the track for sure-Not sure of his xc credentials. Miller-untouchable on the track in his era. Coval-great in xc-very good on the track. For Tony to break in the top 3, he'll have to do something special on the track this year. The other real stud was the McWilliams kid from Grove City who, I think finished in the top 5 at FL-He was a 2 time State AA Champ. He ran 14:59 at Lehigh in 1989 when the AAA champ(Bob Hamer from CR) ran 15:37.
DeleteJust for XC(before REgionals and Nationals)
1-Miller
2-McWilliams
3-Russell
4-Coval
5-Vandegrift
XC and Track
1-Vandegrift
2-Miller
3-McWilliams
4-Coval
5-Russell
McWilliams was 6th at FL as a Junior and 4th as a senior. Legit.
DeleteIf you're talking all-time PA distance, Coval and Russell are no where near top 5 on the track. There was Ken Lowrey and Blair Mancini back in the 80's, Eric Beam in the 70's. Magaha should be up there on his 800 and 1600 pr's alone. All were sub 4:10 milers.
DeleteWe're just talking xc and lowrey and mancini didn't repeat did they? Russell and Coval did.
DeleteI see an XC and Track list. Lowrey was a 4:05 miler, he should be 2nd on that list. Magaha won XC districts and set the state 800 record in a ridiculous 1:48, he should be on there. No offense to Russell but he doesn't have the track credentials, he's not even top 10. Mallon and Fowler would be ahead of him based on what they did on the track alone even if the ran JV XC.
DeleteRussell is definitely not in the top 5 all time for track. He has nice credentials, but as of now, he's not top 5. You're putting him in a category with state record holders. Russell isn't better than a lot of past PA runners and even a few present for that matter. Sure in the 3200 he has them beat, but in the mile/800 he does not have them beat. That being said, XC wise, he is 100% top 5 in my opinion. His sub 15 was absurd, 2x State champ is amazing, and potentially (and probably) 2x regional champ and national all american status. He's an XC monster but as of now I wouldn't say track. This season however he may very well prove that he does.
Delete-RTJ
Thanks RTJ. I (the poster of the original comment) don't think Russell is top 5 at all on the track, which is why I was trying to argue it as an xc thing, because after all it is a separate sport.
DeleteI mean, Russell isnt the best but he did run a 4:12 mile like 3 times and a 9:07 2 mile with a stress fracture the entire outdoor season.
DeleteIf he sat out Regionals and Nationals, Russell still definitely should be ranked among the best in PA XC ever. A two time D1 and state champion, in convincing fashion each time. He’s got some tough competition ahead but if healthy, he should do well among the best there is at regionals/nationals.
ReplyDeleteFor track, Russell has some outstanding performances but not yet among PA’s greatest. He really focused on the mile last year and ran some great races, but without the low 1:50’s 800 speed, he’s been outkicked quite a bit. And though a great pace runner, he has yet to be able to wear down the top competition at that mile distance. My guess is this year he focuses solely on the 3000 indoor and 3200 outdoors. Barring injury, I’d say there’s a strong chance he puts up performances that put him among the best ever on the track.
-RJJL
Totally agree. I think he should focus on the 3200
DeleteBut obviously he's Tony Russell so he dies what he wants.
DeleteI agree with the XC part 100%. For the track part... I wouldn't put him under the "best ever" category. Definitely the one of the "best ever at the 3200" category though. We have runners like Craig Miller (1:53, 4:06 full mile, 9:10 3200 (ran once competitively) who is just a BEAST at all 3 distances. That's the kind of times you need for the best ever. I definitely think he will go sub 9:05 in the 3200 though (at Henderson night invite). Barchet/Wilson may follow him into that category, let's not forget they were only a second behind Russell.
DeleteHow was the state course back in 07? It was still at Hershey and some of the people under "the best ever XC runners in PA history" have run some fast times on it. Neely Spence ran 18:06, so there had to be some degree of difficulty to it.
Just something to keep in mind: A split is not an open time.
RTJ
RJJL didn't put him in the "best ever" on the track, he said if focuses on the 3200 he could get there this year. Read before your respond RTJ.
DeleteCraig Miller (1:53, 4:06, 9:10)
DeleteZach Brehm (1:54, 4:09, 9:18)
Even after his sophomore year, he's challenging to be one of the best track runners in PA history. I would say his 800 was better than Miller's (although I didn't see Miller). 800 in the wind at states is at least 2 seconds slower than a normal state meet due to conditions
I think Russell is focused on the 1600/mile. I expect to see him go for that title for Indoors & probably try to get in to the Millrose Mile...maybe even Penn Relays mile?
DeleteIf RJJL Kelly says he's focusing on the 3200 why would you think otherwise?
DeleteHaha,I'll never tell.
DeleteI would say I'd have to agree about Millrose and indoor. That's almost every distance runner's dream and I expect to see Sam Ritz, Tony Russell, Zach Brehm, Kevin James, and Ethan Martin all go for it indoors. I think Russell and Brehm make it, especially if Russell trains through NXN and runs at the earliest armory meet (Dec.15th) which is two weeks after nationals.
Delete-RTJ
I can see Brehm getting it done and maybe even Moy. Russell will be interesting to see how his indoor season goes.
DeleteOkay, anonymous. I do read before I respond. I read, research, then respond. I'm saying unless he breaks the State record in his 3200, which I don't think will, I don't think he will be one of the best all around distance runners until he gets his open 1600/mile AND 800 down, like Craig Miller. Even if he breaks the State record, he won't be one of the best all around distance runners in PA, he will just be the best 3200 runner. He doesn't have the foot speed to get his 800 to low 1:50's and in the mile I don't think he will run it in a big enough meet to go that fast. Maybe in the distance festival, but I don't see him going too fast without that 800 speed. So I don't think he will get to the all around this year, but the one of the best 3200, maybe. He may even break the indoor state record. RJJL said, "Barring injury, I’d say there’s a strong chance he puts up performances that put him among the best ever on the track." That's what I'm disagreeing too.
ReplyDeleteSean I was thinking that exactly. I think Brehm will go down as the BEST distance track runner this state has ever seen by his senior year. The kid tripled a 9:18, 1:55, and 4:13, as a sophomore and by the end his PR's were 1:54, 4:09 (mile), and 9:18. I don't think anyone in the State is capable of doing that triple that he did. This year I'd like to see him hit 4:05 (mile), 1:51 (800), and 9:05 (3200). High expectations, but the kid is in much better XC shape and sophomore to junior year is a huge spike in time (see Magaha, Willig, Campbell, Wilson, Russell, etc). The list can continue for days. I'm not crazy, I don't think that 4:05 mile will come out of a PA race. I think he will either do that at nationals, the adidas grand prix, or maybe the distance festival (the elite 1500, then have the equiv of that mile [3:46.92 1500, 4:03.58 1600, 4:05.00 mile]). The 3200 I think at the Henderson invite and the 800 most likely at States. With that being said, I don't think he will get that much better senior year, maybe trim some time off the 800.
-RTJ
Agree @ Brehm. He had a very good XC season but mid-distance/track is clearly his strength and he is a beast. He may even be a sub 4 1600 guy before he graduates. Never know.
Deletehttp://pa.milesplit.com/meets/147011-deuce-at-singer-farm#.UofUZnm9Kc0 here are the results from the two mile race today at singer farm
ReplyDeleteThat's an impressive roster of runners out there today.
Delete