For Millrose I did write-ups for all the events that really stood out to me/that I am particularly interested in. I separated them in sections and the High Schoolers are first, so if you don't care about the Collegiate or Professional races you can skim that stuff over.
High School
John Lewis
will be racing with Cheltenham’s 4x2 as they look to put out a blazing time,
but North Penn is also in the race, as is Del Val. I think we will see sub 1:30
from all 3 squads along with a 1:28.7 from Cheltenham.
Tony Russell
will be the only PA runner represented in the Mile invitational, and I’m
frankly pretty surprised Sam Ritz did not get in/is not attending. I think
Russell is going to complete the triple. He’s been racing extremely strong and
isn’t messing around this season. This is no slouching field however with guys
like NY regional XC champion Mike Brannigan and Sean Kelly of Chaminade who has
run some fantastic times already this season. The Millrose field is always deep
so anyone could surprise, but Russell seems almost too good right now.
Penncrest’s
entered 4x8 has Emanuel and Kamat which were expected, but James Teal and Colin
Tyson? Teal has almost no results to his name, but is a junior who might be
having a breakout year on the relay scene that we’ve totally missed, and
Tyson’s 800m PR came earlier this season in December and he ran 2:10… he’s got
a 25.04 200m PR to his name which means he’s got speed and if he’s figured out
the distance and the Kazanjian’s are freed up for the 3k at states I’d be
pretty excited. Watching this pan out will tell us a lot about the Penncrest squad.
Also in the
4x8 is a hot running State College squad who I believe will go ~ 7:50:
Golembeski (1:59.5) Post (2:00.5), Adams (1:56.0), and Cather (1:54.0). I
honestly think that is fairly reasonable, if not a bit on the cautious side.
Adams might be in better shape than I think and Post is a 6’3 400 guy moving up
in distance which thrills me and he could be a total stud and split 1:57. But
we shall see J
Henderson is
trying out the 4x8 and I’m sure they’ll break 8, although I’m surprised to see
Barchet on the relay. Moy is most likely in 1:55 shape if he is splitting 3:06
for 1200m (from a post) and Thompson should be in mid 1:58 shape by now.
Stratman can go ~2 flat and I see Barchet running 2:02.
The College
4x8 will have quite a few PA guys including an almost exclusive PA team from
Duke with Kunzweiler, Moran, and McClafferty. Next season they’ll have Francis
as well which makes me pretty excited. Magaha is on U Penn’s team and hopefully
we’ll see a bounce back race for him and Palmisano running for ‘Nova.
Professional
Big gun Abington
graduate Jarret Eaton in the 60m Hurdle Elite section as he was recently signed
by World Express. He’s an absolute animal.
One battle
I’m super excited for is the Womens Elite Mile featuring high school junior
stud Alexa Efraimson who will be racing Mary Cain for the first time! Cain is
clearly a stronger mid-distance runner, but Efraimson just recently broke
Cain’s Junior 3k American record… Also featured as studs like Uceny, Moser,
McGee, Grunewald (just had a great 2 Mile), and Lipari.
The 1000m
American Record might fall as well as an absolutely amazing group of
mid-distance men have assembled. Matt Scherer, the world’s best pacer, will be
helping lead the charge for Mike Rutt (recently ran 1:46 low on back to back
days), Erik Sowinski (600m American Record Holder, recently split 1:46.2 to
anchor the World Record breaking 4x8 team), Nike Symmonds (Silver Medalists in
the 800m at the past world championships and is the 3rd fastest
American All-Time at the 800m distance), along with past 800m NCAA champion
Robby Andrews, and Tyler Mulder a man who ran 1:46 on 4 separate occasions last
summer. My goodness am I hyped up for this race. It’s going to be incredible.
In the Men’s
Elite Mile we have some of my favorite runners and characters on the national
scene along with PA alumni Craig Miller. One of my top 5 favorite professional
runners looks to have the first big race of his post-collegiate career and
that’s Miles Batty who graduated last year from BYU. Lawi Lalang just dropped a
massive 3k effort of 7:44 and is in amazing shape. I think he could break Chris
O’Hare’s college record that was set at this meet last season, and by the way,
O’Hare is in the field as well. Not to mention Nick Willis who grabbed a big
win at New Balance this past weekend in a 3:57 effort (after the race went out in 2:04.5 through 800m), the Australian is always
ready to roll and is one of my favorites. We’ve also got Will Leer who is
fantastic at complaining, but is almost as good at coming up big in
non-championship races so he could shock with a big race. On the other side of
the spectrum from Leer is Leo Manzano who is still unsigned! He’ll be looking
to prove he’s worth it as the Olympic silver medalist looks for a big victory
which is must needed. Lalang isn’t the only Collegiate however as Kirubel
Erassa of OSU looks for redemption after XC nationals along with a big PR and
not to mention Austin Mudd the stud from Wisconsin who always races superbly.
--ForrestCRN
What's with Russell saying it's going to be a tactical race at Millrose. He's finally figured out how to win the mile so he should forget the tactical stuff and run his race. Tactical didn't work for him at states last year and it won't work this week. If he had 50 400 speed, well maybe, but he doesn't. He needs to push the pace laps 3-6, nobody there can go with him and those who try will peter out. Let the other guys play pro runner and go tactical, he'll dust them if he runs his race keeping it moving. 4:14 will be enough to win it but if he gets caught up in a tactical race, he'll go out too slow and come in 4th in 4:16.
ReplyDeleteState College has a great shot at getting low 7:50, maybe even breaking it. I’m not sure what to make out of WCH’s 4x800, I would have thought Collins would be on that team. I’m not really sure what to make out of their season for that matter. They’ve hit some good times but don’t seem to be going for anything individually which doesn’t seem to be taking advantage of their depth, but maybe some guys are less than 100%.
Forrest doing interviews at the Carnival should be interesting. Chris Cummings doubling in the mile/3000 may be a preview for states. It’d be nice to see Abert crank out a good mile going against Ritz and Deluca. -JEB
Good luck to Cummings but I think we know how this story ends. I'm a little surprised to see Barchet on that 4x8 too. Maybe his name just got thrown in & Collins or someone else will run it. Heck, I'm actually surprised to see Henderson to be running a 4x8 at Millrose. Seems like their guys are healthy but more about the relays, except for Russell of course. Is RJJL not able to see past the blinding light of his bright star to put other guys in individual races?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that Cummings is doubling mile and DMR. After running 10:56 at Glen Mills, I expect them to go for SQS at Carnival.
DeleteIs Rupp still running Millrose?
ReplyDeleteHow did Henderson get invited for the 4x800? They ran 8:14, which is decent, but other teams have run much better. Secondly, Barchet was a 2 flat runner last indoor wasn't he? I'm not surprised he's in the 4x800, but definitely thought Collins would be on it over him. Moy, Thompson, and Stratman should all be sub 2 with Barchet pushing 2 flat.
ReplyDeleteIf Russell let's Millrose become a tactical race then he will lose. Do what he did to run that 4:11 and the race is his. Literally run the kick out of those runners, I highly doubt they'll let Russell get a big gap on them, they know who he is and how he's been running and they'll try and stay pretty close to him. I'd even go as far as to say Russell should make it a positive split race, maybe going 2:03-2:11? Somewhere around there. It's really his race to lose though.
Is Sam Ellison on that 'Nova team? I'd find it hard to believe they have four better than him.
Can you link me the list of entrances and who's running what?
Hopefully the women's elite mile will be a pushed race rather than a kickers race. I'd love to see if Efraimson could dip under 4:30. If she does then she might as well do what Cain did and go professional. It would be a massive PR for her, but she's been having an incredible year and already dropped 31 seconds from her 3k PR so why not. Not a chance she beats Cain though.
-RTJ
Why does everyone think russell will go so slow at millrose if he'll have to run 4:11 again at least to win and he can go so much faster than that. He's not the only strong guy in the field. He'll have to be the strongest and come back in 2:06 in the second 800 after a good first 800
ReplyDeleteIt was based on his post 4:11 interview when he said he expected Millrose to be tactical and slower. I'm hoping he goes sub 4:10 so as to end any controversy about flat track/banked tracked records that RJJL is addressing over on PennTrack.
DeleteRjjl isn't Henderson's coach... if I was I'm sure he'd say it.
DeleteIt's not Kevin Kellys style. He wouldn't hide behind an alias. He's posted on Penntrack & here before, always identifying himself. RJJL is knowledgeable though and I look forward to his posts on here.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/rstony18/status/433750238999109632
DeleteSitting watching the snow fall, looking for something to do. Figure a discussion on Carnival will help pass the time.
ReplyDeleteWhen looking at the distance and distance relay events, the biggest question is in which event will each team put their 'A' team. First of all, Henderson and State College will have their best running at Millrose. Further, I assume if a team has already run SQS in one relay, they will run the other. Another interesting choice will be CB West, who have run near SQS times in both the DMR and 4x800. Which one will they go for at Carnival?
4x800- Some great teams looking to approach the 8:00 mark. The best of whom are Abington, Avon Grove, Malvern Prep. I assume if Radnor and GFS can run a 10:39 DMRs, they can do a really good 4x800. Cedar Crest could also break SQS.
DMR - Race leaders will be Carlisle, Pennsbury Strath Haven, Upper Merion, WC East, and maybe CB West. If Abert isn't too tired after the mile, look for Easton too. Look for Conestoga and Wyomissing to come close to SQS.
800 - Many of the fastest 800 runners this year will not run in this race. The winners look like Sauer, Graham Allen, and Sjoreen. Also look for Kopach and Edenfield (both who broke 2:00 last spring). There are 17 runners who have run 2:04 or below, so a lot of runner should be coming in right around SQS.
Mile - Even without Russel or Hoey, this could be a great race. Leader should be Sam Ritz (4:23 this year), with Liam O'Connell, Cooper, Knapp, Lauer, and Viella close behind. Question is in what shape Colin Abert is. He could win it, or come in at 4:40. I count 20 runners with a chance at SQS.
3000 - Without many of the top 3K runners signed up, this race should be between Patrick Reilly and Cole Nissley. Griffin Molino may be up there, but I am not sure what kind of shape he is in. Paul Power could also be there, but may be running the mile. (I expect to see Cummings in the DMR too)
So Radnor and GFS are definitely doing the 4x800? Because they're signed up for both 4x800 and DMR. As for the DMR it should really only be between Carlisle, Pennsbury, and Strath Haven. I would be surprised to see any of the others challenge them. WCE has the ability but not without a fresher Cummings. In the 800 I guess you missed Brehm's name on there. He's not running the mile so he'll be completely fresh so I don't see how he doesn't win. Mile should be led by Ritz. It'll be interesting to see how fast Deluca can go, I don't think he's ever been in a fast mile yet so that should be interesting to watch. I also want to see Abert drop something nasty. He's been way to quiet this year. The 3k is where anything could happen and I'd really to love to watch Nissley, Reilly, Molino, and Cummings all push for sub 9:00 finishes. They all have the ability to take the win too. Normally I'd go with Molino but since I have no idea what shape he is in I'm going to have to with Reilly followed by Nissley a few seconds behind. I have no doubt that this will be the best race of the day to watch.
DeleteQuit offending Willis. He is a Kiwi.
ReplyDeleteHas anybody else noticed the Conversation Hearts this year have no flavor?
ReplyDeleteWhat brand are you eating?
DeleteThe ones from CVS are decent. Not sure the name brand though, bro.
Dude, conversation hearts are like candy corn. They're both awful & have zero flavor. Just go straight for the easter candy. Jelly beans work.
DeletePCL champs preview? I don't think the performance list is up but its pretty predictable who will run what.
ReplyDelete