Top Ten Teams Updated List #1 after weekend 9/7. Let us begin:
1. West Chester Henderson (District 1. Previous Rank: 1)-- This team is ranked 2nd in the nation. I honestly don't think I need to say anything more. They are the OSU of PA running right now. They're stacked and constantly reloading. I get RTJ's argument, but my retort is as follows: This team could not race until districts and still be #1. Why? Because this team isn't even potential on paper, this team doesn't have a depth issue, and this team has an unbelievable coach. This team has proved themselves over the past years they have what it takes to win. Unless another team in PA does something to impress me, like NA putting 5 guys sub 16:45 and their top guy at 16:15 at Foundations then I don't see why I should even consider WCH not being #1.
2. North Allegheny (District 7. Previous Rank: 3) -- NA has more depth then I imagined and they've got the tight spread going once again this season. I think they got 2 potential medalists on this squad as well. They main concern I have with them is that they don't have a crazy low stick like Russell and Barchet. Even with a fantastic spread of 20 seconds the course they ran was fast. Pack running becomes increasingly more difficult based on the difficulty of the course. We saw that last year at states where they went from a spread of under 20 seconds all season to a 63 second spread. Granted Zemet stepped up and Love tripped and fell, but still, if you put him with McGoey that's 40 seconds. That's what the state course does to teams, so they'll really need to prove themselves at the state meet.
3. Cardinal O'Hara (District 12. Previous Rank: 2) -- Their race two weekends ago I took as more of a tempo, but I was impressed with Morro's race as he finished second on the team. I am still questioning my choice of ranking Belfatto so high up. He's got the potential, but he'll need to step it up as the season goes on if they want to compete for top 2.
4. Lower Dauphin (District 3. Previous Rank: 4) -- I'm keeping them here for now because they showed me what I believed they had: A great 1-2 punch and a very solid 3-4 combo. Mulligan does need to step it up for them to retain this position, but for now I'm confident in where they're at. I think a lot of people are underestimating just how good Weidner and Santeusanio are.
5. State College (District 6. Previous Rank: 7) -- I knew this team would have a lot of potential going into the year despite the doubters, but man the proved a lot to me at the Big Valley Invitational two weeks ago. They've got 8 really strong runners and a low stick in Cather. This is probably the hungriest team in PA right now after they had many a mishap last season. They do need to prove themselves in a bigger invitational, but I honestly think they could beat LD in a dual meet.
6.West Chester East (District 1. Previous Rank: 10) -- I moved them to #6, don't hate me too much. I know we got a lot of WCE fans and haters on this blog for some reason, but this is a solid team. Cummings has taken it to the next level and their 2-4 guys are really moving. Dougherty will be big time for this team as they don't have a defined 5th man right now. They will need to figure that out by seasons end or it'll be tough getting out of district 1.
7. Council Rock North (District 1. Previous Rank: 5) -- Really still rethinking this because I do believe they should be 6th... You guys may ask why, but how many times does CRN get their butts handed to them in September at invitationals and amazingly end up beating all of those teams come late October/early November. When I see CRN just out of the mix without their top guy (if he were their and placed top 10 they would have been right with WCE), that should scare some people. This team will peak at the right time so expect them to move up the list once October rolls around. They've got 6 pieces, which is more than most teams.
8. Tunkhannock (District 2. Previous Rank: 8) -- Haven't seen a ton from this squad, but I like what they have and I see no reason to move them in the rankings until I see them in a big invitational.
9. Downingtown West (District 1. Previous Rank: N/A) -- Really really good stuff from DTW this weekend. Henry Sappey has already jumped to that next level with Jason White which is really great to see this early as they are youngins. DTW peaked at the perfect time last season as they showed up solid for Ches-Monts but turned it on at districts. I didn't expect them to make it out, but they've got a young coach and I like what he is doing with the program. They've got another So in Ben Ryherd who was their 4th man, and I can only imagine will improve immensely as the season goes on. This squad has the youth and depth right now that most teams don't and I like that. They're headed in the right direction.
10. Great Valley (District 1. Previous Rank: 6) -- I'm sure I'll get a ton of crap for this, but GV did impress me this past weekend. Willig is coming back from injury and Doran (3rd man) was sick so he raced in the JV race. Plus their #2 guy is in a boot. So why is this good? Well they placed 4th and were not too far behind DTW, Penncrest, and WCE. That should scare people. Willig is going to be where he needs to be late in the season. Doran will jump up as the #2 in no time and they had 3 guys run17:20 at districts last season. Ellis (So) ran 16:58 right away and Flanagan ran 16:59, both of them breaking 17 for the first time this early. I like the pieces they have and once guys like Zatlin, Kilroy, and Feeney come back they'll be ready to move and without them they're still right in the mix.
Just Missed:
-North Penn: I will need to see them in a 5k before I can pass judgements, but they look as if they reloaded quite nicely, I'm excited to see where Molloy and Grace are at.
-Penncrest: This team is known to peak early and they raced faster in past season this early so it does worry me a bit. Yes they were second at Abington and they've got a great 1-2 punch with the Kazanjian twins, but their 3-5 will need to show me more before they get on the list.
-Mount Lebanon: This team has come around really well, far better than I thought, and I believe they will be in the top 10 at some point. But their 155 pt performance against #2 NA (30 pts) makes it difficult to judge exactly where they are.
-West Middlesex: Just a A team, but they're running very well with a young squad and deserve recognition for that. Not sure if they're capable of top 10, but we shall see.
-William Tennent: 20 to 30 mile team that constantly peaks early. I cannot in good consciousness put them on the top 10 list. If they run well early October even I'll give them consideration.
Left the list: Previously Ranked #9 Fox Chapel: They were removed because they do not have the #4 that I had hoped let alone a #5. They will really need to get those guys into the 17 min range before they can get back on the top 10 list.
LET THE DEBATE BEGIN!
--ForrestCRN
P.S. I will probably update the top 10 list every weekend or every other weekend, but I'll do the top 50 rankings every 2 to 3 weeks, especially this early since it's so tough to move people around after 1 performance. I'll update it after this coming weekend however.
Looked at the bulldog list... Wc east vs Ohara?
ReplyDeleteLast year O'Hara ran their boys JV. Also Bulldog runs two races, Large school and small school. WCE is large, COH is small. Pennridge, North Penn and both Dowingtowns should join DWE in the large school race.
DeleteIf CB EAst boys show up, then you will see Chris Cummings vs Jake Brophy.
O'Hara ran JV at Bulldog AND Varsity and JV at PIAA Foundation last year because they were on the same day.
Deletecan't argue much about your list. I think it's on the spot. I thought the WCH would run away with the title but NA and COH can't be overlooked. Not on your list but a nice bounce back by Pennridge. Just have a feeling NP and Mt Lebanon will be in the picture come end of the season.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget about WCE. They could just as easily be #1.
DeleteLet's get real. Forest has this one right. W/O a strong #5 they are going to be challenged to make it out of the District. The spread between 1 and 5 is too big.
DeleteDon't know how Penncrest isn't on this list. I know you expect Great Valley to be on the list by year end, but maybe you should wait till GV is healthy and running good times before putting them on.
ReplyDeleteAlso think William Tennett should be on the list until someone knocks them off.
Other teams for the just missed; Redland, Fox Chappell.
you suck a lot -etrain11
ReplyDeleteThis blog isn't Etrain
DeleteWhat's your thoughts about Pennridge?
ReplyDeleteThey won 1 not so competitive meet. good for them, but I'd hold off on any bold predictions of State Champs for now.
DeleteWCE , DTW, and Penncrest beat CRN. They should both be up there. We can assume Ross Wilson would have won, but we don't know. Cummings was a lot faster than Wilson has ever run on Abington and like 13 seconds off his districts time so I don't know.
ReplyDeleteLower Dauphin was risky placement too.
I believe (as well as everyone else) WCH and O'Hara to be top 3 teams, but as of now neither of them have run an invitational 5k to show their strength. We know they're top tier, but as of now they haven't shown in. Russell hasn't even run yet so. As of week 2, I don't believe they deserve their spots. Once they run and dominate then yeah... put them back up.
-RTJ
Come on RTJ, really? Henderson is ranked #2 in the country by the major high school ratings! Are you going to keep them out of the top ten in PA because they only ran the Oakbourne Relays?
DeleteI think I get where you're coming from, that the ranking should be based on performance. But that's just not practical. After all, preseason polls are based on potential and prior years. Until there's a legitimate report of serious injuries or they fizzle at a big meet, their potential and past results really should be respected. Just like college basketball rankings, would you rank Stoneybrook over Duke simply because they won before Duke played a game? Be serious.
RTJ,
DeleteFollow the results. O'Hara dominated a Catholic League Meet and Russell ran last Friday. WCH had 5 guys within 3 seconds in a mile.
RTJ lovesss to bring down the Henderson team. There isn't a team that has the ability to challenge Henderson this year at the state meet. Last year there were, and there will be teams next year but at this moment in time its a no. They don't even need Russell to win states this year, that's how deep they are.
DeletePlease when you say things like "I can't understand how (blank) isn't top 10" or "this team shouldn't be knocked off until they lose", give an alternative. Anyone can say that a team should be on or off a list, but you need to give reasoning. Sorry for my little rant, but its tough to watch people criticize the man who is doing a lot of work when no alternative is provided
ReplyDeleteI like to see explanation's because that is what will get me to reconsider or learn more. I don't expect to be right every time, I do what I can.
ReplyDeleteAs for Pennridge I don't see enough for them just yet, give them a week or two to get into some bigger invitationals for us to see where they are at, but definitely a team to be watching!
I do agree though that Redland should be on the Just Missed List, but there are a lot of teams I've got on it right now, but I'm watching them very closely. I do believe they have the potential to be a top 10 team at so point.
--ForrestCRN
Still think William Tennett should be on the list. You say they peak early. However, last year they ran Viking with an average of 17:35 and districts with a 16:55 average, a 40 second drop with a young team. They do that this year and they make states. You can always drop them is they show bad at their next big meet (Briarwood?). If you want a recommendation to drop, then drop Great Valley till they prove they are healthy.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good top ten, Forrest. NA and O'Hara are better than I expected and that ranking seems right.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see WCE get the credit they deserved, it was a little late coming last year by most of us. I was concerned about their depth last year, but their top guys came through all season. I've got the same concerns about them this year, if someone in the top four has an off day, they're probably not contending anywhere. But it's early and one or two guys should be able to develop the 5 - 6 role by districts. - RJJL
I brought down Henderson AND O'Hara, not just Henderson and it's nothing against them. I didn't even bring them down really, I said we all know they're the top teams in PA, just haven't run an invitational. Dual meets don't mean anything and most of the time are jogged. We can't go by that. If we do then Caldwell > Barchet when that's not the case. I get why they're ranked #1 and #3, but I just assumed Forrest was doing it on a week to week basis, strictly. I do not hate Henderson, I repeat, I do not hate Henderson. I don't hate any team and I've meet some chill people coming out of Henderson. Everyone knows they are the most dominant team in PA, again, I just thought Forrest was doing this list on a week-to-week basis. Nice comparison to basketball though, I liked that.
ReplyDelete-RTJ