Thursday, September 19, 2013

9/21 Weekend Preview!

 Hey guys, I put up 3 different posts today (sorry I had a lot of work the past 2 days) so check out my big 7th PIAA Foundation's Preview along with a quick review of the 34th Centaur Invitational Results that were released yesterday afternoon.

18th Annual Bulldog Invitational – Big Spring
                Last year Patrick Reilly opened his season here with a 16:40 against Todaro and Brady Wilt. Todaro smoked the field, but this year I’m hoping to see Wilt and Reilly go at it a bit. Todaro ran 16:09 for the win, so I’m hoping to see a sub 16:25 clocking from the winner. 

Altoona Mt. Lion XC Invitational
The Altoona boys will look to defend their home invitational against Kiski Area in what should be an interesting battle. Kiski doesn’t really have the depth, but the Kennedy brothers should give them low scores. This is a very interesting meet for them to attend. Another pair to look out for are Bedford’s sophomores Zane Baker and William Kachman. 

Sharpsville Blue Devil Invitational
Austin Pondel scortched this course last season in 15:32 beating the field by 54 seconds. This season we get to see just how fast Jeremy Parsons’ goes. I’m hoping he hits a sub 16 clocking, maybe a bit faster. Behind him we have Trevor Blackwell of New Castle along with Jeff Van Kooten of PCC and Maplewood’s 2-3 punch Jake Parsons and Hans Wentz. In the mix of this meet will be the ‘A’ powerhouse West Middlesex who will be once again battling against Maplewood for the Invitational title.

Briarwood Invitational
One of my Major’s in college his History if you guys didn’t know, so meet history does mean a lot to me, so you guys may be getting more and more meet history as I continue blogging, I hope that doesn’t bother everyone too much. He’s some stats:

Anyone who breaks 16 minutes on this course since 2009 has gone to make nationals. Brad Miles ran 15:49 and broke a state course record and win FLNE, he came in 3rd to the Rosa Twins who went 1-2 at NXNNE. Last season Shearn was 15:41 and was 4th @ FLNE and Tony Russell who was also 15:41 went on to break Miles’ state meet record and win NXNNE. Phil Wood (NJ) ran 15:43 @ Briarwood and finished 5th @ FLNE, that was in 2008 when 2 guys broke 16 but didn’t make FL. Sean Keefe of CRS didn’t run regionals but ran 30:06 for Syracuse as a sophomore, while Patrick DeSabato went on to place 22nd @ FLNE and just ran 30:14 for 10k at Columbia. So basically breaking 16 at this course gives you some fantastic company. I won’t go further back for all of your sakes :) Oh goodness I almost forgot 2011 when FL finalist Dustin Wilson ran 15:38!

That being said this season we’ve got Ross Wilson of CRN and Kevin James of Cardinal O’Hara who ran 16 flat and 16:04 respectively last season, chances they break 16 this year? I’d have to say 100%. Even if it starts pouring rain these two are ultra-competitive and ready to go at it and I still think the 16 mark will be broken. The real question is how low to they go? 15:41 by Russell and Shearn was very impressive and they’re two of PA’s best, but if I know Wilson he’s hungry to break that mark and I have no doubt James will be as well. I think Wilson takes the victory in 15:38 with James running 15:42. Bold, probably, but hey, I’m hype. Behind these guys are a slew of runners fighting for the top 25 spots with times between 16:10 and 16:35. Some names to look out for are :

Runners: O’Hara’s Belfatto and Morro, CBE’s Jake Brophy, HGP’s Christian Kardish, DTE’s Billy Caldwell, GV’s Matt Willig and Thomas Doran who should now be alleviated of their illnesses, Kennett’s Chris Kienzle, La Salle’s Brandon Bilotta, North Penn’s Ryan Grace, Malvern Preps 1-2 Combo Hoey and McDevitt, and Penn Charters Scott Mason. Sorry for the long list, and I’m not sure which guys will be in what races, but I’m hoping to see sub 16:30 clocking’s from almost all of them.

Teams: O’Hara should have the team title locked up with 3 guys in the top 15 and their top 5 in the top 30 I’d like to say, but I’m squeaking on that a bit. Behind them should be a tough fight as Salesianum who is very strong every year will be battling with CRN for second place. I’ve got CRN 7th in the state right now, but they do have to prove their consistency. I’ve heard great things about their practices, but we shall see.

 I think North Penn will mix it up quite a bit as this is the first 5k Invitational we get to see them in this year. This will be a big test for this squad along with William Tennent and Twin Valley. Both teams have run well with solid spreads on very fast courses. Now we get to see how they hold up against hills and big time competition. Malvern Prep is also a team to look out for as they had a 42 second spread @ Bulldog and Hoey and McDevitt can mix it up with the top 20.

West Winsor Plainsboro North and The Lawrenceville Prep school are traveling from New Jersey to come to Briarwood this season. The last time we saw WWPN was during the Rosa Twin’s era, so I’m hoping they’ve got a good team and Lawrenceville always recruits a couple good mid-D guys who translate well to 5k.  

Comment away! Will we see sub 15:45 from Wilson and James?

--ForrestCRN

25 comments:

  1. Based off of Bulldog times we could see James sub 15:40 at Belmont and Cummings around 16:05 at Hershey.

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    1. With Wilson and James pushing each other, I think they may get under 15:40. Don't think they will get to meet record of 15:33.

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    2. Meet record is actually 15:18 by Joe Rosa. He ran 15:33 as a junior and 15:18 as a senior.

      Also new rankings up http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251065-Saucony-Elite-50-2013-XC-Season/article/22296-Saucony-Elite-50-Team-Boys-Week-1

      I'm surprised no PA guys in the top 25 right now due to the fast times, BUT
      Henderson ranked 5th
      O'Hara ranked 17th
      and NA ranked 19th

      They're a bit skewed cause No OH teams are in the top 25 when two of them beat NA this past weekend (granted NA didn't run their full varsity) and Arcadia is ranked 25th which is ridiculous as they are defending national champs and will finish in the top 5 for sure.

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    3. More great running weather tomorrow considering it's mid September. There should be some really good times on those tough courses for Briarwood and Foundation.

      -RJJL

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  2. You can't compare Bulldog's times to the State courses time. 16:05 would be top 5 most years (with the exception of last year)... that's absurd to say he will run that so early. I think he will continue his hot streak and win the race, with Webb second. Webb usually turns it on at the end of the season which is why I think Cummings will win this race, with Webb placing higher at the State meet. Also, Cummings is on a roll, two 15:30's his first two races and only losing to Kevin James, who is top 3 in the State in my opinion. I think he will win in 16:18 and Webb second in 16:23.

    -RTJ

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    1. Bulldog to Foundation is easy. James went 15:12 on a fast course that's similar to Lehigh. Russell went 15:11 on Lehigh then a week later went 15:45 at Hershey. The 34 second differential is about right for sub 16 from Lehigh to Hershey. So if Bulldog is legit, Cummings 15:30 translates to 16:05 at Hershey. James Bulldog 15:12 should get him to low 15:30's at Belmont.

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    2. Neither Cummings or James/Wilson will hit those times. 16:30ish and 15:45ish for the winning times for those respected course. Great times early in the season

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    3. If they don't hit those times than Bulldog was Bullcrud.

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    4. Cummings won foundations in 1610ish

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    5. Officially, he won in 16:13, very impressive.

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    6. I was wrong. Cummings was close to hitting 16:05. I thought 16:30 would be an excellent but blew that out of the water. Must be considered in the state now. Congrats.

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  3. I know we would all love to see Reilly and Wilt battle at Bulldog, but I don't think that will happen. I think Reilly will blow Wilt out of the water, and come close to breaking 16. I have nothing against Wilt, but I think Reilly is an absolute beast when it comes to XC.

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  4. DTW TOP 5 IN STATE 4 SHO

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    1. Top 5 in chesmonts if they are lucky.

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    2. What are you smoking. White, alansky, pelcin, and Farrell all top 10 in the state.

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    3. No sun Valley is obviously favorites to win nationals. They got a legit pack up front.

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    4. Dwest shouldn't get to worked up over those Bulldog times, something wasn't right there.

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  5. For comparison sake;
    COH girls; Bulldog Foundation (Hershey)
    Mancini 19:21 20:51 +1:30
    Kelly 18:52 21:31 +2:39
    Lyons 20:01 21:10 +1:09
    Sheehan 20:34 21:59 +1:25

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  6. Foundations results http://runhigh.com/2013RESULTS/R092113AG.html

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  7. Cummings is on fire. Any word on Briarwood?

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  8. Henderson is NOT winning states. Period.

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    1. Agreed. They're last years news. They probably haven't raced yet because they aren't that good. Cummings owns Henderson & Russell.

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    2. I heard they had 3 or 4 guys out with injuries, so you may be right.

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    3. Based on today's time NA would have had like 80 points at last years states. They're solid 1 - 5.

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  9. Any results from Briarwood yet?

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