Foundation Preview

Hi guys,

I hope everyone's excited for another weekend of meets, I can't wait to see some results. I wrote up a preview for Foundation, where we'll get to see some good squads compete against each other along with 15 of Forrest's top 50. One of the great things about Foundation is that it's one of the few non-State meets that feature both East and West. I think it's always fun to see what everyone's predicting the runners to come in at, so let's hear it! Put in the comments your own predictions whether it's for the team race, individuals, or even a different meet entirely! I wish everybody luck, and now down to some previewing:

Foundation Preview:

Top Teams Attending:

Bensalem

Cardinal O’Hara

Central Bucks East

Mount Lebanon

North Allegheny

State College

I think the team race is wide open right now and there’s plenty of room for surprise. North Allegheny looks the best right now with 5 at 17:00 season bests or under and 7 at or under 17:07, but you can make a fair argument they’ve run faster courses. They were also runner up at States last year, but only three of those guys (McGoey, Wharrey and Seel) ran in that race. 

Right behind them last year in third and fourth were Cardinal O’Hara and State College. While they’ve only run seriously at Briarwood so far, O’hara is looking a little thin this year, with a 1:47 1-5 split and their fourth and fifth guys who’s PRs are 17:35 and 17:38 from this past weekend. 

State College looks a bit more solid right now, with 8 guys at or under 17:25 on the season. The biggest question for State College is their lack of a total stud like James of McGoey out front right now, but that won’t hurt them as much in a meet like Foundation compared to the State meet. Mount Lebanon has also looked solid time-wise, but they were beaten quite handily at RW&B by North Allegheny, mostly because North Allegheny put 3 ahead of Mount Lebanon’s #1.

CB East has some room to surprise, with Brophy out front and a pack of guys who are in the low 17’s so far for this season. If that team brings their A game they might be able to do some damage.

And my real sleeper team here is Bensalem. They won their race at Bulldog and have a decent five who should be able to compete well this year.

I’m going to take a stab at the order of the top six here: North Allegheny, State College, Mount Lebanon, Cardinal O’Hara, Central Bucks East, Bensalem.

Top 50 Runners Attending:

Jake Brophy #4

Kevin James #5

Matt McGoey #7

Hunter Wharrey #11

Dominic Hockenbury #12

*Paul Power #21

Nathan Morgan #27

Aaron Benka #34

Alex Milligan #38

Sean Weidner #39

Eric Diestelow #40

*Jonathan Perlman #41

Scott Seel #47

Jeff Kirshenbaum #48

Ryan James #49

*First Big Meet of the Season

It looks like 15 of Forrest’s top 50 will race Saturday up at Hershey, and this will be the first (and maybe only time before States) this season that we get to see East guys face off against the West. Before I dive into this, let me say, there are multiple races (Blue and Gold, Gold is traditionally faster) and I don’t know who is in which race, but I’m going to write this as if everyone is in the same race.

James Brophy (#4) is the highest ranked runner headed into this race and is coming off a great season opener at Briarwood, but I’ve actually got Kevin James (#5) taking the win here. He was 4^th on this course at States last year. I think he runs the course well and with the added motivation to bounce back and beat Brophy he’ll pull out the win. Behind James I’m predicting Matt McGoey (#7). I’ve had the honor of running against McGoey at this very meet last year and I remember being impressed with how he was doing as we duked it out mid-race. He’s looked strong to start the year and he’s another guy who I think runs well on this course. I’m expecting to be impressed by him again this year (just four states away instead of four yards away this time). Then I have Jake Brophy coming in third. This isn’t a critique of Brophy, but I’m just expecting James and McGoey to run very well here.

Then I think Hunter Wharrey (#11) will come in fourth in a race where I think he’ll just try to hang on with McGoey. Wharrey’s also run well so far this season and here he’ll get a chance to prove it. But don’t count out Dominic Hockenbury (#12). He hasn’t been pushed yet and could be quite dangerous in a race like this.

Paul Power (#21) looks to open his season and I’m very interested to see where he’ll be at. If I had to guess I think he’ll be about ten seconds back from fifth, but he’s a dark horse, keep an eye out for a potential high finish from him. Nathan Morgan (#27) heads to Hershey looking for a solid performance. He’ll definitely want a race that stands out more than the 16:43 he has so far, look for him to try to make a statement.

Now there’s a big group of guys with something to prove. Aaron Benka (#34) ran well at RW&B but he’ll be looking to show he’s got plenty more and to make a statement to the AA division. Alex Milligan (#38) is looking to show he can be a competitive number one for State College this season and I think he’ll lead this pack. Sean Weidner (#39) is looking to continue a good start to his fall and prove he can be competitive at cross as well as on the track. Eric Diestelow (#40) will head to the State course looking for a bounce back race after a disappointing finish at Bulldog. And Jonathan Perlman (#41) is looking start his season out strong and break through to the next level this year. All of these guys have good credentials and will be fighting it out to see how they do on the Hershey course and against each other. After all, the next time they run it in November, these same guys will be duking it out for medals.

And don’t forget about Scott Seel (#47), Jeff Kirshenbaum (#48) or Ryan James (#49). Seel and Kirshenbaum have been decent but not great this season, but they both will be trying to change that with a good placing at this meet. Ryan James has been coming along well, but his primary focus I think will be to help Cardinal O’Hara secure a good spot by getting as low a stick as he can.

-Cummings