Mile Questions

Sorry I had 4 hours of night class and some more work to get done afterwards so it's Noon today and I am updating the post. I will also have one out tonight about the 3k, although Etrain did a nice post about it on his blog called: www.therealtrain.blogspot.com

There is not as much historical consistency in terms of winning time or medalling in the Mile as there is the 800m, so I won’t bog you guys down with too much History. Since 2006 it has taken sub 4:25 to medal at the state meet with the exception of 2008 when two runners medalled with 4:27’s, despite the fact that 4 runners went under 4:20. 24 runners have gone sub 4:20 in the past 8 years, meaning an average of 3 runners go under that mark. Interestingly enough back in 2009 Ivon Milic-Straklj won in just 4:21.19 (went to Haverford, a D3 school), while just the next year it took Chris O’Sullivan a 4:21.64 effort to place 8^th!  The Mile has always been quite odd at the PA state meet, but let me try and breakdown this year’s big questions going into the meet:

1.  Will Tony Russell look to break Paul Springer’s Meet Record of 4:12.61 that was set back in 2007?

2. Will the consistency of 3 runners sub 4:20 continue this season? If so, who will these runners be?

3. What will be the 8^th place medaling time (approx.)?

4. Lastly: Who will run this event? With the winner so clear and away, yet the 800m so stacked and the 3k so wide open, what will runners choose?

Now, I will address these questions below, feel free to answer them your self’s in the comments so we can get some good discussion going.

1. I personally do not see why Tony Russell will not go after the state meet record for a variety of reasons. First off he has run under the state meet time twice this season so he is clearly capable of doing so, it’s not like it will take a big PR for him to go after it. Secondly, I see his biggest strength is exactly that: his strength. There will be some kickers in this field, per usual in the Mile, so Russell’s best option is to get far enough away from the field as he can. With only 1 other runner having gone sub 4:20 this season from PA if he takes it out hard there is no chance anyone will be able to stay with him. Lastly, Russell has not run the 3k this season which means his only option for a double will be the DMR. The 3k would have given him less of a break and I would understand if he was going for double gold in both open events if he would hold some back in the Mile. With the DMR his team has run 10:27 without him which is by far and away the top PA time of the year so far and with him they have run 10:15. If he feels dead after running a blazing Mile, I do not believe his DMR team will need him to grab the Gold. If he feels good you’ve got the option of putting him on either the 1200m or the Mile leg. Having amazing teammates like Moy make his life much easier when it comes to the relay. With all of this being said, I believe and hope that Tony Russell will go after the state meet record in two weeks.

2. Tony Russell seems to be an obvious candidate to run under 4:20, especially if he goes for the record. If he does go for it, this could throw a major wrench into the race, bringing up multiple questions: a) will anyone go with him? B) How will the pace be after him?

If he truly goes for it the only person I could see attempting to go with the pace is Jaxson Hoey of Malvern Prep who is the only other guy under 4:20 this season. Hoey is only a sophomore and we’ve seen him run very tough on multiple occasions, actually outkicking Russell at the Duece of Singer Farms. I know it wasn’t a ‘real’ race, but still the kid’s got speed and that’s another reason I see Russell wanting to get away from him. Even if they go out in ~2:07 I think Hoey doesn’t die too hard and can break 4:20 but he will fall off Russell no doubt. Behind that, how will the pace look? Some guys might just wait and the race could get really slow, but Colin Abert might try and lead a second pack in what would be a ‘suicide’ effort and help some guys under the mark. Here are is list of candidates I see with the ability to break the mark and who are likely, in my opinion, to run the Mile.

Jaxon Hoey (4:19.24) (enough said already)

Brendan Bilotta (4:21.28) – He’s run very, very well all season and is clearly improving. LaSalle peaks at the right time, especially in track. He ran that time on a flat track. I think he’s got the best shot at 3^rd.

Jim Belfatto (4:22.16) – Belfatto has had a very productive season and he’s been in some solid races. He’s got 2 seconds to drop, and he’d have to run an impressive race to break the mark, but it could be possible. Right now I do not have Kevin James on the list, since I see him running the 3k.

Billy Caldwell (4:23.96) Sam Ritz (4:24.03), and Michael Becich (4:24.50) – These are the 3 dark horses going into the race. All 3 have great 800m speed and have run nice Mile’s so far this season. Sam Ritz has a 4:11 PR but has not been as strong this season as I had hoped (looking for sub 4:20 by now), and he may not even attend the state meet. Caldwell’s got a big kick and did run 4:20 at the end of last outdoor season. It would be tough for him to PR indoors, but it could happen. Michael Becich ran that 4:24 solo at a meet earlier this season and must be in some pretty sick shape. I have no idea what to expect out of him, but he could drop a bomb and place 2^nd.

Super Dark Horse: Ross Wilson – Wilson ran 4:17 outdoors last season in the 1600m which really shocked me, but indoors this season he’s been a bit disappointing with a loss to Jake Brophy in the 3k and only running 4:26 so far this season. If he really pulls it all together he might be able to go under.

Last limbs: Jeff Groh and Kevin Moy – Both have some of the top PR’s coming into the season (both broke 4:17), but neither has run anything too telling so far this season. Moy has run 3:06 for a 1200m split however and if he can translate that to the Mile he could do big things. Groh is coming off injury so he should be making much larger strides than many of the other runners since he’s coming into shape a bit later, if he’s fully recovered watch for him to bring down the Hammer as well.

3. There is a lot of field potential behind all of these studs who could very well break 4:26 and possibly 4:25 at the state meet which include the following:
Reiny Barchet (4:27.24) - Barchet is an XC animal and is a clear distance guy to me. He's going to a very distance oriented team in Colorado next season and I'm shocked he's not in the open 3k. That being said I bet he can run ~4:23 at states if he chooses to run the open.

 Brad Faust (4:27.45) who had a really solid race at Kevin Dare and has fantastic XC credentials as he peaked perfectly. If he can do the same indoors I bet he can drop into the 4:22 range. 

Mitchell Coakley (4:27.55) - He surprised me this weekend at the Carnival and I bet will continue to drop time, especially on a banked track. But I don't see him doing much faster than the 4:24 high range.

Ultimately this field is pretty deep for the Mile going into the state meet and I have no doubt that it will take a sub 4:25 effort to get a medal this season. If the pace can be kept fast after Russell I could see it taking 4:23 low to medal at best.

4. I am still unsure what Kevin James will do, since the 3k is somewhat open, but no question Dominic Deluca will choose 3k and Kyle Francis will choose the open 800. I'm not sure what Ryan Grace will do as the relay's are important to North Penn, but he could very well grab himself a medal. He has been so strong all season. I also want to mention Mike Kolor who is just a sophomore that dropped a 4:28.61 converted 1600m this weekend! I'm hoping he can put together another solid race at states to truly prove he's another big stud for that sophomore class.

That's all for Now Folks! Feel free to rip me for putting Moy and Groh that far down the list, since I'm sure it's coming.

--ForrestCRN