Tri-States Preview

Its that time of year again and one of the season’s most exciting meets is just around the corner.  The Tri State Championships, which this year has been moved from its long time home at Coopers Lake to the brutal Cal U course.  Aaron Benka would be the top returner in the field, but with entries now closed, Grove City does not seem to be attending the meet.  I’m assuming that is due to the course change, but its a real shame we will not get to see Benka-Budnik take on the hills at Cal.  Jeff Van Kooten is the top returner with the absence of the Grove City boys, but after he struggled to a 17:26 at Slippery Rock last week I’m not sure what we’ll see from him.  North Allegheny did not run there A team at this meet last year, which cleared the way for Mt. Lebanon to take the team title.  Lebo is very comfortable with the Cal course and I think they will certainly give NA a run for their money.  However, I have a strong feeling that NA going to do the same thing this year and rest their top guys for WPIALs, which should leave the door wide open for Mt. Lebanon to win it again.  That being said, when I do my individual and team predictions a bit later I am going to leave NA in there, just in case.  Altoona is having a strong season behind Brad Foust and could certainly sneak on to the podium.  I would like to see Dom Stroh step up and have a comeback race, as he looks to be having a bit of an off season.  Fox Chapel has had a handful of solid races throughout the year, but I’m a bit worried about front man Elias Graca.  He opened up his season with a spectacular 15:44, but then took a month off and only ran 16:36 at Pittsburgh Central Catholic.  I’m hoping he can bounce back and have a strong race, Fox Chapel really needs it.   Overall, I think the team picture will play out something like this:

1. 73 - North Allegheny
2. 84 - Mt. Lebanon
3. 120 - Altoona Area
4. 128 - Pittsburgh Central Catholic
5. 195 - Baldwin

Individually, Matt McGoey is certainly the favorite to win.  If he runs that is.  Hunter Wharrey could certainly steal the spotlight from McGoey though.  Jeff Van Kooten had a string of strong races, actually taking down Wharrey, but he suffered a disappointing 7th at Slippery Rock.  If he has bounced back from that, he will be dangerous, especially if it comes down to a kick at the end.  Deep sleepers would be Jake Susalla of Plum, Brad Foust of Altoona and Ian Baun of Mount Lebanon.  Keep in mind that the Cal U course is one of the most brutal courses you will ever run, so I’m keeping the times realistic to what I think is possible.

Individual predictions:

1. 16:27 - Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
2. 16:29 - Jeff Van Kooten, Pittsburgh CC
3. 16:33 - Hunter Wharrey, North Allegheny
4. 16:38 - Jake Susalla, Plum
5. 16:39 - Ian Baun, Mount Lebanon
6. 16:44 - Brad Foust, Altoona
7. 16:46 - Nick Wolk, Peters Township
8. 16:50 - Scott Seel, North Allegheny
9. 16:51 - Todd Gunzenhauser, Mount Lebanon
10. 16:54 - Elias Graca, Fox Chapel
11. 17:00 - Noah Smith, Ringgold
12. 17:02 - Tanner Quiggle, Seneca Valley
13. 17:08 - Ian Harris, Mount Lebanon
14. 17:11 - Brett Trottier, Franklin Regional
15. 17:12 - Casey Conboy, Baldwin
16. 17:12 - Shane Burkhart, Bethel Park
17. 17:13 - Zack White, West Allegheny
18. 17:19 - Jacob Halasowski, Fox Chapel
19. 17:20 - Jerrod Sunderland, Altoona
20. 17:23 - Aaron Pfeil, South Fayette

Well, this is how I think the race will play out.  I’m really hoping NA brings their whole squad so I can see how my boys back home fair against them.  Let me know what you guys think and thanks for reading!

-Evan