The only real question about the 3k is: How good will this field be?
I am amazing by all of these comments hating on the 3k this
season, when the field is just slightly weaker than it was last season and it’s
quite deep. Usually there are only 8 to 10 guys qualified by this point in the
season, but so far we’ve got 15 runners with the SQS and quite a few runners
right on the cusp.
The 3k history is all over the place and so instead I will
discuss the strength of this season as a whole. It may seem as though this
article is similar to what Etrain wrote, but I was thinking on the same lines
going into this article and we happen to write similarly.
Let’s first look at the definite in the 3k: Dominic Deluca,
Colin Martin, Christian Kardish, Chris Cummings, Jake Brophy, Patrick Reilly,
Paul Power, Billy McDevitt, Casey Comber, Andrew Marston, Jonathan Perlman, and
Cole Nissley. That’s a list of absolute studs. I have also heard rumors Kevin
James may go for the 3k/4x8 double and Ross Wilson might go 3k/DMR double as
well, which seems to be Kardish’s plan (or at least it makes the most sense to
me). The only guy with the SQS who probably will not race as Brendan Bilotta
(Mile/DMR). On the other side of the coin Scott Mason missed the SQS by .01 and
will get in for sure, while Matt Mcgoey and one other North Allegheny runner
will get another opportunity this weekend to get the standard. Mcgoey ran
9:05.93 two weekends ago and I have no doubt he’ll be able to get the time.
Jack DiCintio might also be able to get a petition in after a strong 9:02
performance at Kevin Dare.
So it seems like we got quite a deep field to me, being headlined
by AA state XC Champion Dominic Deluca who is on quite the rampage after missing
out on XC Nationals. He ran a SOLO 8:44 which gives him the state 3k lead and
he just dropped a 4:22 bomb this past weekend, leading from wire to wire. Both
of these times are faster than Max Norris ran last season (4:26/8:48) going
into the state meet (who just ran 8:30.08 in the 3k two weekends ago). Deluca
is an fantastic shape and has way more speed than I expected, I am on the
bandwagon for sure.
Colin Martin has been no slouch this indoor season either,
silently running a solo 8:46.98 two weekends ago and this past weekend running
9:13.95 for 3200m at the SPIRE showcase; he won by 4 seconds. That conversion
is ~8:36, which is two seconds faster than Russell ran going into the state
meet last season. He and Deluca will have a battle, no question and the Martin’s
are known for strong finishing speed (his brother dropped a 29.0 last 200m
outdoor for the win in terrible conditions). Running a PR in the 3200m indoors
is incredible (his previous best was 9:14.73).
So it seems we will have at least two runners under 8:35 at
the state meet, much like last season, now who will be behind them?
Christian Kardish ran a fantastic 8:47 at Kevin Dare,
proving he is back and is the real deal in the 3k. He reminds me a lot like
Norris in that he was a very strong 1600m runner as a sophomore and went
through some injury issues as a junior who is breaking out in the 3k indoors
(obviously Norris had a much better XC season). I believe Kardish can break the
8:40 mark. And I believe he’ll have some people to keep him company.
Jake Brophy is running like an absolute animal recently,
outkicking FL finalist Ross Wilson is no joke. Chris Cummings ran 8:50 early on
and has been running the Mile recently, much like Norris did last season. I
have no doubt sub 8:45 will be in his future. Patrick Reilly, Paul Power, Casey
Comber, and Andrew Marston are all locks to break 8:50 as well, giving us 9
young men with the ability to go sub 8:50 at states.
Those comments are made without mentioning the 3rd
and 4th place XC runners from AAA States who both went to Nationals
in Ross Wilson and Kevin James. Both have the state standard and could very
well choose to run this event instead of the Mile. It might hurt their relays a
bit, but Wilson is doing his DMR a huge favor by running it in the first place,
and it makes sense for him to go after the 3k. On the opposite token Kevin
James is on a very strong 4x8 team that will look to compete with State College
for the state title, and possibly the 4x8 indoor record. Will they let him
choose this event over the Mile, leaving him with less recovery time? If only
one of them run it, that gives us 10 guys under 8:50 which is fantastic for the
state meet and we don’t know Mcgoey’s potential either. Not to mention Jonathan
Perlman broke out very well at the end of last season and just ran 8:58 and
should drop a lot of time. Billy McDevitt is no joke either as he ran a
fantastic 8:56 at Yale.
Do not sleep on the 3k, because it will be a race to be remembered
this season. All medalists might not be under 8:43 like last season, but no
question it will take 8:48 to medal this year, which gives us the second
deepest year in state history.
--ForrestCRN
I know everyone is liking using Norris as an example of a guy coming in without the super low times and then dropping a big performance but he is the exception. He dropped that 8:28 out of nowhere then went on to an 8:25 at Penn Relays and a 4:12 1600 at the big Henderson meet. That's going from darn good to elite overnight, it just doesn't happen that often. I'm not saying it can't happen this year but that's probably a once every 5 years phenomenon. - JEB
ReplyDeleteYeah I heard Kevin James is doing mile 800 3k 4x8 and 4x4 but that's just a rumor.....
ReplyDeleteTHIS RUMOR JUST IN – Henderson has entered 7 guys in the 3000 at tomorrow night’s Bible Baptist College High School Invitational Last Chance Meet
DeleteThe only reason people are hating on the 3k is because Russell isn't in it. There are a lot of really good guys but choosing the winner is a crapshoot. Any one of the top 6 guys in the field could win, there are no standouts this year like we had last year, it will still be an exciting race to watch. I'm calling Colin Martin for the win on this one, his 3200 time was sick.
ReplyDeleteI don't think people are hating on the 3000, it's just the way the indoor schedule lines up that many of the top guys have relay obligations so it's doesn't make sense for them to run it. That and most probably expected the big XC teams like WCH, OH and NA to be heavily represented in the 3000 when right now it looks like none of those three will have an entry. That said, as Forrest points out, it's still loaded and could be one of the best races of the day.
Delete- RJJL
Look for WCH to dominate the 3200 in Spring track though, I predict. If they are focused on Indoor Nationals-dmr and maybe 4x1mile, they need those distance guys to stay focused on the shorter distances for now.
Deletemolino qualified last night with a8:58 at state college in the 3 k
ReplyDeleteI see Henderson is running an outdoor meet today. Are they going to run a 3k there and get some guys qualified?
ReplyDeleteI thought the piaa said outdoor meets can't qualify anyone for indoor states. Maybe it's more of a tune-up for States?
DeleteThere's some dissention in the ranks over this.
DeleteI heard that too, that some big names are fed up over being in the wrong races.
DeleteCollins, Stratman and Barchet all went sub 9:30 in the 3200 as juniors so they’d have 3000 medal potential as seniors, especially Barchet. It looks like they're only running in the mile, in the slow heat no less, and that’s it. Maybe Collins comes back to run the 400 in the DMR.
DeleteO'Hara just made the DMR a closer race if they go there instead of the 4x800.
Smh on that one. Kelly is no doubt a great coach but I can't figure out why he didn't give some other guys chances to better their times so they could shoot for a faster heat, especially in that mile. Other than his superstar Russell, looks like no one will make it into the fast heat.
DeleteMakes me think that was by design to keep certain guys fresher for his precious dmr.
Somebody else brought that up before-downside to running very few meets. You may only get 1 or 2 shots at qual'ing.
DeleteMaybe the guys all agreed to give up individual medal potential for a dmr one? Except for Russell, of course. I have to think Moy could have had a legit shot if he was able to run the mile more than once.
I’m surprised too. My guess is they probably decided before the season to focus on Nationals, probably trying to win both the DMR and the 4x1600. Giving up the 3000 would allow them to all workout together, with basically the same focus on the mile. In theory they could also reduce mileage and injury potential which would be helpful since they’ll have little break between seasons with Nationals mid March and Penn Relays just four weeks later.
DeleteWith Russell, Moy, Barchet, Stratman and Collins, that’s 5 guys who have gone below 4:25. Keeping them all milers covers them for illness or injury and gives some flexibility as needed for the two relays at Nationals. I can’t think of any other reasons they’d give up the 3000, unless they’re just sick of running so many laps indoors.
- RJJL
^^^ That makes too much sense. More likely they just forgot to enter more races.
DeleteO'Hara-10:22 at the MOC-splits? Will they go that way at States?
ReplyDeleteBelfatto-3:09
Delete400-54
Smart-1:57
James-4:22
That's a tough choice. They're up against a stacked State College in the 4x800 or stacked WCH in the DMR. The should probably go 4x800. - JEB
DeleteI'm very impressed with Wilson's 4:21/ 8:56 double. If he runs the mile at states I see him top 5.
ReplyDeleteFrancis just arrived on the scene. 4:19
DeleteI see Francis being runner up
DeleteFrancis did not"just" arrive on the scene. Don't insult him like that. I expect no less from him.
DeleteSorry, it wasn't meant as an insult. I meant he arrived in the top mile scene, that's like a 7 second drop for the season. I know what he can do, I kind of thought he'd focus just on the 800 at states but after today I'd say he's a huge threat in the mile.
DeleteThought he dropped a 4:22 at the Armory. My math says that is a 3 second drop.
DeleteThat was a 1600, it's shorter than a mile. Either way he was real impressive today.
DeleteAnyone know when the accepted entries list comes out today?
ReplyDeleteMcGoey and Molino have both qualified for the 3k now.
ReplyDelete