Henderson Distance Festival Preview!

There is a lot to talk about in terms of this meet, so for tonight I’m going to put up previews of the big races. I’ll go back and look over the Mixed Races tomorrow and put up the preview before the meet goes off.

In the Men’s 1500m Elite Run

When it says Men’s Elite Run, boy there are some Elite runners racing: Travis Mahoney, Kyle Merber, and Owen Dawson. Also some other PA-alum runners including Phil Celona, Vince Perozze, Nick Scarpello, Lyle Wister, and Ed Donnelly. (Sorry for anyone I missed!)

These PA Alumni will be joined by two current PA high schoolers’ – Zach Brehm (Jr.) and Jaxson Hoey (So.). Today on pa.milesplit.com I got in a great discussion about the top 1500m time of All-Time at the state level and it seems like it 3:49.67 by Paul Vandergrift in his Penn Relays win back in 1987. Zach Brehm is put down at 3:49 and Hoey is at 3:51… 

I did my best to use conversion factors from 1600 to the 1500 in order to predict these results:

The pace will go out hard, of that I have no doubt, and by bets are on Kyle Merber to win the race despite his recent struggles, but enough of that, back to Brehm. He can quadruple well and proved his strength at the state meet. A race going out fast actually benefits Brehm. I think the fastest he can run over 1600m is 4:06.80, which gives him a conversion of 3:49.89, just off of Vandegrift’s record. I’m a huge believer in Brehm, but I predict Brehm run’s 3:50.12. And I really have a bad feeling about doing that, ugh. 

Now, onto our youngster Jaxson Hoey. I love that he’s going for it and entering the Elite section. He always tries to hold onto fast paces and I give him a lot of credit for that. Fearless racing is awesome, but I believe he’s just a bit over his head on this one. I think he could run 4:11 for a full Mile, which gives him a 3:52.48 1500m conversion. I think he’ll go after a fast pace too early and it will hurt him in the end and I see him falling back and running around 3:58. In a race paced more towards his needs I think he could run a 3:52. 

Boys 1 Mile Run Elite

Oh Boy am I excited about this Mile! There are a ton of great races, although I am sad to see that Billy Caldwell will not be competing this year. I’m not really sure where to start, but I will say that I bet the race goes out hard; most likely there will be a pacer.

Sam Ritz had his big race here last season, but I do not foresee him running the same time again this season. He has been very solid all-around however and I think he’ll be top 3. He’s how I see the rankings playing out (in PA order)

1. Kevin James – 4:10.97 – I really loved his 9:03 and he’s got a 3:04 1200 to his name. With that type of speed/strength combination I think he’s got what it takes to win this race and drop a huge PR. He rarely runs the 16/Mile distance and I think it’s time he kills it. 

2. Sam Ritz – 4:11.23—Ritz ran so well at the end of last season and he’s run some very strong races against Hoey, so I have to believe he’s in top notch shape. I think James will get the best of him, however.

3. William Cather – 4:12.76 – Will Cather has had an amazing season. He’s an XC medalist and he’s running 1:52.2 splits on 4x8’s and looking relaxed doing it. Cather has not run the Mile too often this outdoor season, but he did solo a 4:17 on the double. I think he’s got great potential and if he sticks in the top 6 I think he’ll be able to kick home over the chase pack. 

4. Jim Belfatto – 4:12.90– He did not have a great states race, but I do still believe he’s got a few more great races in him during his high school career. He’s run 4:11 splits and had a solid triple at Delco’s that I did not forget about. I think he’s got a lot more in him and he shows it here, but gets kicked down by Cather in the final meters, putting him at 4^th.

5. Reiny Barchet – 4:14.50 – Yes, I think Barchet is going to have a killer race and is almost in it until he last 300m. Barchet has dropped 60 second last 400m en-route to run a 4:16. He’s got way more speed than I’ve ever seen before and his 2 mile time shows he can hang with a pace. I think he sticks in there and finishes well.

6. Eric Stratman – 4:16.84 -- Stratman had a killer 4x8 split at states (1:55.8) and he was a 4:19 miler last season. He’s been solid all season long and I think he has his second big PR in a row.

7. Kevin Moy – 4:16.88 – Moy had a solid race at the state meet, splitting 1:56.9, and honestly I thought he could have been splitting in the 1:53’s. The man came into the season as the top 1600m returning finisher from the state meet. He hasn’t dropped those same times this year, but I do believe he ends his season on a good note with a good performance for this season.

8. Gunnar Sjoreen – 4:17.16 – After a really tough state meet I bet Sjoreen is out for blood. He’s a strong runner and I believe an even pace really benefits him. I think he ends his season on a high note instead of a low one.

9. Seamus Collins – 4:17.59 – I think Collins will run with Stratman, but I just don’t think Stratman beats him in the last 200, although Collins did just split 1:56.1, and I sure never saw that coming. Maybe he might drop a 4:16 Mile, we shall see.

 

10. Andrew Marston – 4:17.90 – The Coaches over at Conestoga do a fantastic job at training their runners to stay even. I said it in my last post, but Marston really does have a clock in his heat. I think he just clocks off 64.5’s the whole way. 

11. Billy McDevitt – 4:18.03 – Marston will help McDevitt roll his way to a big PR. He surprised me indoors with his 3k marks. This would be quite a jump in time of him (4 seconds), but he hasn’t raced in a couple weeks. 

12. Cole Nissley – 4:18.32 -- Cole Nissley ran his 4:19.95 seed time after running a sub 9:30 3200, although it was over 1600m. Nissley had a rough day doubling at the state meet, but I think he’s got one last great race. He’s Mr. Consistency and I think a small drop in time is reasonable.

13. James Hare – 4:18.54 – Hare is one of my favorite runners out of District 1. He comes on big at the end of the season and he’s dropped a lot of time recently. I think he’ll have a great race to end his high school career. 

I’d love to see Mike Kolor break 4:20 for the Mile. He’s only a sophomore and I’m really excited to see how he and Brett Foster do next season together.

Men 800m Run Elite

Before I get serious about this race, let me point out that there is a man running from Haiti seeded at 1:48.00 named Joseph, Joesph…. Okay, now time to get serious again.

Joe Logue also believes he can run sub 1:50. He man put himself in the Elite race in a fast heat with the seed time of 1:49.50. He believes in himself and he’ll be running against some really strong College Kids including Josh Lampron and Ben Malone. It’s a great opportunity for him. I believe they will have 8 people per heat for the Elite races, or at least the first few heats. This puts Logue and company in the 3^rd heat.

In a slightly slower heat, I believe they will have the last 14 runners in a heat starting with this heat, we’ll have North Penn graduate Chris Trimble with a 1:51.80 seed, Tom Kehl the Father Judge alum with a seed time of 1:53.00, and Nick Scarpello of CB West seeded at 1:54.12. Current PA runners are Nick Smart – 1:52.01, Evan Emanuel – 1:54.93, the Penncrest anchor who just split 1:54.5 at states, his teammate Soham Kamat – 1:55.37

Here are my predicted times

1. Joseph Logue – 1:49:27 – I was halfway through a write-up saying that Logue could beat Tom Mallon for 3^rd place All-Time, but I don’t believe he can do it. I think he just misses Mark Folwer’s mark of 1:49.24. Logue is absolutely amazing and he’s been amazing all outdoor season. I think he has his big breakout 800 race here much like he did as a sophomore.

2. Nick Smart – 1:52.94 – I think Smart has a bounce back after states. He had a rough time, but I think he’ll be able to pull great race together right before Nationals to give him his confidence back.

3. Evan Emanuel – 1:55.08 – After a huge PR at the state meet for his team I think Emanuel has a great open PR. I don’t think he’ll dip back into the 1:54’s, but I think he’s in shape to run this low of a time without the magic of states.

4. Soham Kamat – 1:56.80 – I think he is a bit too over his head getting into the Elite races and his suffers a bit on time. A 1:56 isn’t too bad for him though.

Mixed 5000m

Casey Comber is running and is seeded at 15:15. There are a bunch of runners around him with similar seed times including Alexander Balla. Comber I think has a size-able PR and runs 15:12. I never thought he’d be a sub 4:20 guy as a junior, even after his strong indoor campaign. I think he’s going to be scary good in XC next year and this race is the start of that.

Balla’s seed time of 15:25 seems very reasonable after his big 9:24 race at districts. He ran 15:47 on grass at Lehigh and he excels at longer distances, so I think he just betters his seed time with a 15:24.50.

Also signed up is James Hare, to you, I say good luck, my friend.

One more Note: 7 of the top 3 finishers in the distance events are not racing. Granted two are from District 7, but the District 1 boys Wilson, Russell (injury), Francis, Wiseman,  and Caldwell. It's a shame, but they're going out of their high school careers after PR'ing at a state meet. I don't blame them at all, and I can't wait to see them race in college.

--ForrestCRN