NX Northeast Preview

NXN Northeast Preview – Individual and Team along with National Implications

You can find the start list at: http://usa.milesplit.com/meets/147924/attachment/277886

 

Just a reminder that the top two teams automatically go along with the top 5 individuals, the team information will be explained further, later in this article.

1.       Tony Russell (1) – Warrior Track Club – Nats with Team

2.       Mike McClemens  (2) – Brothers TC – Nats with Team

3.       Reiny Barchet (3) – Warrior Track Club – Nats with Team

4.       Dylan Tarpey - UNA-NJ-Freehold – 1^st Individual

5.       Tom O’Neill (4) – Lions Track Club – 2^nd Individual

6.       Nick Carleo (5) – Maudslay Track Club – 3^rd Individual

7.       Griffin Molino – UNA-PA-DuBoistown – 4^th Individual

8.       Kevin James (6) – Cardinal O’Hara XC Club – Nats with Team? (If not last individual)

9.       Christian Stafford (7) – Titians Track Club – Nats with Team? (If no team but O’Hara goes he’s the last Individual in)

10.   Patrick Reilly -  UNA-PA-York – 5^th Individual? (Only if O’Hara and Titians TC make it)

11.   Jaxson Hoey (8) – Black Friar XC Club

12.   Michael Higgins (9) – Don Bosco Track Club

13.   Craig Corti (10) – Wallkill Valley Running

14.   Blaise Ferro (11) – Brothers TC

15.   Trevor Hooper (12) – Ridgefield

16.   Colin Tierney (13) – Hawks Track Club

17.   John Valeri (14) – Titans Track Club

18.   Nick Smart (15) – Cardinal O’Hara XC Club

19.   Aaron Gebhart – UNA-PA-New Oxford

20.   Kyle Levermore (16) – Don Bosco Track Club

Team Scores:

1.       Warriors Track Club (West Chester Henderson) (1, 3, 17, 29, 34) = 84

When I saw that Henderson was in front of CBA I was shocked, I’ll be honest. I can’t believe this is the way the results play out, especially with how strong CBA looked last weekend, but I have no doubt Barchet will show up and Russell will get the victory. This is clearly the best 1-2 punch in the region, if not the nation (Brentwood’s top 3 is fantastic). Behind them we see strong runners and Knapp has really taken it to the next level this season. Collins, Waltz, and Stratman have been exchanging for those last two spots all season which has made the 3 of them even better. After a lot of deliberation I think they can take down CBA.

2.       Brothers TC (Christian Brothers Academy) (2, 11, 18, 27, 31) = 89

This past weekend CBA ran an unbelievable race at Holmdel. They put on a 15:52 team average on a hilly course, which you couldn’t tell by the way they ran it. But then again, give Henderson an extra 3 weeks I bet their average would be around 16:05 or 16:00 for Hershey’s course.  Mike McClemens has taken it to the next level this season which is key for this team’s success. Behind him, sophomore Blaise Ferro has been running very well placing 8^th at MoC’s which is no joke. This squad just does not have the spread I had thought they would going into the start of the season. Tom Rooney isn’t running as well as he was last season, and their 4-5 guys haven’t performed as well as expected, especially Josh Kruppa (jr) who was a key piece for them last season. If he can have a bounce back race however they can win the region. 

3.       Cardinal O’Hara XC Club (Cardinal O’Hara) (6, 15, 19, 38, 43) = 121

This is a tough pick to make, since Cardinal O’Hara has a lot of shaky pieces. Nick Smart came up huge at the state meet, and if he can keep that up he’ll be big time for the squad. Jim Belfatto placed 26^th at states and I thought he would be a shoe in medalists. He will need to have a good day as well for them. Behind him freshman Ryan James has continued to get stronger this season, but will it prove to be too long for him? This score could be a bit inflated, but if they all race well it’s very possible. 

4.       Titians Track Club (Pembroke) (7, 14, 35, 39, 42) = 137

Pembroke’s squad has looked fantastic the past two weeks. They’ve got a strong 1-2 punch and a really nice spread with their 3-5 guys. The main issue this team has is that their 3-5 guys are just too far back to make them a big powerhouse. Christian Stafford and John Valeri have been on fire and Stafford has a great shot at making it to nationals as an individual. If just one of their 3-5 runners has a big day they can pass O’Hara, especially if Smart or Belfatto is off. 

5.       Don Bosco Track Club (Don Bosco Prep) – (9, 16, 25, 44, 50) = 144

Don Bosco started off the season very poorly. They totally fell off the radar, but this squad is really coming together at the right time. After placing 2^nd at the NJ Meet of Champions with a very good 16:12 average I think they’ve taken the right steps to be successful. Higgins looks great and Levermore has gotten better every meet since returning from injury. His place may be a bit high, but I think this 8:55 3200 guy can step it up for his team. 

6.       Black Friar XC Club (Malvern Prep) (8, 28, 30, 45, 47) = 158

The Hoey twins should be the top guys on this squad and they’ve all been running very well. I think they ran the best out of all teams at the Singer Farms invitational. Jaxson Hoey is an animal of a sophomore and if he runs as well as he did for that two mile race, he could very well snag himself a nationals spot. His younger brother has made some great progress as just an 8^th grader and he should be right with Billy McDevitt who beat out Alex Knapp at that race. I think Knapp has far more in him, but McDevitt has gotten much better. They also have a decent 4-5 and they should place quite well at this meet.

Before I get to team scoring, I would like to note a few things about making it to nationals as a team. Here is the official procedure from the NXN website: NXN Information:

“Automatic qualifiers into Nike Cross Nationals from the NXN Regionals: The top two placing clubs in each gender of the Championship Division race at each NXN regional will earn automatic berths to NXN in Portland. Additionally, the top five placing individuals who are not on automatically placing clubs will advance to NXN as individual qualifiers.

At-Large qualifiers into Nike Cross Nationals from the NXN Regionals: A total of four at-large club berths per gender will be awarded. Clubs placing either third or fourth in the Championship Division race at each NXN regional will move into a pool of clubs receiving consideration for advancing to NXN as an at-large qualifier. A committee of experts will determine the at-large qualifiers.

STATES INCLUDED
NJ - PA - CT - MA - ME - VT - RI – NH”


The main piece I would like to analyze is the “At-Large” qualifiers. There are 4 given to boys clubs across the nation. The Northeast, California, and New York are the last regional races to occur, which is good for prediction purposes. Here are the top 4 teams from each regional race that have occurred already along with their ranking in the nation at the start of the year and current ranking. The start of the year ranking will be from Dyestat’s list of 120 teams, and then current rankings will come from Saucony’s list that is sponsored by Flotrack. It seems from previous years that such rankings are taken into account by the “experts” who determine the At-Large bids. Of course this is speculation, but I will attempt to figure out who will go from the NE based on president, my team prediction scores, and how other teams have done!  First we will look at the 3 meets this weekend and their chances of getting an At-Large Bid… or two.

California State Meet:
This meet has not happened yet, but it has US #3 Arcadia, US#6 Brea Olinda, and US#9 Madera South along with 6 other teams on the Saucony Watch List. California, like New York, is treated as a “region” so they send two teams automatically. With 3 teams in the top 10 of the rankings, I think it fairly safe to say California will get one of these 4 bids, leaving only three left.

New York State Meet:
This meet also has not happened, but it is featuring US #5 Fayetteville-Manlius, US #12 Liverpool, and US#24 Northport along with one bubble team in Saratoga Springs who has been ranked in the top 25 a few times this season. New York has a very good chance of sending one team with an At-Large bid if Northport of Saratoga Springs can get close to Liverpool in points during the race.

Northeast Regional Meet:
This meet is the focus of the article and you can see the predicted scores later in the article, but this space will be used to look at this meet like I have with the other regional meets. The Northeast regional seems to be the strongest in the nation right now. CBA (Christian Brothers Academy) has been ranked #1 nearly all season, and they just ran a team average of 10 seconds faster than they did during their national win a few years ago on Holmdel’s course. Behind them West Chester Henderson is ranked US#11 and started off the season as US#5. They have not raced a 5k since the state meet over 3 weeks ago, and I believe they will move into the top 7 after the race. Behind them is US#16 Pembroke, US#17 North Allegheny, and US#20 Cardinal O’Hara. I don’t believe any other region has 5 ranked teams in the top 20, which gives the Northeast an advantage when it comes to At-Large bids. North Allegheny will not be attending the regional meet due to injury and sickness, but their ranking gives a boost to Pembroke and O’Hara. I would have to imagine the Northeast gets one, if not two, bids to the national championships, especially if they all race well.

Southeast Regional Meet:
This region is also stacked, like the Northeast with some amazing teams. Lead by US#7 Brentwood, US#12 Liverpool, and US #23 St. Xavier (KY). They also have two teams on the watch list in Tatnall, who was on the top 25 list for a few weeks, and Severna Park from Maryland. (Yes, Maryland teams go to Southeast and individuals to Northeast, I do not understand that one, but Footlocker and Nike chalk up regions differently). They’ve got a good chance as well for sending an extra team, especially if St. Xavier runs a very strong race. Tatnall has an impressive 8^th grader that they’ve been racing now who will help the team out and Severna Park is no joke. They very well could send two teams. There is a wonderful article about the regional race: http://va.milesplit.com/articles/116829-nxn-southeast-regional-pre-meet-team-rankings-preview#.UpVQTuKAdEk

Now let’s take some time to look at the regional meets that have already occurred:

Southwest Regional Meet:
This meet was dominated by US#2 American Fork (111) and the second auto-qualifier was grabbed by unranked Davis (164). Behind them were the Vista Nation and All Tiger XC Clubs with a score of 209 points. US #22 CDS XC placed a surprising 6^th with 242 points after moving into the top 25 for the first time last week. When the new rankings come out it seems as though Davis will take that top 25 spot, but I don’t believe either of the teams behind them will grab an At-Large bid however.

South Regional Meet:
Southlake Carroll was ranked 9^th going into the season, but has recently fallen out of the top 25. They claimed victory over the region however with a score of 90 points. Bubble team College Park placed 4^th with 146 points. The second auto-qualifier was snatched up by the Hebron Cross Country Club who beat out The Woodlands XC club by 8 points. I think Southlake Carroll’s victory will move them into the top 25, but the region is not strong enough to send another team to nationals.

Midwest Regional Meet:

US#10 Carmel and US#14 St. Xavier (OH) went at it in the Midwest regional, with Carmel coming out on top with 103 points to St. Xavier’s 120. St. Xavier had a better team average along with the winner in Evan Stifel. Behind them was Hinsdale Central with 200 points and Columbus North with 208. To me it seems as though the point different would be too much, but Hinsdale Central was recently ranked US#19 by Saucony and Columbus North was put on the Watch List. Before that meet Hinsdale was ranked 10^th in the nation and York (7^th in the region) was ranked 13^th. This region has gotten a lot of love from the national rankings this season and it is feasible that Hinsdale Central and Columbus North get pushed into the national meet because of it.

Northwest Regional Meet:

US #4 Gig Harbor ran very well with a 37 second spread and 70 points, beating out 3 other ranked squads. Runner-up was US#8 North Central with 114 points, followed by US#15 Central Catholic (140) (moved up one spot) and US#25 Nathan Hale (157). Central Catholic has been ranked around 15^th all season and I would be shocked if they didn’t get one of the 4 bids. Between them and California those, in my opinion, are locked At-Large spots.

Heartland Regional Meet:

US#18 Edina claimed victory over US#21 Wayzata with scores of 106 to 135. They both averaged 16:07 on the Heartland layout, but a 25 second spread helped Edina get the win. Behind them were Stillwater Area (204) and Manhattan High School (205). Neither team is on the watch list, so it seems safe to make the claim that neither team will get an At-Large bid.

Summary:

It seems that California (3 teams in the top 10) will send one team at large and Central Catholic (Northwest) has a very strong chance of being sent as well. Hindsdale Catholic (US#19 -Midwest) also has a very strong shot at grabbing a bid. Recently ranked US#25 Nathan Hale (Northwest) could also sneak in, as could US#24 Northport if they have a strong race this weekend. The Northeast is setting itself up to potentially send two teams in US#17 Pembroke and US#20 Cardinal O’Hara. The Southeast Regional is also very strong with US#23 St. Xavier being the 3^rd place team with two strong Watch List teams behind them. This weekend will determine a lot, but it seems as though 10 teams will be fighting for those last 4 spots when all is said and done. Seven of those teams will race this weekend.

--ForrestCRN