I’ve got a real nostalgia about the 3k. I’ve only run it
twice, and I’m a mid-distance guy (not a good one), but I truly love the event.
It’s a fantastic combination of speed, strength, and endurance which puts a lot
of guys to the test. I think this year could be a really fantastic race, much
like last season at the state meet.
Ethan Martin –
8:33 = States. State Champ for 3200m- Ethan Martin is coming off a bit of an
injury, but there is no doubt he will be ready to roll come indoors. He was
second last season in 8:33 and worked on his finishing speed and it came up big
at outdoor states. Martin will once again challenge for a state title and I
believe he’ll be one of 3-4 guys who breaks 8:30 this season.
Colin Martin –
8:35 (penn relays?) – 8:42 @ States – Colin is still looking for his first
state title. His brother has one, but Colin showed this outdoor season that he
can beat Ethan. I still believe Ethan is the better of the two twins, but Colin
has got to have a strong boost in confidence going into indoors. I think he’ll
be sub 8:35 and approaching that 8:30 mark.
Ross Wilson –
8:29 @ Penn Relays; 8:42@States – Wilson learned a valuable lesson last indoor
season. . . don’t take the 3k out in 60. or 4:30 when you’re not ready for it.
It cost him and Tony late as they pushed the pace. I think both of them learned
something and have raced much smarter since. Wilson has yet to get a state
title and since outdoors last season I have thought this is his race. He’s very
strong and the 3k seems to be a prime distance for him. He negative split Penn
Relays last season by 3 seconds (for the 1500) and I think he pushes this to
around an 8:25/26 for the win.
Tony Russell –
9:04 3200; 8:38 @ Yale – I’m predicting Russell will once again go for the
double. He knows what type of effort it will take after last season when he
fell out of the medals in the last 400m going from 1st to 9th.
This season Russell should be able to come back much better as he is a year
strong and wiser. I don’t think however he’ll be able to hold it together in
the last 400m, but does better than last season finishing in the top 3-5 sub
8:35.
Reiny Barchet –
9:08 3200; 8:51 @ Yale – I have no idea how Barchet will race at the state
meet, but the kid is very strong, shown by his 9:08 3200 from last season. He’s
got the potential to mix it up in sub 8:35 if the race is fast, but who knows…
Seamus Collins –
8:59 @ Yale – Collins will most likely be a piece in one of the Henderson
relays, but if he chooses to race this at states I’d have to imagine he’d close
in on a low 8:50’s mark this season. It might not be good enough to medal, but
he could run a nice PR.
Ben Szuhaj – 9:00
@ Second Indoor meet – Szuhaj ran the best meet of his track season last year
in December, but his injury this past XC season will hopefully delay him from
peaking early. He is very strong and should be able to break 9 and qualify for
states. It’s tough to tell how low he can go, but sub 8:50 is possible for this
junior.
Chris Cummings –
9:01.47 – I am so excited for Chris Cumming’s indoor/outdoor track season. Last
year Etrain and I were pulling for him to break 9 and it was painful to watch
him run just under 9:10 on multiple occasions. After his huge breakout XC year
the motto for Cummings should be: How Low Can He Go? I’m really hoping we’ll
see a sub 8:40 performance from him, but that might be a bit optimistic. He’s
got to break 9 first, but I hope we see him continually dropping from there.
Not sure if he’ll be running the 3k off XC training in that first meet, but I
hope he does. I know Brian Arita will be doing that and Wilson might join in
the 3k fun at the second meet, once FL is over.
Matt Willig –
9:04 @ Yale – Willig will be coming off injury, but he got into pretty good
shape by the end of XC and I think he’ll be able to translate that work well
going into the track season. Willig should be able to break 9 and possibly mix
it up for a top 8 spot come states. He’s strong and a fast pace should benefit
him.
Patrick Reilly –
9:05 @ Kevin Dare – Reilly only ran 1 indoor race last season, but I’m hoping
he’ll go sub 9 at Kevin Dare this season and we’ll get to see him race states.
Reilly had a really rough finish to his XC season with underwhelming finishes
at States and Regionals. This could be motivation for the district 3 champ to
come up big indoors. I think he’s got sub 8:40 potential in this even, although
he’s never really put it together on the track.
Matt McGoey –
9:06 @ TSTCA Champs – McGoey is another guy who missed qualifying last season
who should be able to hit the Q fairly easily. Gil ran very well indoors and
the whole NA squad usually surprises indoors by putting good races together
later on in the season. I’m hoping we see McGoey mixing it up for a medal.
Cole Nissley –
9:09 @ Kevin Dare – Nissley is my consistency man, and I’m hoping he can put
together a few nice 3k races indoors. He worked on speed last outdoor season and
I think he’s ready to go sub 8:50 at the state meet.
Chris/Matt Kazanjian-
9:12 (C) -- I have no idea what
Penncrest will do this indoor season, but I believe both Kazanjian’s have a sub
9 race or two in them. If they go 4x8 I doubt we’ll see them race this much,
but Chris has the potential to go sub 8:40 and really mix it up out front.
Jake Brophy –
9:21 3k, 9:32 3200 – Brophy has really made some big improvements, but last
indoor season he didn’t race fantastically after his top 30 finish in XC. I’m not
sure if we’ll see sub 9 from him indoors, but don’t be surprised if he pops
that out. The kid is amazing, but comes on big at the end of the season. He
seems to peak perfectly as he ran 9:32 for 3200 as just a freshman last year.
Other outliers to watch for breaking 9 – Kienzle, Balla,
Brown, Perlman, Morro, Doran, Mason, Greco, Zatlin.
I think it would be really awesome if we had a discussion
and got some guys interested in running a really fast 3k/Mile in the first meet
or two of the season to get the Q for states. If you don’t want to put your
name out publically in the blog, E-mail me at: fk246898@muhlenberg.edu and let me
know if you’re interested in getting a fast race. If we can get a few guys to
try and break 9/4:31 in the early meets like last season I think it would be
really beneficial.
--ForrestCRN
Dominic DeLuca? Griffin Molino?
ReplyDeleteCather? He ran sub 9 the only time he ran it last season.
ReplyDeleteI think the malvern guys mite be trying to run a fast race early on with their xc training
ReplyDeleteNot sure if Reilly was taking regionals very seriously....he ran a 15:33 at his local turkey trot on thanksgiving. I don't think someone who is trying to run a good race at regionals would do that.
ReplyDelete-GBC
Great post, you basically hit everything on the head. After reading RJJL's post on the last thread, I got to thinking. I think Russell will drop the mile because of two reasons. He doesn't have a rabbit so he will have to push the pace if he doesn't want it to be a kickers race and if he does that, he will be too tired to hold on and will end up being outkicked anyway. I think he goes all in for the 3k because he doesn't have a track state championship yet. He definitely wants one to add to his impressive resume, so I think he does that.
ReplyDeleteEthan Martin I think is the next guy in line. I know he was injured, but after a few weeks off he should be good to go and have his goal in mind. He's the reigning champion and has the target on his back. He knows how to race smart and has great footspeed.
Ross Wilson would be my #2, but FL Nationals throws him off so much. I believe he will do exactly what the Nationals boys did last season... train through and qualify the second meet, then take his break until jan and build back up. Max Norris did it, but he also had an unreal season until districts. I think Martin gets the jump on him because of this and Wilson gets third.
Idk what happened to Barchet after his Henderson 3200, but that's in the past. He dropped a 9:08 and is ready to roll in the 3k. I think he will be a top 5 3k runner this season.
Jon Colwell. Remember him? Comes out of no where at Kevin Dare and drops an 8:45 then 8:41 at States. He has the fasting closing of a 3k i've ever heard of (besides Sara Sargent closing the 3200 her freshman year in 28) and I think if he is still in the race at the bell lap (or within 2 seconds) he wins. I don't think he will be that close, however, so he will also be in the top five for me.
Colin Martin had a great XC season and will continue to roll in track. 7th at indoor states, 4th at outdoor, the kid is a lot better than people give him credit for. It's just hard to live in your brothers shadow. I think Colin will round out the top 5.
Chris/Matt Kazanjian need to be watched as well, but as does their 4x800. It all depends with this team. Historically, team goals come first and leads me to believe they will go all in for a 4x800, however, if one of the twins drops a fast enough 3k, I believe whichever one dropped it will run the 3k and try and double back for the 4x800.
-RTJ
Whoops, forgot to do my top picks. It is... Tony Russell, Ethan Martin, Ross Wilson, Colin Martin, and Reiny Barchet, Jon Colwell, Chris Kazanjian, and Dominic Deluca.
DeleteGirls: Tessa Barrett (breaks state record...again), Courtney Smith (breaks state record again also), Regan Rome, Mady Clahane, Olivia Young (if she doesn't run the mile which she might... she seems like to run the mile/1600 more often during post season), Kelsie Potts (off the double), Mary Malone (off the double), and Emily Fisher (if she bounces back from mono)/Aislinn Devlin (if not).
Yes, Unionville has 3 medalist. That's what happens when a team is that distance dominant and have those three girls' 3200 all sub 10:52
Jon Colwell graduated RTJ! I know on Penntrack he's a senior, but so are Kevin James and Sam Ritz...
DeleteI however disargee that Russell will drop the Mile. There are so many guys who are true distance guys who won't admit it to themselves. Chris Campbell is my best example. The guy was a FL finalist and clearly a distance runner, but refused, literally, to run the 3200 or 3k. I remember his senior year he ran 9:32, running a 79 last lap because that's all he needed to do to get the meet record.
Russell isn't that bad, but I think he truly wants to be a Miler, another reason why he chose a Mid-Distance school in Penn State in my opinion.
A lot of PA guys are this way, guys around the nation really. Another example I can think of right away is James Zingarini. He's a total 5k guy on the track, but a Miler in high school. Really hoping he embraces that and drops some sick 5k's at BC.
--ForrestCRN
Ethan, wison, russell are my top 3
ReplyDeleteDidn't Greco graduate?
ReplyDeleteI will be running the 3k at Lehigh on the 14th with the goal of qualifying for states. I would love to have some guys join me and see "how low can we go".
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great analysis and dedication Forrest.
-Cummings, WC East
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ReplyDelete