Track Carnival Preview!!!

Hey guys, I was going to make a video for this, but I think videos work better for results and discussion rather than previews. The snow is coming down like CRAZY in the Lehigh Valley right now, but I’m really hoping the meet will still be on for Saturday! 

I am going to do the preview in order that the events will be going off.

Mile: There are a lot of pretty big names that will be racing the Mile and there should be a large number of guys going sub 4:32.43 to get the state qualifying standard. With all of the big names I am going to discuss the runners by class and then put my top 8 finishers down at the end with a bit of a race prediction.

Freshman: Only two in the race, but Matthew Scarpill of CB South impressed me in XC as he ran sub 16:40 twice at Lehigh and ran 4:46 in December. He should be in 4:40 shape which is great. He could be the next CB South star.

Sophomores: Matt Kravitz is a guy I’ve been a big fan of since his strong races in the summer at AAU nationals. He also won XC districts up in the Poconos and ran a solid 4:36 earlier this season. He’s very strong and I believe he will grab the SQS. Alex Milligan should be joining him in this task from State College. He is a real stud and has run some strong 800m legs this season so far, I see him at 4:31. The class continues its strength with Jacob Toczko from Tunkhannock, a team who rarely, if ever runs indoors. I bet he breaks 4:40, but I don’t see him being too quick on the track despite his strong XC credentials. The same goes for Dominic Hockenbury who I see at 4:35, even though he is the best XC runner out of this very, very impressive list of sophomores. It is rounded out by Colin Wills of Malvern Prep who has run some great 1200m legs this season and I’d love to see that translate to a full Mile. He won last week, and I believe he’s got the SQS in him. I believe 2 of the 5 studs get the SQS, despite 3 or 4 of them possibly being in the shape to do it.

Juniors: Colin Abert had a lot of issues with sickness and injury through December and part of January and is looking to make his big comeback with this race. The young man is so good that I can’t imagine him not breaking 4:30, but then again he hasn’t look good at all this indoor season and may be still recovering, so I put him at 4:35, but he’s always one to surprise and I could see him going as low as 4:25. His Miler counterpart Sam Ritz has had a pretty successful season so far, and I’m pretty surprised that he isn’t going to Millrose. This slightly discourages me and makes me believe he and his coaches aren’t as confident in his training right now to send him, since his outdoor time last season should have gotten him in no problem. He did run 4:22 earlier this year however and in all likely hood should win this race or be in the top 3. Paul Power had a strong start and we haven’t see him for a big and I have no doubt his training is going great, the young man peaks perfectly and had a breakout XC year, look for him to go 4:28. Jonathan Perlman is much like Power and just popped off the 3k standard and he looks to display some more speed this weekend, but I think Power beats him out. Alex Knapp hasn’t shown too much out of Henderson, but he is the future of their team and I hope he can succeed on the track. I’m surprised he’s not in the 3k since it would seem that would be his stronger event. I think he barely gets the SQS in 4:31.80. Another XC breakout star Josh Smith will be racing who we haven’t really seen in open races too much, I’d love for him to grab the standard.

Seniors: The senior line-up is also very impressive lead by some strong 3k runners in Chris Cummings and Dominic Deluca who are looking to pick up some speed before the state meet where they’ll be battling for top 5 medal spots over the 3000m distance. Neither runner has much speed in my opinion, so they’ll need an even pace to run well. For the most part they should get an honest pace, but they might have to do some leading and I doubt either will break 4:25. They’ll be trying to get away from the 800/Mile guys in Austin Cooper (UM), Liam O’Connell (PB), and Aaron Lauer (RL). Cooper just ran a 4:25 split for his team’s DMR, O’Connell has had a very strong season running 4:29 at Kevin Dare, while Lauer hasn’t raced too much. Cooper is one of the favorites going into the race as he’s got the strength and speed combo that is better than anyone in the field. Also guys to look for are Hanson of Randor, Garton who is coming off injury and ran the 3k last weekend (seems he’s slowly moving down in distance which I like to see), and Tyler Vella who ran 4:36 against Kravitz a few weekends ago. 

1. Sam Ritz – 4:24.32

2. Austin Cooper – 4:24.76

3. Paul Power – 4:27.92

4. Dominic Deluca – 4:27.98

5. Jonathan Perlman – 4:28.43

6. Chris Cummings – 4:28.81

7. Matt Kravitz – 4:29.90

8. Liam O’Connell – 4:30.12

800m

The time has arrived! Zach Brehm, outdoor state 800m champion opens up his season in the distance! Oh boy, let’s go!! Many district 3 teams rarely run very well during indoors, ex. Cumberland Valley, and Brehm is a big dude making distance running indoors even more difficult, all this being said however he and fellow junior Alek Sauer should have a fantastic race on their hands. Lehigh’s track is fast and the two of them will be going at it. Someone who will be looking to hand with them is Graham Allen from SCHA who hasn’t ran much in the past month, but did run 1:58.79 at the Armory in late December. Gunnar Sjoreen recently ran 2 flat and Brendan Stec of MP has got a 2:02 to his name from a month ago as well. Another guy to look for is McCaskey’s Ryan Myers who placed 7^th at Kevin Dare just breaking 2 in 1:59.90.

Other names to mention: Greg Kotchick of Strath Haven; he’s only a junior, but Jack Huemmler talked him up quite a big and SH’s relay did run 8:15 this season and I don’t know their legs at all, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were splitting 2 flat. Eric Heatwole of State College ran 2:03 earlier this season and has a lot of potential as well with all his fantastic training partners who will be at the Amory. And lastly Jabari Freeman of Abington whose team has run some solid relays and he’s always had strong potential but never totally panned out.

1. Alek Sauer – 1:56.90

2. Zach Brehm – 1:57.12 – I can’t believe I’m picking against Brehm, this is probably a terrible decision and he’s going to go 1:55 low, but oh well.

3. Graham Allen – 1:58.93

4. Ryan Myers – 2:00.71

5. Eric Heatwole – 2:01.34

6. Gunnar Sjoreen – 2:01.36

7. Greg Kotchick – 2:01.85

8. Jabari Freeman – 2:01.97

3000m Run

Well the 3k is also stacked and I really wish from a fans perspective that Cummings would drop the Mile so he could race fresh against Griffin Molino and Patrick Reilly. Boy, are those some XC STUDS. Reilly has dropped some great times this year, but Molino is just a flat out beast. I’m not sure what Molino’s speed is going to be like, but I see him taking this race. Paul Power will be doubling back with Cummings and I think they will work together once again. Cole Nissley will be looking for the SQS of 9:00.23.

 Lapansky of Easton ran some nice 3k marks so far this season as has Seth Slavin (freshman who ran 10:05 for 2 Miles), and also keep an eye on Owen Seeber of CV: all 3 of these underclassman have very bright futures. The junior class has three more strong candidates in the race: Will Swart who was Henderson’s 8^th man in XC and should be running pretty well, Jack Tidball of Tunkhannock who is jumping in an indoor race which is exciting, along with Matt Beyerle of State College. (Also shout out to Alexander Balla and Chris Kelly).

I think this race will be fast from the gun and Molino will not hesitate to try and take the legs out of everyone else.

1. Griffin Molino – 8:46.32

2. Patrick Reilly – 8:48.71

3. Cole Nissley – 8:54.36

4. Paul Power – 8:59.99

5. Chris Cummings – 9:01.53
6. Alexander Balla - 9:07.93

7. Jack Tidball – 9:10.17

8.Kevin Lapansky – 9:11.40

9. Will Swart – 9:12.88

4x800m

Most of the 4x8’s will be guys doubling back and it will be workouts, but many of these teams have been holding runners out. Also a lot of teams are entered in both the 4x8 and the DMR which makes this even more difficult. Personally I’d like to see Avon Grove run a hot squad since they got the SQS in December and we haven’t seen them since. Abington is another team with only 1 runner doubling back and they should be pretty strong if they run hot. Pennsbury should win if they double Sauer and O’Connell back as both runners will be able to go ~2 flat on the double giving them a huge advantage over most of the teams in this field. SH just ran 8:13 last week and none of those guys are in open evens so they’ll be in the mix. I also do not know what Freedom will do or even if their guys will be strong track runners. Malvern Prep is only in the 4x8, will they run it hot? If so it should be an easy victory with two legs doubling back in Stec and Wills who are great relay runners. 

Distance Medley

I am more excited about the DMR and I expect the following teams to really bring their ‘A’ game: Carlisle, Conestoga, Easton, Radnor, West Chester East, Upper Merion, and Wyomissing Area. I’d like to see Pennsbury go ‘A team’ as well, but I doubt it.

The meet record is 10:39.98 which was a team led off by Tom Mallon, and I think that record goes down as Carlisle keeps everyone fresh but Brehm. Jon Carroll should be a great 1200m leg and I am very excited to see how he fairs. Easton has a lot of potential with Lapansky and Abert, but I doubt they’ve got an 800m leg, and both of those guys are on the double to it will be more of a workout. Conestoga has some great pieces and should be able to challenge Carlisle for a bit if they bring the heat. Marston just ran a great 3k and Sjoreen will be doubling back, but still a solid leg. Radnor isn’t racing Connor Holm and with Hanson on the double they could very well get the SQS they’ve been looking for. With Cummings doubling WC East will try and show they can run the relay without him, freeing him up for the 3k at states. The pieces are there, but they’ve all got to be on to grab the standard. Hopefully the competition will help. Upper Merion’s got Cooper on the double, but he should be good to roll by the end of the meet once again as they look for the SQS after a solid 10:55 last weekend. Lastly, but not least by any stretch is Wyomissing Area who I believe will bring it this weekend. Jack DiCintio proved that he is one of the top sophomores in the state at Kevin Dare with his 9:02 3k, while Kyle Shinn is no slouch either after playing 5^th in XC. Lastly they’ve got a great 800m runner in Andrew Miller who ran 2:00.74 at Kevin Dare.

1. Carlisle – 10:37.31

2. Conestoga – 10:45.87

3. West Chester East – 10:48.99

4. Radnor – 10:51.62

5. Wyomissing Area – 10:52.78

6. Upper Merion – 11:00.80

Also someone in the comments posted that Candy Corn's don't taste like anything. This is blatantly false. They are amazing. Comment Hearts on the other hand I do agree have done down the tube in recent years.

--ForrestCRN