Kevin James –
O’Hara – 4:15.73 Open – I think there is a really strong chance James runs the
open mile at states and will come back to a relay on the double. James is a
really strong runner and has made some really nice improvements during XC. No
question he’ll be sub 4:20 open indoors and challenging for a top 3 spot.
Jeff Groh – Lower
Daulphin – 4:16.90 1600 – As we all know, Groh has a stress fracture, but if he
can make it back in January, which seems reasonable to me, he could very well
pull out a solid indoor season. I doubt he’ll dip under 4:20, but around
4:22/23 at states in a fast race seems reasonable.
Sam Webb –
Pennsbury – 4:19? 1600 – Broken Leg – If the rumors about Webb’s leg are true,
and they seem to be, then I doubt Webb will even make it back for indoors, but
if it’s only minor he could make it back. If he does come back, most likely we’ll
only see him in a relay spot, but he’s solid racing makes him deserving of this
list.
Christian Kardish
– HGP – 4:18 as soph – Kardish has had a tough running career being plagued with
many injuries and illnesses, but he did come back to run 4:20 last outdoor season
after contracting Mono. I think Kardish could pull it together this indoor
season for ~4:25 and compete for a possible medal.
Colin Abert –
Easton – 4:20 1600 – Abert was really hungry after last track season, since he
got shin splints and wasn’t able to break 4:20 outdoors. Abert took that hunger
and transformed it into multiple CR’s and a 2nd place finish at
states. He just missed FL and that fire has been re-ignited, if not more passionate
than before. I think he’ll handily break 4:20’s indoors and challenge for a top
3 spot.
Billy Caldwell
– Downingtown East- 4:20.5 Mile: Caldwell’s
4:20, like most Mile PR’s of the guys on this list came at the Distance
Festival after states. I think Caldwell has a better chance of placing in the
Mile and it will give him more break to come back and run a fast 4x8 leg. This
seems like a good option and I see him running 4:22/4:23
Sam Ritz – GTF
(4:11) – Ritz hasn’t had a big XC season and he didn’t do much at FL either,
but track seems to be his bread and butter. His older brother, Ben, ran 4:14
indoors last year at nationals and I think Sam will be shooting for a similar
mark. I think he just misses it in a 4:15 clocking.
Tony Russell –
West Chester Henderson - 4:14.52 Mile – Last season Russell tried the Mile/3k
double and it didn’t work out to his benefit, but he’s a year stronger and I
bet he goes for it again, being more successful this season in his endeavors. I
think Russell has to be the favorite going into the race. He can push the pace
and I bet he breaks 3:00 in the 1200 this season if Coach Kelly has him run it
at some point this season. I think he runs 4:15 to 4:16 for the win.
Brent Kennedy –
Kiski Area 4:17.57 Mile – Kennedy is another guy coming off injury, but his was
fairly early on in the XC season and I bet he’ll be healthy and ready to roll
indoors. He’s got Patrick Miller as another solid Miler with him and I think
Kiski will put together a good DMR. Kennedy in my opinion runs the mile and
doubles back. Kennedy is still devoid of a state title and I think he’ll
challenge Russell.
Kevin Moy – West
Chester Henderson – 4:16 1600- Kevin Moy has had a very successful XC season in
my opinion. He’s a big dude and is much better on the track. This being said he
broke 16 at Lehigh and ran 48 seconds faster at Regionals than he did last
season. This big improvement in his base and strength can only benefit him this
indoor season. Moy could be Russell’s biggest challenge.
Nathan Sloan –
Hampton – 4:19.42 1600 – Sloan was injured early on during XC, but came back to
finish 11th at districts and 52nd at states which are
pretty solid spots. Sloan will be totally healthy for track and I think can
challenge his PR’s indoors. Look for him to drop into the 4:22 range.
Kyle Francis –
Bensalem – 4:16.34 – Francis ran that time at SOL’s, earlier than everyone else
on this list. If he’s going to double, it would make sense for him to race the
mile over the open 8. He loves to sick himself up front and is fearless. If he’s
in it by the bell lap I’d take him for the win, his kick is fantastic. Francis
may seem like a sleeper, but he could very well win it. Think Tom Mallon moving
up his senior year indoors.
Others to watch for – Martin Twins, Logue, Stratman
--ForrestCRN
Zach Brehm?
ReplyDeleteJames Hare? Where's he been, that 4:21 last outdoor...
ReplyDeleteJoe Logue, Ross Wilson, Martin Brothers?
ReplyDeleteZach Brehm- Carlisle up until this year has not run indoor track meets to my knowledge, so I didn't put him on this list. He of course would be on the list otherwise. I said the same thing about their 4x8.
ReplyDeleteJames Hare - He's not much of an XC guy, but he's got sub 4:25 potential indoors in my opinion.
Joe Logue - Logue is on the watch list, he's on that list since I think he'll be just running the open 800. The 1500 is a good distance for him, but at Penn Relays we saw those extra 109m hurt him.
Wilson and Martin Brothers - I believe these guys will all be running the open 3k at states and so I didn't worry about putting them on this list.
Carlisle ran a few indoor meets last year and it'd be foolish to deny Brehm the opportunity. Assuming he runs, where would he rank? Russell can't close with Brehm in the mile the same way he couldn't close with Coyle and Huemmler, he just doesn't have the same speed.
DeleteCarlisle is signed up to run at bigger meets than they did last year, including the Carnival. Its already on Penntrack. Not scheduled to race until January though.
DeleteI feel like Carlisle could have some good relay potential especially with an anchor like Brehm. He'll run big this season without a doubt but, we'll have to wait and see what the rest of the squad does this season. I respect them after a good team finish at states but at the same time I don't want to over hype them since their D3.
DeleteKid's not invincible. We saw this with magaha too, he had a killer underclassman season but later on (okay technically a year later) couldn't keep it together due to mono. Yes Brehm came out swinging as a stud sophomore but unless we've got a 4:02 guy on our hands by the end of high school, he'll go through a phase of being slower than such a peak as well. Expect that indoors. A good cross season can either help or hurt a young runner, as it stegnthens them only if they survive the grind of all those miles.
DeleteMartins are definitely 3k guys
ReplyDeleteI don't want to be that guy always bringing Russell down (even though the last few weeks I've said he'd win everything/his relay would win if he ran on it...), but I don't think there's a chance he breaks 3 flat in the 1200 indoors. To break 3 you need to go through in about 1:58 and that's his PR. I think Brehm, Francis, and Logue are the only three runners with the credentials at the moment to do it. I do think Russell is State champ in the mile though, running only as hard as he has to to win.
ReplyDeleteBilly Caldwell won't run the mile, that would be a waste of his time. He's definitely running the 800.
Moy will run the mile and I think he will medal as well. He has the second best 800 speed that will be in the field and I think he medals.
I expect Francis to run the mile as well. He seems to do that indoors and it makes sense. Unless he rockets a fast 800, I don't expect to see him running it open.
Does Carlisle run indoor? This would be such a waste of a season if Brehm doesn't get to race all indoor.
Abert said his goal was to go 4:10 this season, so the mile is obviously his goal for indoor. I think he goes top 5.
My top 3 milers would be: Tony Russell, Sam Ritz, Kevin James, Brent Kennedy, and Kevin Moy.
I'll save the long post and just make my girls top five list: Greta Lindsley, Kennedy Weisner, Marsisa Sheva, Kelsey Potts, and Mary Malone.
I don't have Brianna Schwartz winning because I don't think she will be there. I think she will be off at Brooks PR like Weisner was last season and miss the State meet. With Sheva/Weisner injured, it was hard to estimate how they'd do.
Millrose...
By the way the article was on Penntrack, Zach Brehm and Brianna Schwartz literally can do nothing and get the autobid because they ran fast enough last spring. Along with them, I believe Tony Russell will make it for the boys and Kennedy Weisner (if healthy), Marissa Sheva (if healthy), and Tessa Barrett for the girls. Girls have 4 representatives if they maintain their health, one from an at large bid (Weisner).
-RTJ
Didn't Russell run ~3:02 last year?
DeleteThe new and improved Russell could easily get it done this year. I do see some quality competition though from his teammate Moy and from Francis, if he runs it. They both have scary good kicks.
DeleteRussell did run 3:02 last year... but when you run an event like that there's only so much time you can drop. Once you're already so low, you can't really say "easily." Magaha is the only guy i know that can drop so much time so quickly. 1:52 junior year to 1:48 senior year. Like I don't expect Kevin James to run 3:01 when he ran 3:04 last year. If Russell does run that then he should beat Brehm easily in the mile. If Russell learned from the past, he knows not to let this be a kickers race... which plays into his and Brehm's hands. I was at the distance festival when Brehm dropped that 4:09, and if he can handle indoors, Russell has a challenge on his hands, but I think he wins at the moment.
DeleteIf Francis/Moy beat James/Brehm/Ritz I would be extremely surprised. Also, I mentioned Brent Kennedy, but I don't think he runs indoor. He may be a swimmer or something, but he's never run indoor before.
-RTJ
I could be wrong but my instinct is Russell drops the focus on the open mile and goes after the 3,000 indoors, 3200 outdoors. He has sub 8:25/9:00 potential and the longer distance favors his talent. He’s an outstanding miler but chances are someone in the state is going to have the speed to outkick him…obviously Brehm comes to mind. If he could develop the ability to run four straight 62/63 quarters I might change my mind, but based on last year, he ends up doing all the work only to be passed in the last 250 or so.
DeleteBut the 2 mile is a different story, he can wear down the competition and somehow have the same kick he has in the shorter mile. I still think he runs the mile for the DMR that should be in contention at indoor nationals and Penn Relays, but individual, he’s a natural at the longer 2 mile, why not give himself the best chance for gold?
- RJJL
Tony has arguably run the wrong race for most of his career, once he got as strong as he did for XC. His stride will struggle with most middle distance running and I think this year it's important to realize Brehm can take him down (if healthy) too easily, unless we see Tony outpace Brehm in times BIG TIME this year. Brehm can still come back and cook Tony late season if he's under raced. Seeing the two square off at Millrose would be good, but states won't be the same race. Between the two I say Tony wins Millrose and Brehm, if he can hang on, will win States the next week. Tony has never run a hard enough mile (not chasing CBA) alone if Brehm is smart enough to treat the pacing like Huemmler and Coyle did.
DeleteTony I think wants the mile a lot but there are only so many scenarios where that's a safe bet for him to get his first PA Track gold, as opposed to the 3k. No way he'll double well after that though- he struggled enough running the 3k, his legs likely would have no speed left for a 1200 leg or a truly competitive 1600 anchor versus James/Otheres
Russell, brehm, albert are my top 3
ReplyDelete