800m State Preview

In the second distance race of the day we might see another state record go down, how awesome is that?? As I stated in the questions last week, this is the deepest top 4 I have ever seen. It’s rare you get 4 guys outdoors running under 1:54 going into district weekend. And not to mention we’ve got a very solid field behind all of them.

Before we get to the fast heat let’s check out the ‘Slow’ Heat. We’ve got some really interesting names and the ones with the best chance of medaling will be Holm, Ferraiolo and Thompson, in my opinion. Cooper will be on the double, Allen hasn’t been racing well, and O’Connell doesn’t have the pure speed to get into the 1:57 range. They’ll need to get out, because the fast heat will not be playing around. I think that’s what is going to make it so difficult for anyone to medal. I don’t see anyone falling off the pace out of the fast heat and I don’t think these guys will be able to run fast enough to get on the stand. Mercado is the only one who might fall off, but I think he has a really big race.

Wiseman, Logue, Cather, and Francis all have tons of speed, Cather has the best range, but Francis is probably the strongest. Wiseman has run some sick 600’s and has a great league and Logue has the ultimate kick. I can’t imagine this race not going out really hard. Francis, Wiseman, and Cather all love to take it out and they want it to be fast no question. Francis wouldn’t have gone with the 800 if he didn’t want the indoor record. I was talking with his high school teammate Matt French this past weekend and French thought he would be able to break the record, and frankly I believe the winner of this race will go under Endress’ 1:51.73. 

Looking at how these guys race it seems that the top group will roll through anywhere from 53.3-54.3 and I would guess Francis takes the lead. Wiseman let him go last time they raced and will be right on him, with Cather riding the train in 3^rd place. The real question is where will Logue be? Does he sit in 4^th right on those guys or in 6^th behind the next group? I personally hope he’s right there since it will make the race more interesting. 

If the state record is going down I see Wiseman or Cather taking the lead going into the last lap in 1:22.5-1:23.9. I do not think Francis will be able to lead wire to wire like Rivera did last season, and it makes sense that someone would challenge for the lead. The question again comes up where Logue will be. I don’t see him coming through faster than 1:24.2 giving him a sub 28 last lap to catch the field.

Francis will push on the backstretch and overtakes both Wiseman and Cather. Cather will hold second until the final straight away when Wiseman pushes past him and if Logue is in a strong enough position he will be able to take anywhere from 2-4^th. 

Behind this group more questions arise. Nick Smart and Alek Sauer have been in very even races, what happens when they get out fast? Eli Mercado will benefit from a fast pace I believe as well, and Wilhoite might like it as well. I think Mercado leads the next charge in 55 mid, Smart leading at 600 in 1:25.0 with Sauer and Mercado in 1:26.0 and Wilhoite in 1:26.2.

1. Kyle Francis – 1:51.64

2. Jeff Wiseman – 1:51.93

3. Joe Logue – 1:52.36

4. Will Cather – 1:52.72

5. Nick Smart – 1:55.23

6. Eli Mercado – 1:55.90

7. Dylin Wilhoite – 1:56.41

8. Alek Sauer – 1:56.85

9. Steve Thompson – 1:57.13

10. Andy Miller – 1:57.64

I see Francis just being too strong for this field to keep off. He’s thrown down sub 27 last laps on relays and is already a relay state champion and he knows what it takes to win. I see Logue as his biggest threat, but I don’t see Logue racing smart enough to get the win. Wiseman is really strong and the fastest guy in the field, but the extra distance hurts him in the end. From 500-700 he’s the best in the state in my mind. Cather is having an amazing year all around after getting a medal in XC he has incredible strength, but the 3 guys in front of him are All-stars. He did show up huge at XC states however, so maybe I shouldn’t doubt him to pull out something huge. 

Smart hasn’t had a big breakout race and he did it at states in the fall and I see him taking 5^th with confidence. He’s probably the most locked in person that I have in this field. Eli Mercado has run some strong 400’s this season and just had a big race to get from 2 flat to 1:57.46 and I think he continues rolling on the banked track. There is a chance he blows up, but I believe he’s ready to go.

--ForrestCRN