Forrest's Top 30

Hey guys, I've got overloaded with work the first few days this week, but on Thursday I'll come out with a comprehensive team race. My list goes up to 35 runners right now, but here is the top 30 and their explanations. PS this was written on Saturday evening.


1. Colin Abert (1) – 15:43 – I can’t see Abert losing this race and I can’t see him not breaking the CR. He’s just that good. He tied his course record from last season and honestly he ran a pretty poor race at states last season. Nobody can kick like Abert, as seen by his taking down of Wilson and James last season in the last 400m by 6/7 seconds. He loves to go out hard and the hills aren’t his favorite thing, but the young man is too good. That’s it.

2. Kevin James (2) – 15:49 – I think Kevin James has had one of the top years in PA very undercover. He placed second in 15:54 this past year at Foundation and ran 16:02 at last year’s state meet. He’s incredible on the hills and has had the most championship experience out of anyone in the state. He’s hungry for the win and if any senior has a chance to upset Abert it’s James. He also wants a team championship for his team and he’ll need to have the least amount of team points as possible. I think he’s just like Ross Wilson. You can make you future inferences on that and come to your own conclusions, and they’re probably true.

3. Andrew Marston (3) – 15:52 – Marston is my man when it comes to Hershey. He placed 9^th last season and he’s been running much faster this year. He had a tough day at Manhattan, but all other races show he’s got the talent to have a big day at Hershey. His strengths show off on the hills and I really think this’ll be his day.

4. Jake Brophy – 15:54 – As much as I want Kevin James to finally get a state title, I can’t really picture him winning this race, but Jake Brophy could very well do it. He even said in the interview afterward his District title he admitted he’s bad at hills (like we saw at Foundation), but he also said he felt great and had a lot left. I think he’s a lock for top 5 with his talent, but I’m not exactly sure where to place him. He’s an extraordinarily talented and could easily win this race as a junior. In my opinion he’s the biggest threat to Abert.

5. Zach Brehm (4) – 16:01 – Brehm always seems to show up at the XC state meet and I’d be absolutely shocked if he wasn’t the #1 guy from District 3 in this race. I don’t think he’s got the strength endurance to break 16 on this course however.

6. Casey Comber – 16:04 – Comber is a stud who was stuck in a ridiculously talented grade and will sadly probably never win a state title. I feel like he’s the Jeff Wiseman of this distance class. He’s raced really tough against Brophy two weekends in a row, but he doesn’t have what it takes to truly run with this top 5. That being said I think he’ll stick with them and place a very solid 6^th overall in this race.

7. Matt Mcgoey (5) – 16:07 – NA is looking like the top PA team right now and Mcgoey will need to have a big race for them to do well. NA runners haven’t placed in the top 10 since Ryan Gil won back in 2010, but the streak ends here. Mcgoey is a total stud and I have no doubt he’ll mix it up with the best at Hershey

8. Aaron Gebhart – 16:08 – Gebhart just won a District title and did it from the back running a very smart race and finishing in 16:11. I think he has another successful day despite the tough hills at Hershey and he finishes close behind Casey Comber for the second year in a row.

9. Sam Webb – 16:10 – Webb’s team isn’t with him this year, but I think he’ll finally crack into the top 10 after a finishing 18^th and 12^th the past two seasons. His 15:26 on a slower day than last year at Lehigh shows he’s continued to get strong and we all know the kid is a gamer.

10. Hunter Wharrey (6) – 16:13 – Wharrey has been running so strong all season and keeping as close to Mcgoey as possible. 11^th might be a bit high for him, but I’ve got big hopes for this team and I think he’ll really show up big time for them. Once Mcgoey has taken off in recent races he’s trailed off slightly, but with some competition at the end of the race for him finally he’ll really be able to push to the finish.

11. Zach Seiger – 16:14 – As we all know I’m a huge fan of Zach Seiger’s. The junior should be the second finisher from his class behind Brophy no doubt in my mind, but he’s going to have his hands full with the guy right below him, Kevin Lapsansky.

12. Paul Power – 15:55 – I honestly have no idea what to do with Power. He has run 15:50 on this course at Foundation and that was his big breakout race. We all knew his name, he medaled last XC season, but afterwards he’s really underwhelmed with two solid, but not impressive times at Lehigh. It’s a flat course, but he’s been outkicked handily by 6 runners there now and not all of whom a big flat course runners (Marston is a perfect example). Power could very easily take Hershey to task once again and go under 15:45 and really challenge Abert, but I’m going with the body of work this season for him and I can’t get myself to put him in the top 10.

13. Kevin Lapsansky (7) – 16:15 – The Easton team will need two medalists for them to really pull through and get the minimal amount of points. I think that combined he and Abert will pull 10 or less points for this Easton team.

14. Ryan James (8) – 16:16 – Speaking of runners who will need to get points for a team, Ryan James will need to do big things for O’Hara to claim victory here. I think he’ll be the first sophomore medalists in AAA. His team will really need him to place in the top 15 to 20 if they want to win.

15. Alex Knapp (9) – 16:18 – Henderson is going to need a big day out of Knapp. He’s their front man and we all know they’re focusing to peak at the state meet. I think last week was just a trial run for a lot of Henderson’s squad and Knapp has shown he can race big at Hershey. He medaled last season and I think he’ll bring his experience to this meet as well. There is even slight potential he makes it into the top 12.

16. Brad Foust – 16:20 – Foust placed 20^th here last season and he just barely lost to Milligan in a tight race, which is to be expected with Milligan’s speed. Foust has proved he knows how to navigate the hills of Hershey and I have no doubt we’ll see a big race from him this weekend.

17. Jake Susalla – 16:21 – Susalla has had an undercover killer season and I think he’s going to have a really big race at Hershey. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were in the top 15. Biggest race: 3^rd at WPIALs, but a close second in terms of big races was winning the Grove City invitational as a non-Grove City runner.

18. Aiden Demko – 16:24 – He didn’t have a massively impressive race at District 3 and that’s one of the main reasons I think he’ll do well at states. He had top 4 potential and was a very solid 8^th place. His strong 15:40 at Paul Short gets him some extra praise here as well. Sadly his team isn’t racing, but I think he’ll represent Hershey strongly.

19. Brian Arita – 16:25 (10) – He showed me a text I sent him in early August saying that I thought he would be 9^th at Districts and would be the 7^th finisher from District one at the state meet. My previous prediction was correct and I’m confident in this pick. Last week I was a bit early with him beating out Sappey and Diestelow, but I think he’ll have it this weekend. The hills work to his advantage and I’m generally excited to see him kill it.

20. Henry Sappey (11) – 16:26 – Sappey will only get taken down by Arita in the final meters and he’s been very solid all season and I think he’s a lock to get a medal. The Chesmont League winner will represent everyone well and he’ll be a great low stick for DTW.

21. Ethan Linderman 16:30 (12) – Linderman was fairly silent all season, but the few times he ran were impressive including top 5 finishes at RW&B and WPIALs. He’ll be glad to have his team at this meet and it will really push him to have another great finish. Some guys really talked him up before the season and he’s lived up to the hype.

22. Andrew Hanna – 16:32 – Hanna has raced so tough this season and he hasn’t slowed down. CRS hasn’t historically at the state meet, but Hanna has been consistently great and he ran well last year at Hershey. His toughness pays off here for a medal.

23. Alex Milligan – 16:34 (13) – I’m not totally solid on this pick just yet, but he was the district champion. He beat Foust on his speed, which is why I’ve got Foust higher on the hills and with a pack of guys to run with. I think this SC team will scare some people and he’ll lead them well. He is really taking off of Cather and that benefits him here.

24. Yahya Soliman –16:36 (14) – I’m a big fan of this pick. There will be two sophomore medalists in this race. I’ve got Ryan James as a lock and Soliman is my pick of a variety of strong sophomores who could be in this slot (Nathan Henderson, Connor McMenamin are examples), but here me out. I feel as though he tempo’d Districts and he’s why: He ran between the two of his teammates who were in the 3 and 5 spots. I think he just was helping them place well and make it to the state meet. I think it was a great coaching move and it will pay off with Soliman having a big race like Paul Shot. I also expect big things from this Cumberland Valley teams. I’m going to believe in District 3 this year.

25. Quinn Wasko – 16:37 (15) – Yes, the Paul Short comparison continues here with Wasko finishing right behind Soliman at States. Watching them at that race was very impressive and they looked so composed with 300m to go. Wasko has been one of the most consistent D3 runners this year and he reminds me of Cole Nissley.  It pays off for a medal.

26. Eric Diestelow – 16:38 – I know I’m going to get attacked for this from all the Diestelow fans, and I’m pretty sure Etrain will have him in his top 25, but I just think Diestelow’s bad luck will continue at the state meet. He got the best of Arita this weekend, but I don’t think it will happen again, and I know I’m going to get in trouble for it. He’s a great runner, but I don’t think he’s going to get a medal in this race, but hey, maybe this will be the motivation that will get him that last spot. If he does place I could very well place 23^rd and this be Milligan’s spot. He’s the Mac Emery of this class.

27. Jacob Heinauer –16:38 – Another big medal hopefully senior is Heinauer. He’s had some great races early in the season, but hasn’t been overly impressive of late. He’ll just miss out like Francis Ferruzzi did two years ago. (sorry for the reference Etrain!)

28. Nathan Henderson – 16:39 – He’s one of the big sophomore medal hopeful’s, but I think he’ll land as the Aaron Gebhart here. He reminds me a lot of Gebhart (and hey I’m on a 2012 roll aren’t I?) in how he runs. He is sticking with the top groups and finishing very well in the big time races. This sophomore gets a big shout out here. But if Soliman doesn’t medal Henderson will be the sophomore who is there and honestly could finish as high as 15^th.

29. Dan Quigley – 16:41 – His team hasn’t race well all season due to a variety of reasons, but Quigley has been so consistent. He’s got a shot to medal no question, but I think he just falls short in this race, but still gets top 30.

30. Connor McMenamin – 16:41 – McMenamin has been unreal this year. I totally missed him last year and I don’t know how. He ran 9:50 as a freshman on the track for 3200 and he hasn’t shied away from any competition this season and has held on to strong places and broke 16 this past weekend at Leigh.

--ForrestCRN