Heat Predictions: AAA State Meet

 4x800

Out of the first heat the race should be centered around State College and Henderson. SC will be running Alex Milligan again in the 4x8, but only in the pre-lims. They ran 7:49 without Cather and they should be fine making it to the finals with Henderson. Pennsbury has a really solid team with no doubler’s on the first day and I have no doubt they make it in as well. The last 3 spots will be fought out by Altoona, Bensalem, and Penncrest. I don’t think Penncrest will go faster than 7:55, so they’re out. If the race gets slowed down at all Bensalem has the best chance, of the slower teams, of making it in, with Francis on the anchor. Things still haven’t come together for him, but a 1:54 anchor at minimum could get them in if they only need to run ~7:54. If it gets fast it benefits Altoona more, but they haven’t been running very smart this season (Stroh going out in 62 at districts is an example), but this means they can also go faster. I saw they will make it in. I think Cedar Crest is the 13^th team.

To recap out of Heat 1: State College, Henderson, Pennsbury, and Altoona on the Auto-Q. Bensalem and Penncrest get in on time.

Heat 2: The teams aren’t nearly as fast in this heat, and Pennridge won’t make it fast, which will be similar to districts. Pennridge will get in no questions asked. Logue knows he just needs to be top 4 and will make that happen as he is the best anchor in the field. O’Hara ran a total ‘B’ team at 8:05 in the district meet. Do they get the best of us and go after the 4x8 at states? They could very well do this, and if so they make it into the finals, but I doubt they will. It seems they are very focused on the individuals medaling, so I will leave them out of this. CB East and North Penn have been running very strong this season and I have no doubt both of them will get in. This leaves a few teams to fight it out, much like in the first heat. Zach Brehm quadrupled at districts, and he might triple at the state meet, which I think is a terrible idea for him. He only went for the win at his district meet and off of a slower pace with his team in it, he might go for it. I think he could get his team a spot. Indiana Area came out of nowhere in my opinion, but they’ve got no individuals in other events, so they can really go all out and I believe they will make the 4^th and final auto-Q spot. Seneca Valley might have been better putting all of their eggs in the 4x8 basket, because although Kolor and Foster are strong runners, they have not yet made it to the next level to make it into the finals as individuals. Even so, this team should make it to the finals.

To recap out of Heat 2: Pennridge, CB East, North Penn, and Indiana Area on the Auto-Q. Seneca Valley and Carlisle in on time. Boyertown will just miss.

1600m

Heat 1: Van Kooten dropped a bomb at districts in a huge down pour. He peaks so well and he will make it to the finals and should be seen as a shoe-in for a top 5 finish. Billy Caldwell choose the Mile over the 800, which is a great choice for him. The race shouldn’t be too fast in the pre-lims and he’ll make it in easily. He has the best PR of the field other than Brehm and the two of them should control the field and float into the finals. Reiny Barchet did choose the double which surprises me, but he closed in 60.2 at districts in the pre-lims and this gives me confidence in him to join them. I know it’s cheesy to pick the top 4 guys in the heat, but they’re above the rest of this field. I m a fan of the sophomores in this heat, Kravitz and Kolor, but I’m not sure if they’re strong enough yet to deal with these guys. Connor Holm proved me wrong in the finals out of district one and he should be able to challenge to make it in on time. Matt Brown ran 4:20 earlier this season and he should be watched as well as a sleeper to make it into the finals (his seed time is only 4:30)

Recap: Auto-Q’s: Van Kooten, Caldwell, Brehm, and Barchet with Holm and Brown in on time. 

Heat 2: I’m really happy to see Colin Abert back and rolling. He solo’ed a 4:18 and I bet he’s got a 4:15 in him to pop out at the finals. He just needs to run a smart pre-lim. This is a rarity for him, but he has gotten much better at it and he should make finals, although if he doesn’t don’t be too shocked. Russell is the clear leader in the state over 1600m and with his new found speed he should float into the finals. Jim Belfatto is a baller and should be joining Russell by easing his way into the finals. This leaves a few spots left and I think this heat will be the faster of the two, which will get a few extra qualifiers in. Nathan Sloan is a really smart runner and has had a very solid season. I bet he grabs that last Auto-Q. Behind him Ryan Grace will be coming off the double, but he ran 4 events at districts and had no issues and I believe that he’ll be the first q into the finals. Gunnar Sjoreen has shown great composure this season and he’s improved at such a high rate. If this continues he could run 4:17 in the finals, or will he blow up? I believe in the process he has made the ‘Stoga kids have really impressed me. Not sure who their coach is, but props to him. Put Sjoreen on that q list. I think this race will be just as fast as the heat before it, and I’m shocked Gebhart is trying the double. I want to believe he’ll make it, but I just don’t see it happening even though I love the kid.

Recap: Auto-Q’s: Russell, Belfatto, Abert, and Sloan with Grace and Sjoreen making it in on time.

 800m

Heat 1: I was shocked by the 800m out of district 7 for multiple reasons. I thought Smith would go after the 1600 after his big races in the even this season, but a low 1:53 is really solid. Secondly Elias Graca dropped an absolute bomb, breaking 1:54! That’s a huge PR and I doubt it was a joke of a race. Fox Chapel coaches are fantastic and I think he can repeat the performance. Lastly Wilhoite didn’t do nearly as well as I had hoped. He hit 1:54.31, but still I was thinking he could be a 1:52 guy. Do not forget Logue is in this heat. He got himself the best position by far and he should easily make it into the finals. He got very lucky with his pre-lim positions. I think the last spot will go to Wilhoite. He’s a smart racer and I love the program over at Penn Hills and you guys know how much I love history. The heat should be fast enough thanks to James that one other guy gets in, and I believe that’s Cruise of Cedar Crest. His team shouldn’t have much of a chance making the finals in the 4x8 and if he does run the even I think he goes like 2 flat and chills out because they won’t have much of a chance. This will provide him with the ability to drop a PR of 1:54 high and make the finals. If he does go hard in the 4x8 then I do not believe he’ll make it in. 

Recap: Auto-Q’s – Logue, Smith, Graca, and Wilhoite with Cruise making it in on time.

Heat 2: This is the loaded heat. Cather and Smart didn’t have to go hard at districts and they get stuck in a heat with Wiseman, Francis and Brehm. Not to mention the new 1:53 man Austin Cooper and Dave Garton who has dropped a 1:54.02 earlier this season. That’s 7 guys who can run under 1:54 in a heat… what the heck?? I really don’t know what else to say about the guys in this heat other than the fact that they’re animals chomping at the bit. They’ll be ready to roll and if it goes cleanly all 7 should easily make it into the finals. Sauer and Mecardo will be on the double and I think this keeps them from grabbing the last q spot in this fast heat.

Recap: Auto-Q’s – Wiseman, Brehm, Smart and Cooper with Cather, Garton and Francis in on time.