A Few More State Predictions

Sorry I’m a bit late to the prediction party, things have been kind of hectic since it’s the week of ACC championships. Anyway I feel like a lot of the individual predictions have been covered very well by Evan and Forrest, and I don’t have much to add to their great work other than a few minor moves based on my way of looking at the results we’ve seen so far. So I included my top 10 individuals just to put them out there, but I’ll be looking more at the top 5 teams.

Quick discussion about the polls. Thanks to everyone who has participated, it’s been very interesting. A majority of people seem to agree with our trio of writers, that Colin Abert is the clear favorite to win. Will we see a new course record though? I just cannot stop thinking about that 14:55 Abert put out at Paul Short. That’s four seconds faster than Russell, three weeks earlier in the season. And bear in mind that 15:45 was Russell’s junior year time, he did 14:59 his senior year at Districts and then cruised to a 15:49 at States. Since I think that Russell his senior year could have done at least 15:40 at Hershey if he went after it, and I think that Abert at this point is at least be as good as Russell if not better, I think the course record is Abert’s for the taking. If you haven’t voted, don’t take this as a mandate to go and hit yes on the course record poll, that’s just my thought process, and I appreciate seeing what other people think.

My quick top 10:

1.      Colin Abert

2.      Kevin James

3.      Jake Brophy

4.      Andrew Marston

5.      Paul Power

6.      Casey Comber

7.      Matt McGoey

8.      Aaron Gebhart

9.      Sam Webb

10.   Zach Seiger

Team Predictions:

1.      North Allegheny

They’ve had the 1-2 combo all season in McGoey and Wharrey, but 3-5 has really done a good job coming along and closing up the spread. I certainly don’t think they’re a lock to win it, but they look like the most complete of the teams competing for the title.

2.      LaSalle

Tight pack. That’s what has driven this team and what gave them the win in District 12. Cardinal O’Hara actually put three in front of their one, but a 21 second spread can be formidable, especially in a race like States.

3.      Cardinal O’Hara

They’ve looked pretty good this year and while they did get beat by LaSalle, I still think they’ve got a good five who will do well for them.

4.      WC Henderson

You might raise your eyebrows at this pick, but I’m believing in them. Honestly, I don’t know how they’re going to beat Conestoga, but I didn’t see any way they would take second at Districts, let alone by under 10 points, and they did just that. If you want some more analysis, a tight 2-4 who are running well will be dangerous and I don’t think they’re 5^th will be as bad as you might initially think. Plus they’re Henderson so they’ll be ready for this course and this race.

5.      Conestoga

I wouldn’t say I’m expecting a bad day from them. But I agree with Forrest’s gist, that there just so happen to be four teams I think will be better. We haven’t seen a meet where they’ve put it all together and had everyone run well, which could show potential or be a warning.

6.      Mount Lebanon

7.      Easton

8.      Hempfield

9.      Central Bucks West

10.   Cumberland Valley

11.   Council Rock North

12.   Downingtown West

13.   State College

14.   Carlisle

 Good luck to everyone who's racing on Saturday! I hope everyone does well, this is what you've been working hard towards, so put it all out there and PA Don't Play.

-Cummings

Forrest's Top 12 Teams AAA States

    1. North Allegany - 110

I just can’t seem them losing the race at this point in the season. Mcgoey and Wharrey both seem locks within the top 10/12 runners and Scott Seel is tied for the the best #3 in the state with Rob Morro (of O’Hara). NA and O’Hara seem almost the same through 1-3, but the big difference for me with come at the 4^th spot. I think Jacob Stupak will have a great race. At Foundation he was 57 seconds behind Seel, the next race Seel did not run, but he was 47 seconds behind Wharrey, then at Tri-States he was 19 seconds behind Seel, and finally at WPIAL’s he was just 13 seconds behind. He’s made some big improvements and he went out quite slow at Districts (5:32/11:02), but still finished 13^th. It’s not like Seel has gotten worse with a 6^th place WPIAL finish, Stupak has just gotten a lot better. And finally they’ve got a great #5 in Zach Deible, who beat Mt. Lebo’s 2 at Districts.

2    2. Cardinal O’Hara – 135

O’Hara has a very solid top 3 and if Drew Pastore were healthy I have no question that they’d challenge NA for the win. Basically I think both teams will be even in terms of points on runners 1, 2, 3, and 5, but Stupak over Pastore will be the biggest factor. The solid top 3 will help them edge out the pack of La Salle.

3. La Salle – 140

Boy did I miss out on La Salle when this season started. They’ve got a really incredible pack that hasn’t broken at all this year and they run some rough courses. Manhattan showed they weren’t a fluke and they were phenomenal with their District win. I think if they can get someone in the top 30 and the pack follows like usual they can get at minimum 125 points, but I think they just fall short with their top finisher around 33^rd place.

4. Cumberland Valley – 178

This is where I might go very wrong and I’m clearly terrible at picking 4^th place teams, so I’ve basically cursed CV, but I love going out on a limb with a team and I think it’ll be these guys. Quinn Wasko has been very impressive all season, especially his consistency. Last weekend Soliman ran with his teammates and tempo’d the race to finish right between his 3 and 5 teammate. Because of this and his relaxed race at Paul Short I think he comes up big for his team. Higgins in a solid 3 man and I like Seeber as well at the 4^th position. 

       5.Conestoga – 190

I’m not sure just yet how I feel about picking them for 5^th. They have really underwhelmed me, but Cooper was 41^st last year, Nelson looks great this season and Marston is a very solid top guy. Not to mention Pj Murray having a nice season for his first XC year. They were District champions and I think they’ve got a lot more in them.

     6.  Easton – 196

This team has a ton of potential for a top 4 team. If Abert and Lapsansky can combine for 10 points or less and the two Greg’s have good races they should be set. Sherman looked like a great #3 at Districts and Koch has withstood the pressure this season that has been put on him despite being a sophomore. This team has guts and great leadership of Abert. When you’re running behind the best man in the state you’ve got some inspiration to do well. Abert will be fired and up so will this squad.

     7.Council Rock North – 200

No way this team falls lower than 7^th place. I thought they raced terribly at Districts all around. Arita didn’t go when he should have and ran a reserved, fearful second mile and the team looked that way all around. Griswold usually comes up big and didn’t and Heintz looked poor. The sophomore Haas showed some strong resolve to help them make it to states, but I think this team will bounce back and really bring it this weekend. Top 5 should be the goal, but there are quite a few teams that could bounce around them. 

     8.  West Chester Henderson – 209

I thought I was being a bit generous with this pick to be honest. Knapp I think is a lock for top 15 and is racing well during championship season. Swart had a big comeback race at Districts and moved up well, while Smucker went out hard and held on. Barchet looked solid all the way through and I like this team overall. I’d be hard pressed to imagine Smucker getting under 17 minutes and Ben Berkman had a 30 second PR at Districts. At best he runs 18 flat, which gives him about 85-90 points. So for them to score under 200 points this team needs to average 27 points a man for their front 4. 

    9.   Mount Lebanon – 219

I don’t know how I feel about this pick just yet, but despite a poor District race I think this team has more to show. Todd Gunzenhauser should have a big race at States and I think he’ll bring Ian Baun with him (or Baun will bring Gunz) either way I think they finish within 2-3 places of each other and could be the 24/25^th place finishers in the race in my opinion. After that they’ve been shakey, but they know the hills of Hershey and have ran them well. I like Harris’ consistency and Brandenstein always races well with him and is a beast of a freshman. This team could really shock some people with a higher finish.

     10.  Hempfield --220

Someone had to give this team some love. They’ve run two fantastic races in a row and have held a tight spread behind a nice 1-2 punch with Brady and Yurchak. This team starts and ends with seniors, but has two sophomores, two juniors, and a freshman who are all strong runners. Their #6 is close behind their 5^th (4 seconds), which gives them some room to err. 

   11. Central Bucks West – 222 – edge on the 6^th man, will need big performances from their top 3 again if they want to break into the top 7 or 8 teams. 

   12. Carlisle 222 –If Wisner and DeAngelo can both have big races this team will be set for a top 7 finish, but it just hasn’t happened this season. 

   That's All for Now Folks!

  -- ForrestCRN

Evan's AAA State Medalists

This is my top 25 for the state meet this weekend.  Best of luck to everybody racing, especially my Mt. Lebo boys.  I’ll be anxiously awaiting the results of the meet as I will be in Lexington, Kentucky for the NIRCA Great Lakes Regional Championship with the Ohio State Running Club and can’t go home to see it.  States this year is bizarre in that after the first few runners, it is wide open.  Half of these kids could get 40th, but they could also get 15th if they have a great day, its going to be a crazy weekend.  

1.  Colin Abert - 15:37 - Easton Area - Sr

I don’t see any scenario where Abert loses this race, he just wants it that bad.  He isn’t afraid of any pace and it is very possible that he leads wire to wire and never looks back.  I imagine he will take the first mile out hard as he has since his sophomore year.  I don’t think he’ll go through in 4:42 like he did that year, but I think 4:45-4:47 is a definite possibility.  Ultimately, I see him taking down Russell’s course record and getting himself his first state gold.

2. Kevin James - 15:46 - Cardinal O’Hara - Sr

Other than Abert, Kevin James has had the best season of anybody in Pennsylvania.  He ran 15:11 and 15:22 this season and ran 15:54 at Foundation.  He has 2 cross country state medals and has run the meet every year since he was a freshman.  With Cardinal O’Hara fighting for a shot at a state title, he’ll get them the 2 points that they need.  

3. Jake Brophy - 15:47 - Central Bucks East - Jr

Brophy has been a force since he came out guns blazing as a freshman, a year that included a 30th place finish at states, the highest finish by a freshman since Vince McNally took 13th in 2004.  Brophy has proven that he can show up on the big stage his entire career and after his win at D1, he’s ready to go.  He could absolutely steal the show and take down Abert.

4. Casey Comber - 15:53 - Hatboro Horsham - Sr

I’m a huge Casey Comber fan.  I love stories of runners who worked their way up their team rankings and finally broke out.  Comber, on paper, is the best cross country runner that Hatboro Horsham has ever had, which is crazy when you look at the runners that came through that program.  Josh, Dan, Seth, and Sam Hibbs as well as Connor Quinn.  That’s good company to be in.  Comber has to be hungry for a win after coming up short to Brophy and Marston at D1.  He is my deep sleeper for the win.

5. Matt McGoey - 15:55 - North Allegheny - Sr

Without a doubt the best runners North Allegheny has had since Ryan Gil, McGoey has done nothing but make statements the entire year.  When he dropped a 15:55 at TriStates on the unbelievably difficult Cal U course, I knew he was ready to go for states.  Having run against and seen Matt run numerous times, I can tell you that he is not afraid to get after it.  He knows that he needs a big race for NA to get the team title and I see him giving his all to get them there.

6. Andrew Marston - 15:58 - Conestoga - Sr

Marston has had a fantastic season and is probably a top 3 for a lot of people.  I, however, think that he peaked at McQuaid.  He hasn’t done anything since then that blew me away.  If he has a great day I think he could sneak into the top 3, especially with his team vying for a state title.  That being said, I think sixth is realistic.

7. Paul Power - 15:58 - Spring Ford - Sr

Power was the story of the year in September when he dropped a 15:50 on the Hershey hills.  He followed that up with a 15:24 in a very fast Paul Short race.  He ran a 15:31 at District 1, but looking over the video of that race, he got dropped hard in the last 800 by Brophy and Marston and ultimately got caught by Comber and Webb as well.  I still think he will have a great race, but I think he may be a bit burnt up.

8. Aaron Gebhart - 16:00 - New Oxford - Sr

Gebhart flew pretty under the radar the whole year, but came on big at D3 to take down Sieger and Brehm, who had battled back and forth the entire year.  He looked very strong on the hills at D3 and I think he will have another big race come states to get himself a top 10 finish.

9. Zach Sieger - 16:03 - Red Land - Jr

Sieger is another runner who I’m a big fan of.  He just missed out on a medal last year at the state meet (28th) after a big breakout season.  He is yet to finish out of the top 3 in a race this year, but I can’t see him continuing that streak on such a big stage.  I’m excited to see the D3 battle continue into the state meet.

10. Sam Webb - 16:07 - Pennsbury - Sr

Webb, much like Gebhart, flew pretty under the radar this whole year, but came up big to take 4th at D1, running a PR 15:26.  Webb is one of the most consistently good runners in the state and isn’t afraid of a fast pace.  He could sneak into the top 5 if he is on this Saturday.

11. Zach Brehm - 16:12 - Carlisle - Sr

This year is really senior heavy, isn’t it?  Anyways, Zach Brehm.  Brehm just took 3rd at D3 to Gebhart and Sieger, two runners he beat handily earlier in the year.  I watched the D3 race video and Brehm did not look his best on the hills, which obviously, are a huge part of the state meet.  He has one of the most lethal kicks in the state, but if the hills put him too far back, which I think they will, I don’t see him finishing any higher than 11th.

12. Henry Sappey - 16:13 - Downingtown West - Jr

Sappey made huge steps this year to establish himself as a front runner for this very young DTW team.  Early in the season, a lot of people had their hearts set on DWest as state champs.  The loss of several runners put these thoughts to rest pretty quick, but Sappey quickly took control of the team.  Going from 84th to 7th at D1 in a year is huge, Sappey is ready to take it to the next level.

13. Ryan James - 16:21 - Cardinal O’Hara - So

Ryan James, much like his brother, is a beast.  He relaxed a 16:41 alongside KJ and Rob Morro to go 1-3 at D12 and ran his then PR, yes PR, on the hills at Hershey in September.  He had several big races to make sure the James name wasn’t going anywhere when KJ left and I think he gets O’Hara the second low mark they need to finally get themselves a team title.

14. Alex Knapp - 16:23 - West Chester Henderson - Sr

With the departure of Russell and Barchet, Knapp had to take over the historically great West Chester Henderson team.  Under his lead, what seemed like a lost year resulted in a 2nd place finish at D1 (only 8 points out of 1st) and the development of a great 2-4.  His times haven’t been as quick as they were last year, but I think he finds another gear and sneaks into the top 15 at states.

15. Jake Susalla - 16:24 - Plum - Jr

Plum junior Jake Susalla flung himself into the conversation when he took 3rd at WPIALs last week.  I think he was one of the few runners in D7 with the ability to break up McGoey and Wharrey, and with the absence of Jeff Van Kooten at the state meet, Susalla is going to step up and get in between the two of them.

16. Hunter Wharrey - 16:27 - North Allegheny - Sr

Wharrey showed up big this year and made some big statements early on, running 15:32 and 15:41, just barely behind teammate Matt McGoey.  However, I don’t think he is quite where he was at the beginning of the season anymore.  He went from being 2-5 seconds behind McGoey to now almost 30.  I think he still gets a medal at the state level and gets NA another low mark, but I can’t see him being any higher than 12th if he has a very good day.

17. Brad Foust - 16:28 - Altoona - Sr

Foust came out of nowhere last year to grab a medal at the state meet, running the hills in 16:34 for 21st.  This year, he grabbed a 2nd place finish at D6, narrowly losing to Alex Milligan of State College.  He has the experience that he needs to sneak into the top 20 and to get himself a quick time.

18. Eric Diestelow - 16:28 - West Chester East - Sr

Diestelow sadly came up short last year at the state meet, only finishing 64th after taking 17th at the district meet.  He has got a solid season in him, even giving Sappey and Knapp a scare at Chesmonts, and I think he is ready to finally get himself a state medal.  If he has a good day, I could see him as high as 13th.

19. Kevin Lapsanksy - 16:29 - Easton Area - Jr

Lapsanksy, alongside Abert, makes up half of the best 1-2 in the state.  He made big strides this year to bring his PR down to 15:48 and grab 3 runner up races behind Abert.  He hasn’t run slower than 16:30 this year and I imagine that he’ll keep his streak alive.

20. Brian Arita - 16:32 - Council Rock North - Sr

Arita, according to Forrest, is a much better strength runner than anything, which will certainly benefit him on the hills this weekend.  He snuck into the top 10 in a D1 meet that was certainly not as deep as the last few years, but top 10 is top 10 and he still ran 15:56.  I think he’s ready to go this week and grabs the final top 20 spot.

21. Ian Baun - 16:33 - Mount Lebanon - Sr

Baun proved himself this year to be a solid front runner for a Lebo team that hadn’t had such a thing since the days of Alex Moran.  Since Ian joined the team as a freshman, we knew he would be a very important part of the team.  His 16:38 at Foundation turned a lot of heads I think.  He is dangerous on any course that he runs and he isn’t afraid to take on hills, which is what you need at Hershey.

22. Jacob Heinauer - 16:34 - North Hills - Sr

Heinauer was barely on my radar at the start of the season, I believe I had him 22nd in my preseason rankings.  He did, however, prove himself big time.  He had possibly the best junior-senior jump of anybody that I have ever seen.  That being said, I can’t help but think that he’s falling off a little bit at the end of the season.  He finished 8th at WPIALs, a race that I definitely think he should have been 2nd or 3rd at.  I think he will still get a medal at the state level, but I don’t think he’s quite as on as he was at the season’s beginning.

23. Rock Fortna - 16:34 - Central Bucks West - Jr

Fortna made huge improvements from his sophomore to junior year, sneaking into the top 15 at D1 in 16:03.  He established himself as the #1 on a CBWest team that quickly became a team vying for a top 8 spot at states.  The only thing that worries is me is that, to my knowledge, he has never set foot on the Hershey course.  I still think he’ll medal, but he could suffer a bit on the hills if he doesn’t know what is coming to him.

24. Andrew Hanna - 16:35 - Council Rock South - Jr

Hanna is one of the most steadily improving runners in the state.  Each race this year has been faster than the one before it and after getting the final top 10 spot at D1, Hanna is ready to roll.  He was top 50 at the state meet last year, and he has the experience that he needs to get himself a medal.

25. Ethan Linderman - 16:38 - Canon-McMillan - Sr

I wish I knew where it was, but several months ago, I posted a comment on one of the blogs that said, “Ethan Linderman from Canon Mac will medal at states. Period.”  I’m sticking to that in my predictions.  Linderman is one of the most clutch runners I have ever seen/run against.  At WPIALs in track last year he closed the 3200 in about 63 to make up 3 places and grab a spot in the top 8.  He has three races under 16:20 this year, a couple wins under his belt, and I’m sticking to my word from earlier that he will get the last medal spot.

Just missed:

Yahya Soliman

Brian Delaney

Alex Milligan

Quinn Wasko

Jack Carmody

I’ll put together some team predictions if I find the time before the week ends.  Good luck to everybody competing and I wish I could be there to see how it plays out!

Thanks for reading!

-Evan Hatton