Abington Preview

Sorry this preview is a bit late, but hopefully you guys have time to check it out before the races on Saturday. I'm excited to see the results from these big early season invites, and we should see some good times on these generally fast courses.

Abington has traditionally been a good early season race. Last year saw Abington host Council Rock North (minus Ross Wilson), Penncrest, West Chester East, Great Valley, Conestoga and Downingtown West. There were some fast times with six guys under 16:00 and fourteen under 16:30. The field should largely look the same I believe, except CRN is being replaced by Malvern Prep. For those who are not familiar with this course, it’s just about all grass on athletic fields with only a quarter mile or so of wooded trail. The first mile and last about 1k are flat and fast, with a steep hill in the woods in the middle of the race and again heading into the last 1k. It makes for some fast early season times, but also a fun race for runners.

Let’s throw some of the names of top guns out there:

Andrew Marston, Conestoga

Killian Nelson, Conestoga

Jaxson Hoey, Malvern Prep

Billy McDevitt, Malvern Prep

Josh Hoey, Malvern Prep

Drew Alansky, Downingtown West

Ryan Barton, Downingtown West

Charlie Barton, Downingtown West

Eric Diestelow, West Chester East

Apparently Josh Smith of Avon Grove is injured and done for the season. Sorry to hear it, he definitely had a lot of potential this season.

Here’s a quick look at my top 5 individual predictions:

(Before I go further, looks like a good chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, so if the race is run in poor conditions, the time predictions go out the window obviously)

1.      Jaxson Hoey                      15:30

2.      Andrew Marston               15:36

3.      Eric Diestelow                   15:40

4.      Billy McDevitt                    15:42

5.      Charlie Barton                   15:56

For anyone who watched Jaxson Hoey race the Indoor States Mile and get dragged by Tony Russell and hang in there for a fourth place finish, watching that made me a full believer in him. The kid has enormous potential, the real question is just how fast does he push it the first time out this season. I say he runs gutsy anyway and earns a 15:30. The course record is 15:31 (held by yours truly from last year) and I think he will give it his best to beat that mark (unless his coach specifically tells him to hold back). Behind him I have Andrew Marston running a fast 15:36 after running very well at Oakbourne relays, staying in sight of Hoey but not right with him. Marston has a decent chance of winning this race, but he is the underdog so I believe he will go all out against Jaxson Hoey to get down to that fast time. In third I have Eric Diestelow edging out Billy McDevitt, both guys I think will be able to throw down some fast times. And then I have Charlie Barton rounding out the top five after looking pretty good at Oakbourne.

Behind them are a host of other sleeper picks who will be looking to move up. Just to put a few names out there in no particular order: Killian Nelson ran well at Oakbourne and could be around 16:20. I’m not sure what to expect out of Josh Hoey, but I think he will be in the mid-16’s. Drew Alansky of Downingtown West did not run at Oakbourne, but if he runs look for him in the low 16’s along with teammate Ryan Barton. Also from DTW, Ben Ryherd had a decent showing at Oakbourne so he could possibly make some noise in the mid to low-16’s. James Cooper from Conestoga is another name to watch for, with a 16:13 from last year, he could do some damage.

On the team side of things I think this is a hard meet to predict because it is so early and every program is at a different point in their training. I think Malvern Prep wins it, but Conestoga will push them and it could be a good battle between the two teams. The 3-5 guys will really matter big time since both teams have a few top runners. Behind them Downingtown West will be secure in third, overall they were not hugely impressive at Oakbourne, but bear in mind they may have been running it as a workout. They might surprise by upsetting one of the top two if the pack really gets on a roll. To round out the top 5 I’m going to say Penncrest takes fourth and Avon Grove in. Penncrest is in a reloading stage after losing the top three from last year, and while they have the parts to be successful this year, the question is how ready those guys are at the first invitational. I think they have a good showing in fourth and beat out Avon Grove who should be competitive but definitely lost something without Josh Smith.

Let’s hope the weather is good for this meet and it should be a great race and very telling early season indicator. I’m sure we will see our fair share of surprising performances for both individuals and teams.

-Cummings, WC East