Red, White and Blue Preview

Hi everybody!  Red, White and Blue, one of the fastest meets of the year, is just around the corner and it is once again shaping up to be an awesome race.  I’m going to have a top 20 individuals and top 5 teams at the bottom of the post.  This is only with the teams that MileSplit has as confirmed for the meet, I am assuming that Winchester Thurston will be there, meaning that Delaney and Loevner would be in my top 20, but in case they are not there, I am leaving them out for now.  Individually, the race is pretty open.  Matt McGoey is the top returner after running 15:45 last year behind Martin, Kennedy and Martin.  McGoey, however, will be running alongside the likes of Jeff Van Kooten, Hunter Wharrey, Scott Seel, and Aaron Benka to name a few, and they are all looking to take the gold as well.  Noah Smith of Ringgold put the hammer down this past weekend at Lock Haven, running 16:17 to set a 32 second PR and beat out several strong runners including Nick Sweet (4:24, 16:14).  Definitely watch for him to mix it up with the top pack this weekend.

Teamwise, North Allegheny are the clear favorites to win this meet again, but after their strong top 3 in McGoey, Wharrey and Seel, they really drop off.  Peter Savchik would be their 4th returner but he hasn’t run a race with NA since Tri-States in 2013, not sure if he just doesn’t do track, but its definitely strange to see a 16:25 guy skip out like that.  If Savchik is gone, their next best returner is Ben Goehring, who has a cross country PR of 17:17.  I think they can ride on the backs of their top 3, but the drop off certainly worries me for NA at this race.  Mount Lebanon should take second, they swept the Cal U meet last weekend without one of their top guns in Ian Baun and with freshman Bryce Brandenstein taking their #4 spot.  If Ian returns for this race, Lebo could be scary.  The times from that course are so slow every year and it is not unusual to run 1:30-2:00 faster at Red, White and Blue than you do at Cal.  I’m obviously going to be rooting for my former school and after their impressive display of pack running, with 23 seconds for 1-5 and 42 seconds for 1-7, I don’t think that it is extremely out of the question for Mt. Lebanon to give NA a scare at this meet.  Bethel Park and Norwin both had decent showings at the Gateway Invitational and could sneak into the top 5, as well as Baldwin, who has a strong pack no matter what.  Grove City is one of the top ranked AA teams in the state and should be able to muster up a top 5 finish on the backs of Benka and Budnik.  A real deep sleeper to get into the top 5 could be Saegertown.  They were the A champs last year and return 5 of their top 7.

If you’ve never run the Schenley course before, I’ll just give you some background.  Its fast.  Period.  The first mile is a slight downgrade before the second mile brings you back up to the Schenley Oval where you run the final ~1200 meters to the finish.  The course really benefits more speed-oriented runners because if you can get out hard, you can just ride the wave of runners behind you who will push you through the first mile and then throughout the race.  I imagine the top group at the mile will consist of McGoey, Van Kooten, Wharrey, Benka, Smith, etc. and they’ll probably hit the mile around 4:34.  When they come out of the woods after the 2 mile, which they’ll most likely go through in around 9:50, my prediction is McGoey and Van Kooten battling out front to the finish, with Wharrey starting to fall off just after.  After that top 3, there will probably be a pretty decently sized gap back to a pack with Seel, Smith, Benka, etc.  Van Kooten has the mile credentials and as I said before this is a course for faster runners, so Van Kooten is my winner.

When they cross the finish line, my top 20 looks like this:

1. Jeff Van Kooten, Pittsburgh Central Catholic      15:24 (4:58)

2. Matt McGoey, North Allegheny              15:29 (4:59)

3. Hunter Wharrey, North Allegheny          15:37 (5:02)

4. Aaron Benka, Grove City                  15:54 (5:07)

5. Scott Seel, North Allegheny             15:56 (5:07)

6. Noah Smith, Ringgold                  15:57 (5:08)

7. Ethan Linderman, Canon-McMillan         16:01 (5:09)

8. Todd Gunzenhauser, Mount Lebanon          16:03 (5:10)

9. Ryan Budnik, Grove City                 16:08 (5:11)

10. Eric Kennedy, Kiski Area             16:14 (5:13)

11. Sean Hilverding, Waynesburg Central        16:19 (5:15)

12. Mike Kolor, Seneca Valley            16:20 (5:15)

13. Elias Graca, Fox Chapel Area            16:24 (5:17)

14. Zack White, West Allegheny            16:24 (5:17)

15. Nick Wolk, Peters Township            16:26 (5:18)

16. Jacob Heinauer, North Hills             16:29 (5:18)

17. Matt Stone, Mount Lebanon            16:31 (5:19)

18. Brendon Barclay, Saegertown            16:31 (5:19)

19. Ian Harris, Mount Lebanon            16:34 (5:20)

20. Dennis Doyle, Baldwin                16:38 (5:21)

Top 5 Teams:

1. North Allegheny      2, 3, 5, 27, 34           71

2. Mount Lebanon     8, 17, 19, 25, 33    102

3. Fox Chapel        13, 46, 53, 61, 74    247

4. Grove City         4, 9, 55, 100, 102     270

5. Baldwin        20, 26, 60, 81, 101     288

Thanks for reading!

-Evan