BUT on my study break I was able to finish a quick write up on the NJ MoC's along with a write up on who I believe are the 15 most likely guys to make it to FL Nationals (in order of most likely to make it). After my exam (Monday @ 2pm) and handing in a 7 pg paper Tuesday (@4 pm) I will finally be on "break". I will come out with a preview for NXN either Tuesday night, but more likely is Wednesday. I will also be trying to use the break to catch up on the journals as well. This being said I have a take home exam and 10 page paper due the Monday I get back to school. (Where I will have two weeks left). After I'm done school on the 13th I will be putting up tons of previews looking towards the winter season. I know it's late and I apologize again for that, but as a history/religion studies double major I get hounded with paper and research at the end of each semester.
NJ MoC’s
CBA looks unbelievable, running with a 15:52 team average!! Sub 16 average has never happened before on this course, even when they won Nat’s a few years back they were 16:02. It’ll take a huge effort for Henderson to beat them. Mike McClemens looked great for them winning in 15:26.
NXN – McClemens (1st), Tarpey
(2nd), Higgins (6th), Corti (7th), Ferro (8th),
O’Neil (10th)
FL – Corgliano (3rd),
Kroon (4th), Maine (5th), Hanko (9th)
I’m not going to make an order of
who will be 1-10 for the FL meet, because it’s really a toss-up in my mind, but
this list is based on my belief in their chance of making it to San Diego. So
#1 has a better chance of making it than #10. I won’t do % or anything, but
they each have a write up on accomplishments and why I believe they’ve got a
shot at making it.
Alvarado is the top guy on this
list for many reasons. 1) He’s the #2 returner from last season (8th).
2) His coach has sent the most guys to FL from any region in the past 15 years
aka he will peak perfectly. 3) He’s an animal on the hills. Every hilly race he
has performed well and won. 4) He was 3rd at Penn Relays 3k last
season in 8:26. He’s got a kick as well. Not sure what else there is too say.
This may come as a surprise to
have Abert at number two, but the kid is a gamer. Abert loves to go out hard,
but he also closes better than just about anyone I’ve seen. No question he’ll
be in the mix (aka top 15) with 800 to go, and on this course you can flat out
roll. No question Abert grabs a spot in my mind.
Kroon placed 5th last
season (top returner) and just placed 4th in the MoC’s for NJ. Kroon
has had some very solid races this season and always mixes it up out front. I
think he’s had his eyes on nationals this season after going last year and will
be peaking for that, not MoC’s. I have no doubt this will be his best race of
the season up until nationals.
Hogan didn’t race very well last
year, but he got the experience, making him a better candidate for this season.
He was undefeated until All-States where he lost to junior phenom Carleo(will
be at NXN). It was a very fast course and only 2.9 miles, which disadvantages
the strength of Hogan. He’s that much better over 5k and hills benefit him. No
doubt he’ll be in the running to win in the last 800, but may lose some ground.
He shouldn’t lose enough to not make the top 10 however.
Hanko didn’t have his best race
this past weekend, placing 9th at MoC’s. He’s the 3rd best returner after
placing 14th last season. He’s got a very strong kick which makes
him almost a lock to go. I originally had him at #3, but I switched him and
Kroon after thinking about it a bit more. He’s ran some awesome times this
season, but Kroon’s nationals focus is what gives him an edge. Don’t sleep on
Hanko for the win however.
Wilson has had a very solid, but
long season. I think this break from racing will show dividents with Wilson
running very well. Coach Marrington has sent the second most runners to FL in
the past 15 years (behind Alvarado’s Coach) so you know Wilson will peak well.
He’s very strong and should be mixing it up with 800 to go. It’s hilly, which
helps Wilson out, but the last 800, like Hogan he’ll lose a bit of ground. I
don’t think that he’ll fall out of the top 10 however.
Another change after the MoC’s, I
had Corgliano at #9, but after a superb race for 3rd at MoC’s I had
to move him up. Corgliano has raced very well all season and is peaking at the
right time. He just has to carry that peak one more week, which isn’t too hard
to do. I think he has a very good shot at sliding into the national meet.
Deluca isn’t necessarily the 8th
best guy in the field, but he’s got one major advantage over most guys on the
starting line: This is his only true test of the season. Most top guys had big
state meets coming before this, but Deluca didn’t need to taper at all, giving
him extra steady training through October and November. Plus it’s the only race
on his mind. I think this mental edge is key, and Deluca will come through to
grab that spot. He’s a great hill runner as shown with that 15:43 earlier this
season at PTXC.
Ostberg is the second junior on
this list, and usually two to three juniors grab spots to the national meet. He
placed 2nd at New Englands to Hopper and lost to Alverado and Hopper
at the CT state meet. He will be mixing it up with this top group and has an
excellent chance of making. He runs both flats and hills well.
Bit shaky as well with this one,
but Maine seems to be peaking very well after a 5th place
performance at MoC’s. He hasn’t had killer meets this season, but peaking well
will do it for you, getting into this meet. His running level, in my opinion,
is around 13-15 on this list, but if he’s peaking better than those guys, he
gets the edge for me.
Chris has the talent level of top
7 on this list, no question in my mind. If this were a week after states and a
big goal of his, I would say he’s almost a lock for FL, but he’s 11th
on this list and here is why: C. Kazanjian, to my knowledge, didn’t have this
as a big goal going into the season. He ran very well at districts and states,
but it’s tough to extend ones season an extra month when it wasn’t a goal since
the beginning of the season. I think
this puts both Kazanjian’s at a disadvantage mentally, which is why I don’t
have him in the top 10.
Weaverling has put together some
really nice wins this season over weak Maryland competition and has only one
lost to Louis Colson of Virginia, who just won his state meet by 30 seconds!
Weaverling heald with him till the last 800. We haven’t seen a lot from this
kid, and this may not be his true place, but Wearverling is my dark horse at
number 12.
It’s tough to put Andrews here
after an excellent 3rd place finish at New England’s. He beat my #1
guy on this list in Alvarado, but I think that was his peak and he won’t be
able to put it together at this meet. He placed a very solid 22nd
last year however, so I think he’s got a great shot at making that top 10.
Colin Martin has had a fantastic
season so far and I’ve really liked the races he’s put together. I don’t know
if he’ll have enough to compete with some of these top tier guys at regionals
to make it to Nat’s. He’s lost his training partner again which will have made
this past month even tougher for him. That being said, he is a very strong
runner and the course should benefit him. He’s got good odds.
Gonser has really impressed me
this season, including a solo’d 15:24 effort at MIAA Eastern’s, but talent wise
he’s not at the top of this list. It’s a very talented field and I think he’ll
have a tough time making it, that being said he’s still got a good shot going
into the race.
--ForrestCRN
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