Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Top 20 Eastern PA Rankings

Hello everybody,

I hope everyone's season is gearing up well. So I will be doing rankings for Eastern PA this season, including Districts 1,2,11,12 and the Independent league schools. So here's the first week:



1.      Colin Abert, SR, Easton Area, 11AAA
Returning State Runner-Up in XC solos a 15:21 to open the season. That’s downright dirty. I don’t really see the need for much analysis here. But if you don’t know he was also 13th at FootLocker Regionals last year and looks like he’s headed to the final this year. 9:20 in the 3200 and 4:16 in the 1600 where he took 5th at States this spring. But he’s better at cross country and I think there are only a handful of guys who stand a chance against him this fall.
2.      Kevin James, SR, Cardinal O’Hara, 12AAA
Hasn’t raced hard yet this fall, but I can’t wait to see what he brings to his senior year, he’s been a big name pretty much since he got to Cardinal O’Hara. While he’s better on the track than Abert (9:03 to take 4th in the State 3200 this past spring and a 4:14 1600), he did take 3rd to Abert’s 2nd at Hershey last year, and that combined with the fact he hasn’t shown what he can do this season yet has him behind Abert. But I remember racing James last year at Bulldog and even though I went all out to hang with him, he still ran the wheels off of me. That experience taught me don’t for a single second doubt this guy’s ability.
3.      Jaxson Hoey, JR, Malvern Prep, IND
While I was hoping he might run faster and probably could have in cooler conditions, soloing a 15:52 at Abington is a good way to open up the season for him. Besides, since he doesn’t get to run at any District races or Hershey, he and the entire Malvern team is training to make it to Nationals in late November. That’s a long way away and Hoey has the potential to drop a lot of time between here and there.
4.      Sam Webb, SR, Pennsbury, 1AAA
He hasn’t raced any invitationals yet this fall so this ranking is based mostly on what he did in the spring (9:08 to take 6th in the 3200). But his 15:32 PR from last fall is excellent even though he did not have a very good day at States (he placed 19th last year, compared to 14th as a sophomore). I think Webb will show up big this fall after a big spring.
5.      Dominic Hockenbury, JR, Lake Lehman, 2AA
He was State Runner-Up in XC and Champion in the 3200 for AA last year, so he’s gotta be the favorite for the AA title this year. He also has 15:51 and 15:58 so far this season, which I think are impressive since they were both races where nobody finished near him. He’s setting himself up very nicely so far and it’s easy to see this becoming a great season for Hockenbury.
6.      Jake Brophy, JR, CB East, 1AAA
He’s soloed two races so far for 16:05 and 15:59. I’ll be interested to see how far he can drop those times with some good competition, remember his PR is 15:24. He took 8th at States last year and I’m sure is aiming for a top 5 finish this year, but that’s certainly going to be easier said than done.
7.      Andrew Marston, SR, Conestoga, 1AAA
Both his Oakbourne times and now his 8:51 for 3k on grass at Germantown Friends have looked good so far. After seeing his opening times, I think he’s on track for big things this season after setting a high standard for himself last year with a 9th place finish at States. However, while it’s certainly a valid strategy to avoid 5ks a bit early in the season, it does mean that I’m holding out for a good 5k from him before I move him up any higher.
8.      Casey Comber, SR, Hatboro Horsham, 1AAA
He’s coming off of a very impressive year all around, including a 14:56 for a track 5k and a 15:34 at Lehigh. For some reason he was in the blue race at PTXC, so he missed out on running against Abert and Hockenbury and instead had an uninspiring 16:29. I’m assuming he simply cruised the race for the win though, so by no means panic and bench Comber for your fantasy lineup. (wait, wrong sport, sorry…)
9.      Sam Ritz, SR, Germantown Academy, IND
Also no races this season, but he did 4:17 as recently as June. I’d say Ritz is a better track runner, but he has had some bright spots on the fields and hills, namely beating Jaxson Hoey at the Inter-AC League race last year. Since he was still running track in early June he may have delayed XC training and therefore start the season a little slow, but I’m thinking he will still put together some nice results for himself by the end.
10.   Paul Power, SR, Spring Ford, 1AAA
Power is another guy who has not raced yet, but 15:36 and 4:24 last year are good times and he’s a returning XC medalist. He’s been a very good runner in his career so far and I think he’s eyeing the jump up to great this season.
11.   Billy McDevitt, SR, Malvern Prep, IND
No better way to start a season than with a PR. McDevitt did just that at Abington, running a 16:09 and taking 2nd behind teammate Jaxson Hoey. While a few people had been talking McDevitt up for this season, he previously had been much more successful on the track (he got down to 4:21 for the 1600 and had an 8:54 3k). But with a low 16 clocking already he’s shown he is ready to translate track success to cross country success and he could be a big name to watch this season.
12.   Nick Dahl, SO, Germantown Friends, IND
As I write this PennTrack has a “Future Stars Spotlight” posted on Nick Dahl, and I think that describes him quite well. 17:00 as a freshman for a 5k is not a bad time, but 4:22 and 9:19 are eyepopping.  Then he opens his season with a 9:09 3k to beat Alex Knapp and come in only six seconds behind Sam Ritz. It’s still early, but this kid could really bust out in cross country and I’m expecting him to post a few more impressive times and beat out several more established veterans over the coming weeks.
13.   Kyle Gonoude, SR, Salisbury, 11AA
Here’s another guy who I think is more of a track miler (where he has a 4:23), but he wasn’t bad in XC last year either, winning District 11 AA and taking 7th at States. Hasn’t raced yet this fall. He should be in the mix for top 5 AA at States.
14.   Jonathan Perlman, SR, Lower Merion, 1AAA
While Perlman is on the long list of guys who have not raced yet and this makes him hard to place on the list, he has some solid times from last year including a 15:53 at Lehigh, 9:33 for the 3200 and a 4:22 mile. He broke out last year and I’d expect some more improvement this year.
15.   Alex Knapp, SR, WC Henderson, 1AAA
So he ran a 16:47 at Oakbourne, but I shrugged it off and said it was August 13th. He then looked just okay for himself at Oakbourne Relays, and I told myself, he must’ve just been doing a workout. Then he takes 4th while running a 9:19 for 3k this past weekend. None of these are bad times per se, and all could easily have good excuses, but he’s run three races at this point and none have been beyond okay for what I would think he would be at. I don’t want to be negative about Knapp because he is an excellent runner and did 15:38 last year, but to me it looks like he has a ways to go right now.
16.   Nathan Morgan, SR, Lakeland, 2A
He took 5th at A States last year and has a 4:21 mile to his name, so he has some potential, but really hasn’t made a name for himself to this point. He also opened the season with a 2nd place 16:43 (in the same race Hockenbury went 15:51) which isn’t a great mark even though he finished with nobody near him. Be aware of his name though, he could develop well this season and should be in the mix for the A title at States.
17.   Connor Holm, SR, Radnor, 1AAA
Connor Holm made low-4:20’s for the 1600 his routine this past spring and took 8th in the mile at States. He hasn’t seen as much success in XC though, with a 16:04 at Districts from last year. The question surrounding him is not whether he has the speed, he certainly does, but can he translate that great one mile speed to a 5k with hills.
18.   Jack Tidball, SR, Tunkhannock Area, 2AA
Jack Tidball progressed well last season, taking 3rd in his District race and getting down to a 9:26 3200. He hasn’t broken out quite yet though, and will be looking to challenge for the top few AA spots in the state. He also has not raced yet this season, but keep an eye out for him as a AA sleeper pick.
19.   Brian Arita, SR, CR North, 1AAA
Arita’s been solid all around, but hasn’t made his mark yet in any one area. Watch out for him this season though, as he leads the CR North squad, which is historically good. He had a 16:41 on the season before winning Mill Street in 16:15. That’s a decent mark to start his season from and I think he’ll be a factor in several races this fall and has an opportunity to compete for and earn a medal at Hershey.
20.   Henry Sappey, JR, Downingtown West, 1AAA
This last spot was hard to pick since there are several guys with similar or faster times below Henry Sappey, but Sappey’s 16:20 was the fastest of this group of guys from this past weekend, and since he came on as a surprise at Abington I wanted to be sure to mention him. At Abington he took 3rd and beat out Eric Diestelow and Josh Hoey by two seconds. That’s a good way for him to open the season and if he continues to lead the DWest pack you’ll likely here his name plenty more at least in a team context if not in the individual category as well.

Near Misses and Other Guys to Watch (in no particular order):
Alek Sauer, SR, Pennsbury, 1AAA
Ben Szuhaj, SR, Penn Charter, IND
Ryan Tung, SR, North Penn, 1AAA
Eric Diestelow, SR, WC East, 1AAA
16:22 at Abington
Killian Nelson, SR, Conestoga, 1AAA
9:23 for 3k at Germantown Friends XC Invitational
PJ Murray, JR, Conestoga, 1AAA
9:28 for 3k at Germantown Friends XC Invitational
Grayson Hepp, JR, Germantown Friends, IND
9:29 for 3k at Germantown Friends XC Invitational
Josh Hoey, FR, Malvern Prep, IND
16:22 at Abington
Alex Ramirez, SR, Bensalem, 1AAA
16:23 at Mill Street
Sean Griswold, SR, CR North, 1AAA
16:49 at Mill Street
Joseph Maguire, JR, CR South, 1AAA
16:27 at Mill Street
Andrew Hanna, JR, CR South, 1AAA
16:28 at Mill Street

Josh Smith, SR, Avon Grove, 1AAA
It was looking like Josh Smith was going to have a very nice season, I picked him as 3rd in the Ches-Mont and 9th in District 1 after a 15:45 PR last year. But rumors about a stress fracture seem to be verified since he ran 17:22 at Abington this past weekend. Sadly a stress fracture will essentially rob him of the season, because he’ll come back too late to get back into it for States.

EDIT: I have it now through the grape vine that Josh Smith does not have a stress fracture, but simply shin splints. Let's hope he can recover quickly and get back to some fast times.

-Cummings

6 comments:

  1. Marston should definitely be in the top 5 if not higher. He crushed the shorter races and everyone knows that he's a strength runner. Also, the times at Abington were wrong. They reported everyone's times at about 5-7 seconds slower than they actually ran(new timing company). The course was actually lengthened to 5k this year. The finish was moved back quite a bit.

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    1. Very nice to hear reports that both Sharp and Abington fixed their courses this year and made them legitimate 5K's, credibility in the sport is important.

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    2. Add Bulldog to that list too.

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  2. Chris, Tough to argue against your top 9 picks. It the same as my prediction. I'm not familiar with runners 10 and below so I will have to rely on your analysis. A couple of my takes:
    Albert: 15:21 in that course this early is extraordinary and he did this without being pushed in the end. At this time, the guy to beat.
    James: experience will play a big part of him competing for the title. If he had teammates the caliber of Savage, Pitone, Smart in training that would have help him.
    Hoey: Not afraid to be front runner. May benefit from having a better strategy before the race but he clearly has enormous talent. Having McDevitt as training partner will help.
    Webb: bulldog. What he did outdoors state (double 4x8 and 3200) just tell me how competitive he is. Would want him on my team anytime
    Hockenbury: Followed up great outdoors with great start. Top returner in AA so he will be more motivated.
    Brophy: 15:24 PR and he worked on speed outdoors (member of 4x8). that should only make him better.
    Marston: 8:51K in grass and hills. wow. just realized that is a great time early in season. I may move him up to top 5.
    Comber: unchallenged so far, but i have no doubt he will be in the mix. HH had Hibb and Quinn before him so I think he will follow with their success.
    Ritz: 2nd behind Marston with 9:03 3K so season off to a great start.

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  3. No briarwood preview?

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  4. Hoey-15:30 for the win(CR?) at Briarwood. He ran away from Brophy(2nd) and James at the top of flagpole. Marston-9:27 at Cherokee-got outkicked by a Jersey kid. They both might be moving up. It's a crime that Briarwood results aren't posted anywhere yet.

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