Well my spring break has officially started, so it looks
like it’s time to blog!
One thing I did do was check out Etrain’s projected heat
sheets and I agree with how he had them set up. Here is a link to check them
out: http://www.therealtrain.blogspot.com/2014/02/pa-states-quick-thoughts.html
. (Only mistake I saw was a small
spelling error of Malvern Prep Colin Wills, he spelled it Willis. But the kid
is a sophomore and Etrain probably hasn’t seen the name yet). Well set up
though bud!
I think I’m going to post one at a time and put up the links
for the other ones since they’ll be coming out ‘rapid’ fire throughout the day.
I will be going in order of when the events are and finishing off the posting
with a team score projection.
All of this being said, LETS GET STARTED!
MILE
Heat one should be interesting since we’ve got Colin Abert
having just barely qualified and how he does could be a major toss-up. Could he
score from the slowest heat? Could he bring along XC medalist Van Kooten or
potential breakout stars in Wills and Sullivan?
I see Abert talking it out pretty hard (for the heat) in
~2:11 with a smaller pack not too far behind him. I think Colin Wills continues
his strong season (he’s run 3:14 this season for 1200) and takes down Abert in
the end, winning in 4:27.8 to Abert’s 4:28.0. Look out for Alex Milligan of
State College to have a strong race as well. I just wanted to point out that 3
sophomores are in this heat, one in the second heat, and we’ve got another one
in the fast heat, that’s rare to see.
Most years there is one or two runners who will sneak onto
the medal stand from the middle heat of the Mile and this heat has got a lot of
potential with two 4:16 guys in Moy and Groh along with Grace and Coakley who
are having very solid seasons.
I hate to say this, but it seems like North Penn peaked a
bit early this season, but I see Ryan Grace helping these guys to some fast
times. Moy and Groh seem to be itching for a big race and I think they are
going to end up blazing a quick last 400m. Moy has more speed than Groh does
and I see him taking the heat win. Don’t sleep on Mike Kolor, the sophomore
might pop off something big. If he can just go out and race he’s got a lot of
potential. I don’t see the XC state medalist’s Fowler, Louco, or Barchet
getting onto the medal stand, although Folwer dropped a lot of time last
weekend.
Moving now to the boys that will be really moving in the
fast heat! Henderson looked like they would have a scare in the DMR last
weekend with Altoona and O’Hara looking very strong, but both choose the 4x8.
This being said I think this will allow Russell to go all out in the Mile
without having to worry about the DMR. He is a team player when needed, but I
have no doubt he wants that state record and there does not seem to be any
consequences in terms of going for it. He’s lead from the start in all of the
big invitationals that he’s been in, so we know he can run fast from the front.
I’ll make the implicit explicit: Tony Russell will go for the State Meet
Record.
Where does that leave the rest of the field? We’ve got some
really strong runners and I’m really excited about how this field has turned
out. Hoey, Bilotta, and Wilson have looked really strong all season in the Mile
with Hoey taking Wilson down last weekend. We’ve got 800m guys moving up in
distance in Belfatto, Caldwell, Smith, Becich, and Cooper. I really like Smith
and Becich coming from out west who ran both of their times without much
competition, how much faster can these boys go?
I see Hoey, Bilotta, Wilson, and Belfatto leading the charge
together, probably with Wilson doing most of the leading work. Behind that
group I see Ritz leading the array of
kickers.
1. Tony Russell – 4:11.97
2. Brendan Bilotta – 4:18.73
3. Jaxson Hoey – 4:18.89
4. Ross Wilson – 4:19.41
5. James Smith – 4:21.03
6. Sam Ritz – 4:21.23
7. Kevin Moy – 4:21.96
8. Jim Belfatto – 4:22.45
9. Jeff Groh – 4:23.10
10. Michael Becich – 4:23.71
I do see Russell grabbing that record and I’m really excited
about it. He’s in amazing shape right now and I have no doubt will do it.
Bilotta holds onto Wilson and Hoey’s pace and out kicks them both in the final
lap for the silver. I see either Michael Becich or James Smith having a really
big break out race and jumping into the top 6. Right now I see Smith being that
guy, but don’t be surprised if Becich pulls it off. I might be stretching with
Ritz here, but he’s a 4:11 guy who will hopefully be rounding into great shape,
seeing as this will be a tune up for nationals. Moy will get in there from the
middle heat, and Belfatto falls off a fast early pace to snag the last spot.
One sleeper/dark horse for a medal in my mind is Billy
Caldwell. He’s 6th on the list, but I’m really not sure where he
will fall. I don’t think he’ll be able to hang with a fast pace, nor does he
have the speed to keep with guys like Moy, Smith, and Becich. Maybe I’m just
dead wrong and he’ll be a top 3 guy, we shall see.
--ForrestCRN
Caldwell is a great closer. He always finishes well. He just has to stay in the race. Will a couple of guys try to run with Russell or will they just run for 2nd?
ReplyDelete^agree. Caldwell is on the medal stand.
Deletereally surprised neither of us picked caldwell to medal haha, that guy may be a real bracket buster of sorts!
ReplyDeletegood stuff bro
On paper this is obviously a race for 2nd place. Russell having an 8 second lead over the field at that level is like 4:45 milers going up against a 4:25 guy. But the race isn’t run on paper, it’s a state championship and anything can happen.
ReplyDeleteSince it’s Russell’s race to lose I’d expect him to use his standard approach so far this year, hang with the crowd through a solid first quarter and then push the race over the middle four laps, then cruise in for the victory. I don’t think he’ll go after the meet record. He already has the State record and while the meet record would be nice, there’s no need to go for it, presumably running hard all alone. Now if someone surprises and is right there with him a sub 3:10 ¾ mark it could be different, but that’s not likely. And the fact the WCH has nobody in the 3000 indicates they’re aiming for big performances in relays at nationals. So unless they put state meet records on the goals list at the beginning I don’t see any reason to push for it. Forrest seems pretty confident Russell will go after the record so I’m wondering if he knows something. But in my view, Russell runs this race hard because he has to since the field is too good, but not any harder than he needs to win unchallenged down the stretch. I hope I’m wrong because it’d be nice to see the record go down, but I’m just not seeing it.
Since everyone knows what Russell can do and the way he races, they should be running their own race and pretty much ignoring him. But, I can see a guy like Hoey taking a shot and going with him. Hoey is very talented, ambitious, gutsy and just inexperienced enough to maybe try to hang with him and who knows, he might just be dragged to a huge PR. Wilson is the other guy I see keeping 2nd in his sights. Ritz is one guy who could have a big drop to sub 4:20, since he has that big 4:11 pr from last year. In the 2nd heat, I like the possibility of Groh and Moy going at it and maybe grabbing medals from that heat. If Moy’s 1200 split out of the DMR a few weeks ago was accurate at 3:06, that tells me he’s in sub 4:20 shape. It’s too bad he’s not in the fast heat.
I’d love to see some huge drops but my prediction is more conservative:
Russell 4:16.1 (through 1200 in 3:11, cruising to the win)
Hoey 4:18.3 (a separated from the pack 2nd most of the way, caught by Wilson with 200 to go and then retaking him at the end)
Wilson 4:18.8
Ritz 4:19.6
Moy 4:19.8
5 guys 4:20-4:22
I’m really disappointed Francis opted out of the mile though I certainly understand the reasoning. He’s got a legitimate shot at 800 gold and he’s coming back later too. I’m looking forward to seeing him in the 1600 come outdoor, I think that guy could turn out to be a 4:13ish or so 1600. Also too bad Ritz and Brehm aren’t in top form. If either of them were at their best I’d agree the 4:12 record would fall.
- RJJL
Let Tony go after the record, he deserves it.
DeleteCould you please explain why you guys aren't going after states seriously? Every varsity guy got just one shot to qualify for the mile and that's it, no other open races? Moy no shot to get in the first heat where he could do some damage? Is it really nationals or bust?
DeleteFirst of all, Tony will do Tony. Pretty sure he doesn't need permission nor does he "deserve"it more than anyone else. And I too find it weird that WCH never ran a 3k, and guys like Moy & Thompson ran only 1 open race all season. Maybe the coach doesn't want them running hard races at States but I think it sucks for them.
DeleteGuys who didn't qual the first time around did get a second shot. That's what I think happened to Barchet and maybe Collins.
DeleteI guess they agreed to take one for the team.
DeleteCaldwell will be top 6. The dude dropped a 4:23 after two weeks of indoor training. He trained through nike nationals until the first meet. He took Meet of Champions as an easy race. You all will be shocked. It is disrespectful to talk a runner down like that. Give predictions, that's all. You took it too far by repeatedly saying he won't medal. I hate seeing this. Also, most of you need to stop talking about Henderson so much. They're good and we all know that already. No need to "predict" that.
ReplyDeleteStop telling people what they can and can't talk about, you sound like a sour grapes communist. Henderson runners are approaching state records, that kind of performance is going to get a lot of talk. There's no disrespect of others. And if Caldwell is as good as you say he'll prove it tomorrow and you can rip these predictions all you want.
DeleteSorry we finally have a team that's making noise on a national level year in and out. No other team has consistently pooped out amazing individuals and teams like coach kelly has in the past 20 years. CRN used to be legit but they never made half as much noise at the national level. And coatesville only did it once. Why would we censor our states best team and individuals? Would it make it okay to talk about them if they were all on different teams?
Deleteindividually most of the runners on hendersons team are overshadowed by Russell and all the talk about him anyway.
DeleteDude what about Brehm?? He kicks ass!
ReplyDeleteWhat about Brehm? He's not running this weekend so your comment is irrelevant.
DeleteI guess we won't have to worry about anyone being tripped in the 800 final now
DeleteSo are you saying this should be an All-Caldwell post? What the hell, dude? Lighten up, you sound like his mother or something. He's an awesome runner with lots of upward potential. For the record I think he'll medal at States in a great time, but I also think he may be in danger of overtraining/overracing. If he trained through XCRegionals and went right into Indoor with no break, he's not doing himself any favors. Just ask Chris Cummings.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something here? Never heard anyone say anything disparaging about Caldwell. He should have a great States meet. I can't speak to his training regimen but I hope he doesn't overdo it. Have seen too many high school guys push themselves too hard and end up injured or burnt out.
ReplyDeleteAs for all the WCH posts, I don't mind them-this is a great team that will be breaking up this year. Also, I think this blog tends to be district-1 oriented. Not a bad thing, just the way it evolved but I do appreciate Forrest's inclusion of all the Pa runners. I am especially curious to see how the western part of the state does this weekend. They've had some bad luck with weather and facility malfunctions, etc...they could be in rare form. I wouldn't underestimate them.
Good luck to all the runners this weekend...you guys do PA proud.
I'll be excited to see the western part of pa once they start doing something outdoors. I don't really believe its a district 1 oriented blog. NA got loads of talk when they were doing well outdoors. Equal to that of Henderson before states. When a runners do well their districts usually back em up and bring them up on the blog... its just that district 1 has the best runners every year.. Russell, wilson, Logue, and the Henderson crew. State college has had loads of talk and they're from district 6. Kavin James and his team get loads of talk too and they're d12. District 1 definitely had not had the focus on this blog.
DeleteD1 is ridiculous. Every year there are very solid runners who hit the outdoor SQL at districts and don't get to go to states because on limits on D1, there was like 5 guys last year and a few relay teams. It's far and away the toughest district. But it is also the largest so their is going to be a lot of D1 talk.
Delete