I wanted to start with a few things:
1. I will put up some polls later in the day for you guys to vote. I apologize for not doing that earlier in the week. It slipped my mind and I've been so busy.
2. Great posting so far guys! Keep up the appropriateness. I love all the predictions.
3. In terms of best in state history, I will be making a variety of categories after the Henderson Distance Festival and we'll have some voting polls, ect. I'll give more explanation of all of that later, but it should be a fun summer thing for us to do while I also put up XC predictions :)
4. Anyone interested in working for the blog I will be contacting you next week so shoot me another e-mail. I apologize for not responding sooner. I had finals and this conference, but I'll finally have a bit more free time and I'm going to start delegating articles and discuss how we can all work together to make this blog better for everyone. Any other suggestions as well are always welcome!
5. Best of luck to everyone at the state meet! I hope everyone can drops some PR's and have fun! It's a great meet to be at and all of you deserve to be there. It's been an amazing season to watch.
The 3200 is really exciting as we have one of the strongest fields in state history. Keepan eye on the state record by XC legend Mike Connelly and the time is 8:58.90. I have no doubt Tony Russell has his sights on this state record, and I’m slightly surprised that he isn’t only running the 3200 in order to get it, although the 1600m prelims won’t affect him that much. I have this feeling that Colin Martin is just itching to break out again. Indoors he dropped a 9:13 2 miles before his 8:30 state win. He’s got a huge kick and should be a big threat to the strength of the 3-4 finishers from XC in Ross Wilson and Kevin James. Both guys have added a lot of speed-oriented strength this outdoor season and they may not have a pure kick they should be able to push it from 1k out with Russell. Barchet has also been running very strong this outdoor season and we can’t forget about D3 XC champ Patrick Reilly who could have a big meet off of a fast pace. And saving the biggest contender for last is the breakout star of this outdoor season – Dominic Deluca. He ran an absolutely killer 8:21 3k at Penn Relays to beat Wilson and he solo’d a 9:03 at his district me! Are you kidding me??
I have faith that this state meet record will go down. Russell has already run an 8:57 equivalent and
Wilson has run a 9:01 equivalent. Those combine with Deluca’s 8:21 and Colin Martin and Kevin James killer outdoor seasons and strong potential I have faith in this field to really bring us one of the most exciting races of the season.
How will this race play out? I think it goes out hard in ~4:28-4:32. These guys won’t let the pace slow too much. There are so many big personalities in this race and I do not believe these guys will let it get slow. Deluca tried to do it at Henderson and he paid the price big time for trying to change the tempo. His 9:03 shows me he’s ready to roll from up front and bring a blistering pace. It’s his best chance to win, but the same goes for Wilson. But is there a pace Russell can’t handle? He’s got the best distance chops out of the group, the best 1600m PR, the top 800m PR and he can go hard from the start and he can bring it home in the last 1k better than anyone else. Maybe the last 200 he could be broken, but will there be anyone there to contend?
These questions will all be answered on Saturday morning, but here are my time predictions:
1. Russell – 8:56.23
2. Deluca – 8:58.89
3. Wilson – 8:59.03
4. Barchet – 9:02.34
5. Martin – 9:04.74
6. James – 9:05.11
7. Groh – 9:09. 48
8. Webb – 9:10.84
9. Comber – 9:12.67
10. Mcgoey – 9:13.58
With a hard pace at the beginning by Deluca, Russell will be able to sit in. He will take over right after the Mile, similar to the Henderson meet, and the pace will slowly increase for the rest of the meet. Wilson will attempt to follow, something he did not do well at Henderson, but it will cost him at the end of the race, although he will break 9 in a valiant effort. I think Deluca will be strong enough to bring it back and beat him out. Barchet will sit off the pace with Martin and James and with his new found closing speed he closes in 1:31 over the last 600 for a strong 4th. Martin and James will battle in the last 200m with Martin getting the best of James. Webb will attempt to run with this pack and he will pay for it, much like Wilson. I think Groh will run a very smart race going out in 4:35 and he will come back with a similar pace. He could even negative split. I’m a huge Groh fan, so maybe this is an over-estimation of his tactics and ability, but I fully believe in him to grab a medal. Comber and Mcgoey will miss out on medaling, but will drop some great PR’s running with Groh.
--ForrestCRN
Russell 8:59
ReplyDeleteDeluca 9:03
Wilson 9:04
Martin 9:06
James 9:07
Barchet 9:08
Reiley 9:14
Kazajian 9:15
3200 – This is a very talented field, with at least 5 guys capable of breaking 9:00. The weather is looking good, perfect for going low. I’m also expecting a record time, this should be the premier distance race of the meet.
ReplyDeleteEveryone in this field is beatable, but it’s hard to pick anyone other than Russell for the win. For as good a miler as Russell has become, the 3200 is probably still better suited for him. And even with the target on his back, I can’t see anyone beating him at this distance. Russell’s outdoor season has actually been relatively limited so far. He really hasn’t been pushed an entire race since the Millrose Games so his best may be yet to come. I would have rather seen him in the 1600 – 4x800 just because it’s a better chance for double state gold, but he has the opportunity here for a heck of an achievement with this 3200/1600 double.
I wouldn’t know what to tell a Wilson, Martin or DeLuca strategy wise. If they take the initiative and take it out hard it benefits Russell to have someone do the pace work. If they hang back on his shoulder it benefits Russell, as he is comfortable front running and down the stretch they’re facing 1:54-800 speed (at least). Even if someone has a huge day and drops say 8 seconds, to 8:56 or so, it’s probably not enough. I’m guessing a hard race from the start, with Russell going after it, pushing it early, pulling the whole field and gutsy DeLuca, Martin and Wilson matching him but ultimately being worn down. Barchet is also capable of finishing high, even winning. It’s a nice benefit for Russell/Barchet to be in the race together, warm up, out on the infield, on the starting line with a teammate. Ultimately I’m predicting a very strong race, with a few guys breaking the meet record but not getting gold, and the whole field being pulled in a fast pace.
Russell – 8:53
Wilson – 8:57
DeLuca – 8:58
Martin – 9:03
Barchet – 9:05
Groh – 9:09
James – 9:10
Webb – 9:11
- RJJL
State record has not been broken on over 30 years and there haven been quite a number of great runners since that time. With the exception of Russell, i dont see any other runner running below that.
ReplyDeleteMeet record is what everyone is talking about.
DeleteTop 20
ReplyDelete1. Russell - 8:55
2. DeLuca - 8:58
3. Wilson - 9:00
4. Martin - 9:03
5. James - 9:06
6. Groh - 9:08.6
7. Barchet - 9:08.7
8. Webb - 9:10
9. Kennedy - 9:12
10. McGoey - 9:16
11. Comber - 9:17
12. Kazanjian - 9:17
13. Gebhart - 9:18
14. Reilly - 9:18
15. Marston - 9:20
16. Wakeley - 9:22
17. Balla - 9:24
18. Tidball - 9:25
19. Regan - 9:29
20. Wharrey - 9:31
Wilson and Russell will go out too hard and Martin will break the field.
ReplyDeleteMartin 8:57
DeLuca 9:05
Barchet 9:06
James 9:07
Russell 9:10
Wilson 9:14
Webb 9:16
Groh 9:17
1600 – This should be a very close race down the stretch. I’m going with Russell pulling off the double. I’m not quite as reluctant as Etrain to predict it, but it’s still a tall order to take gold in both 3200/1600. Last year in indoor he went mile/3000 and I remember saying the competition is so good that there’s a big risk of being disappointed in both. But this year he’s been a completely different runner at a different level and quite frankly, there’s no one on the 1600 scene who has run near him so far, he’s got 7 seconds on the field, which is huge.
ReplyDeleteHe should be facing a fresh Belfatto, Caldwell, Van Kooten, Brehm and Abert. Belfatto has that great mile split from indoor but hasn’t matched it yet, though I’d expect him to get close to it. Caldwell is going 1600 only so should be looking to be in the mix. I like the way Holm is improving every week too. However, the most dangerous of the group is probably Brehm. I don’t know where he’s been all year but he certainly appears to be back. He may have his mind set on defending the 800 but if he’s focused on this race, he may have the best shot at winning it over Russell. These guys are also speedsters so Russell probably needs to take this through 1200 in about 3:09 or better to wear them down. Anything over 3:11 and he’ll likely be facing a very motivated closer who was enjoying breakfast while the 3200 was going down.
Russell – 4:10.5
Brehm – 4:12.5
Belfatto – 4:14.3
Caldwell – 4:14.5
Van Kooten – 4:15.6
Abert – 4:16.1
Holm – 4:16.5
Barchet – 4:18.3
- RJJL