Monday, September 23, 2013

Top 10 Teams List Update 9/23

Made Edits 9/25 due to my mistake with Delany being on Freedom's squad. It doesn't change their ranking however, but that portion was changed thanks to an anonymous poster. Sorry about the mistake.

1.       North Allegheny (7) Previous Rank 2nd: A few weeks ago I said a team would have to do something really impressive and prove to me they were truly the real deal to get me to move WCH from that #1 spot? Yeah… well NA did that this weekend. Putting a 16 second spread on the state course is so legit. If you put this team in last year’s state meet they go 17, 29, 30, 33, and 34 giving them 88 points. Just some quick math and putting them behind all the people with the same times as them. And this is just how they’re doing in September! Are you kidding me?!?! Last season O’Hara scored 40 pts with 5 guys in the top 12. NA just scored 31 points by putting 5 in the top 9. Last year Josh Zemet placed 9th in this meet with 16:52 as NA’s second man, this season their 5th man was Cordon Louco who ran 16:37. Let’s remember that Zemet ran 16:20 (32 second improvement) and placed 15th.
Name – Foundation to State (time difference)
Zemet – 16:52 to 16:20 (32)
Louco – 17:06 to 16:47 (19)
McGoey – 17:13 to 16:59 (14)
Mcclure – 17:32 to 17:34 (-2)
Love – 17:41 to 18:08 (fell mid race)

Meehan didn’t race at states due to injury and he ran 16:50, and Seel didn’t finish the Foundation meet (not sure why, but he was 16:48. If these guys improve 10 to 15 seconds going into the state meet they’ll have 4 to 5 medalists hands down, which I don’t even think Henderson could compete with. They and O’Hara had 3 medalists each last season. No question in my mind that NA will have 3 medalists and easily the top 5 in the top 30. Henderson better be nervous. They do have the advantage of possibly having 2 guys in the top 5 if not going 1-2 in the race, but they’re going to have to really prove themselves next weekend at Carlisle.

2.       West Chester Henderson (1) Previous Rank 1st– Still yet to race. Going to really have to come out on fire cause NA is looking beastly. Will we see another tie at the state meet???

3.       Cardinal O’Hara (12) Previous Rank 3rd – This team ran really well at Briarwood with a 43 point dominant performance. Kevin James is in similar shape to Tony Russell and Brendan Shearn of last year which is just scary good and they put 5 in the top 17 with a 47 second spread 2-5 plus freshman Ryan James is following in his brothers footsteps running 17:22 to dominate the JV race and he would have been 16th in the Varsity race, so they’ve got a 6 man deep squad which will be helpful at states.

4.       Lower Dauphin (3) Previous Rank 4th  – This team proved themselves as well this weekend. They beat out State College by having a fantastic 1-4. Jeff Groh is back in form and will be a big time force at the state meet; I’d go as far as saying he could be a top 10 guy. Remember this guy was a district champion as a sophomore. Nissley is coming along as well, running 7 seconds faster than he did at the state meet last year. They’re 3-4 are legit as well. Sean Weidner is only a junior and I think he’ll be much better once state’s comes around. Now they just need a 5th man, cause having 2 guys running 18:43 as their 5-6 is no good. One good thing I guess is that Jack Mulligan who was their 5th @ PTXC dropped out. He was 50 seconds behind their 4 then, so if he is around 18 flat and scores them 55 points they’re in a much better position. Hopefully he works out whatever issue occurred in this meet. But LD does have the pieces to be dangerous.

5.       State College (6) Previous Rank 5th  – These guys have come to play this season as they got a minute spread 1-5 one the state course right now which is solid. If they want to compete with LD in the future they either need to tighten that spread to 45 seconds or get Cather in the top 5 of that race. Their lack of a true front runner is their current issue, but this squad is very solid top to bottom giving them the 5th spot in the state.

6.       Malvern Prep (Ind)Prevous Rank (N/A) – This squad ran really nicely this weekend and showed what I liked to see in teams. They have two strong runners who mix it in the back of the front pack in Jaxson Hoey and Billy McDevitt. After that they pack it up really well holding a 15 second spread 3-5. They only have 1 senior on the top 5 as well which is good for the future as well. They don’t have much depth after 5 though which could hurt them. We will get to see them go head to head with CRN at Salesnium later this season.  

7.       Council Rock North (1) -Previous Rank 7th – CRN has a very solidified top 4 much like LD. The main thing that separates these two squads right now is their #2. What does that mean for CRN? They need to develop a 5th man. Right now district 1 teams are having some issues as GV and WCE aren’t exactly where they hoped to be at this stage so CRN has some leeway at districts, but the state meet won’t be as forgiving. I do really like the competitiveness of the mid-distance guys in Griswold and Simmons. They’ll make a good 3-4 combo as the season progresses. 

8.       Freedom (11) Previous Rank (N/A)– These guys jumped onto the PA scene this weekend @ Foundation. Sophomore Daniel Quigley is just starting to develop as he leads a young team  with only 1 senior (#4) in the top 7. They do need to show me more as their 5th man was 18 minutes, but I think Quigley has 16:40 potential at states and if the rest of this squad can move up by 20 to 30 seconds as well they’ll be in perfect shape once states comes around for a top 7 finish. 

9.       Downingtown West (1) – Previous Rank 9th: Yes this team finished 4th overall and lost to PA squad Conestoga, but they packed it up within 13 seconds for a two mile race and I think it was more of a tempo first mile for their squad and then they went out and went for it. These guys have extreme depth and I like what I saw from them over 5k. I really hate these two mile races. Please stop running them


10.   Conestoga (1) – This squad has a strong front runner in Andrew Marston who ran 9:53 for 3200 this past weekend. His team packed it up for a 36 second spread 1-5 which is really good to see. They’ll need to prove they can stay strong through 5k with a sub 45 second spread to be a real contender. 

 Now, let’s take a moment to acknowledge that we’ve got teams from 7 different districts represented in the state. I think there is something very special about that and shows that PA has got it going on all over the state.
Just Missed:
Pennsbury- Scored 177 @ Foundation. This team has a very solid 1-3 and they’re young with only 1 senior on varsity, but having multiple guys over 18 at the state course in their top 5 right now worries me.
William Tennent –Scored 95 @ Briarwood Division1 race. Ran well at Briarwood, but lost one of their top 5 due to injury so they lose the tight pack that was under 30 seconds. They’ll need to squeeze back to that if they want to make it out of district 1.
La Salle – Scored 93 @ Briarwood Division 1 race. Squad looked good beating WT by 2 pts this past weekend. Bilotta should be a lock to make states out of D12
WCE – Scored 190 @ Foundation. I like what this squad has and Cummings is clearly the real deal. I’d say he’s the Austin Pondel of last season. I think he’ll be right around 16 flat at states. But their weakness showed this weekend as their spread was destroyed on the hills. They’ll need to pull together if they wish to not only make it out of district 1, but be a top 10 team in the state.
Mount Lebanon – Scored 193 @ Foundation. This squad as a 46 second spread 1-7 meaning great competition at practice. I think these guys will hope into the top 10 by states if they can keep this spread up. I also like Todd Gunzenhauser’s chances of being a stud come November.

44 comments:

  1. Bulldog, Briarwood, and Foundation are not legit results. Besides issues with the course length, none of the winners had valid competition. All of them were blowouts. Guess we'll have to wait until States to see how it all shakes out!

    Does anyone know why Briarwood was held a week earlier than usual? In the past, the Championship race has had 12-13 teams, and this year there were only 8 teams. No way the start line was moved up either - it was the same as every PCL meet.

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    1. I guess there are no legit results anywhere!

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    2. So Kevin James vs Ross Wilson vs Pat Hally (9:14 3200, 4:18 1600, and De XC state championship) wasn't good competition? Jeff Groh, Cole Nissley, Sam Webb, and all of NA aren't valid competition either?

      -RTJ

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    3. Also, Cummings had to outkick Groh. It's on video.

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    4. Yea, screw XC its all fake, lets just dance horses in the noble sport of dressage instead

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    5. RTJ - yes, some great individual competition, but no valid team battles. Just sayin we really wont know til States for the team title.

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    6. Oh, you meant team battles. I thought you meant individual. They weren't facing Henderson or O'Hara, but their times on the course was the impressive part, not really the amount they won by. Districts we will see how in shape Henderson is and States will be the huge showdown between the top 3 teams. If Kevin James' little brother is as good as he was as a freshman then they definitely have some room for him on the varsity team, maybe even their fifth man. He beat their fifth guy and basically soloed his time.

      -RTJ

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  2. Dominating performance by NA. I agreed with you moving them to #1. where did conestoga come from? depth could be a problem but a great race this weekend. DTW have talented FR and SO and tight spread. They will be competitive this year but the future looks very bright. North Penn had a 45sec spread without running their #4 and #5 varsity guys. Despite that they hung with Conestoga and DTW. Can't wait to see next weeks Carlisle meet.

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  3. Makes no sense to move a team around when they haven't even run yet. Why not just TBD Henderson or omit them altogether?

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    1. Are you saying to omit henderson? They are definitely a top 3 team. Why would you do that?

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    2. Nothing to rank them on to date.

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    3. They destroyed at Oakbourne relays, which was measured accruately and had a hill and everything.

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    4. WCH beat #9 DTW handedly at Oakborne.

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    5. Oakborne Relays may be the most important race of the year

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  4. Any chance you can give some love to small schools in a non-AAA ranking? Same guy as before, but that Masterman win was legit. Possibly the best team the Philadelphia Public League has had in the past 20 years, and certainly the best since they joined the PIAA.

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    1. If you look at malvern they wouldnt be an AAA school if they weren't independent so this seems like more a combined lost

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  5. Penncrest isnt even in the top 15? Wow

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  6. Can you simply explain why Carlisle, a team who was 2nd to State College by 7 at PSU and who beat them in a dual meet at every position, isn't even on the watch list?

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    1. Yeah that's ridiculous, Carlisle definitely deserves a top 10 spot.

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    2. Carslie isn't on that list for 3 reasons:
      1. The just missed list is usually for teams who are on my mind that particular weekend. (which is why Penncrest isn't on the list this week)
      2. Carlisle lost to State College when SC:
      a) didn't run Mulligan (their #3/4)
      b) SC was on an up week for millage. Not sure what Carlisle was. I'm sure their down week will be for their invitational, which SC's was for Foundation.
      c) It was a fairly small invitational with lower competition, with hurts SC since they're a tigher packed team. More competition the better SC does ranking wise.
      If I had to give Carlisle a ranking off the top of my head I would give them around 13 or 14th in the state.

      And to respond to one of the comments about giving love to other non-AAA schools I should have a post out either Wednesday or Thursday discussing that topic! Something that's been on my mind and developing in a word document.

      --ForrestCRN

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  7. Good list except Dwest should probably be in the just missed list. They've a team of the future, with a lot of young runners but no front runners this year. Their 5K times from Bulldog will probably be their pr's for the season.

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    1. Lol most of them beat previous prs at the dual meet today^

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    2. That course is short too.

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  8. Seems like it's a down year for depth in the state. I can't see anyone pulling a North Penn and knocking off NA, WC, or O'Hara. But that's just me.

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  9. Down year for XC... but for track, this year will be maybe more amazing than the last.

    -RTJ

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  10. You got names wrong for freedom(11).

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  11. Team wise the state seems to have been declining depth wise for a while now. XC is a bit more difficult to tell, but 3 to 6 years ago 4x8's in PA were epic at the state meet and it would take a sub 7:50 effort to medal. Now it's really fallen off which is sad to see as the 4x8 is my second favorite event in track and field.

    As for XC individually this year is incredible for AAA. Last season was amazing because all across the board in A, AA, and AAA there were just fantastic battles for the title up front with all of the races hitting 16:00 or sub 16. But AAA this year should see 5 to 7 guys sub 16 in my opinion. And 2 teams having a really good shot at going to nationals once again from PA. That's special if you ask me.

    --ForrestCRN

    P.S. As for Freedom, what names did I get wrong? I like to know the mistakes I made so I can fix everything, thanks! :)

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  12. Brian Delany is not part of Freedom.

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  13. The state may be in decline but the Chesmont league isn't in the least. Last year they had 22 of the top 50 at the District 1 championship and sent 4 of the 5 teams to states. They may not get the 4 teams this year but 25 of the top 50 is very possible.

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    1. Three of those teams face off in a dual meet today, WCH vs WCE vs DTW. You can bet that course will be measured accurately.

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    2. What course is that? And do you think WCH is going to go all out especially with their 1st Invite this Saturday?

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    3. Not sure who the home team is, WCH usually runs at Oakbourne, which is a challenging course, WCE uses Rustin for their home course which is a little quicker than Oakbourne. I say WCH goes all out for the team win but let's Cummings and/or Diestelow take off for 1 & 2 if they want it.

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    4. The race is at Oakbourne. The course is 3.04 miles. They've run the same course since 2005. Course record=15:19-Kyle Dawson-Coatesville. Henderson SR=15:31-Chris Aldrich in that same race. It's a challenging course.

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    5. That course is no joke. Having run it before I can say it's reminiscent of the state meet course at Hershey.

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    6. Long, uphill finish. If the WCE top two want to win, WCH will probably let them so they'll need to break away after the first mile and come in at about 16:40. If they stay with the WCH pack, they'll probably be a finishing sprint and a winning time around 16:55 by whoever wants it in the end.

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    7. WCE WCH and DTW results. Russel 15:20 Cummings 15:30s Barchet 15:54 Stratman 16:05 Knapp 16:05 Diestelow 16:09 Collins 16:10 Moy 16:20

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    8. WCH won, DTW second, WCE last

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  14. I don't think any Henderson guys will ever "let" an East guy beat them and vice versa. 5-7 guys will break 16. If the Henderson guys can't run hard on Wednesday and come back and run hard again on Saturday, then why have they been training all summer.

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    1. That's a good point, but I still think the goal is get the dual meet wins. They ran as a pack against Avon Grove and came in at 17:40 on a quick course.

      There's no need to go low at every race. Carslile is a big meetSaturday, why not be fresh? And no way 5-7 guys break 16 on that Oakbourne course in a dual meet, even with this good weather today.

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    2. Henderson "let" guys win their XC invite last year when they turned it into a glorified workout.

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  15. Top 10 "A" teams:

    1 Masterman
    2 Saegertown
    3 Northeast
    4 Northeast Bradford
    5 West Middlesex
    6 Our lady of the sacred heart
    7 Maplewood
    8 Elk Lake
    9 Central Cambria
    10 New Hope Solebury

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  16. West Chester East ran a middle schooler at foundation?

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    1. Something messed up and all of the WCE freshman are listed as 8th graders.

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