Friday, October 24, 2014

District 1 Thoughts -- ForrestCRN



Initial Thoughts:
West Chester Henderson takes second with 4 runners in the top 20. Smucker is the top freshman in 18th. These boys packed up very well and Knapp came up big as expected to placed 6th overall for his team. A 103 5th man really hurt these guys, but if they can run similar at the state meet, they’ll continue this trend of a beastly top 4 that we’ve seen across the state this season. 

Oh yea, Conestoga won their first District title! Congrats to them! Marston had a very strong race for second place to beat out Comber at the end and Killian looked good in 14th place. Murray had another solid race and really stepped up for this team with a 21st place finish. Cooper was 41st at the state meet last season and was 74th at Districts this season. If he were up with Murray and Nelson this team would be really dangerous, but sadly that’s now how his season progressed. They clearly are great through 7 men with everyone breaking 17 minutes on a very slow day (but then again DTW did the same thing)

CB West grabbed the 3rd spot and boy they had exactly the day they needed. Mass has really slowed down, but Ian Davies and Iatarola had huge races and both placed in the top 25 following a 13th place finish from Rock Fortna. This is by far the best we’ve seen this team this season and it’s in the post-season. It’s their first time going to the state meet in Etrain knows when. 

CRN raced pretty poorly. I’m glad they continued the trend of making the state meet, but I’m fairly disappointed with the results from these guys. Arita went out slow and was in 13th with 600m left and was able to finish 9th, but it wasn’t a smart race by him, but on a slow day the guys behind him raced the same or slower than they did at leagues (on a much slower day), but CBW guys all had improvements. Griswold (-), Haas (-1), Laitman (+3), Heintz (+6). Things haven’t totally come together for these guys yet, but I’m hoping the hills of Hershey will do them some favors. This team does have some hope for a good future with 3 impressive sophomores and two solid freshmen (JV race were under 17:45). That being said they had the best 5th man in the district, which is possibly the first time that’s happened for Council Rock North (2004 – present).

DTW makes states with the last spot just being out an impressive performance from the Central Bucks East. Sappey ran very well and finish 7th overall followed by a very tight pack of 12 seconds 2-5. They return all but 5th man Charlie Barton, but Jake O’Neil is just a second behind him. This team has time to really pull everything together, but this is a good step from 8th to 5th in the District and it gives them some valuable state meet experience. CBE looked great for 6th place just 11 seconds behind DTW. Brophy grabbed the victory, no surprises there, and a very solid race from Connor Sands (who will go to states) really helped this team’s lower placement. 

Pennsbury missed out big time. Webb ran a great race of 15:26 to place 4th overall. He’s just a beast in the post-season. That’s all that needs to be said about that. Alek Sauer usually comes up big, but he’s had a very tough XC campaign and it didn’t finish well as he placed 40th overall and was the first one out of the state meet. Bortman ran decent and finished the same time from leagues to districts, but Tokar and Wick had tough days in the 4-5 slots and either broke 17. Not sure why the other Wick didn’t run, but Sauer’s twin freshman brothers Aiden and Aidan (I almost hope this isn’t true for their sakes) ran 17:41 and 18;01, for what that’s worth. 

Last piece of note Council Rock South had two individual qualifiers in Hanna (10th) and Maguire (19th) who return next year along with their 4-7 runners. Their 15th place finish is a bit worse than what we saw from 12th place CB West from last season, but I think these guys will really contend next year with two great low sticks.

Individually we know Brophy got the win. I’m not surprised in the least bit. He is such a stud in XC and I’ll never forget watching him finish last season at the district race as he glided in with a smile on his face looking so relaxed after a 15:24. The kid just has it and he can kick really hard. No way Marston, Comber, Power, or even Webb can keep up with his speed/strength combination. A really fast states race would be the only thing that could really hurt him, and frankly I think that’s what we’ll see with Abert leading the charge. Power had a tough day and I’m intrigued with how he’ll turn out at the state meet. I think, if the day is good, we could see another sub 16 performance from him, but who knows. The 3 studs from Ches-Mont’s finish 6-8. I thought Arita could break them up, but they just enjoy running together too much. Knapp gets the nod over Sappey as predicted. 

Hanna raced much better than expected and almost beat Arita. He’s really done fantastic this season and I’ve been very impressed. He’ll be a real force on the track this year, I have no doubt. The sophomore stud from Souderton, Connor McMenamin placed 11th overall and I would bet he’ll be a medalist at states. He’s been a great all season and he broke 16 on a very slow day. Great to see Lukas Marcelis’ name in red from Wissahickon. His training seems much more on point this season and he peaked exceptionally well. We didn’t see him too high in any meets or rankings all year but his very quick 16:16 proves how solid he’s looking. Placing 20th is big for him after missing states last year. Sands gets the nod after a big race for CBE.

 We also saw another two sophomores individual made the state meet in Austin Maxwell of Kennett and Liam Galligan of Springfield. Galligan has been on our radar for a while and his 30th place finish comes as no shock. Austin Maxwell is a guy I probably should have picked up on and I would have said he had an outside shot at making it, but his 25th place I did not see coming at all. He placed 11th at Ches-Mont’s (8th finisher for Ches-Mont’s at Districts) and his 2 mile PR is from this XC season in 10:09, but he is able to roll at 5:16 pace for 5k. I’m very excited to see how he progresses. Also representing the sophomore class well from D1 are Iatarola and McDonald from CBW. 

We have two freshman who qualified for the state meet in Spencer Smucker (18th) and Liam Conway (27th). I knew Smucker was good, but I didn’t think he could beat Conway, but he did and by 9 seconds. Smucker is looking scarily similar to Reiny Barchet did and maybe, if he can stay injury free, we’ll see some fantastic races in his future. For now he’s representing WCH very well as a 4th man. Conway had a tough race after his great 16:10 performance from leagues. It’s just important that he’s made it to the state meet. The experience will be valuable for him. And he helped junior Abe Van Helmond make it as well.

 Shaun Collins is the only NP runner to make it, Tung had a very rough day, Eddinger and O’Reilly, the 800 specialists made it, along with seniors Eric Chapman and Jonathan Perlman. Perlman was with Arita at two miles, but a 30 second rift was caused in the last mile by Arita’s kick, but more so of Perlman’s lack of health. He’ll have another week of recover under him next week, but the hills will be tough. It’s a shame after he started off so strongly. Another senior stud who sneaks in after injury is Josh Smith of Avon Grove who also didn’t run leagues, but placed 33rd to get a spot. We also saw two Bensalem runners in Mays and Ramirez make it in and finally senior Phil Gunderson of Pennridge gets the last spot in 16:29. This year was even slower than my senior season that had me at 61st place in 16:44, but that was 58th today.

 Scarpill of CB South also did not race, which is a real shame.

If anyone could tell me why this was the case that’d be great, because it rained yesterday morning, but the District 11 race obviously wasn’t nearly as affected at the District One race and vey both accrued similar rain levels. 

--ForrestCRN

53 comments:

  1. How about WC Rustin with a top 10 finish today?

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    1. yeah they ran great and if they hadn't lost their 4th guy to injury they're in states and DTW would have choked again.

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    2. Really a shame about that injury. Especially with the way their top 4 performed today. Had Coates been healthy and stuck Cook and Vogt, Rustin might have taken 4th today. Would've been a cool story if they pulled off the underdog thing but you have to give that top 4 credit for coming out of nowhere and performing though.

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  2. Waiting for the big ups for Shanahan for their 3rd place finish...in AA. Why did they drop down? Their girls team didn't. Is that what you do when the competition is too stiff?

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    1. Dropping down is not the schools choice. The classifications are based on school size for each gender.

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    2. 400 male students is the line between AA and AAA. According to the PIAA website shanahan has 393 males. Their female population is over 400, hence the girls are AAA. You dont get to pick your class.

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    3. I thought I read on here once that Henderson chooses to compete in AAA, but is eligible for AA. Anyone? RJJL?

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    4. Henderson has about 500-650 male students I would guess. Very impressive since they are a public school (unlike ohara) that is way smaller than NA (idk how many male athletes but NA is pretty huge)

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    5. Seriously? I didn't realize they were that small.

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    6. it's not a matter of school size, it's all about recruiting.

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    7. For private schools its all about recruiting. For public schools like Henderson, you get whatever genetic specimins the district sends you.

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    8. or whatever strings you can pull

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  3. Forrest, since you mentioned it was a slow day I looked up last years results. Oh man, you weren't kidding. Last kid to run sub 16 last year was in 32nd place! This year last sub-16 runner was 11th overall.
    The first 3 came through today pretty quick and then there was what seemed like a long pause before the rest of the top guys finished. I ran the course today and it seemed like good conditions so don't think weather was a factor. Just an off year maybe?

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    1. Last year it was colder and better conditions.
      Last year D1 had better runners as well.
      Both played factors.

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    2. Don't know when you ran, but during the AAA race, the flags visible around the 2nd mile were standing straight out. Wind was in the runners face for a lot of the race. Had to be a factor.

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    3. Compare Knapp and Diestelow to last year. They really did not get any slower, but their times are.

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    4. It was more of a weather thing than a people being worse thing.

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    5. ^ no it wasn't. The district was incredibly talented in 2012 and 2013. With a bunch of guy running fast others get pulled along and perform better. This year was back to an average year for D1.

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    6. ^ you're right. I've heard people posting on here that the talent is not as great as the past few years, and I think it's true to a degree. I ran both years and last year was cooler but this year was fine too. I mean, I didn't really take note of the weather which means it didn't matter either way. I ran the AAA race..

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    7. I think it had to do with the weather and how the top pack decided to race. The runners could have gone out hard and strung out the race, but instead the top pack was out in only ~5 flat. From there they continued the pace and hit ~10 flat. Arita was out in 10:17.

      The pace to start out a meet can really affect how the race plays out. Arita even said the second 800 was probably faster than the first 800 during the opening mile.

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    8. When the 2nd place team has only 1 runner under 16:00, where they had all 7 under 16:00 last year, it's definitely a slower year. Why? Don't know but it sounds like the pace was just overall slower. Not to take anything away from those top runners. It is what is is.

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    9. Go back and look at the times of the runners who ran at both Paul Short and District 1; as they are both run on the same course at Lehigh. Almost every time is 15 seconds slower. So either everyone regressed, or weather was a factor.

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    10. Just saying but Paul Short and Districts are slightly different courses. Paul Short has a starting line further back, and the first turn is before the tree statues at about 800m. Districts has a starting line that is moved up a bit, but the course runs behind the trees. Not sure if this makes any of a difference, the last 4200m of the race is exactly the same, but it could contribute to the differences in time in the first mile.

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    11. It literally makes no difference

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    12. Weather was perfect. Wish you babies would stop with the excuses and admit you ran a slightly slower race than last year. Why? Don't know and don't care. It doesn't change anything anyway, so let's move on now.

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    13. Says the guy who didn't run...

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    14. You would be wrong. I did run and I ran over 20 seconds faster this year than last.

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    15. Since you brought it up, I ran faster yesterday at Districts than I did at Paul Short and faster than last year at districts. So did the majority of my teammates. Just sayin'.

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    16. The weather was not a factor if you were in the middle of the pack. There were hundreds of people all around, so the wind would have almost no effect. However, if you were in the front, or running alone for portions of the race, it was very windy, which can be quite tiring, and can slow down people quite a bit. Also, fact of the matter is, it was warmer and more humid than last year. Some people like racing in warmer weather better, some don't, so it probably didn't effect the overall times in a significant way.

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    17. Nobody wanted the lead and the race went out tentative. There were 25 runners within 3 seconds of the leaders at the mile and the still didn't start to separate until the bridge at 1.5. It went out too slow, plain and simple.

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  4. Look at RJJL’s recent posts. After Chesmonts he addresses critics who said Knapp lost a step by pointing out that Knapp closed 20 seconds on Sappey from Carlisle to Chestmonts and if anything Knapp was gaining a step. He even went as far as to say Knapp was right where his coach expected him to be. Knapp beats Sappey today and takes 6th overall.

    Then in the D1 predictions thread he got 4 out of 5 teams for states, but has also said CBW was his spoiler pick which they turned out to be. He called CBE and Rustin his hard luck teams, correctly predicting CBE wouldn’t make it even with Brophy taking 1st and then Rustin being only an injury away from a shocking underdog. CBE misses by 9 points and Rustin’s top 4 run great and they probably would have made it if not for the injury to one of their top 5 a few weeks ago. Then Forrest gets into it with him and questioned his CRN 5th place pick (they finished 4th) and his saying Arita wasn’t a clear cut top 10. Arita barely finishes 9th by a lean and needed a great kick to move up from 13th late.

    But what’s really spooky is that he considered picking WCH to win it all but backed off due to their #5 issues and put them 3rd. They missed winning it all by only 9 points and finishing 3rd by only 9 points. He also said WCH had the best 1-4 and as it turns out WCH did have the best top 4, they all medaled. And then someone stepped up to bring in a better than expected 5th man.

    Who else would make these solid predictions all the time, particularly about Knapp and WCH and now the unknown West Chester Rustin school? Those rumors of RJJL being coach Kelly seem quite possible. Or maybe he’s just really lucky

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    1. I'm freaked out.

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    2. RJJL definitely has knowledge about Henderson that is scary accurate and has been for the last 3-ish years, but the top 5 teams for States wasn't that hard nor was the top 10 individuals this year. The talent was down as a whole this year (not saying bad, just not as good as last year. They're all still better than me at XC so...). I can say I did very little research to make my predictions and I picked 9-10 of the top 10 individuals and all 5 of the teams that made States. Not taking anything away from RJJL, Forrest, Chris, or anyone else that helps with this blog, they all do an amazing job and I don't think people fully understand the time commitment this blog is. I'm just saying it's nothing to go crazy about.

      MAJOR shout out to the guy that called me out on Sauer and said Hanna should be 10th. What happened? Sauer didn't do so hot and Hanna got 10th. You made me look straight foolish.

      Public apology to Brian Arita for saying I was expecting too much and ranking him too high. Second guy in a day to make me look foolish.

      Random thought: Is RJJL initials or does it stand for something? Like how RTJ is shortened for RunThrowJump.

      -RunThrowJump

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    3. I heard if you look at the letters RJJL through a prism it reads Kelly.

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    4. Kevin kelly does wear glasses....

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    5. ...and cue more twilight zone music...

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    6. Even mentioning that WCH might win Districts in his prediction seemed flat out crazy two days ago. And predicting CBE and Rustin the hard luck teams and now seeing how it played out for them was a good call. But other than that Etrains predictions were pretty impressive too though.

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  5. It's someone VERY close to Kelly.

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    1. Has anyone ever seen Coach Kelly and RJJL in the same room together? Huh??? I thought not.

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    2. rjjl is clearly jimmy hoffa. He was never killed and is a hardcore oa distance running fan.

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  6. Cue the twilight zone music....

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  7. Tony Russell said himself that RJJL was not Kelly, but that he had to be someone close because he " knew too much." Russell doesn't know who it is though.

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  8. Can't shake this feeling, but I am calling Kevin James or Jake Brophy pulling an upset on Colin at the state meet. I don't know why but that is my predicton.

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  9. I agree w/ whoever said Cr North is the new 2011 North Penn

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  10. What are the odds that Henderson wins it all?

    What are the odds that CRN wins it all?

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    1. Henderson 5/1
      CRN 25/1
      I'll start accepting wagers now

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    2. Immense amounts of currency on CRN not winning.

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  11. Amazing how close Henderson was to winning. If there fifth guy had run four or five seconds faster they win the district title again.

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  12. Forrest, Cummings, even, i want to see some individual and team rankings for states!

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  13. Hey Forrest you wanna do a fantasy draft for states again?

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