West Chester
Henderson – Who knows what Henderson will do some the state meet relay
wise, and we’ll be sure to see them running full strength at nationals with
that 4xMile and DMR like last year, but indoors at the state meet they should
be able to put together a sub 8 squad without running Russell, Barchet, or Moy.
Stratman, Collins, and Knapp are all capable sub 2 runners. Moy could come back
off the open Mile in the 4x8 as he ran 1:55.06 in the open 800 last season and
would be a very solid anchor for this squad. They could very well contend for a
top 3 position at the state meet.
Bensalem: Francis
is a 1:52 guy and he has 3 teammates step up and run in the 16:20’s this season
in Steven Davis, Alex Ramirez, and Tyji Mays. This team always pumps out good
4x8’s and I have no doubt that these guys will be solid sub 2 runners in no
time. Anchored by Francis they can do some major damage. Obviously they’ll
double him up in the open 8, but I’m sure he’ll split 1:54 or faster on the
anchor. Kyle Brockett also split 2:02 last season and will be another piece for
this team to work with.
Pennsbury (Webb,
O’Connell, Sauer): Webb’s injury could put this squad back a bit, but Sauer ran
1:56 last season and O’Connell hit 1:58. Webb has split 1:57 before to my
knowledge as well. This team may be better off in the DMR, but they seem to
love running the 4x8. Webb’s injury may force him to go relay only at states
leaving them with a fresh relay of their choosing.
Cardinal O’Hara
(Belfatto – 1:55.19 open, James—split 1:57? If not faster, Smart- 1:55.14 open).
This relay will probably go DMR with some guys doubling (James- Mile,
Belfatto/Smart Open 8?), but they need to pick up one more guy which shouldn’t
be too difficult considering Jack Nolen ran 2:01.62 as just a sophomore last
season. These guys have tons of potential in this race. I’d bet we won’t see
them full force till nationals.
Penncrest
(Kazanjian twins, Evan Emanuel- 1:58.19, Soham Kamat- 2:00.87) – Penncrest seems
to always pull together a sub 8:00 4x8 outdoors and this season I’m sure they’ll
contend for a medal indoors. The Kazanjian’s rarely run the 3k and seem to
focus on the relays come track season. If they choose this route again their
teams could be very dangerous. I’d like to see if they could run a fast DMR,
but they got low 8 potential indoors.
North Penn – Grace,
Molloy, Tung, Aham, LeConey – 2:02.82, Piscitel – 1:59.2. After Grace and Tung’s
sub 16 marks, and returning a sub 2 guy in Piscitel, I have no doubt North Penn
will pull together another really solid 4x8 this season. History tells us they
will.
State College (Adams,
Heatwole, Cather, Golembeski) – Everyone returns from this stand-out relay.
Cather and Golembeski have taken it to the next level and Adams is a very solid
#3 guy. I have no doubt they’ll be in the 7:55 or faster range, and could very
well break 7:50 at nationals if they run fresh. Cather will probably try and
pick up points in the Mile with his new distance abilities.
Central Bucks South – Much like North Penn, CB South seems to
always pull together a strong relay team. James Chappell ran 1:57.15 last
outdoor season and returns to be a strong anchor for a developing squad. Freshman
Matt Scarpill led the squad an XC and could be a piece to this team along with
fellow sub 17 guys in Tom Quinn, Jack Marquis, and Eric Tomaselli. Have no
doubt that they’ll qualify for states and contend for a medal.
Downingtown East –
(Caldwell – 1:55.12, McLaughlin- 1:58.35, Fitzgerald – 2:02.97) Lead by big
time front man Billy Caldwell DTE has a fantastic anchor and a really solid
lead-off man in Liam McLaughlin.
Caldwell will most likely be on the double off the mile, but it shouldn’t
affect him too much. In XC Fitzgerald made some big improvements and Keelan O’Reilly
ran 16:30. This team has a real shot at putting a sub 8:05 squad together on a
good day.
Central Dauphin –
Central Dauphin doesn’t have many top notch guys on paper for open 800
performances, but every year they manage to put together a sub 8:10 performance
indoors and a sub 8 performance outdoors. Mitchell Coackley looked great this
XC season as did teammate Ben Wilson. These guys should be in the low 2’s and
they’re joined by a pair of low 2:03 guys in Alex Malinoski and Jake Notestine.
With a fresh team on the track against some guys on the double this team can
contend for a medal.
Altoona –(Stroh,
Foust- 1:59.08, Endress-1:58.00) It may seem as though I didn’t give Altoona
enough credit during XC for their very solid performances, but I’m already on
their 4x8 bandwagon indoors and I’m predicting a sub 8 from this squad. Foust
has taken it to the next level in XC placing 24th overall at the
state meet in a fantastic performance. Stroh and Endress have also had strong
XC performances. They ran 7:54.92 last season and I don’t know who the 4th
man was last season, but those 3 guys alone all have sub 2 potential indoors,
especially on a relay team. Joe Uliano, Kyle Heasley, and Jerrod Sunderland are
all guys form the 16:55-17:05 range that could fill in that last spot.
Malvern Prep –
Malvern Prep gets to run indoors, but I’m not sure if the Hoey’s will be racing
as they are young and coming off a long season. This relay does have potential
however with guys like Andrew Powers (2:00.99) and Dan Ferraio (1:55.80)
returning.
North Allegheny –
(Michael Becich – 1:56.68, Love – 2:00.47, Seel – 2:00.80, Short – 4:31.32,
Louco – 4:28.73), NA seems to be the NP of district 7 in terms of pulling sub 2
guys out of obscurity, but going into this season they’ve got a bunch of really
solid names, anchored by Mike Becich. I’m not sure exactly how they’ll decide
to attack this indoor season in terms of racing, but this squad could put
together a sub 8:05 team at the least.
More to come in the following days during my study breaks!
--ForrestCRN
Also I'm thinking about expanding for girls distance running. I know RTJ would love that idea. Thoughts if a new blog should be started for female discussion and keep this one for males only, or if I should hold them on the same page?
Keep posting thoughts and comments about next season for XC or indoors! I'm glad to see big discussions back on the blog!!! I'll be weighing in on my break about next XC season a little bit :)
I'd go with a whole different blog for the girls, but that's just me...
ReplyDeleteIf Henderson stacked it, they would no doubt win the 4x800 or the DMR. They will not stack it, however. I think Collins, Stratman, Moy, and Knapp come together to run a 7:54-ish. Knapp/Collins/Stratman being fresh, Moy off the double. Going somewhere around 1:59, 1:59, 1:58, 1:56 which will be good for a 7:52 + change so 7:53 mid, which will be good for second.
ReplyDeleteI believe O'Hara to be the 4x800 champs for this reason. They'll have James in the mile, Belfatto/Smart in the 800, and one fresh leg- Nolan. I fully believe that Belfatto/Smart can double 1:56's and James can go 1:57, leaving Nolan to just hit 2 flat. That'll put them at a 7:49 + change so 7:51 and State champs.
Penncrest would be my dark horse pick, but Chris Kazanjian has become too good. He will make States in the 3k and run it. Probably Matt too.
SC- Had a solid 4x800 outdoors, but this is indoors and I don't see them all PRing and running faster than 7:55 by the state meet. Cather will be on the double, but the other three should be fresh. I think they can manage something like 1:56, 1:58, 1:59, and 2:02 to get around a 7:55 + change so 7:56 high. That'll be good for third.
To summarize quickly: O'Hara, Henderson, State College at this point is who I believe will go 1-2-3.
-RTJ
Now of course I'm not ending this post without saying something about the girls… it was just too large of a post so I had to break it up.
DeleteGreat Valley for State champ. Am I being biased? Probably, but they did win States last year, made all american in the 4x8, and then got second outdoor, so I guess I can be a tad biased. They lose a leg... but replace it with Anna Willig... so they really don't lose much. They bring back a 2:13, 2:14, 2:15, and 2:18. I see them taking States and breaking the All time state record at Nationals. They missed it by .58 last season with their #2 hurt and their #5 in (who ran a 2:18). Unless a special circumstance, GV will not run any of their girls open, so their relay will be fresh. I can't see them losing.
The battle after becomes intense with CB South, Strath Haven, Garnet Valley, and potential wild card CB East.
CB south has some nice pieces and will be lead by Kaitlin Poiesz (sister of Matt Poiesz, member of the state record 4x800 indoor and outdoor). I think they will be a top 5 squad this indoor season. Poiesz will be off the double from the mile earlier in the day.
Garnet Valley loses Alyssa Rudawsky, but keeps Liz McGroarty (2:14) and Katie Keyser (2:15). With a lead off and anchor like that, I think they can find middle pieces... like Skyler Berardi who was a 5:15 miler and their #2 XC girl. I think they place third in around 9:22 or so. McGroarty and Keyser will be off the double, no doubt, but still will both go sub 2:18.
Strath Haven has 800 specialist Allie Wilson who has split 2:12/3 multiple times. Between her, Abby Kennedy, and Jamie Kennedy (5th place medalist in the hurdles.. does the 800 indoors. Reminds me of a Seline Tan-Torres from Methacton), they only lose one leg from last year, which I believe from their XC success, they can replace. Alice Puchalsky ran a 5:13 and seriously stepped it up in XC this year or freshman Isabel Cardi can fill in that final spot and help this team place high at the State meet, with Allie Wilson on the double. I'd say they get second.
Lastly, my wild card, CB East. Tate Dawson straight killed it as a frosh and I believe between her, other frosh Hannah Morris, Elizabeth Morris (5:13 1600), Louise Huuki (5:09 1600), and Elizabeth Huuki (5:07 1600), they can put together a top 5 4x800. Hannah Morris and Tate Dawson haven't run track yet, so they won't get a feel for it until late January most likely.
A team that could kill the 4x800, but won't: Mount Lebo. They have 3 sick pieces in Audrey Gordon (5:06 1600), Jillian Hunnsberger (5:09 1600), and superstar Kelsey Potts (4:55 1600), but I don't think they'll run that even. Maybe the DMR off the double, but not the 4x800.
If you want to skip that long summary, here's the quick facts: Great Valley, Strath Haven, and Garnet Valley go 1-2-3.
Side note: Girls are a lot different than boys when it comes to range. Generally, if a girl kills it at XC, she kills it at track as well… there isn’t much differentiation until College. For boys, if they kill it at XC, they may not be that dominant at track. Same rule applies to the mile. If a girl’s good at the mile, she’s generally good at the 800, not so much for boys.
You know I’d love a girls portion of the blog. My vote would be to keep the same blog, why waste time/effort making a new one? Just make a girls post day when you don’t have anything to post for the boys. If you want help one that one just shoot me a text.
-RTJ
Just make sure there is a "girl alert" so those of use purists, used to the guy format, don't waste our time reading.
DeleteI guess we have a sexiest here^^^. What does "purist" mean anyway, because last time I checked it didn't mean sexiest. Anyway I think the girls should be kept on the same blog. Comparatively they are better then the guys anyway and deserve more attention... Just saying
DeleteUm, awkward because sexist and sexiest are 2 totally different things.
DeleteReally, double the content of this blog? I don't think the PADON'tPLAY brand lends itself to the female runner. If there was such a big audience for discussions about high school female runners in pa, a female-centric blog would already exist. And besides, Forrest, you would be censoring this baby all the time from all the salty comments. Somebody( RTJ, maybe?)just start a separate girls blog...and watch nobody read it.
DeleteDon't understand why people are against adding a female part to the blog. I think it would spice it up a little bit and give females some recognition. People on here must be really ignorant because the girls in this state are some of the best in the country!
DeleteI agree with two comments above, if this went girls too Forrest would have to police it 24x7 for the inappropriate comments. There was one not-so-nice post this week aimed at a female runner that Forrest was quick to get rid of, but those sophomoric comments would likely increase, after all, there's a lot of sophomores out there.
DeleteThere is always going to be trolls. Not everything in the world is rated "G".
DeleteIf the girls of PA cared enough there would be a blog for them already. Forrest it's a good idea, pardon my french, but nobody will give two shits about girls posts. Like I said if people did there would be one already.
DeleteI respect female runners and PA definitely has its share of great ones. But this blog doesn't have a female vibe to it. Keep it for the boys. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
DeleteI have no objection to RTJ doing an occasional update on the ladies but frankly, there aren't many comments on them when he has done them in the past, ergo, little interest.
Like someone said, let a fan of female running start something and good luck with that.
There is a site for girls...it's called PennTrack.
DeleteBeing totally honest, I follow Unionville vs. Pennsbury and maybe the top 10 or so individuals, but after that I have very little interest in the girls until maybe states. RTJ's post is well written and he definitely did his homework, but about a third of the way into it I feel asleep and ended up late for school.
DeleteWoah, many more comments than I expected from that. Four things I have to say one this...
Delete1. This is more of a question/comment, but I believe PA don't play was just a phrase/group started by Brendan Shearn... or Don Rich... or one of the two. It's nothing more than showing how dominant the State was after last year when we sent four to nationals.
2. You can't say if girls were so interested they'd have their own blog because the only reason for etrain's blog and this blog is because of Jarrett. If he never started that blog, there would be no boys blog and boys would be in the same situation as girls.
3. Whoever said girls have a higher success than boys, you're right. That's why I find the girls so interesting, because it's such a different atmosphere. The girls have been dominating the last 5+ years.
4. I don't think there should be a girls anything on the blog after reading the comments. They're right, people would post immature comments and make Forrest's job so much harder. That and people only care about the top 3 in the State and after don't really care.
-RTJ
Well said RTJ. I agree. I feel that THIS blog isn't really for girls distance running to be discussed. But I feel that a lot of girls would read a blog about girls xc/tf if you made one and got the word out. Talking to some of my female teammates, they love seeing names and times and getting mentioned as much as guys do. I dont know how big your following could get but it could be worth a shot.
DeleteThanks for all the comments, RTJ I will definitely hit you up about once finals are over :)
DeleteAs for girls being better than guys, it's totally true, sorry to say guys.
And lastly on "PA Don't Play" it apparently originated with the Dawson twins and the Coatesville team back int 2006. Don Rich has been carrying it on. That's what his wife told me when I was talking to her after Paul Short. Don disagreed and said it was from earlier, but she seemed to be winning the discussion haha
Expect a DMR or Miler Preview in the next two hours
Ferraiolo*
ReplyDeletesuper surprised not to see CB East on this list for guys. They ran 7:54 last season and only graduated Alec Brand off of that relay. Replace him with sophomore sensation Jake Brophy (who split 2:01 as a frosh) and that relay contends for a top 5 spot at the state meet for sure.
ReplyDeleteFrank Brophy- 1:55 split last season
Mike Donello- 1:57 split last season
Oliver Boucher- 1:58 split last season
Really great call, I totally dropped the ball on that one, I didn't realize all the legs were returning! I doubt Donello and Boucher will split sub 2 indoors, but both Brophy's should be able to go sub 2 and Frank is a really great anchor to have.
DeleteFrank Brophy ran the 400 last year and I expect him to do the same this year. Jake Brophy will most likely run the 3k. I think they'll focus 4x800 after indoor.
Delete-RTJ
Frank Brophy running the 400 is a waste of a good distance runner.
DeleteFrank Brophy isn't a distance runner, he's a mid-distance runner like I was. He runs the 400 and the 800. XC is merely a season to stay in shape so he won't be lazy.
Delete-RTJ
D-TOWN EAST!!!! They got some guys that are determined to roll this year and be in contention when the bell rings!
ReplyDeleteExpect some type of relay to come out of Carlisle. They've signed up for PTFCA Carnival already.
ReplyDeleteI believe NP ran a 7:58ish outdoors without McCauley and Johnson (who were injured). They return 3 (grace/leconey/piscitelli) and get Johnson back. Also with Tung breaking 16 in XC, he might compete for a spot.
ReplyDeleteOhara is the definite favorite for the 4x800, but I would not count Penncrest out of it. I believe Penncrest returns 3 of their 4 members (who were sophomores last year) onto their 4x8 this year. With Emanuel and Kamat running 1:58 and 2:00 last year as sophomores and the kazanjian twins they can do some damage.
ReplyDeleteCoh, wch and penncrest are my top 3 picks.
ReplyDelete