Hey guys! Sorry for the late post, I've been at the Philadelphia Museum of Art all day!
Sadly I don't have a smart phone or I would have been posting since 11 AM, but here we go!
28th Annual Council Rock Invitational
Ross Wilson continues his winning streak with a solid victory over Casey Comber (2nd- HH) and the Kazanjian twins (3-4). CRN wins the Invite by putting 4 in the top 10 (1,5, 8, 10).
Wilson wasn't as fast as I had expected, but Comber is the big story here in my opinion. He was 2-0 at some big invitationals but won the Large School race. Now he runs sub 16 at CR's course along with beating the Kazanjian's. This really will solidify his ranking as a top 40 guy in the state.
TW ran pretty well in the race for 2nd coming up just 9 points shy of CRN with a nice spread of 41 seconds. I hope they can bring it down to about 30, but they're in a good spot. CRN's 1:48 spread is not very good, but Heintz and Laitman have been getting better every week, hopefully they can close it a bit as Wilson will be low 15 at districts.
21st Carlisle High School Invitational
Well here is the results we've all been waiting for!
I've got a lot to say about this race and it's honestly all over the place. My initial reaction was not being as impressed by Henderson as I had hoped to be. Penntrack said they dominated the meet, and I guess in some ways they did, but idk... just not super impressed. They ran really well for sure, but I don't think they ran well enough for me to bump them back to #1 in the state. I'd love to know all of your opinions on this.
My second reaction is DANG... for Carlisle and Red Land. These are two squads who told me before the meet they were going to get in the top 10, and I was hoping they would, but wow they seem to go it going on. I will give Carlisle a bit of home field advantage here, but they came back and beat out an impressive State College team. To defend SC though, they just ran Foundation so it's gotta be hard running back to back after that, which is one of the issues D3 has and I believe they should change it, but that's for another post.
Red Land: When you have a trio of really solid juniors, whats the chance one of them is a breakout star? Apparently pretty good, as Drew Wilkinson showed us this weekend. He was part of a 7 second spread, but really gapped the guys who were seemingly his training partners 3 weeks ago. Now does this meet they also have the potential to be with him? I doubt it, but still this squad is looking great. I thought Seiger was going to pass Lauer for top guy on the team or at least be with him by this point, but they have improved at the same rate and are top 30 guys in the state. This team will be tough at states.
Zach Brehm and Patrick Reilly... well done. Reilly ran faster than Todaro at Big Spring last week and was 3 seconds off than him this weekend (15:34) on a slightly slowed down Carlisle course while Zach Brehm kills it running 15:28 for the victory. Reilly has got to be a top 10 guy in the state now with Brehm potentially top 5. This is really fast. Barchet on the other hand was 3rd here last year placed 10th over all in a 15:57 effort that was slower than last season by 7 seconds. Not sure what's up him, but I feel like Barchet always has these types of races so I'm not worried.
Another big story is New Oxford's Aaron Gebhart who placed 5th overall. I had faith he'd run really well this season after missing the medal stand at last years state meet as just a sophomore, but he's stepped into a top 20 position for sure. Jaxson Hoey takes a next big step as well placing 9th after a big race last week.
Not to forget about the Champion's race where Connor Holm continued his break out year with a win in 16:04 putting him 14th in the Puma Challenge race with Stratman and Bilotta.
I'm upset Don Bosco didn't bring their whole squad and I am now super interested in how fast Brehm and Russell could have gone; I'm thinking 15:15ish.
McQuiad Invitational (NY)
Jeremy Parson's continued his winning streak at this meet while his brother placed 7th over all and Hanz placed 10th.
Let me know what you guys were impressed by or underwhelmed by this weekend! Not a ton of results.
--ForrestCRN
whens the next top 50? some big jumps all around the board!
ReplyDeletePenntrack has a top 50 based on actual times, not conjecture or favoritism.
ReplyDeleteIts bias is not human. true.
DeleteHowever, its bias is in being unable to distinguish course difficulties. A run at Lehigh is not the same as Carlisle, or Abington, or Schenley Oval.
No two courses are the same and no two days are the same.
You have to use both Penntrack and PA Don't Play to construct a "perfect" top 50. Each is a distinct resource for you to identify your own thoughts.
Well said. There is some quality work put in to those rankings but for a few names on that list, it's just a big wtf.
DeleteWell I'm sorry that my list is "conjecture/favoritism," I attempt to be as objective as possible.
ReplyDeleteAs for that next list I'm hoping to have it out either Sunday or Monday. I've got a good amount of work so we'll see. But hopefully it'll be done as soon as possible. At lot has happened in the past couple of weeks.
Thanks Forrest, I'm a card-carrying Henderson hater too. They are so over-rated.
ReplyDeleteCarlisle 2012 - Henderson total time 121:20 / 16:16 ave. with Russell
DeleteCarlisle 2013 - Henderson total time 120.41 / 16:09 ave. W/O Russell!!!!
I think they look stronger and faster than last year but I am a lover! ;)
Wow. Those are impressive numbers. Not a hater here, not a lover either-neutral. I think Russell would for sure have given Brehm the business today. Guess we'll have to wait until Districts/states to see that match-up but I think I give the edge to Russell. WCH may not have impressed you but I think they looked like a very well oiled machine. I wouldn't count them out just yet.
DeleteThe Henderson guys ran about 35-40 faster at Districts then they did at Carlisle last year. Supposedly, the course at Carlisle was a little slower this year then last. Probably, just a couple of seconds. They beat the #18 team in the country by almost 60 points. They had a 24 second spread for their 1-6 guys. They're way ahead of last year. This race was much deeper then last year. What more do you want?
DeleteI don't want more out of them, I just think NA is that good this year. I am not predicting NA for the state title just yet, though. All I am saying is that everything is far from cut and dry right now.
Delete-GBC
I think its interesting that SC beats Carlisle when the race is in State College and then Carlisle wins when its in their hometown. I think the two are probably as close to equal as any two teams in the state right now.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, I don't necessarily believe Henderson is over-rated (although I can see how you think that). I think it's more that NA and maybe even Ohara (they're good but I still see Henderson beating them) that are under-rated. Henderson is a team that trains to peak for regionals/nationals. Thats a good 2 months(ish) away. As of right now NA is my favorite. HOWEVER, remembered what happened at Briarwood last year? Ohara crushing Henderson? Remember how that turned out at states? Are you curious why I'm asking so many questions? Well it's still a very long season and I expect a big jump from that Henderson squad. Plus this is their first 5k invitational. I'm cutting them some slack. Get your popcorn ready gents. This season has only just begun.
ReplyDeleteJust a few notes. Knapp fell around two miles, he was up quick and he had not damage that affected the rest of the race but falling always kills your rhythm and momentum. Henderson also would have had closer to 60 points if Russell had raced. Don't forget that Henderson had a hard race on Wednesday too. If you don't believe that Wednesday should have affected Henderson look at DTW's times. Each of there top guys ran about 20 seconds slower than Wednesday. I don't think Barchet would have been in the mix here on a good day, seeing how Brehm and Reily ran.
DeleteDidn't realize that was Knapp who wiped out on that turn. That looked like a nasty spill too. He finished strong-glad he's ok.
DeleteWednesday's meet with WCH, DTW, and WCE was a league tri-meet with 3 of the top 10 ranked teams in the states. Looking at WCH and DTW's times, I don't think they both ran to their full potential, possibly due to Wednesday's hard race and the absence of Russell.
DeleteThe Wednesday course was tough course but not quite a full 5K. Abington is a real quick track and Bulldog isn't even 3.0. Carlisle is a fair test and shows where they're really at and that's not top 10 for DTW yet. They're a team of the future though.
DeleteWho would you rank no.1 in the state individually right now? I'd go with Ross Wilson. At least one Martin, Brent , and Russell And maybe Brehm can beat him at states but I'm just saying for right now I think he's running the best.
ReplyDeleteHenderson doesn't even start training hard until October.
ReplyDeleteI think it's hilarious that these people are saying that dwest is the team of the future. Take one look at the results. Henderson dominated them in varsity and beat them in the 9th and 10th grade race. What argument do you have?
ReplyDeleteHenderson's varsity was all upperclassman and dwest had 3 or 4 underclassman in the varsity. Although I'm confident the dwest underclassman are on varsity mileage while WCH's freshman are on lower miles.
DeleteYeah, WCH dominated them but WCH loses their top 6 after this year, and there is not a lot in the pipeline. Dwest loses 1. Plus their varsity has freshman and sophs who have a lot of upside and should only get better. And they're deep. It hilarious that you couldn't see that.
DeleteHenderson keeps Knapp next year and he is top 4 or 5. The will also have G. Barchet and Swart too. Henderson has a large freshman class and they had four in the top 20 and two more just short of 18:00. I would say they have a strong future too, just not as apparent as DTW's is right now.
DeleteGoing strictly off of the times from Carlisle and Wednesday's tri meet, and using previous knowledge, next year a Henderson vs. Dwest dual meet should look like:
DeleteHenderson: 1, 2, 5, 9, 10 Total: 27
West: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 Total: 28
Henderson has Knapp, Barchet, and Swart, and Dwest might be able to put 5 guys in the middle. However, Henderson probably has the best coach in Pennsylvania, so I can't see them losing to Dwest anytime soon. But who knows, only time will tell.
Let's focus on this year. DWT got overrated because of Bulldog.
DeleteVery true
DeleteDWest has a lot of upside. Expect them to be in the mix next year. And any team from WCH has to be taken seriously-they are just that well coached.
DeleteOne of the DTW freshman had a bad race, they would have had 6 sub 17's, but definitely not overrated. They are freshman and will probably be inconsistent sometimes. Russell kind of was last year.
DeleteI think Henderson ran amazingly, don't be too shocked I'm saying this. I do wish Barchet ran faster. He ran faster last year and placed much higher. Last year he may not have been training for Nationals though so I guess it's a different scenario.
ReplyDeleteBrehm should have silenced his doubters. Comes out and wins his home invitational in a very fast time.
Don Bosco looked terrible. I don't even know anything more to say so I'll just leave it at that.
I definitely expected Wilson/The Kazanjian brothers to go much faster. I'm shocked the Kazanjian brothers lost to Comber.
The second CR north gets a fifth is when they will be a threat to the State. It's unfortunate because they have a solid top 4.
Unionville's girls victory over FM was the most impressive feat of the weekend for me. It wasn't even close, that's legit. This team has a better chance than any PA team to make noise at NXN.
-RTJ
Just looked over the results real quick, and holy crap! Jaxson Hoey dropping a 15:53 as a sophomore, and he's not even on a good team? That's unheard of, I'm impressed to say the least!
ReplyDeleteHe trains with the WCH team. What does that tell you?
DeleteIt tells me that although he isn't on a good team, he trains with a good team. But the kid brings a lot to the table himself. I hope he and the WCH team know how lucky they are to have such great coaching.
DeleteHoey runs for malvern and the team as a whole didn't run at carlilse but they did get third at briarwood for the chanpionship race so you can't malvern isn't a good team
DeleteAnyone else surprised by the team results? Yes, obviously Henderson is up front but DAMN Carlisle and Red Land are not playing around this year. Both are D3 teams and after you throw LD in the mix district 3 could have some really strong team finishes this year.
ReplyDeleteBoth WCH and DWest each ran 2 very competitive races in the course of 3 days. Props to them.
ReplyDeleteHenderson looked very solid and they’re probably right where they expect to be at this point in the season. Their training will probably become more intense in the next weeks so the real progress should show at Manhattan. Knapp and Waltz are looking good and I’m still expecting a big drop from Moy. It’d be tough not to put them back at PA #1 but I’ll leave that decision to Forrest!
ReplyDeleteIndividually, that was a convincing win by Brehm. His 4:09.2 mile last year converts to a 4:07.6 -1600 so that’s some incredible potential for XC. He should be one of the favorites to win states. I just don’t know enough about that Carlisle course to call his win the top PA performance of year so far. It’s up there with Cummings at Foundation and Wilson at Briarwood though, but again, Forrest can sort that out in the rankings!
-RJJL
RJJL,
DeleteMilesplit has a video of the boys challenge race from the back of the lead gator. That gives you a decent idea of the course. I am not saying that you have to give Brehm's race a ranking, but if you want to see what the course is like, check out the video.
-GBC