Top 15 Teams!

Well I’ve been working on a projected Meet of Champions race to try and score the top 10 teams, but it seems as though I really don’t have the time for it, so maybe Etrain will set something up like it on his long train rides to work. For now I’m doing the best I can, but let me say that these top 3 teams on the mini projections I’ve made are all over 90 points and under 100 points.

Please do not trash or comment on runners personalities or lives on here people. I do not have time to control all of these posts and I don't want to have to approve comments against. 

1.       Malvern Prep (IND) – This team has retained their state #1 spot, but they’re hanging on by a thread (and 1 point). Jaxson Hoey is a very good top guy and although he’s been having some tough races due to some dehydration, but I have confidence he’ll be back. He’s run strong with the top guys and the experience will come in handy at regionals. Billy McDevitt has been huge for this team. We knew what the other pieces of this team would look like, but McDevitt’s improvements this season has been big for MP and I think it really gives them a shot to make nationals. Josh Hoey is in a similar place to his older brother, but again these young guys have 6 weeks to rest and improve. I also like the 4-5 combo they’ve got as well in Wills and Doane. No question that if they were in District 1 both runners would be under 16 minutes. Putting it in perspective of Henderson last season at Lehigh in late October they’d probably score a very similar number of points.

2.       Cardinal O’Hara (District 12 AAA) – Yes Andrew, O’Hara is still second on my list. I really love this team. Any time you’ve got 3 James’ on the same team you’ve got to be a fan. I think there is a really great chance that it’s finally O’Hara’s year. Although West Chester Henderson is looking better than many expected, they won’t be the ones to take the title from O’Hara this season, nor will North Penn be that squad. Kevin James is poised for a top 5 finish once again and sophomore Ryan James in my opinion will be a lock to medal. Drew Pastore finished 65^th last season and is the 35^th returner from last season. He hasn’t looked great, but he’s made huge improvements throughout the season, which makes me feel as though he was sick earlier but will be ready by states. Morro was a sub 10 freshman and I’m always a big fan of them. He’s made huge improvements this season such as a drop on Hershey’s course of 48 seconds from last season. Patrick James, a freshman, is making moves towards that 5^th spot but they’ve also got guys like Jack Nolen fighting for the spot who had run on some big relays and has the experience and can handle the pressure. 

3.       Conestoga (District 1AAA) – This team has yet to run a 5k, so I refuse to comment on them… Nah I’m just joking, but serious guys, a 5k or just a race in PA for that matter, would be kinda nice. I’m just saying. But then again, I think it’s awesome that they’re expanding to other races. They had an awesome 3 mile race and Marston is looking so, so good. He’s got this amazing presence as a leader and I think that’s huge for a team. I think he’s really rallied this team and has made them believe and hey, when you’re running 14:31 for 3 miles on a difficult lay-out, I’d buy in. Right now Cooper, who is the 21^st returner from last season, is their 4^th man. If he continues at the same rate of average improvement in the state then they’ve theoretically got 4 medalists, which is just crazy. Pj Murry and Killian Nelson have made some huge leaps this season, which is great to see. I just need a little more to go off of to really rank this team and Manhattan, despite being a 4k, will allow me to really compare them to other top ranked teams in the region and we can compare them to the Henderson squads that have raced the previous two seasons. I’m stoked and they very well could top this list next week.

4.       North Allegheny (District 7AAA) – NA has begun to found 4-5 runners in Stupak and Migliozzi, but they’ve still got a bit to go. They’ve also got freshman in Tj Robinson who was just under 30 seconds behind them and could potentially make an impact late in the season. They’ve got two clear top 10 AAA runners (in my opinion) with Mcgoey and Wharrey and Scott Seel, despite not looking great this year, ran 11 seconds faster than he did at states last season, at Foundation this year, which should put him right around 30-35^th at states. Basically 1-3 they’ll have scored 35 team points, but the question will be can they get one more guy under 17 minutes and a 5^th under 17:20. The curve is important (see Flotrack).

5.       Mount Lebanon (District 7AAA) – I’ve become a huge fan of this team. Not only is Evan Hatton a great guy who I’ve been able to have great conversation with over the past few weeks, but they’ve got some total studs. Ian Baun is not messing around this season and it seems like Gunzenhauser is beginning to catch up. I think both will place top 30 in the state and I’d be shocked if one didn’t grab a medal. After that they’ve got valuable experience at the state meet from Harris and Stone and this freshman Bryce Brandenstein ran 17:32, which would have put him 8^th among all freshman last season at the state meet (yes I counted all divisions). He could very well be one of the top 3 freshman this season when all is said and done and will be a major contributor towards this team’s success. NA better watch out at WPIALs. 

6.       Cumberland Valley (District 3AAA) – It was really a tough call on the next few teams since it’s pretty close, but CV gets the nod here because of the fabulous weekend they had at Paul Short. I think they ran almost perfectly and up to potential. I love to see that happen. Things are finally clicking with Soliman and he’s up with Quinn Wasko as both of them broke 16 minutes at Lehigh. Next are training partners Higgins and Seeber followed by Cahill. With about 20 seconds between each group the 40 second spread is fantastic. I see Wasko and Soliman being very similar to Baun and Gunz. They’ve got an opportunity to race together and place top 30 in the state and Soliman should have a legit shot at medaling as a sophomore out of District 3, which is tough to do. Of course having to run the District 3 course before the state meet will make things tough for these guys, but they’ve got a lot of talent and if they are able to take it a bit easier and run as a pack to qualify (which will be tough with Carlisle and Hershey closely chasing them) they could attempt to make a run at the two District 7 power houses.

7.       York Suburban (District 3AA) – This is probably the highest place a AA team has entered on my list. I wasn’t totally sold on these guys after Foundation. I love Wilt and Mears as a combination up front, but having your 4-5 runners around 18 flat at Hershey isn’t very good. That being said they’ve got a 3^rd man running 17:33 (a second behind other stud freshman Brandenstein) so a lot of potential is out there for these guys. Then they ran Carlisle. They entered the big boy race and took down DTW, Henderson, La Salle, Red Land, Cumberland Valley, and Carlisle. DANG. And they did this with Bryce Ohl (wait… both stud freshman are named Bryce… hmmm…) being their 5^th man after beating his teammates by almost 30 seconds at Hershey. Either we have to chalk it up to a poor race on his part at Carlisle or both Wagner and Barley had poor races at Hershey. Either way this team hasn’t run the best that they can. That’s scary coming from a AA team.

8.       West Chester Henderson (District 1AAA) – Yes. It’s happened already. Henderson is back on this list. Alex Knapp is not looking good at all for them, but they’ve still made it. Barchet and Swart are really working well tougher and should be breaking 16 minutes at Districts. Smucker is another top notch freshman and they’ve got a fine 5^th man in Berkman, who will only make huge jumps. I think Coach Kelly is making some great calls here by running these kids in separate meets and not putting huge expectations on them. Knapp will need to show he is once again in medalist shape if they are going to do anything big at states, but they tied DT West at Carlisle, beat them in a dual meet, and they just destroyed DTW over 3200m and had a random guy in Apurva Deschmukh (please don’t get good, because I’m never going to spell your name correctly again or be able to pronounce it correctly) run 10:21. This team has got a lot going for them and we know how well they come on when it matters. 

9.       Easton Area (District 11AAA) – I’m going to give Easton potentially a bit too much love right here, but I really liked how they raced at Lehigh. Abert is the top guy in the state right now, no questions asked (although I think Marston is way underrated) and Lapsansky is a medal contender at their #2 spot. Behind him Sherman and Grunwald are very nice 3-4 men. The biggest question is their #5 man. Logan Koch is a sophomore and behind him is a freshman who named Guydish. If they can work together or one of them can make a jump to work make it a 3-5 group these guys will be scary out of District 11. They just wooped Parkland in a dual meet as well.

10.   Downingtown West (District 1AAA) – I haven’t given up on these guys just yet, but at the beginning of the season they had a ton of potential, but it hasn’t been capitalized on. They have suffered a lot of injures, but still a team with so much depth last season has just not showed it this year. I love what Sappey is doing and Ben Ryherd showed great strength with a 4^th place finish at the 3200m Invitational today. Pelcin and Barton will need to get it together however if this team wants to make splashes at the state level.

11.   Central Bucks West (District 1 AAA) – These guys have continued to look great and I really don’t have any complaints. 

12.   Carlisle (District 3 AAA) – Another strong team out of District 3 this season. Brehm is a wonderful number 1 and although DeAngelo and Wisner have not been the most consistent 2-3 runners in the state they are great guys to have on your team. I fear one of them breaking down at Hershey and this team falling apart.

13.   Hershey (District 3 AAA) – Huge fan of the 1-2 punch of Demko and Sponaugle. Watch out for these guys. Have they ran a dual meet against Carlisle yet? I’d love to see it play out. 

14.   La Salle College (District 12AAA) – I have been told District 12 is getting two teams this season? I am unsure if this is true. I hope it is, because a spread of 20 seconds should get challenged at the state meet. I love the spread that they’re working and I hope it continues. They ran amazing at Briarwood and looked solid once again at Carlisle. 

15.   State College Area (District 6AAA) – Yes I’ve got this team above J.P. McCaskey, Parkland, and Red Land, who all beat them at Carlisle. They started out their season very well and I have not lost faith. Their start last season was stellar and they really didn’t look great again until the state meet when everything came together perfectly for their 4^th place finish. They return 4 runners from that team including Milligan and Feffer who are big time guys. I think they will surprise people.

The 16^th team on this list is a tie between Red Land and Council Rock North right now. 

I hope all of this was worth the wait!

--ForrestCRN