Forrest's Top 12 Teams AAA States

    1. North Allegany - 110

I just can’t seem them losing the race at this point in the season. Mcgoey and Wharrey both seem locks within the top 10/12 runners and Scott Seel is tied for the the best #3 in the state with Rob Morro (of O’Hara). NA and O’Hara seem almost the same through 1-3, but the big difference for me with come at the 4^th spot. I think Jacob Stupak will have a great race. At Foundation he was 57 seconds behind Seel, the next race Seel did not run, but he was 47 seconds behind Wharrey, then at Tri-States he was 19 seconds behind Seel, and finally at WPIAL’s he was just 13 seconds behind. He’s made some big improvements and he went out quite slow at Districts (5:32/11:02), but still finished 13^th. It’s not like Seel has gotten worse with a 6^th place WPIAL finish, Stupak has just gotten a lot better. And finally they’ve got a great #5 in Zach Deible, who beat Mt. Lebo’s 2 at Districts.

2    2. Cardinal O’Hara – 135

O’Hara has a very solid top 3 and if Drew Pastore were healthy I have no question that they’d challenge NA for the win. Basically I think both teams will be even in terms of points on runners 1, 2, 3, and 5, but Stupak over Pastore will be the biggest factor. The solid top 3 will help them edge out the pack of La Salle.

3. La Salle – 140

Boy did I miss out on La Salle when this season started. They’ve got a really incredible pack that hasn’t broken at all this year and they run some rough courses. Manhattan showed they weren’t a fluke and they were phenomenal with their District win. I think if they can get someone in the top 30 and the pack follows like usual they can get at minimum 125 points, but I think they just fall short with their top finisher around 33^rd place.

4. Cumberland Valley – 178

This is where I might go very wrong and I’m clearly terrible at picking 4^th place teams, so I’ve basically cursed CV, but I love going out on a limb with a team and I think it’ll be these guys. Quinn Wasko has been very impressive all season, especially his consistency. Last weekend Soliman ran with his teammates and tempo’d the race to finish right between his 3 and 5 teammate. Because of this and his relaxed race at Paul Short I think he comes up big for his team. Higgins in a solid 3 man and I like Seeber as well at the 4^th position. 

       5.Conestoga – 190

I’m not sure just yet how I feel about picking them for 5^th. They have really underwhelmed me, but Cooper was 41^st last year, Nelson looks great this season and Marston is a very solid top guy. Not to mention Pj Murray having a nice season for his first XC year. They were District champions and I think they’ve got a lot more in them.

     6.  Easton – 196

This team has a ton of potential for a top 4 team. If Abert and Lapsansky can combine for 10 points or less and the two Greg’s have good races they should be set. Sherman looked like a great #3 at Districts and Koch has withstood the pressure this season that has been put on him despite being a sophomore. This team has guts and great leadership of Abert. When you’re running behind the best man in the state you’ve got some inspiration to do well. Abert will be fired and up so will this squad.

     7.Council Rock North – 200

No way this team falls lower than 7^th place. I thought they raced terribly at Districts all around. Arita didn’t go when he should have and ran a reserved, fearful second mile and the team looked that way all around. Griswold usually comes up big and didn’t and Heintz looked poor. The sophomore Haas showed some strong resolve to help them make it to states, but I think this team will bounce back and really bring it this weekend. Top 5 should be the goal, but there are quite a few teams that could bounce around them. 

     8.  West Chester Henderson – 209

I thought I was being a bit generous with this pick to be honest. Knapp I think is a lock for top 15 and is racing well during championship season. Swart had a big comeback race at Districts and moved up well, while Smucker went out hard and held on. Barchet looked solid all the way through and I like this team overall. I’d be hard pressed to imagine Smucker getting under 17 minutes and Ben Berkman had a 30 second PR at Districts. At best he runs 18 flat, which gives him about 85-90 points. So for them to score under 200 points this team needs to average 27 points a man for their front 4. 

    9.   Mount Lebanon – 219

I don’t know how I feel about this pick just yet, but despite a poor District race I think this team has more to show. Todd Gunzenhauser should have a big race at States and I think he’ll bring Ian Baun with him (or Baun will bring Gunz) either way I think they finish within 2-3 places of each other and could be the 24/25^th place finishers in the race in my opinion. After that they’ve been shakey, but they know the hills of Hershey and have ran them well. I like Harris’ consistency and Brandenstein always races well with him and is a beast of a freshman. This team could really shock some people with a higher finish.

     10.  Hempfield --220

Someone had to give this team some love. They’ve run two fantastic races in a row and have held a tight spread behind a nice 1-2 punch with Brady and Yurchak. This team starts and ends with seniors, but has two sophomores, two juniors, and a freshman who are all strong runners. Their #6 is close behind their 5^th (4 seconds), which gives them some room to err. 

   11. Central Bucks West – 222 – edge on the 6^th man, will need big performances from their top 3 again if they want to break into the top 7 or 8 teams. 

   12. Carlisle 222 –If Wisner and DeAngelo can both have big races this team will be set for a top 7 finish, but it just hasn’t happened this season. 

   That's All for Now Folks!

  -- ForrestCRN