Wilson Gets His Title! (and Predictions for 16, 8, and 4x8)

Ross Wilson ran an incredible race in the 3200m to break the 31 year old state meet record by over 2 seconds in a time of 8:56.29!!! Tony Russell also broke the record as he clocked 8:58.26, but he was no match for Wilson's strength. I have no idea how the race played out because my live stream was not working, but I am so hyped up right now and a bit emotional. I met Ross when he was just a small, meek freshman who was coming out for the XC team, because his mom and dad were runners and he wanted to get in shape for basketball. He was ready for anything and right off the bat he never backed down from a challenging workout or a distance run longer than one he had ever done before. I was barely able to out kick him in our first meet of the season, a small meet against Twin Valley and I vowed I wouldn't let him get close to beating me again. Needless to say, Ross wasn't going to let me keep my promise, and I have never beat him since. Ross always is looking ahead. He has never been satisfied with the fitness he is in, but instead strives and works to get better everyday - working out twice a day for the past two years. When I was around him he would always be pushing the group he was in, trying to find his limits and then break through the wall to exceed them. All of his hard work and effort has paid off now as he took the bull by the horns and went for it. Tony Russell may go down as one of the top distance runners in PA history, but that doesn't scare Ross Wilson, who refused to shy away from competition or a tough challenge. It only drove him to work harder and prove that he too can be in that conversation. Now with a State Gold and a State Record under his belt as well his career as a Council Rock North runner has come to an end, and what a glorious road it was. Ross, I am so proud to have been your teammate for two years. Your work ethic and dedication to the sport are unmatched and I'm ecstatic that you were able to reach your dream.

UPDATE: Deluca took it out really hard about it apparently and it went out in ~4:21! Russell put 40m on the field with 800 to go and the race was really strung out, and Martin moved passed Wilson going into the last lap. With 300m to go Wilson pushed passed Martin on his quest to catch Russell. Wilson had 30m to catch up to Russell with 200m to go, but he put on a huge move and began to blast around the turn! With 50m to go he finally caught up to Russell and they battled for a bit, but Wilson was too strong as Russell faded in the final meters.

Now after my rant, lets discuss this race a little.

3 guys went under 9 minutes over 3200m's, the 3rd being Colin Martin who ran 8:59.90! Good lord these guys came out ready to roll. Behind him was Kevin James who ran 9:03.19 and the junior now has an ever tougher record to try and break next season. I'm not sure if Dominic Deluca took the pace out and died, but he finished 5th in 9:07.33 (I will watch the race at 5PM tonight so I can discuss them better). Sam Webb came up big once again and placed 6th in 9:08.11, which is another PR for the junior. He ran 9:13 last year and coming off a huge injury after XC he has now dropped 5 seconds this outdoor season after not racing indoors. It's really phenomenal and he's going to be scary next season. Reiny Barchet had a tough day, but he still medaled running 9:11.35 (which would have been second last season!). And Matt Mcgoey grabbed the last podium spot in 9:12.32, which is a nice new PR for the junior. Right behind him were two more junior studs who missed out on the medal stand, were Aaron Gebhart (9:17) and Casey Comber (9:18).

Shout out to Central Bucks South girls 4x800m! They broke the state meet record by 4 seconds running 8:51.49!!! CB South now holds both the boys and girls 4x8 state records. The national records is 8:48... just saying, these young ladies are incredible. 

Also, I didn't have a chance to put up predictions last night, so here they are:

1600m Prediction:

I’m not sure what made everyone forget that Zach Brehm is a 4:09.27 miler and the returning 800m state champion. The sophomore to win an outdoor state title in a distance even is Tom Mallon, remember him? Brehm is an absolute animal on the track. He’s got speed, strength, and has a strong kick. He just quad’ed at districts and got 3 wins out of the deep district 3. Yes, Tony Russell is the top runner overall in PA right now, but he will be coming off of a ~9 flat effort earlier in the morning. I can’t imagine he will be able to go out hard and take out the kicks of everyone at a blistering 2:01 pace like he did to Belfatto at Penn Relays, but he might try the tactic. I think he goes out in 3:10 and tries to bring it home hard, but it won’t be enough. I could also see Van Kooten and Abert going at it and the pace goes out in  ~2:04, which would destroy Russell and feed Brehm an easy win. Either way, I think Brehm is too good not to win this race and the two juniors behind him race well. Jim Belfatto is due for a big race and I think he comes up huge and beats a fading Russell out in the final 20m.

1. Zach Brehm – 4:10.56

2. Jim Belfatto – 4:12.04

3. Tony Russell – 4:12.10

4. Colin Abert – 4:13.73

5. Jeff Van Kooten – 4:13.89

6. Billy Caldwell – 4:14.43

7. Nathan Sloan – 4:17.64

8. Connor Holm – 4:18.44

9. Cole Nissley – 4:21.17

10. Matt Brown – 4:21.93

11. Ryan Grace – 4:21.98

12. Reiny Barchet – 4:28.72

I’m a big Sloan fan and I think Nissley has run very well recently, but he also ran in the 3200m earlier in the day (although he only ran 9:33). Holm will be right in the mix, and I think he can snag the 8^th spot. Brown I don’t believe has enough to handle this field and Grace and Barchet will be too tired from earlier races to really compete for the medal stand.

(ADDED: Now that we know Tony Russell just place second in the 3200m he'll be looking for redemption in the 1600, but he just ran 8:58! That's just off of his theoretical converted PR from the 2 Mile and now he's got to try and come back against some fantastic runners? I think it will be too much for him to handle).

800m Finals Prediction:

The finals of the distance races are really exciting this season. I’m looking at this stacked list of 800 guys and I’m thinking: wow this could be the best race, but then again Russell going for the double against Brehm and Belfatto, a group of 4 to 5 guys attempting to break 9 in the 3200 for the first time in almost 3 decades at the state meet and a 3 very strong 4x8 squads battling it out just makes me so excited. I have no idea which event will turn out to be the most exciting!!!

Sadly, I don’t have confidence picking Wilson over Russell and Wilson may go state title-less, but his Council Rock counterpart will not have the same fate. Jeff Wiseman has been killing it this outdoor season. He’s got the speed to run low 48’s in the 400, but he’s been working on his distance chops and I’m stoked about how strong he is now. I think he’ll finally dip into the 1:50’s and get himself the win. Kyle Francis just hasn’t put it together this season outdoors, which is really sad to see, because he was so dominate indoors, but it’s time for a new champion. Zach Brehm will be coming off a hard effort in the 1600 and I think he’ll be too tired to handle Wiseman’s blistering pace. I have no doubt this race goes out sub 25. 

Nick Smart has run some really strong splits this year and with so many people coming off the double from the 4x8/1600 I believe he’ll medal very high in this field.

1. Jeff Wiseman – 1:50.49
2. Kyle Francis - 1:50.53

3. Nick Smart– 1:50.91

4. Joseph Logue – 1:51.13

5. Zach Brehm – 1:52.60

6. Dylin Wilhoite – 1:52.69

7. Dave Garton – 1:53.92

8. William Cather – 1:54.23

9. Eli Mercado – 1:54.62

10. Marcus Smail – 1:54.73

11. Brett Foster – 1:56.90

12. Alek Sauer – 1:57.12

(ADDED: Could Wiseman get a title to bring the Council Rock's both a first time state titlist this outdoor season?)

 4x800 Prelims:

I can't imagine State College losing this race:
1. State College - 7:41.89
2.  Pennridge - 7:42.21
3. West Chester Henderson - 7:42.92
4. Central Bucks East - 7:46.65
5. North Penn - 7:48.33
6. Pennsbury - 7:48.67
7. Penncrest - 7:51.11
8. Saint Joseph Prep - 7:51.81
9. Seneca Valley - 7:52.74
10. Boyertown - 7:53.03
11. Cedar Crest - 7:53.08
12. Central Dauphin - 8:02.77