This race is going to be all sorts of fun! I’m going to list the guys who are on my top 50 list who will be racing and then do some analysis.
Top 50 List: Colin Abert (#2), Dominic Hockenbury (#10),
Casey Comber (#11), Zach Seiger (#15), Brad Foust (#19), Kyle Shinn (#31),
Simon Smith (#38), and Jack DiCintio (#47)
Others to Watch for: Ryan Paradise, Rock Fortna, Kevin
Lapsansky, Drew Wilkinson, Dominic Stroh, Sean Weidner, Will Sponaugle, and
Kyle Ortiz
Well, looking at that list of individuals has got me really
excited! This race is going to be stacked and it’s a really good course to race
on early in the season. Last year we saw some great performances namely Dominic
DeLuca winning the Gold race in 15:43 over Groh, and Abert, along with a
fantastic 9th place finish from Towanda’s Simon Smith. We also saw
the start of a blossoming Casey Comber who beat out Kyle Shinn in the Blue
race. Who will we see break out this year as a junior?
Personally I think we’ll see Jack DiCintio have a huge race
right off the bat. He’s only 47th on my list, but I’m big on this
young Wyomissing runner and he’s got a great partner in Shinn; frankly I think
DiCintio might be the better of the two on the opening weekend.
In terms of the big dogs I think the race up front is going
to be fierce. Hockenbury had a great opening to his season with a sub 16
clocking and you know Abert will be gunning for the title after finishing 4th
last season. No question Abert is the better runner, but I wouldn’t be
surprised if Hockenbury bettered him at the beginning of the season. Abert
comes on strong late, so I give him a 50% chance of taking the crown with
Hockenbury having a 30% chance. After the two of them we get to see Casey
Comber and Zach Seiger open up their seasons. It’s going to see where Comber is
at after a massive break out sophomore season to see if he has continued to
improve at a big pace, or if he’s slightly curtailed. No question he will be a
force to be reckoned with this season however. I think he and Seiger will
battle it out right behind these two studs.
Last year Seiger placed 12th place before he
slowly began his journey into the stud category. I think this season he’ll be
top 5 no questions asked and should be close to the 16 minute barrier with
Comber. For reference point, last season Abert ran 15:59.I like Simon Smith to
have another big race in him to open up his season and I think he’ll be right
around where Brad Foust is, maybe 5 to 10 seconds behind. Foust had a solid
season opener placing 3rd at _______. I am surprised he lost to Alex
Milligan however, but not so much Kachman who is going to be one of the top
juniors this season.
Also some guys to watch out for in the junior class, who
should be in a pack together, are Ryan Paradise, Rock Fortna, and Kevin
Lapsansky. Fortna and Paradise have already started off their seasons strong,
and I have no doubt Abert’s teammate Lapsansky will be a stud this year and
will be joining them in the 10-15 range of this race.
In the team race we’ve got Altoona, Cumberland Valley, and
Twin Valley fighting for the team title. Altoona looked strong last weekend
against State College and I love the 1-2 punch of Foust and Stroh. Look for
Stroh to be up with the junior group that I mentioned above. Cumberland Valley
should have a studly pack starting around 15th-20th place
and ending around 35th. If they can get a few guys to make that jump
to the next level they will be dangerous this season. Twin Valley is always is
in the hunt, but never seems to make it to the next level. Will they be able to
make that transition this year under the leadership of Dominic Digiacomo? Not
sure what we’ll see out of Red Land, but I’m excited to see how Drew Wilkinson
does this season behind Seiger. He had a pretty solid season last year and
improved on the track.
The last point I want to address are the non-confirmed
teams. Last year we saw Freedom show up and place 5th overall. I’d
like to see them start their season once again with PTXC. Another non-confirmed
team is Manhiem Township, which is home to 10th place finisher and
Top 50 List’s #45, Brian Delany. He beat Seiger last year and this is where we
first glimpsed what would be an up-and-down season for the young sophomore. I’d
love to see him come out of the gates with a big finish this season as well, so
look out for that.
Final prediction: We will see a solid breakout race from
David Ortiz of Archbishop Wood. We haven’t seen a lot from this team in recent
years, but they have good coaches and their runners stay consistent all season
long. I think he’ll place top 5 in the Blue race, and I wouldn’t be surprised
if he got the crown (unless of course Comber and the Wyomissing Duo are in the
Blue Race again).
That’s all for now Folks!
-- ForrestCRN
Some surprising dual meet results. In the PCL O'hara didn't look very impressive. In Chesmonts the balance of power has definitely shifted, Dwest winning big over Avon Grove and shockers with Coatesville and Shanahan over WCE and Rustin over GV.
ReplyDeleteWCE and GV are rebuilding.They'll improve significantly throughout the year but both programs are probably a year or two away from rejoining the upper level of Chesmont teams.
DeleteIf I remember correctly, someone said keep an eye on Rustin and Coatesville because those programs are on the rise. Who was that? Oh yeah....it was me.
NDR
What happened to Josh Smith from AG? Is he injured?
DeleteYeah, what's up with O'Hara, Penntrack has them ranked #2 and they only have two guys break 18 at Belmont? That's not a good sign for a team that usually looks good in the early going.
DeleteRustin beat GV 21-34. Rustin is stepping up in the chesmont league.
DeleteRustin beating great valley isn't shocking at all.
DeleteIn fact, nothing here is a surprise or even remotely interesting.
DeleteRustin needs a little reality check. Nice win but let’s be serious, Great Valley lost 7 of 7 varsity, they’re in a rebuild year so this outcome was expected. Voight got some nice hype from Henderson training partners who post 24/7 but he’s probably not yet top 5 on Dwest, let alone Chesmonts as some predicted. In Chesmont national they’d be very mediocre though they do have a little potential.
DeleteCoatesville is a different story, that team is on the rise and will probably beat WCH but come up short against Dwest.
Now GV is being looked at as a team in a "rebuilding stage" but led by Joe ellis, they also have a pack of 3 or 4 that follows. If Gv improves its timespread, they could see 2nd for the American league at Chesmonts.
DeleteDon't discount the Easton team in this race. They are coming off an upset of Freedom on Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteI would add Ethan Gatchell to the runners to watch for. I think he has the potential for a breakout race. Didn't have a great xc season last year, and then was hurt during track this year, but don't forget, the guy ran 4:26 and split something like 1:57 as a sophomore. If he's healthy and back on track, he just might surprise a few of you.
ReplyDelete-GBC
I told you the Easton team is the real deal...one of best 1-2 runners in the state. However I still think Freedom wins District 11 in a tight race coming down to the 5th man.
ReplyDeletegood call
Delete